Author Topic: 2006 Hurricane season is...  (Read 2774 times)

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Offline WeatherOp

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2006 Hurricane season is...
..normal, 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, 3 landfalls in the US, all three were Tropical storms. A normal season is all that can be said.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/tws/MIATWSAT_nov.shtml?
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Offline KappaWing

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
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Offline Dark RevenantX

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
blizzard.com

No wonder I like that company...

  

Offline karajorma

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
..normal, 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, 3 landfalls in the US, all three were Tropical storms. A normal season is all that can be said.

So presumably if next year is bad we can lynch all those people who claimed it was a 30 year cycle then? :D
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Offline WeatherOp

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
..normal, 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, 3 landfalls in the US, all three were Tropical storms. A normal season is all that can be said.

So presumably if next year is bad we can lynch all those people who claimed it was a 30 year cycle then? :D

Depends really, if we are in another El' Nino, no. :D

And secondly, I wasn't making any point for or against GW, just posting a recap as I did last year, pointing out a boring season, hurricane wise anyways.
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Offline karajorma

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
I didn't say anything about GW at all. It's just that the people who claimed 30 year cycles were posting the biggest load of psuedoscientific crap I'd ever seen in my life.

Maybe they had data I never saw but it appeared to be a case of drawing a straight line graph with only 3 data points to me.

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Offline WeatherOp

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
I didn't say anything about GW at all. It's just that the people who claimed 30 year cycles were posting the biggest load of psuedoscientific crap I'd ever seen in my life.

Maybe they had data I never saw but it appeared to be a case of drawing a straight line graph with only 3 data points to me.



Seams like pretty good backing to me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Multidecadal_Oscillation
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Offline Flipside

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
Actually, looking at the graph, it seems almost as though there are two oscillations, a 'Short-wave' one and a much longer one, since the centre of oscillation seems to be rising. Obviously, it could just be fluke, it tooks a long time, for example, for the fact that the Sun has two cycles for Sunspots, not just the standard 11 year one to be confirmed.

 

Offline WeatherOp

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
Actually, looking at the graph, it seems almost as though there are two oscillations, a 'Short-wave' one and a much longer one, since the centre of oscillation seems to be rising. Obviously, it could just be fluke, it tooks a long time, for example, for the fact that the Sun has two cycles for Sunspots, not just the standard 11 year one to be confirmed.

I would also imagine that it is also effected by ENSO conditions, as if a decade is dominated by El'Nino conditions, but I don't think there are jsut two. Most likey every one of these things are unique.  :)
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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
those nine named storms count the typhoons? there seemed to be some pretty bad ones this year, just recently one did some pretty nasty flood damage in the phillipines

this year obviously not near as bad as last year I just want to know if those were in that number

lotta fire this year

 

Offline IceFire

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
those nine named storms count the typhoons? there seemed to be some pretty bad ones this year, just recently one did some pretty nasty flood damage in the phillipines

this year obviously not near as bad as last year I just want to know if those were in that number

lotta fire this year
I think thats just the Atlantic.  I think the pressure was definitely off in the Atlantic but the people in the Pacific seemed to get all the attention this year with several very powerful typhoons.
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Offline karajorma

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
Seams like pretty good backing to me.

Quote
Based on the typical duration of negative and positive phases of the AMO, the current warm regime is expected to persist at least until 2015 and possibly as late as 2035

Oddest 30 year cycle I've ever heard of in my life if the cycle can take over 50 years.

I'm not denying the existence of the AMO or even that it can drive stronger hurricanes. I'm contesting this nonsense about it working in 30 year cycles when hurricanes will be stronger
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Offline WeatherOp

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
Seams like pretty good backing to me.

Quote
Based on the typical duration of negative and positive phases of the AMO, the current warm regime is expected to persist at least until 2015 and possibly as late as 2035

Oddest 30 year cycle I've ever heard of in my life if the cycle can take over 50 years.

I'm not denying the existence of the AMO or even that it can drive stronger hurricanes. I'm contesting this nonsense about it working in 30 year cycles when hurricanes will be stronger

Quote
Since the AMO switched to its warm phase, circa 1995, major hurricanes (category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) have become much more frequent and this has led to a crisis in windstorm insurance coverage and cost.

So, 1995-2035 would be 40 years not 50, I think they are saying the avg is 30 years, but could only last 20 years in length.

However, I am skeptical about it driving stronger hurricanes. I'm thinking more that with the increase of hurricanes you get an increase in major hurricanes just by numbers.

those nine named storms count the typhoons? there seemed to be some pretty bad ones this year, just recently one did some pretty nasty flood damage in the phillipines

this year obviously not near as bad as last year I just want to know if those were in that number

lotta fire this year

Yes, all Pacific basins(east and West and even Central) got blasted this year. and I think the El'Nino helped that some.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/background_information.html

It actually flipped predictions, most people were calling for an active Atlantic season, and a below avg. Pacific season.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2006, 05:13:44 pm by WeatherOp »
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Offline karajorma

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
So, 1995-2035 would be 40 years not 50, I think they are saying the avg is 30 years, but could only last 20 years in length.

