[karajorma]

You know it's a bad idea when the American response to global warming starts with. "Hey! Have you guys seen Highlander 2?"

http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,1999968,00.html

US answer to global warming: smoke and giant space mirrors

The US government wants the world's scientists to develop technology to block sunlight as a last-ditch way to halt global warming, the Guardian has learned. It says research into techniques such as giant mirrors in space or reflective dust pumped into the atmosphere would be "important insurance" against rising emissions, and has lobbied for such a strategy to be recommended by a major UN report on climate change, the first part of which will be published on Friday.

The US has also attempted to steer the UN report, prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), away from conclusions that would support a new worldwide climate treaty based on binding targets to reduce emissions - as sought by Tony Blair. It has demanded a draft of the report be changed to emphasise the benefits of voluntary agreements and to include criticisms of the Kyoto Protocol, the existing treaty which the US administration opposes.

The final IPCC report, written by experts from across the world, will underpin international negotiations to devise a new emissions treaty to succeed Kyoto, the first phase of which expires in 2012. World governments were given a draft of the report last year and invited to comment.

The US response, a copy of which has been obtained by the Guardian, says the idea of interfering with sunlight should be included in the summary for policymakers, the prominent chapter at the front of each IPCC report. It says: "Modifying solar radiance may be an important strategy if mitigation of emissions fails. Doing the R&D to estimate the consequences of applying such a strategy is important insurance that should be taken out. This is a very important possibility that should be considered."

Scientists have previously estimated that reflecting less than 1% of sunlight back into space could compensate for the warming generated by all greenhouse gases emitted since the industrial revolution. Possible techniques include putting a giant screen into orbit, thousands of tiny, shiny balloons, or microscopic sulphate droplets pumped into the high atmosphere to mimic the cooling effects of a volcanic eruption. The IPCC draft said such ideas were "speculative, uncosted and with potential unknown side-effects".

The US submission is based on the views of dozens of government officials and is accompanied by a letter signed by Harlan Watson, senior climate negotiator at the US state department. It complains the IPCC draft report is "Kyoto-centric" and it wants to include the work of economists who have reported "the degree to which the Kyoto framework is found wanting". It takes issue with a statement that "one weakness of the [Kyoto] protocol, however, is its non-ratificiation by some significant greenhouse gas emitters" and asks: "Is this the only weakness worth mentioning? Are there others?"

It also insists the wording on the ineffectiveness of voluntary agreements be altered to include "a number of them have had significant impacts" and complains that overall "the report tends to overstate or focus on the negative effects of climate change." It also wants more emphasis on responsibilities of the developing world.

The IPCC report is made up of three sections. The first, on the science of climate change, will be launched on Friday. Sections on the impact and mitigation of climate change - in which the US wants to include references to the sun-blocking technology - will follow later this year.

The likely contents of the report have been an open secret since the Bush administration posted its draft copy on the internet in April. Next week's science report will say there is a 90% chance that human activity is warming the planet, and that global average temperatures will rise another 1.5C to 5.8C this century depending on emissions. The US response shows it accepts these statements, but it disagrees with a more tentative conclusion that rising temperatures have made hurricanes more powerful.

So lets not actually fix the problem. Instead lets block any attempt to do so and hope that we can pull the Earth back from the brink at the last minute with technological solutions that haven't been tested in any way and may end up doing as much damage as the problems that they solve.  Genius. 

[Ford Prefect]

Ha-ha, but you have forgotten, my provincial little foreigner, the active ingredient: A good old-fashioned American can-do attitude! That's how we invented freedom.

[Black Wolf]

Gonna pipe up and dissent here for a second - call it a backup plan or whatever, but if it turns out we've already ****ed the planet up beyond repair, maybe a slight solar radiation decrease would be in order. I dunno about an orbiting mirror, but some kind of atmospheric dust, as long as it could be cecked and was absolutely safe, might not be all that bad, especially if it had a relatively short life cycle in the air...

[Dysko]

We could send all the robots in the Galapagos and order them to point their exhaust stacks towards the sky to move Earth in an orbit farther respect to the Sun. [/Futurama]

[karajorma]

Gonna pipe up and dissent here for a second - call it a backup plan or whatever, but if it turns out we've already ****ed the planet up beyond repair, maybe a slight solar radiation decrease would be in order. I dunno about an orbiting mirror, but some kind of atmospheric dust, as long as it could be cecked and was absolutely safe, might not be all that bad, especially if it had a relatively short life cycle in the air...

As a backup plan the solar mirror is fine. What I take issue with is that this really isn't a backup plan at all. It's a sit around and do **** all until it's too late for anything else plan.


Oh and spreading dust in the atmosphere can cause almost as much devastation as global warming can. There's good evidence that particulate matter in the air has been responsible for several famines in Africa for instance.

Given that the US response to global warming has been to repeatedly state that the climate models are all wrong and the science isn't good enough to predict worldwide trends it is rather a ridiculous position for them to now claim that not only can they do it but that they can now add a new variable and track the effect of that as well.

[Rictor]

You're all being incredible naive and forgetting the most obvious way of stopping global warming.

