[Kazan]

Billmon: Some Republican strategists are increasingly upset with what they consider the overconfidence of President Bush and his senior advisers about the midterm elections November 7 — a concern aggravated by the president's news conference this week. "They aren't even planning for if they lose," says a GOP insider who informally counsels the West Wing.

Digby: The aircraft carrier Eisenhower, accompanied by the guided-missile cruiser USS Anzio, guided-missile destroyer USS Ramage, guided-missile destroyer USS Mason and the fast-attack submarine USS Newport News, is, as I write, making its way to the Straits of Hormuz off Iran. The ships will be in place to strike Iran by the end of the month. It may be a bluff. It may be a feint. It may be a simple show of American power. But I doubt it.

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2006/10/15/uss-eisenhower-and-iran/


Ships
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) a Nimitz-class supercarrier (largest naval vessel class ever constructed [by displacement])
USS Anzio (CG-68) a Ticonderoga class cruiser
USS Ramage (DDG-61) a Arleigh Burke class destroyer
USS Mason (DDG-87) (same class as Rampage)
USS Newport News (SSN-750) a Los Angeles-class submarine

[redsniper]

Grrrrrr, If they keep spreading the military out they'll have to bring back the draft, and if they do that I'll have to go to war, and I DON'T WANT TO! I guess I'll just have to go get Canadian citizenship... or go to jail maybe. What's the sentence for draft dodging or just refusing to go?

[Kazan]

What's the sentence for draft dodging or just refusing to go?

it's a class A felony I believe

[Unknown Target]

You get sent to jail for several years.

[Shade]

Don't see the point, other than muscle-flexing. The US already has enough air assets in the area to deal with anything Iran has, and a surface warship in the Straits of Hormuz will just provide a vulnerable target, given that Iran does have submarines. Maybe they just want them for the cruise missiles, but then they'd be better off with several more submarines of their own as those are quiet enough to evade their Iranian counterparts. So imo, it's mostly a show of force.

Now, I could see parking one of the destroyers right next to friendly states in the area for missile protection in case Iran get any ideas, but that doesn't seem to be the plan.

[Kazan]

i'm betting you there are several heavier submarines with the group but their presence is being kept a secret - they're letting out the knowledge of one sub to make them less suspicious when they see a sub on sonar.

[BlackDove]

Nice connection. Just before voting starts, another crisis and another war.

[Kazan]

Wag the dog!

of course.. good money is it would backfire

[BlackDove]

Yeah, highly don't think so.

Public would eat it up all too nicely because they don't really care.

[Janos]

...

Standard force rotation. This was planned ages ago.

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/navy_legacy.asp?id=146

[Kazan]

Public would eat it up all too nicely because they don't really care.

O'RLY?

[NGTM-1R]

I like how nobody noticed or responded to Janos' post.

Aside from that, the carrier groups don't ever go into the Gulf itself. It's much too cramped. Carriers like to be able to turn into the wind for launch and recovery of aircraft. They don't have to anymore, but they like to. It's also too easily mined and puts them uncomfortably close to land-based SSM sites. JTFME, which is composed of surface warships, operates inside the Gulf itself. (That's Joint Task Force Middle East for the ignorant. It nominally includes British and French ships as well as craft from the local navies.)

The Iranian Kilo SSKs are something of a joke, they are not well-maintained and their crews are laughable. They often spend six months or more tied to the quay. (If memory serves, as of last year's World Navies issue of Proceedings they had not gone to sea in more than a year.) They are intimidation weapons; the other states in the Gulf have navies composed almost exculsively of fast-attack craft with no sonar or ASW weapons. They are not meant to be actually used.

I also question your source on the ship assignments. It's far too small for a CVBG. There ought to be at least another two ships assigned. (A Spruance and another Burke or a frigate probably.)

[Shade]

I quite agree those subs are bottom of the (rusty) barrel, and as long as the carrier stays out of the gulf (which I expected I guess, but then I started thinking that if the administration wanted to send a message they might actually be stupid enough to send them in there over the objections of smarter people who actually understand what that would involve) those definitely won't be an issue.

In the gulf itself though, they could be a threat if they played smart, though I wouldn't rate the chances of them doing that too high either. Not a great threat, but even a small threat is too much really when it can be avoided completely by just moving 20 miles further away to give room for some decent ASW operations. Anyways, it appears to be academic, as you're making too much sense to be wrong and they likely just won't go there.

[Kazan]

I also question your source on the ship assignments. It's far too small for a CVBG. There ought to be at least another two ships assigned. (A Spruance and another Burke or a frigate probably.)

i don't think the list of ships was mean to be exhaustive

[Mr. Vega]

We'll know when the **** is hitting in the fan when Bush starts parking Ohios off the coast.

[Kazan]

and what if he already is 

[redmenace]

...

Standard force rotation. This was planned ages ago.

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/navy_legacy.asp?id=146

Amazing how people will lahp things up when it strokes their paranoia. Remember the APC in LA Near those protesters.

[IceFire]

Funny news story...the paranoia I think even reached a BBC news story in relation to the Iranian president. They didn't mention the supercarrier deal...just that an American ship was headed out that way.  But I thought that was pretty silly...they rotate carriers every so often along with some of their escorts.  Not a big deal...

Unless something happens.  Then its a big deal.

[Flipside]

Heh, the simple fact it was arranged ages ago does not mean it wasn't arranged to aggravate the situation in Iran.

That said, it could be perfectly normal, it does seem odd that it's happening now, and that there is a possibility that it could be taken in a bad way by Iran and bring on a crisis situation.

Without more info that we are never ever going to see, it's impossible to say, coincidence or not.

[Kosh]

Grrrrrr, If they keep spreading the military out they'll have to bring back the draft, and if they do that I'll have to go to war, and I DON'T WANT TO! I guess I'll just have to go get Canadian citizenship... or go to jail maybe. What's the sentence for draft dodging or just refusing to go?

Did you support going after Iraq?