Evidently you have forgotten that the positive half of a sine wave only constitutes half a cycle :p
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Offline bizzybody

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
There are several cycles that influence weather.

Sunspot cycles, several of them, not just the most obvious 11/22 year one.

The tilt angle of the Earth's axis is not a fixed value. It oscillates yearly a bit plus it has a several thouand year cycle from max to minimum tilt. Currently the angle is decreasing, which tends to produce overall more temperate weather, and the angle will continue to decrease for the next few thousand years. The yearly wobble moves the Arctic and Antarctic circles back and forth approximately 200 meters, but the current trend is polewards in a two steps forward- one step back motion. I've looked but haven't found anything but ballpark numbers for the absolute maximum range the circles move over. Even if I did, I don't know the math to calculate the area of the stripes the circles range over. At any rate, it's a fairly large area, which would be quite a difference in how much of Earth's surface has 24 hours or more constant darkness or constant sunlight per year.

How this would affect climate, even though it would seem that the summers and winters at the poles would cancel out, is due to the way heat works. During winter all that keeps the dark pole from getting super cold is the convection of the atmosphere and water currents. Antarctica will always be colder because it has no water currents to carry heat close to the pole, VS the north where there's water all the way to the pole. The summer pole gains heat due to convection and from direct insolation while the winter pole is radiating heat faster than convection can bring heat in.

Still another effect of orbital mechanics is the eccentricity of Earth's orbit and the precession of it's axis. Currently the northern hemisphere has winter while the Earth is farthest from the Sun. That's why the southern hemisphere climate is much milder, its winter comes at closest approach to the sun and summer at furthest from the sun. The bulk of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans being in the south also has an effect on mitigating temperature swings. In several thousand years, precession will reverse the summer/winter situation, though with the arrangement of land and water, the climate is most likely to shift to a more even situation instead of swapping the current extremes. Hop in a cryogenic freezer and set the alarm to wake up in time to see Antarctica thaw quite a bit. ;)

With all these effects in play (don't forget random factors like volcanic activity, or even asteroid/comet strikes), which nothing can be done to change, it's the height of hubris to think that we- the Human Race, can cause massive climate changes. If you dig back through the predictions of the 'sky is falling' human-caused climate catastrophe people, you'll find that they've drastically scaled them down over time, after the same people held the exact opposite position 'global cooling' for quite a while in the 60's and 70's.

And finally, to illustrate the extreme bogosity of the position taken by Al Gore and others, "We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period." Two other 'inconvenient' events commonly ignored are the 'Maunder Minimum' where records show a period of very minimal sunspot activity and the 'Little Ice Age' which happened around that time- and extended by a massive volcanic eruption that caused the 'year without a summer'. Right now the climate in many places, especially higher northeren latitudes, is not as warm as it was during the Medieval Warm Period. That's when the Vikings tried to colonize Greenland (when it was a botanically lush land) and in England there were commonly cultivated crops that it's still too cool to grow now.

So bring on 'global warming' and get back to the temperatures of that warmer time from ages past. (Nevermind that wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy back in the ages of the dinosaurs and other fossil eras it was a heck of a lot warmer.)
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Offline karajorma

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
I might believe you if the Medieval Warm Period was a global phenomenon. But Antarctic ice core samples show that it was actually colder right in the middle of the period than during the surrounding era.

No one denies that large volcanic eruptions can cause a worldwide lowering of temperature. Hell that's a central part of the Global Dimming theory which I've never heard anyone argue against.

If you want to start claiming scientific bias, it's also worth pointing out that the same people who claim that humans aren't responsible for global warming are the same people who claimed 10 years ago that it wasn't even bloody happening and the Earth wasn't getting warmer at all.
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Offline WeatherOp

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
So, 1995-2035 would be 40 years not 50, I think they are saying the avg is 30 years, but could only last 20 years in length.

Evidently you have forgotten that the positive half of a sine wave only constitutes half a cycle :p

And apparently you have misunderstood the cycle or read faulty sources. :p

Quote
What is the AMO?

The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1°F between extremes. These changes are natural and have been occurring for at least the last 1,000 years.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php
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Offline karajorma

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
You're still missing my point. The people who go on about 30 year cycles (and there are many of them) obviously don't have a clue.
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Offline aldo_14

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Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
I thought the cycle was unimportant RE: global warming anyways; my understanding was that the global warming connection theory was relating to the average strength of hurricanes, storms, etc rising due to warmer sea temperature, not the frequency of them.

 
Re: 2006 Hurricane season is...
if we're gonna talk about global warming shouldn't we look at global numbars

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