[Ace]

Orbital mirrors/shades have been discussed for quite a while as a solution for climate management.

Reflective dust? Far... far... far... too many potential problems.

[aldo_14]

Reflective dust? Far... far... far... too many potential problems.

What's to bet they suddenly discover smog is constituted of reflective particles?

...

[Ace]

By that you mean "discovered"

[karajorma]

What's to bet they suddenly discover smog is constituted of reflective particles?

That was discovered long ago. Ironically industrial pollution from smog and other particulate matter has actually been masking the effects of global warming for quite a while now. Of course it's been causing environmental disasters of its own all that time.

[aldo_14]

What's to bet they suddenly discover smog is constituted of reflective particles?

That was discovered long ago. Ironically industrial pollution from smog and other particulate matter has actually been masking the effects of global warming for quite a while now. Of course it's been causing environmental disasters of its own all that time.

Ah, of course - global dimming; Americas' strategy for the future!

[Mefustae]

Ah, of course - global dimming; Americas' strategy for the future!

Who'd of thunk you could sum up America's environmental and educational policies in one fell swoop.

[IceFire]

Gonna pipe up and dissent here for a second - call it a backup plan or whatever, but if it turns out we've already ****ed the planet up beyond repair, maybe a slight solar radiation decrease would be in order. I dunno about an orbiting mirror, but some kind of atmospheric dust, as long as it could be cecked and was absolutely safe, might not be all that bad, especially if it had a relatively short life cycle in the air...

Thats the problem..."****ed up the planet beyond repair".  We don't want to be there.  The Earth is currently a robust system...it will stretch...but only so far before it goes off somewhere else.  At least for a while.  I personally feel that the planet is pretty good at ultimately remaining life capable but if it will sustain us or sustain us in the interim is a huge question mark.  Its a question we shouldn't have to ask ourselves.

We should stop dicking around and hiding behind economics - which ironically enough is far more contentious regarding if green technology and emissions reductions would actually have a long term impact on developed countries economies - and actually get down to doing something.  It has to be done at every level.  Local through national.  Personal through to the leaders of the countries responsible.

The whole blocking the sun idea I think is a bad idea because it means we don't address the problem...we try and put it off a bit when we can address the problem now.  And we can...but it won't be good for the oil companies.  And thats the problem.

[aldo_14]

Thats the problem..."****ed up the planet beyond repair".  We don't want to be there.  The Earth is currently a robust system...it will stretch...but only so far before it goes off somewhere else.  At least for a while. 

But will it bring back some milk and a loaf of bread?

In all seriousness, I don't think there should be any doubt that the planet will 'kill' us before we can inflict damage sufficient to kill every trace of life on earth.  We've had global warming before - climate extremes are a documented, circular phenomenom, as are mass extinctions ala the Permian - the issue is not whether it will happen but if (as the evidence strongly suggests) we are 'tipping' the Earth into another severe climate period that will make it impossible to sustain human life.  IIRC it only takes a global rise of about 5C to turn New York into a stagnant swamp under about 20 feet of water (well, when it was last that temperature, NY was flooded) and we already have a predicted 1.8 - 5C rise over the next century.

[IceFire]

See I'm not TOO worried about humans surviving somehow. There's a few things about our species that make us ideal survivors. We're highly adaptable as far as tools are concerned and also as far as what we can eat.  Groups of people will survive somewhere because we're pretty smart on the whole when it comes to that.  But if the climate is out of control then food stocks will rapidly diminish and there will be riots and wars.

And we can avoid all that by having some guts and toughing it out and doing something about it.  The good thing is that people are finally starting to notice that things aren't quite the way they have been.  Its on the agenda.  I still hold some hope that we can pull this one from the fire.

[Rictor]

Alternately, we could all stockpile food, water and weapons, the third to keep people away from the first two. Personally I hope to ride out the coming catastrophe in a heavily guarded mansion, dining on caviar and champagne while watching in amusement as the impoverished hoards destroy themselves. Surviving isn't enough, you've got to do it in style.

[Turey]

See I'm not TOO worried about humans surviving somehow. There's a few things about our species that make us ideal survivors.

Like breeding like rabbits?

Honestly. Humans really only have three things going for them:
1. We have thumbs.
2. We have big heads.
3. We view reproduction as the species' pastime, and as such, do it as often as possible.

Alternately, we could all stockpile food, water and weapons, the third to keep people away from the first two. Personally I hope to ride out the coming catastrophe in a heavily guarded mansion, dining on caviar and champagne while watching in amusement as the impoverished hoards destroy themselves. Surviving isn't enough, you've got to do it in style.

Claiming large amounts of land in Antarctica is looking like a pretty good investment right now...

[IceFire]

Nailed that one on the head Turey.  We're also pretty good at covering vast distances and eating almost anything.  Our ancestors ate tree bark!

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Nailed that one on the head Turey.  We're also pretty good at covering vast distances and eating almost anything.  Our ancestors ate tree bark!

or fellow-humans in North Korea still do

[aldo_14]

Nailed that one on the head Turey.  We're also pretty good at covering vast distances and eating almost anything.  Our ancestors ate tree bark!

or fellow-humans in North Korea still do

North Korea still has trees?!