Author Topic: Enlightenment  (Read 17261 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Flipside

  • əp!sd!l£
  • 212
Quote
You can't have it both ways.  If you can argue that science has never gone for "control", that it's all the fault of unscrupulous people hijacking it for their own ends, then I can argue the same for religion.

I'm not saying that there are no unscrupulous scientists, but science is about testing and retesting axioms. Scientists don't just call out other people's theories for the attention, at least not unless you find Cold Fusion, they do it because those Axioms must constantly be tested  As for Global warming, most scientists don't disagree that it is happening, most scientists disagree on the level of impact that humanity is having, and that is becoming more and more an argument of 'how bad is it?'.

As for the death threats. Are scientists calling for the immediate tracking down and execution of the heretic? You'll also notice that particular article quotes from the program at the start of this thread and fails to mention the ensuing lawsuit from the scientist who's quote is, I note, mentioned in the article, which casts further doubts on exactly how accurate that report is. When Salman Rushdie wrote Satanic Verses he wasn't just sent death threats, he had an entire institution baying for his blood.

Psuedo-Science has obviously been used before for great evil, though I hasten to add that Phrenology and other such methods were favourite tools of Religious institutions, who are, quite frankly, used to believing things on faith and without question, not testing those axioms to say whether they are true or not.

You could say that Ethnic cleansing has been based on Darwinism, but does that buy any more salt than 'Invading Iraq was God's will'? They are both obviously third parties misusing a tool, but that doesn't mean that the tool is invalid or it's readings are wrong.

Oh, and as for that report at the top, even the worlds top meteorologist is calling it rubbish...

http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/0200wales/tm_headline=top-meteorologist-pours-scorn-on-tv-s-debunking-of-global-warming&method=full&objectid=18749397&siteid=50082-name_page.html
« Last Edit: March 14, 2007, 04:38:47 pm by Flipside »

 

Offline aldo_14

  • Gunnery Control
  • 213
You can't have it both ways.  If you can argue that science has never gone for "control", that it's all the fault of unscrupulous people hijacking it for their own ends, then I can argue the same for religion.

Except you can't.

People go for control, yes.  But science as a process is not one of control but investigation and rationale.  Religion, in contrast, is dedicated to control - controlling the act of worship.  Now, I don't see the 'science vs religion' argument as relevant here - unless you're one of the nutcases who believe ****ing up the planet will be rewarded by god with a brand new one - but I'd say it's a fundamental misunderstanding to place science as analagous to religion in this context.

Quote
Okay, then given that claim, explain why global warming is currently presented as a foregone conclusion, proven beyond all doubt, despite the considerable number of scientists who can't agree on whether global warming exists, what the extent of humankind's impact on the climate is, and what sort of results we can expect.

It's not as simple as you're making it.

We have observed a warming trend in the planet beyond that which you would expect.  Particularly once global dimming is factored in.  Computer simulations, amongst other things, have been used to establish a strong degree of certainty that man-made actions are affecting the climate of the planet on an atmospheric scale. 

Given the vast damage that global warming would inflict (climatological, economic, social devastation) when it hits (not this century, probably, but in time for our grandchildren), and given the established likelihood of a human role (i.e. very), then the only safe conclusion is that we avert this already very likely risk or face catastrophe.

I would remind you that the IPCC has a role which requires considering every single piece of research, is naturally conservative by nature of its existence, and yet has come to the conclusion we are in severe danger.

Quote
Science has been co-opted for control before, and will be again.  Phrenology has been used to justify jailing innocent people, Darwinianism has been used to justify eugenics and racial cleansing, and global warming is being used to justify, as Bobboau said, increased government power.

Except none of this has a bearing upon the science, so I'm not sure why you're bringing it up except for FUD purposes.

Quote
Except that the IPCC has historically under estimated climate change
Under-estimated by whose definition?  Their own.  (Or, equivalently, other global-warming proponents.)  Nobody has yet offered any sort of hypothesis that has borne out under testing; all we have is wild speculation.  Back in the seventies the climatologists' claim was that the Earth would undergo a new ice age within twenty years, and that prediction turned out to be completely false.

