[Ford Prefect]

I think when you compare your theories on this issue with mine, it becomes clear that you're being totally unrealistic.

[Flipside]

Or you are, depends on the point of view really

Let's hear the theory and see what becomes clear

[Ford Prefect]

You saw mine already.

[Flipside]

Ah yes, the clone wars!

Yep, actually, I wouldn't raise both eyebrows if it did happen to be honest

[Rictor]

The Randomness strikes again.



not that its my intention to derail the thread.

[Ace]

Originally posted by Flipside
I'm going to do a Nostradamus here, and try to predict what is going to happen in the next 120 years if things go on this way, I've worded it rather radically, but I'm not trying to start a flamewar, just trying to put it directly

Within 20 years : Regardless of which party gets into power, I predict an increase in secularism and religious fervour. I see an increase in religion and race related violence.

Within 50 years : Oil consumption and water demand at an all-time high, people suddenly start realising that the original Oil-supply quotes were assuming that the population would not increase by over 50% in the next 20 years. Energy demand will become a matter of War once again, as areas of America tended by Oil-based generators suffer from blackouts. Hydrogen and Solar power which was left far too late, can only provide a tiny fraction of the National Grid, and generators cannot be replaced fast enough due to economy problems caused by the Oil Crisis.

Within 100 years : Some Southern states, seeing themselves as 'Christian States' start to demand a church-led leadership which would replace a Washington-Based leadership, effectively expressing a wish to become like the Vatican, a country of their own accord. This will not be granted, but the cracks will start to show by now.

Within 130 years, the massive debt from obtaining Oil and other Energy finally backlashes and the economy collapses, thousands die from starvation and violence and America is left with a humanitarian crisis.

If you think I am overplaying this, read the ending of just about every major empire, corruption seeps in at the top, Wars are fought for land/gold whatever the local demand is at the time. Eventually as people turn more and more to religion to fulfill themselves, in many cases certain 'home' states will start to cause trouble, this is usually the first sign that things are terribly wrong. As the cycle of 'gain over relations' continues, the empire eventually collapses in on itself as it finds out it theres nothing more it can take and can no longer afford to take anything else.

From Rome to Russia, I think pretty much every one of them has gone the same way I hope it doesn't to be honest, it would be a terrible disaster, but unless the people in power can see beyond their own bank accounts, I can honestly see things starting to go this way.

Accelerate your timescale. Have energy consumption increase exponentially with countries such as India and China developing faster, the US and Europe (especially eastern) consuming more resources and the secularism v.s. religiosity coming to a head quicker due to reactionaries going to the extreme due to fear of a loss of influence. (i.e. greens and neo-cons both deep-down feeling obsolete)

Imagine a debate between Kazan and Liberator, but on a nation-state scale.

On average, most people in the big powers of the world won't feel a thing other than more ideological splintering. The class divide won't seem bigger on the surface (i.e. everyone has basic necessities and their consumer crap made in foreign countries), but it will be. Developing nations are going to have an even harder time though...

Effectively, how things are now but taken to the next level.

The wildcard is going to be how globalization due to the internet and technology influences society. Our current generation (20 year olds and under) will be the first where this is going to be a major thing, but our kids are where this is going to really become a major factor. The class system could easily have a shaking up with people who can afford/use technology v.s. those who cannot even more than it already is. (i.e. current mass media is pretty lowest common demoninator, that's changing with cellphones, internet, etc. it's going to become a new set of "haves" and "have nots" based on this)

[Rictor]

again, thats being overly dramatic IMHO.

1) Secularism is on the rise in all Western industrial nations, across the board. This includes all of Europe, North America, East Asia, Russia, Japan etc. What once used to be considered radical left-wing politics - environmentalism, gay marriage, antiwar etc - is now coming into the mainstream. Religion is on its way out, and even the small group of fundamentalissts you're bound to have, even they are becoming slighty more liberal by degrees. South America, though religious, has never been a hotbed for fundamentalism, quite the opposite, the Church has been on the forefront of the progressive and anti-imperial movement. Africa is not terribly religious, their conflict are more ethnic. And even the Muslim world (Iran, Saudi Arabia etc) are getting small doses of secularism. I think that your perception of this may be a bit skewed, considering that American Christian fundamentalists are among the craziest mofos in the Christian world.

2) Yes, the energy will start running low. But seriously, I can't imagine certain powers (such as China, Japan or the EU) being so short-sighted as to not see the coming problem. Uncle Sam controls the oil, or alternately the Saudis and Russians do, which means that certain countries are going to have to figure something out if they want to meet their rising energy demands. China for example could pull it off beautifully, consiodering how centralized the government is. I think we're going to see some serious development and hopefully implementation, of reusable energy.

But I think the real resource that everyone will be after is water.

3) The current form of global integration, Globalization with a capital G, or neo-liberalism if you will, is meeting with resistance across the world. Look, even in Europe and North America, the places that have benefited the most and lost the least, even there is the opposition almost universal. I linked a while ago to a BBC poll that showed that the average BCC viewer sees Globalization as the single biggest threat to world peace and prosperity, more than terrorism. This is signifcant, since your normal BBC viewer is not very radical.

