Author Topic: US missile defence program  (Read 3550 times)

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Offline IceFire

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Re: US missile defence program
What Bush and cronies are saying is actually true this time.  The shield is meant to be used against rogue states that can muster less than a dozen ICBM's or closer in-theater missiles.  Against a real nuclear opponent like Russia or China this shield is an expensive waste of time because most of their ICBM's contain multiple warheads that deploy in a cluster like formation prior to being intercepted.  So instead of trying to intercept a hundred missiles suddenly its 400 warheads or something like that.  The Star Wars initiative was really cool because of all the sci-fi style weapons and the research may ultimately prove useful in 50 years or so...but son of Star Wars hasn't got much of a chance of being useful in a full out conflict. Maybe against N. Korea...
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Offline Flipside

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Re: US missile defence program
The Missile Shield is far more a phsychological shield than a physical one. if it weren't for the paranoia of the current situation, people would be asking questions like 'Why are we spending billions on a hi-tech shield against hi-tech attack when the biggest threats come from low-tech solutions?'

A Nuke in a suitcase cannot be hit by a missile.

And that's not even beginning to touch the whole 'projected threat' against 'actual threat' scenario.

 

Offline jr2

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Re: US missile defence program
The Missile Shield is far more a phsychological shield than a physical one. if it weren't for the paranoia of the current situation, people would be asking questions like 'Why are we spending billions on a hi-tech shield against hi-tech attack when the biggest threats come from low-tech solutions?'


Maybe they're worried about someone getting their hands on an EMP device?

 

Offline Nuke

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Re: US missile defence program
A Nuke in a suitcase cannot be hit by a missile.

it can, but that would be aqward and strange :D
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Offline Mika

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Re: US missile defence program
Huh? I don't really get what there is to discuss about this. But on the other hand I shouldn't even write about these things, they only lead to mud wrestling where everyone gets dirty.

Have you forgotten the fact that it was Russia who added the usage of tactical nukes in their doctrine some years ago? Not that the missile shield would actually help against those, but it actually means there is some Western military presence in those areas, which is good in my books. I agree that the money would have been better spent on more F-22s so that the tactical nuke arsenal could be neglected. I think that this missile shield has pretty much nothing to do with terrorists launching nukes and everything about containing Russia. It is an open question if this is a wise move given the current economic trends, however. It could lead to arms race where US is on the losing side given the price of its projects and already stressed economy.

And, if you look the history a certain trans Europian-Asian nation, you'll probably notice a trend which should worrify anyone relying on Russia. I thought it would have been understood after the gas line going through Ukraine was shut down. Or after the deal about refinery construction was re-negotiated after the refinery was constructed by Shell, of course. Or the media blackout of the War in Chechnya (sp). Or the election circumstances in Ukraine just to name a few incidents.

As a sidenote, I thought that either Russia or China was developing a ballistic missile that does some kind of wiggling movement during the terminal phase of the flight. However, I have not seen any reports on the results of that thing. As somebody mentioned, it's already difficult to physically hit something with the speeds involved. Even a small error in the course or the speed will cause the interceptor missile to fly past the missile never hitting anything. Keep in mind these are measured in real time and are subject to instrument errors - and data transmittance errors.

Mika
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Offline Agent_Koopa

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Re: US missile defence program
A Nuke in a suitcase cannot be hit by a missile.

"Hahaha! Nobody can detect this suitcase nuke!" *SSSHHHHHHHH* *crunch*
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Offline Bobboau

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Re: US missile defence program
I like how a nuke in a suitcase is a low-tech threat :D
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Offline Agent_Koopa

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Re: US missile defence program
I like how a nuke in a suitcase is a low-tech threat :D

Heh, yeah.
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Offline DeepSpace9er

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Re: US missile defence program
Quote
It could lead to arms race where US is on the losing side given the price of its projects and already stressed economy.

Considering the US spent $420 billion on defence in 2005:

The US military spending was almost two-fifths of the total.
The US military spending was almost 7 times larger than the Chinese budget, the second largest spender.
The US military budget was almost 29 times as large as the combined spending of the six “rogue” states (Cuba, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Sudan and Syria) who spent $14.65 billion.
It was more than the combined spending of the next 14 nations.
The United States and its close allies accounted for some two thirds to three-quarters of all military spending, depending on who you count as close allies (typically NATO countries, Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan and South Korea)
The six potential “enemies,” Russia, and China together spent $139 billion, 30% of the U.S. military budget

http://www.globalissues.org/Geopolitics/ArmsTrade/Spending.asp

The US can wipe the floor when it comes to defence spending. When the US budget is $2.9 trillion, if it came to an arms race, im sure there were be money found somewhere to add to the half a trillion dollars the US spends annually on defence.