Under-estimated by recorded fact since reports were made (for example, the 2001 reports' maximum estimate was just about the recorded rise that actually occured in the relevant time period) - I'm pretty sure I already mentioned this.

As regards to the 1970s ice age; I'm afraid you are simply wrong - http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/.  See http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=94 for the summary (in essence, the media, not scientists, were making this prediction). 

Moreso, do you really think science can't improve in 20 years?  (this is ignoring the use of more and more advanced - and plausible - computer simulations, which can provide a more accurate predictions simply by using known past climate data as a test model group)
« Last Edit: March 14, 2007, 05:31:15 pm by aldo_14 »

 

Offline Flipside

  • əp!sd!l£
  • 212
What was actually said was that we are on the run-up into another Ice-Age, and, if anything, that fact is more firmly established now.

The problem is here is that when a Geologist talks about 'Soon', people automatically assume that means 'within our lifetime'. Geologically speaking, 'Soon' means within about 20 thousand years.

 

Offline Kosh

  • A year behind what's funny
  • 210
The religious right in America wants to destroy the environment. Why? Because they believe that their "savior" will come soon and so none of this will matter. They want the world to end. It's scary that a country with the power and wealth that the US has is effectively run by people with a deathwish.
"The reason for this is that the original Fortran got so convoluted and extensive (10's of millions of lines of code) that no-one can actually figure out how it works, there's a massive project going on to decode the original Fortran and write a more modern system, but until then, the UK communication network is actually relying heavily on 35 year old Fortran that nobody understands." - Flipside

Brain I/O error
Replace and press any key

 

Offline Goober5000

  • HLP Loremaster
  • 214
    • Goober5000 Productions
Are scientists calling for the immediate tracking down and execution of the heretic?
No, but religions -- like science -- seldom call for the immediate tracking down and execution of individuals, and even seldomer follow through with it.  The point is that dissenting opinions, far from being treated as challenges, are treated as threats.

People have much more subtle ways of suppressing dissent than simply killing people.  Scientists who don't toe the line on global warming are being ostracized, and their opinions are downplayed in the media while those of the establishment are played up.

Again, this is not to malign science at the expense of religion, or vice versa, simply to say that religion and science are both tools, and morally neutral in and of themselves.  It is what people do with them that matters.

Quote
[Religious institutions] are, quite frankly, used to believing things on faith and without question, not testing those axioms to say whether they are true or not.
What rubbish is this?  Religion is not based on accepting things without question.  Religious people test stuff all the time -- we pray in the expectation that prayers will be answered; we use theology to predict people's behavior.  Faith is proceeding based on an assumption, or an incomplete understanding of a situation.  Not credulously swallowing dogma with glazed eyes.

I presume you aren't acquainted with many religious people?

Quote
You could say that Ethnic cleansing has been based on Darwinism, but does that buy any more salt than 'Invading Iraq was God's will'? They are both obviously third parties misusing a tool, but that doesn't mean that the tool is invalid or it's readings are wrong.
I've never seen anyone claim that the Iraq war was God's will, except in parodies.  Eliminating WMDs, liberating the Iraqis, deposing a dictator, taking over the Middle East, stealing oil, manipulating the economy, etc., are a far cry from "God wants me to do this" or even "This should be done because it is in accordance with the moral imperative that God has laid out".

As for misusing a tool, that is something I agree with.  That's actually the point I believe I was trying to establish all along, but whether that was your original position or something you just now decided, then fair enough -- we can conclude that part of the debate.

Quote
Oh, and as for that report at the top, even the worlds top meteorologist is calling it rubbish...
So far, I've only seen people attacking the people who produced it, trying to discredit their reputations.  Or people simply saying the documentary is incorrect without providing proof.  Show me a refutation of the science involved.


