[ZylonBane]

Originally posted by Kosh
I do think it would be ironic if it turned an smacked New Orleans.

Alanis' work here is done.

[WeatherOp]

Originally posted by Kosh



Don't count on that too much. It probably will weaken somewhat when it hits the Yucetan, but it goes back over warm water after that. It probably will get it's strength back.


I do think it would be ironic if it turned an smacked New Orleans.

Yes, it should weaken before it hits Florida, not because of the Yucetan, but because of the high level Sheer that is suposed to come down with a cold front, if it don't, Florida is in deep trouble.

And no, it will not hit NO, the same front will sweep it out across Florida, and then, maybe curve it back up the US coast hitting New England.

[Kosh]

I have a question, are you a meteorologist or something?

[WeatherOp]

Originally posted by Kosh
I have a question, are you a meteorologist or something?

No, not yet anyways.

[General Freak]

She's moving reaaally slowly...what would be a normal speed for such a hurricane?

[WeatherOp]

Originally posted by General Freak
She's moving reaaally slowly...what would be a normal speed for such a hurricane?

It can depend, Strength has very little to do with speed, it can range from stationary to 60mph, Allthough you want find many Cat.5s doin more than 20mph, Allthough Andrew was the exception.

[Mongoose]

From what I've heard, it's supposed to drop to a Cat. 2 before hitting Flordia.  Still, long-range reports are inaccurate, and in any case, this thing is still bad news.  I just can't believe how quickly it intensified.

[Kosh]

Do you still say there is nothing to global warming?

[WeatherOp]

Originally posted by Kosh
Do you still say there is nothing to global warming?

No, in fact I never said that, What I said is that you can't get me to belive the "Ooo no, the whole Earth is warming so quick, and it's gonna cause all these bad things, so everyone get Bush cause it's his fault" mess the media is saying. Could the Earth be warming, yes, but I take a neutral stand on it right now.


Did GB cause this year's and last year's hurricane action? No, even right now Wilma is sitting over warm water that is average for this time of year.

Then what caused these 3 Cat.5s this year? Simple, it was a mixture of  things. Normal water temps, maybe above avg in some places, but that didn't cause it.

No, sheer, normally where Wilma is sitting, strong westerlies would tear everything apart, however none is present.

And no dry air, probley the most dangrous thing a Hurricane can encounter, in fact it stripped Hurricane Lili a few years back, from a Cat.4 to a Cat.1 in 3 or 4 hours. Also got Frances last years from a Cat.4 to a Weak Cat.2 in under 6 hours.

All the Cat.5s we have had this year, has had perfect conditions to be what they became. Even with the  warmest water,  a Tropical Depression won't form if High level sheer is strong, of Dry air is present, or the Tropical Heat potential of the water is low.

The water maybe over 90 degrees, but if Tropical Heat potential is low, the storm will weaken once it tapps that shallow water, thats how Rita weakened, it ran over and tapped the warm, but shallow water of the GOM and ran out of fuel.

[Mongoose]

Originally posted by Kosh
Do you still say there is nothing to global warming?

As many experts have said, one or two active hurricane seasons do not provide any quantitiative evidence for how pervasive global warming is.  Hurricanes tend to occur in cycles; a few very active seasons can be followed by a few that have much lower activity than average.  I believe I heard something about a 30-year cycle once, but don't quote me on that.  At any rate, the fact that we've had a few monster hurricanes this year shouldn't cause you to immediately start screaming "Global warming!!1!1"  As WeatherOp said, each of these storms came about by the perfect combination of all of the necessary elements, and this combination occurring all at once is really nothing more than random chance.  Real science isn't based on coincidences; it stems from verifiable observations over significant periods of time.  Now, if we see hurricane seasons like this one for the next ten or fifteen years in a row, I'd have to say that that would be some pretty damning evidence that something's up with the Earth's climate, but the fact remains that we haven't seen that yet. This season could easily be a fluke and nothing more.

[StratComm]

That's the most arrogant statement I've seen in a while.  While I do agree that an active hurricane season in and of itself is not conclusive evidence of global warming, that doesn't mean that the overwhelming wealth of information we have supporting a warming trend is invalid.  This is just one piece of the puzzle, so to speak.  It also doesn't mean that other weather pattern changes resulting from global warming were not factors in making the conditions more favorable to these storms forming.  Are humans directly responsible for the changes we're seeing in our weather?  Absolutely.  How much is still being debated in scientific circles (the increase in the sun's temperature may be effecting global temperatures by as much as 30% of what we're observing overall, for example) the fact of the matter is human interaction with the environment is producing some extremely serious effects.

