[WeatherOp]

It's possiblity that it hits Mexico and weakens before hitting Florida, however I'm not convinced, it looks as tho it's turned north and will is Mexico.

[Mongoose]

Originally posted by aldo_14


Um... the whole point is stopping would be to prevent an irreversible (in our lifetimes) climatic change.  I believe it's been predicted that could occur within 10-15 years, even assuming other contributing events (release of gas from frozen peat) don't happen.  

Besides which, what you're implying is that it's not even worth bothering taking precautions or considering it, because we're all doomed anyway.  Which, to me, is a mite daft and short-sighted.

That's not what I was implying at all.  In fact, I think we're far from doomed.  I just don't buy the whole "irreversible change" theory.  I believe that the Earth's overall temperature has increased over the last 150 years, I believe that this increase has accelerated over the past 30, and I believe that human activities make, at the very least, a small contribution to this change, but what I don't believe is that global warming is the doomsday scenario that some very vocal people are saying it will be.  I sense more than a little media sensationalism and not a lot of hard science in claims like that.  That 10-15 years figure is definitely greatly exaggerated; my thermodynamics professor just did a presentation on the CO2 cycle, and the expected rise in global temperature over the next 50 years or so isn't any more than 2 degrees Celsius.  I'd hardly call that "irreversible."  As a comparison point to human activity, consider the fact that a large-scale volcanic eruption releases more CO2 into the atmosphere than human activity has ever managed.  Last time I checked, though, we're all still here.  That's all I wanted to say about this, seeing as how there was a recent discussion about it, and I'd rather not start a flamewar in an unrelated thread.

To anyone out there in the Yucatan/southern Florida, good luck, and stay safe.

[karajorma]

Your thermodynamics professor is obviously not current in his climatology. Did he include the effects of methane hydrate in his explaination? Did he take global dimming into account?

As for the volcanic erruption claim, if he said that disregard everything he ever says about climatology ever again as it's quite clear he doesn't know jack **** about it.

1)  While volcanoes do release massive amounts of CO2 they also release massive amounts of sulphur dioxide which have a cooling effect which more than cancels out the effect of CO2
2) Recent studies have shown that the sulphur aerosols actually increase the intake of CO2 by plants worldwide.
3) Most importantly though the claim that volcanoes release more CO2 than humans could do is bollocks of the higest order.

Volcanoes release 130 - 230 million tonnes of CO2 a year into the atmosphere on average. Emissions by human sources amount to 22 billion tonnes. [ Source ]

Any fool can see which number is bigger so quite why people keep claiming that volcanoes put out more CO2 without bothering to do some basic research on the net is quite beyond me.

[Falcon]

Hmmmm maybe it's time to leave Port Charlotte....

[WeatherOp]

Originally posted by Falcon
Hmmmm maybe it's time to leave Port Charlotte....

YA THINK??? JK, just pay attention to your local EMA, and hurrciane advisories. They predict that Wilma will move into Mexico and weaken , but with all the other predictions about this storm, take with some salt.

[Mongoose]

Just one last post to set the record straight, and then I'm dropping the subject.  My thermodynamics professor didn't mention volcanoes at all; what I said was a statistic that I had heard referenced elsewhere.  For all I know, they were talking about a certain super-eruption in the past, like the event that created the Yellowstone calderra; I don't really have any information.  If it was incorrect, then I apologize for using it.  He also didn't mention global dimming or methane hydrate in his discussion; it was was more of a cursory overview of the global carbon dioxide cycle and recent climactic changes that wasn't part of the actual curriculum of the class.  From what I understand, global dimming really isn't widely understood as of right now, and we're not sure of all of the specifics about how/when methane hydrate could be released; his talk was based on statistics relating to climactic data.  (Interestingly enough, when Googling about for information on methane hydrate, I found several sources suggesting that there are some who are trying to determine how it could possibly be mined as an energy source.)  At any rate, that's the last word for me on the matter.

[WMCoolmon]

I actually recognized the reference of this thread.

I'm getting old.

Damn. I just said 'I'm getting old'.

I'm getting old...

[karajorma]

Originally posted by Mongoose
Just one last post to set the record straight, and then I'm dropping the subject.  My thermodynamics professor didn't mention volcanoes at all; what I said was a statistic that I had heard referenced elsewhere.  For all I know, they were talking about a certain super-eruption in the past, like the event that created the Yellowstone calderra; I don't really have any information.  If it was incorrect, then I apologize for using it.

It's incorrect. The last supervolcanic erruption actually did come quite close to wiping us out but it was because the world got too cold not too warm.

It's basically the same thing that causes a nuclear winter. Clouds of soot block out the sun and everything gets colder as a result.

Originally posted by Mongoose
He also didn't mention global dimming or methane hydrate in his discussion; it was was more of a cursory overview of the global carbon dioxide cycle and recent climactic changes that wasn't part of the actual curriculum of the class.  

Then he's missing a rather major part of the equation there. Global dimming is the main reason why we haven't seen much sharper temperature rises.  

Originally posted by Mongoose
From what I understand, global dimming really isn't widely understood as of right now, and we're not sure of all of the specifics about how/when methane hydrate could be released; his talk was based on statistics relating to climactic data.