----------------------------------------------------------------------------


You can't have it both ways.  If you can argue that science has never gone for "control", that it's all the fault of unscrupulous people hijacking it for their own ends, then I can argue the same for religion.

Except you can't.

People go for control, yes.  But science as a process is not one of control but investigation and rationale.  Religion, in contrast, is dedicated to control - controlling the act of worship.
Religion is not dedicated to control.  Religion is about discovery, both about the self and about God, or Nirvana, or the Ultimate.  It is people who decide to use science as a tool for control, and it is people who decide to use religion as a tool for control.

Quote
Now, I don't see the 'science vs religion' argument as relevant here
I don't see it as relevant either, if we're talking about global warming.  I wasn't the one who started it, though.

Quote
It's not as simple as you're making it.

We have observed a warming trend in the planet beyond that which you would expect.  Particularly once global dimming is factored in.  Computer simulations, amongst other things, have been used to establish a strong degree of certainty that man-made actions are affecting the climate of the planet on an atmospheric scale.
What sort of warming trend have we "expected"?  Twenty years ago people thought the world would be cooling.  Their expectations were certainly proven wrong.

People agree that the climate is fluctuating -- as it has always done -- but disagree on what the short-, medium-, and long-term trends are.  Volcanic activity, solar activity, and livestock digestion have all been cited as causes of global climate change too.  Many scientists argue that any human contribution is just a drop in the bucket -- on par with peeing into Niagara Falls.

The global temperature isn't historically unusual anyway.  It's about the same today as it was in 1600.

Quote
Given the vast damage that global warming would inflict (climatological, economic, social devastation) when it hits (not this century, probably, but in time for our grandchildren), and given the established likelihood of a human role (i.e. very), then the only safe conclusion is that we avert this already very likely risk or face catastrophe.
The earth has survived meteor impacts, cataclysmic solar events, hypercanes, and supervolcanos with life coming through unscathed.  Humans have survived plagues, wars, earthquakes, tsunamis, and an ice age.  Neither people nor life is in any danger from global climate change.

If the effects of global warming will take 100 years or more to manifest, then there's no harm in waiting 20 years for testable hypotheses to be proven true or false before taking action.  If we're already past the point of no return and irrevocably doomed, then there's no point in taking any action, and we may as well sit back and enjoy it.

The point is, global climate change is very poorly understood, even by the standards of the most radical proponents.  Reacting in a knee-jerk fashion, or running around doing something just to look busy, is a recipe for disaster.  We'd be just as likely to do harm as good.

Quote
I would remind you that the IPCC has a role which requires considering every single piece of research, is naturally conservative by nature of its existence, and yet has come to the conclusion we are in severe danger.
So we're fine for the time being then.  We should keep studying this so we know exactly what's going on.  We certainly shouldn't make needlessly restrictive regulations on something we have incomplete understanding of.

Quote
Quote
Science has been co-opted for control before, and will be again.  Phrenology has been used to justify jailing innocent people, Darwinianism has been used to justify eugenics and racial cleansing, and global warming is being used to justify, as Bobboau said, increased government power.

Except none of this has a bearing upon the science, so I'm not sure why you're bringing it up except for FUD purposes.
I'm saying it to establish that science has been mistaken in the past, will be mistaken in the future, and is likely mistaken now.  We need to understand what we're dealing with before we start dealing with it.

Quote
Quote
Except that the IPCC has historically under estimated climate change
Under-estimated by whose definition?  Their own.  (Or, equivalently, other global-warming proponents.)  Nobody has yet offered any sort of hypothesis that has borne out under testing; all we have is wild speculation.  Back in the seventies the climatologists' claim was that the Earth would undergo a new ice age within twenty years, and that prediction turned out to be completely false.

Under-estimated by recorded fact since reports were made (for example, the 2001 reports' maximum estimate was just about the recorded rise that actually occured in the relevant time period) - I'm pretty sure I already mentioned this.
The full report isn't out yet.  What we have now is a series of summaries that may have been misinterpreted for political expediency.  Perhaps we can defer a conclusion until May 2007, when the full report comes out?