 

Offline Flipside

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Re: US missile defence program
Not a low tech threat, a low tech solution :p And while highly unlikely to happen, unless you plan to search every suitcase on every coach, plain, bus and car in the US, it is still more likely than an attempt to attack the US militarily from range ;)

More or less for the reasons DS9er posted.

 
Re: US missile defence program
Regarding ICBMs and interception:

There are basically three phases of flight: boost, midflight, terminal.

In the boost phase, the missile is a large, slow target with a hot rocket plume behind it. Furthermore, it's over enemy territory. It is easy to shoot down at this point, although the window of vulnerability is only about 15 seconds and it's typically deep inside enemy territory. Nevertheless, if a ballistic missile attack was anticipated, a penetrating stealth aircraft could potentially engage and destroy the missile in this phase.

In the midflight phase, it's moving fast and it's very high up. Ground-based defences probably could not hit it easily. This would require bullet-on-bullet precision from distances of 1200km for ICBMs (in suborbital spaceflight). Doing that with a kinetic missile would be near impossible, technology regardless. Getting the interceptor up there is difficult enough.
A space-based defence system has half a chance of stopping missiles in midflight. Its countermeasures do not have to fight gravity to reach their target, letting them expend more fuel on manoeuvering to hit it.
Ground-based lasers would be attenuated greatly by the atmosphere. They would have to be extremely powerful to shoot upward through miles of atmosphere and still bring down an ICBM, especially if the enemy decides to give them a reflective, antilaser coating. Space-based lasers would fare much better and would require less energy input to impart the same level of energy to the target, possibly enough to overcome antilaser measures.
Probably the best solution would be to use some sort of EMP or nuclear device in the high atmosphere to destroy multiple ICBMs simultaneously.

In the terminal phase, the warhead (it may no longer be a whole missile if the launch vehicle has MIRVed) is moving very fast, it's making final adjustments to its course, and it's over friendly territory. The goal, should it get this far, is primarily to stop it hitting its intended target. Diverting it by a few miles will still likely result in many deaths, but fewer than if it had reached the planned impact point.
Remember that modern nukes are fused for airburst, sometimes at thousands of metres altitude. Once it enters terminal flight, there is an uncertain amount of time available to the defender to destroy or divert the warhead. Diverting it will result result in a nuclear yield. Destroying it will not, but still scatter radioactive debris.
At this point kinetic missiles are almost certainly out of the picture unless the launcher is within the expected target zone. The warhead is supersonic. An airborne laser may do the job, but can only protect the airspace in front of it out to a limited range. Also, the fire rate of such a defence is limited; not only does it have to cool and recharge the laser after each shot, the shots themselves may require a substantial period of time to pierce the shell of the warhead's fuel tank. Keeping a laser focused on a supersonic target is not an easy task.
Ground-based emplacements are not limited by the mass, bulk and power requirements of their laser. These sites could be substantially more powerful and fire pulses capable of destroying warheads almost instantly. The tracking problem would be no more difficult that it is for an airborne platform.
Finally, the easiest and lowest-tech way to bring down nukes in the terminal phase is a high-explosive shrapnel missile of some sort. The tracking system need only be good enough to get close to the target before detonating. A larger explosion means that less accuracy is required, plus it may hit multiple warheads.
A laser would likely destroy an inbound warhead. An interceptor missile would destroy it on impact (very unlikely) or divert it with a nearby explosion.

The USA's missile defences currently consist of THAAD, PAC-3 and the experimental ABL. THAAD stands for Theatre High Altitude Air Defence, the Army's part of the missile defence programme. It is designed to intercept warheads at altitudes of 120 to 150km using kinetic hit-to-kill missiles. Despite the difficulty of hitting a ballistic missile in the midflight phase, THAAD has demonstrated this capability, although I'm not sure how reliable it would be against a real nuclear attack.
PAC-3 (Patriot Advanced Capability 3) missiles are capable of intercepting ballistic warheads at ranges of about 10km. These are absolute last-chance defences; they would probably have some degree of success mainly due to quantity (put enough explosive in the air and you're bound to hit something) but the PAC-1 and PAC-2 upgrades also provided facility for attacking specifically ballistic missiles.


That's the background and should answer any more questions people have about missile defence and the difficulties involved. If I've got anything wrong, please correct me. Some figures came from Wikipedia and may not be accurate.
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Offline Dysko

Re: US missile defence program
Probably the best solution would be to use some sort of EMP or nuclear device in the high atmosphere to destroy multiple ICBMs simultaneously.
I wouldn't use nukes in the high atmosphere: every nuke, when explodes, generate an EMP pulse, and the radius over which it expands is greater increasing altitude (at a certain altitude, the EMP pulse is so strong that it can even reach the ground). So, a nuke detonated in high atmosphere would have an high chance of shutting down every electronic system on the ground.