Global dimming is relatively new as a term but the science behind it is pretty old. We've known for ages that particulate matter could block out the sun and make the world colder. It's simply that no one had realised how big an effect this was still having now.

[WeatherOp]

Mexico is getting shreaded right now, as Wilma has stalled of shore, but it is close enough to put half of it's eyewall on shore. Those poor people.

[aldo_14]

Originally posted by karajorma


It's incorrect. The last supervolcanic erruption actually did come quite close to wiping us out but it was because the world got too cold not too warm.

It's basically the same thing that causes a nuclear winter. Clouds of soot block out the sun and everything gets colder as a result.

Yeah, the Toba supervolcano 74,000 years ago in Sumatra.  It's believed it wiped out all but a few thousand people; it's believed to have caused between 3-4C cooling.  Apparently, Toba was IE7 on the 0-8 eruption scale.  Yellowstones last eruption, 2.1 million years ago is classed as an IE8 - ten times that of Toba.  

Scary stuff, especially as it's been calculated Yellowstone erupts in 600,000 year cycles and thus could be 'due' (in a geological timescale, which could mean decades, centuries or longer from now).  Assuming the cycle is a constant one.

Originally posted by karajorma


Then he's missing a rather major part of the equation there. Global dimming is the main reason why we haven't seen much sharper temperature rises.  

Global dimming is relatively new as a term but the science behind it is pretty old. We've known for ages that particulate matter could block out the sun and make the world colder. It's simply that no one had realised how big an effect this was still having now.

Just an example of global dimmings effects, IIRc the trails of air traffic have a measurable affect.  When all air traffic was grounded at 9/11 - the only time this experiment could be carried out - and air contrails dissappeared, the average cold/hot variation in temperature in the US rose by 1.1C.  (I've read 5 degrees in heavy air traffic regions, but that didn't have F/C given)

Global dimming is, I think, something that has been neglected in media and educational coverage; I only read of (the details of) it fairly recently.  From what I know, the rate of increase in global temperature is less than expected from the rise in greenhouse gases - global dimming is the explanation, and it means we (well, some people) probably have been underestimating the problem significantly.

[Jetmech Jr.]

Originally posted by WeatherOp
Mexico is getting shreaded right now, as Wilma has stalled of shore, but it is close enough to put half of it's eyewall on shore. Those poor people.

Wow, you just put a fairy-tale spin on everything, don't ya .

[.::Tin Can::.]

Well, they said it's expected to get fairly small when it gets there, the only problem being that it is just too damn slow, so it'll sit over land longer than normal hurricanes.

[Sandwich]

Just heard about a ranger telling people in a trailer park in the Florida Keys to evacuate, but they refused. So then he told them fine, but go get a permanent marker and write your name and social security number on your forehead, arm, and leg, so that we can identify your bodies when this is over.

They left.

[TrashMan]

fear is a potent weapon.....

EDIT:
while it's is unclear exactly at what point things would become irreversalbe (technology has gone a lonbg way and humanity might be capable of cooling the Earth a bit), but the problem is by the time the damage is repaired (IF it can be repaired at all that is) thousands and thousands of people will die due to more violent climate changes...not to mention entire plant and animal species will be gone forever - and that's something you can't repair.

the problem is that the consuquences and damage a global climate change and pollution can do are fa bigger and broader than most people think.

[karajorma]

By irreversable they simply mean that cutting man made CO2 releases would do nothing to stop the rise in temperature because other natural processes (methane hydrate release, less reflection from the polar ice caps etc) would already be large enough to continue the global warming trend.

Of course mankind can take steps to cancel out global warming even after that point has been reached. Planting enormous numbers of trees and then burying the ful grown ones would remove huge quanities of greenhouse gases. Building a giant mirror in space to make sure less light reached Earth is another.

The problem is that no one thinks that it's economical to do that now. Once the trend has become irreversable they'll be even more greenhouses gases to remove so it will be harder.

[WeatherOp]

Wilma has now moved into the GOM, serveral sources say, that of villages are gone, and Cozumel is heavily damaged.

Wilma will countinue to move over water, and most likely will restrengthen, possibly reaching Cat.4 status, before possibly weakening to Cat.2 or Cat.3 before landfall in Florida.

[Sandwich]

GOM?

*should probably Google it*

EDIT: Duh. Gulf of Mexico.

[WeatherOp]

Wilma is heading towards Florida at over 15mph. It's winds have rose to 110mph, making Wilma a Strong Cat.2 hurricane. It is expected for Wilma to easily become a Cat.3, or possibly more. Before it slams Florida.


As I have been afaid of, the sheer that hey forecasted never did come to pass. And acording to sources, only 20% of the keys 78,000 residents have evacuated. This has the makings of another Disaster.

[WeatherOp]

Wilma slams into Florida as a strong Ca.t3 hurricane with winds over 125mph. They are reporting of damage in eastern Florida, and of power outages. More into soon.

[aldo_14]

Originally posted by WeatherOp

 And acording to sources, only 20% of the keys 78,000 residents have evacuated. This has the makings of another Disaster.

Have to say,those who wilfully ignored mandatory evacuation notices (rather than those who for various reasons were unable to evacuate, etc) were kind of asking for it.