Anyway the IPCC is a political institution, not a scientific one.  It's run by the UN, after all.

Quote
As regards to the 1970s ice age; I'm afraid you are simply wrong - http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/.  See http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=94 for the summary (in essence, the media, not scientists, were making this prediction). 
From Wikipedia:

"In the 1970s, there was increasing awareness that estimates of global temperatures showed cooling since 1945. The general public had little awareness about carbon dioxide's effects: at the time garbage, chemical disposal, smog, particulate pollution, and acid rain were the focus of public concern, although Paul R. Ehrlich mentions climate change from the greenhouse gases in 1968. Not long after the idea of global cooling reached the public press in the mid-1970s, the temperature trend stopped going down."

So the temperature was decreasing from 1945 to 1970, at least.  And the temperature has been increasing from 1970 to today.  I made the mistake of sensationalizing the trend (cooling = Ice Age), but by the same token, the global warming activists should be wary of making the similar mistake (warming = catastrophe).


----------------------------------------------------------------------------


The religious right in America wants to destroy the environment. Why? Because they believe that their "savior" will come soon and so none of this will matter. They want the world to end. It's scary that a country with the power and wealth that the US has is effectively run by people with a deathwish.
Patently ridiculous.  Are you going to debate, or would you rather toss strawmen around?
« Last Edit: March 15, 2007, 11:34:14 pm by Goober5000 »

 

Offline Kosh

  • A year behind what's funny
  • 210
Quote
Patently ridiculous.  Are you going to debate, or would you rather toss strawmen around?


Ok, got any proof that I'm wrong?
"The reason for this is that the original Fortran got so convoluted and extensive (10's of millions of lines of code) that no-one can actually figure out how it works, there's a massive project going on to decode the original Fortran and write a more modern system, but until then, the UK communication network is actually relying heavily on 35 year old Fortran that nobody understands." - Flipside

Brain I/O error
Replace and press any key

 

Offline Bobboau

  • Just a MODern kinda guy
    Just MODerately cool
    And MODest too
  • 213
I have extensive dealings with the religious right in the US, and let me assure you they do not want to end the world via ecological disaster, some of them may want to bring about a war to end all wars, but as far as the climate is concerned they just don't care, they think global warming is a trick by the librals and the commies to try and take away america's industrial capacity and thus cripple it, I can see were they get that from and can agree that there are probably (a relatively small number of) people who want to use it for a similar goal but they are insane if they deny it's happening.
Bobboau, bringing you products that work... in theory
learn to use PCS
creator of the ProXimus Procedural Texture and Effect Generator
My latest build of PCS2, get it while it's hot!
PCS 2.0.3


DEUTERONOMY 22:11
Thou shalt not wear a garment of diverse sorts, [as] of woollen and linen together

 

Offline NGTM-1R

  • I reject your reality and substitute my own
  • 213
  • Syndral Active. 0410.
Ok, got any proof that I'm wrong?

He frankly doesn't have to, Kosh. You made a claim, the burden of proof of it is on you.
"Load sabot. Target Zaku, direct front!"

A Feddie Story

 

Offline TrashMan

  • T-tower Avenger. srsly.
  • 213
  • God-Emperor of your kind!
    • FLAMES OF WAR
Quote
I would remind you that the IPCC has a role which requires considering every single piece of research, is naturally conservative by nature of its existence, and yet has come to the conclusion we are in severe danger.
So we're fine for the time being then.  We should keep studying this so we know exactly what's going on.  We certainly shouldn't make needlessly restrictive regulations on something we have incomplete understanding of.
[\quote]

Human understanding will allways be incomplete. A perfect argument to never do anything.. :lol:

Think of it this way - you test some drug on people. Your initial summaries predict that there's a high chance it will be harmfull. Will you stop with the drug test or will you continue giving it to the people untill you achieve "complete understanding" of it?
Nobody dies as a virgin - the life ****s us all!