[WeatherOp]

Originally posted by Mongoose

As many experts have said, one or two active hurricane seasons do not provide any quantitiative evidence for how pervasive global warming is.  Hurricanes tend to occur in cycles; a few very active seasons can be followed by a few that have much lower activity than average.  I believe I heard something about a 30-year cycle once, but don't quote me on that.  At any rate, the fact that we've had a few monster hurricanes this year shouldn't cause you to immediately start screaming "Global warming!!1!1"  As WeatherOp said, each of these storms came about by the perfect combination of all of the necessary elements, and this combination occurring all at once is really nothing more than random chance.  Real science isn't based on coincidences; it stems from verifiable observations over significant periods of time.  Now, if we see hurricane seasons like this one for the next ten or fifteen years in a row, I'd have to say that that would be some pretty damning evidence that something's up with the Earth's climate, but the fact remains that we haven't seen that yet. This season could easily be a fluke and nothing more.

uum, Mongoose, were gonna see another 15-20 years of these types of Hurricane seasons, they said we have just entered the cycle the past few years. And then we will see 15-30 years of very little activity.

The reason these years have seams so odd, is that like I said before in another thread, we've just discovered the tech 30-40 years ago, so anything before 1961, they have to guess at how many hurricanes there was and the intensity, the record we tied this year, was set in 1931, so we have no information to confirm or disprove that.

[Kosh]

Appearently nobody seemed to notice the ":p", indicating sarcasm.

[aldo_14]

Originally posted by Mongoose

As many experts have said, one or two active hurricane seasons do not provide any quantitiative evidence for how pervasive global warming is.  Hurricanes tend to occur in cycles; a few very active seasons can be followed by a few that have much lower activity than average.  I believe I heard something about a 30-year cycle once, but don't quote me on that.  At any rate, the fact that we've had a few monster hurricanes this year shouldn't cause you to immediately start screaming "Global warming!!1!1"  As WeatherOp said, each of these storms came about by the perfect combination of all of the necessary elements, and this combination occurring all at once is really nothing more than random chance.  Real science isn't based on coincidences; it stems from verifiable observations over significant periods of time.  Now, if we see hurricane seasons like this one for the next ten or fifteen years in a row, I'd have to say that that would be some pretty damning evidence that something's up with the Earth's climate, but the fact remains that we haven't seen that yet. This season could easily be a fluke and nothing more.

From what I recall, the theory being made RE: cycles was that frequency of hurricanes was cyclical, but it was an increasing average strength that could be linked (potentially; this is still a developing theory of course) to the warming of the ocean surface.

In terms of overally climatology; to put it simply, if you wait 10-15 years to see if somethings wrong, and there is something wrong, by that stage we are all, deeply, deeply ****ed.  And there is strong evidence, even excluding hurricanes of ecological damage and growing temperatures (such as melting permafrost in Siberia).

[ShadowWolf_IH]

i have an uneducated guess........

The earth's climate has always been somewhat fragile.  i do believe that global warming happens, but not that ti alone can account for what we are seeing.  Remember last december?  the earth took such a hit (earthquake) that we now wobble?  Has anyone considered the possibility that the wobble could partiallyaccount for some of this?  it would seem to me that ANY shift in the earth's tilt would raise some havoc with weather patterns, and when we couple this with global warming....we see the kinds of killer storms that we are seeing now.

Not really even a guess, but something worth thinking about.

[WeatherOp]

Originally posted by ShadowWolf_IH
i have an uneducated guess........

The earth's climate has always been somewhat fragile.  i do believe that global warming happens, but not that ti alone can account for what we are seeing.  Remember last december?  the earth took such a hit (earthquake) that we now wobble?  Has anyone considered the possibility that the wobble could partiallyaccount for some of this?  it would seem to me that ANY shift in the earth's tilt would raise some havoc with weather patterns, and when we couple this with global warming....we see the kinds of killer storms that we are seeing now.

Not really even a guess, but something worth thinking about.

Umm, I really would doubt that a single earthquake could cause a tilt in the Earth.

[Kosh]

Well, he DID say it was an uneducated guess.

[ShadowWolf_IH]

The earthquake in december that caused the massive tsunami did in fact cause a wobble in the earth's tilt.

[Fenrir]

It didn't exactly tilt, but it altered the secondary tilt slightly. You know how when you spin something and the axis of rotation is itself rotating or wobbling? The earthquake altered that slightly, as well as speeding up the earth's rotation a few miliseconds. Who knows if that means anything climate wise, as there have been worse geologic disturbances in the past that have no doubt had similar effects. We don't have anything to compare it to.

[Kosh]

.........

I'm still a little skeptical. Any links to that?