In South America, where globalization has really hurt people the worst, there is a growing resistance movement. Thats one of the reasons why Chavez is so important. His actions will likely decide the future for this movement. Brazil, Venezuela and Argentina, they have all elected anti-Global governments (note to Kazan, if I much as hear a peep out of you...). Mexico and Bolivia look like they're going to reach critical mass withtin the next few years. The tremendous inequality and suffering that neo-liberalism has caused, thats sparking a very real and significant backlash.

4) Across the board, people have greater and quicker access to alternatve viewpoints. Even in China, the government is being forced to loosen the grip of censorship. And with more exposure to media and greater education comes great political and social awareness. And with education and media decenralization comes a shift left-ward.

Its sounds cliched, but you know the advantages of the Internet. And instead of creating a divide among people, I think that as more people get it, it will create greater unity.

------

you get the idea...

[vyper]

(1) The US is in decline, politically and economically - this is just the first visible steps.
(2) The UK is going through our typical - we liked this government for a while and said everything was gonna be better, but now we need someone new (I give Tony another term again, and he's gonna be out like Thatcher was).  We do this for some reason. We seem to survive nonetheless. God bless civil servants.
(3) The European Union seems to think it can take the crown of world superpower when America finally deflates. I doubt it, since the EU is too corrupt now, let alone once it tried to expand it's influence around the globe.
(4) China should be laughing.

[01010]

I think someone should make a soap opera and base all the characters on countries then translate current world affairs into a script for a half hour nightly programme. I don't know what it would be called or how it would work but thats what I want to see.

[Rictor]

"Oh Jacquette, how could you abandon me when I needed you most?"

"Get your hands off me Sam, I'm with Hans now. You were too violent for me, I could never live that life. I have new friends now, so stay away!"

"Is that the way its gonna be then? You left me for those Eurotrash snobs? Fine, have it your way. But don't think I won't tell everyone what a ***** you are."

"Oh please, everyone knows you don't have any friends Sam, except that sniveling little brown-nose Tony. You never made me feel appreaciated and needed. We always went where you wanted to go. And when I didn't feel like going, you just went without me! Its always me, me, me! "

"C'mon baby, we can work things out. I can change! Just give me a few months to get me act together; 'till Novermber."

"No Sam, I'm leaving you and thats that! Hans knows how to treat me right. Goodbye Sam."

[01010]

Awesome. That's EXACTLY what I'm talking about dude.

[Ford Prefect]

Secularism is on the rise in all Western industrial nations, across the board. This includes all of Europe, North America, East Asia, Russia, Japan etc. What once used to be considered radical left-wing politics - environmentalism, gay marriage, antiwar etc - is now coming into the mainstream. Religion is on its way out, and even the small group of fundamentalissts you're bound to have, even they are becoming slighty more liberal by degrees. South America, though religious, has never been a hotbed for fundamentalism, quite the opposite, the Church has been on the forefront of the progressive and anti-imperial movement. Africa is not terribly religious, their conflict are more ethnic. And even the Muslim world (Iran, Saudi Arabia etc) are getting small doses of secularism. I think that your perception of this may be a bit skewed, considering that American Christian fundamentalists are among the craziest mofos in the Christian world.

It was actually my understanding that ultra-conservative Evangelical Christianity was actually on the rise in much of the third world, including Africa and Latin America.

[Flipside]

Well,  I think radical Christianity is trying to form a power base in South America to be honest, just as radical Muslims use the poor and ignorant as their cannon fodder to achieve their goals, so does radical Christianity. It's a bit of a race against time I think, Education vs Indoctrination

[Black Wolf]

Originally posted by Flipside

Within 130 years, the massive debt from obtaining Oil and other Energy finally backlashes and the economy collapses, thousands die from starvation and violence and America is left with a humanitarian crisis.
 

Leaving the world ripe for takeover by the apes!

[Flipside]

Muahahahahahaha!!

[Rictor]

I'm not sure about Africa, but regarding Latin America, from what I've read the church has usually been on the side of the poor and oppressed, much to the dislike of the Vatican. You shouldn't mistake faith for fanatacism. At the risk of making some sweeping generalizations, I'de say that faith is alive and well in South America, but not in a negative sense. It seems to me that the Christian Right in America is a rather repressive and backwards model, built on strict adherance to legalisms, much like Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia. Its important to note that there are other models for Christianity, those built not on the letter of the law but on the intent. To use the Muslim analogy again, this would be equivalent to the Sufis. I hope I'm getting my point across, I don't know how clear that all was.

If you have some articles or whatnot regarding this, I'de love to read them.

[Flipside]

I don't I'm afraid Rictor, a lot of this is based on personal opinion and just the impression I get from current world status, I may very well be entirely wrong about some things, that's why I like places like this, it helps me get rid of those mis-understandings

I suppose part of me hopes that someone will come along and prove that I'm being too pessimistic about things

It's interesting that Islam has almost as many schisms as Christianity

[WMCoolmon]

WHO are the Torries and Labour?

[Flipside]

Tories = British Slang for Conservatives, where in power for a long time, sold off most of our public interests and generally screwed up the economy for personal gain.

Labour = their alleged 'opposing' party, supposedly to represent the Unions and the 'Working classes' though the two pretty much share the same policies. Currently in power wi th Tony Blair at their head

[WMCoolmon]

Ah, thanks.