You're a wrongularity from which no right can escape!

 

Offline aldo_14

  • Gunnery Control
  • 213
Quote
Religion is not dedicated to control.  Religion is about discovery, both about the self and about God, or Nirvana, or the Ultimate.  It is people who decide to use science as a tool for control, and it is people who decide to use religion as a tool for control.

Then what are things like the Ten Commandments if not, y'know, controlling commands?

Anyways, irrelevant to this topic.

Quote
What sort of warming trend have we "expected"?  Twenty years ago people thought the world would be cooling.  Their expectations were certainly proven wrong.

People agree that the climate is fluctuating -- as it has always done -- but disagree on what the short-, medium-, and long-term trends are.  Volcanic activity, solar activity, and livestock digestion have all been cited as causes of global climate change too.  Many scientists argue that any human contribution is just a drop in the bucket -- on par with peeing into Niagara Falls.

The global temperature isn't historically unusual anyway.  It's about the same today as it was in 1600.

It's not possible to plausibly estimate the global mean before 1600, and this most definately is the highest (global average) temperature in 400 years with (notably) increasing rates of heating.  And let's not forget the role of global dimming in masking the actual rise.  Also, IIRC the middle-ages warm period was localized to europe (and in any case may have been correlated to the medieval maximum in solar activity; solar activity has been theorised as contributing to global climate change, also said theory also decided that the effect was less than that of greenhouse gases).

If you read the (particularly 2nd) links I posted earlier, it should help clear up you misunderstanding of what was being predicted in the 70s, and where the limitations of the science and research lay.  I'd note that the attitude of 'we got it wrong* 20 years ago, hence can never be right' is one that flies in the face of both common sense and scientific endeavour.

*if we did, which we did, but not in the way you seem to think

Quote
The earth has survived meteor impacts, cataclysmic solar events, hypercanes, and supervolcanos with life coming through unscathed.  Humans have survived plagues, wars, earthquakes, tsunamis, and an ice age.  Neither people nor life is in any danger from global climate change.

If the effects of global warming will take 100 years or more to manifest, then there's no harm in waiting 20 years for testable hypotheses to be proven true or false before taking action.  If we're already past the point of no return and irrevocably doomed, then there's no point in taking any action, and we may as well sit back and enjoy it.

The point is, global climate change is very poorly understood, even by the standards of the most radical proponents.  Reacting in a knee-jerk fashion, or running around doing something just to look busy, is a recipe for disaster.  We'd be just as likely to do harm as good.


I think you misunderstand the issue; the earth will survive, humanity will - already is - be put under great pressure to survive.  Not in our lifetimes, yes, but if we don't act to counteract something which there is already very strong scientific evidence for then we will have pushed ourselves past a point of no return.  Every climatological assessment over the last decade or so has pointed to increasing, not decreasing change.  We're already seeing record droughts in Africa - just because it doesn't touch you or my cosy little industrialized nation doesn't mean people aren't suffering, and it doesn't mean we can't sit on our arse waiting for the responsibility to pass onto the next generation - because there is a great harm in waiting 20 years.

And the whole 'sit back and be doomed' is simply an idiotic statement to make.  I expect better from you.

Quote
So we're fine for the time being then.  We should keep studying this so we know exactly what's going on.  We certainly shouldn't make needlessly restrictive regulations on something we have incomplete understanding of.

You didn't actually read what I wrote, did you?

Quote
I'm saying it to establish that science has been mistaken in the past, will be mistaken in the future, and is likely mistaken now.  We need to understand what we're dealing with before we start dealing with it.

Sounds like an excuse, to me.  We don't fully understand HIV/AIDS (and may never), but we still have to try and treat it and coutneract it.

Quote
The full report isn't out yet.  What we have now is a series of summaries that may have been misinterpreted for political expediency.  Perhaps we can defer a conclusion until May 2007, when the full report comes out?