Imagine yourself playing "Berbaiting", after having completed all the objectives, and your PC shuts down while jumping out because a nuke exploded in the high atmosphere :shaking:
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Offline MP-Ryan

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Re: US missile defence program
A missile shield is irrelevant and a waste of money and time.  Even if someone is so stupid to start flinging nukes, they're going to be smuggled in, not shot overhead.  Why call attention to yourself when you could easily fly/ship/walk a nuke into any Western country, smuggle it to a high-profile site, and detonate... without calling attention to yourself.  Money should be spent on human intelligence assets, not more technology.  This is the problem that has gotten the US into so much trouble to begin with - piss poor underfunded intelligence.
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Offline Mika

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Re: US missile defence program
Quote
Considering the US spent $420 billion on defence in 2005:

The US military spending was almost two-fifths of the total.
The US military spending was almost 7 times larger than the Chinese budget, the second largest spender.
The US military budget was almost 29 times as large as the combined spending of the six “rogue” states (Cuba, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Sudan and Syria) who spent $14.65 billion.
It was more than the combined spending of the next 14 nations.
The United States and its close allies accounted for some two thirds to three-quarters of all military spending, depending on who you count as close allies (typically NATO countries, Australia, Canada, Israel, Japan and South Korea)
The six potential “enemies,” Russia, and China together spent $139 billion, 30% of the U.S. military budget

http://www.globalissues.org/Geopolitics/ArmsTrade/Spending.asp

The US can wipe the floor when it comes to defence spending. When the US budget is $2.9 trillion, if it came to an arms race, im sure there were be money found somewhere to add to the half a trillion dollars the US spends annually on defence.

I wouldn't be so sure if you can compare it this way. Superpower nations spend the defence budget usually on projects that don't buy or use foreign equipment, which would imply that you have to consider the inland value of the currency. Using these terms, you'll find out that US is actually third in defence budget, China and Russia being ahead. A single rouble seems to have a value of roughly 1/26 USD, which would mean that the Russian budget should be multiplied by 26 to get it on the same line as US. Chinese Yuan has a value of approximately 7.73, which means that also Chinese get a boost to their budget.

Based on the numbers you provided, the corrected amount would be:
China: 420 US Billion / 7 * 7.73 ~ 463.8 US Billion
Russia: First the Russian budget in USD would be 139 US Billions - (420 US Billions / 7) ~ 79 US Billion
Corrected amount by the course of rouble would be 79 US Billions * 26 ~ 2054 US Billions

USA: 420 US Billion

It seems that you are quite behind.

I think these values are bit more realistic, but then again this doesn't take account the actual buying power of the currency inside the country (i.e. How much work you can get done by the same amount of money in each country). I think Russian budget would drop with that correction, but based on my experiences, the prices in China are ten times less than in Europe, but also people net 10 times less so it evens out. Does anyone have experience in the actual buying power of rouble inside Russia?

But the point was that I wouldn't bet my money on US having the largest defence budget. At the moment the most advanced defence technology is developed in US, but for how long with these numbers?

Mika
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Offline Agent_Koopa

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Re: US missile defence program
Probably the best solution would be to use some sort of EMP or nuclear device in the high atmosphere to destroy multiple ICBMs simultaneously.
I wouldn't use nukes in the high atmosphere: every nuke, when explodes, generate an EMP pulse, and the radius over which it expands is greater increasing altitude (at a certain altitude, the EMP pulse is so strong that it can even reach the ground). So, a nuke detonated in high atmosphere would have an high chance of shutting down every electronic system on the ground.

Imagine yourself playing "Berbaiting", after having completed all the objectives, and your PC shuts down while jumping out because a nuke exploded in the high atmosphere :shaking:


NOOOOO! Curse you missile defense!
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Offline Ace

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Re: US missile defence program
To be honest detonating nuclear devices for EMP purposes would be more effective than outright destroying a target.

Hitting a city means there's something to rally behind. Knocking out power for the eastern seaboard creates temporary confusion and massive economic disruption. It creates the terror because you don't know when or how all modern life is going to be stopped again by that said group. Since there isn't a real deathtoll any reaction made is going to be inevitably viewed as an overreaction, thus scoring more points for the country/group/cause.

Let's face it, using nukes for disruption as opposed to levelling targets would be a smarter tactic for even the US to adopt...
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Offline Dysko

Re: US missile defence program
Let's face it, using nukes for disruption as opposed to levelling targets would be a smarter tactic for even the US to adopt...
During the Kosovo war, US fighters dropped some kind of bomb that disabled electric power plants without destroying them, the CBU-94.
It doesn't need a nuclear bomb to be effective, but its effectiveness depends on the dimension of the area serviced by the power plant.
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