Anyway the IPCC is a political institution, not a scientific one.  It's run by the UN, after all.

It was the executive summary of the IPCC report.  Try http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/02_02_07_climatereport.pdf if you want to look at it, you'll find it hard to misinterpret the likes of "warming of the climate system is now unequivocal" and the section of 'discernable human influences' on page 8.

If you want to look at the scientific reports, a report published on the eve of the IPCC report in Science stated that the IPCC was underestimating climate change and being too conservative in its conclusion.

Also, I'm guessing if I pointed out any source you'd find complaints.  The IPCC, which considers hundreds of pieces of research, is 'political'.  If I pick out an individual scientist, you'll invent some magic dissenter without any reference.  If I point out an ecological group, they'll become political too.  Anything, in reality, so you can avoid tackling the conclusions made on a scientific level.

Quote
From Wikipedia:

"In the 1970s, there was increasing awareness that estimates of global temperatures showed cooling since 1945. The general public had little awareness about carbon dioxide's effects: at the time garbage, chemical disposal, smog, particulate pollution, and acid rain were the focus of public concern, although Paul R. Ehrlich mentions climate change from the greenhouse gases in 1968. Not long after the idea of global cooling reached the public press in the mid-1970s, the temperature trend stopped going down."

So the temperature was decreasing from 1945 to 1970, at least.  And the temperature has been increasing from 1970 to today.  I made the mistake of sensationalizing the trend (cooling = Ice Age), but by the same token, the global warming activists should be wary of making the similar mistake (warming = catastrophe).

Wikipedia?

See my previous comment about reading the links I posted in the prior post; may I add that I love how anyone publicising (or performing) research indicating dangerous climatological change has now been labelled as an activist by you?  Also, the 1945-70 period is regarded as a cooling blip in an overall warming trend, and one which was predominantly in the Northern Hemisphere.

Perhaps, to also examine wikipedia, I might point out the following parts of the 'Global Cooling' page;
Quote
1970s Awareness

Concern peaked in the early 1970s, partly because of the cooling trend then apparent (a cooling period began in 1945, and two decades of a cooling trend suggested a trough had been reached after several decades of warming), and partly because much less was then known about world climate and causes of ice ages. Although there was a cooling trend then, it should be realised that climate scientists were perfectly well aware that predictions based on this trend were not possible - because the trend was poorly studied and not understood (for example see reference[8]). However in the popular press the possibility of cooling was reported generally without the caveats present in the scientific reports.

The term "global cooling" did not become attached to concerns about an impending glacial period until after the term "global warming" was popularized. In the 1970s the compilation of records to produce hemispheric, or global, temperature records had just begun.

A history of the discovery of global warming states that: While neither scientists nor the public could be sure in the 1970s whether the world was warming or cooling, people were increasingly inclined to believe that global climate was on the move, and in no small way.[9]

In 1972 Emiliani warned "Man's activity may either precipitate this new ice age or lead to substantial or even total melting of the ice caps".[10] By 1972 a large majority of a group of leading glacial-epoch experts at a conference agreed that "the natural end of our warm epoch is undoubtedly near";[11] but the volume of Quaternary Research reporting on the meeting said that "the basic conclusion to be drawn from the discussions in this section is that the knowledge necessary for understanding the mechanism of climate change is still lamentably inadequate". Unless there were impacts from future human activity, they thought that serious cooling "must be expected within the next few millennia or even centuries"; but many other scientists doubted these conclusions.[12][13]


1970 SCEP report

The 1970 "Study of Critical Environmental Problems"[14] reported the possibility of warming from increased carbon dioxide, but no concerns about cooling, setting a lower bound on the beginning of interest in "global cooling".

You can examine that in more detail should you choose.

 

Offline Mefustae

  • 210
  • Chevron locked...
I wonder how much it'll take for people to start getting worried. I mean, we only started getting worried about the ozone hole when we actually saw the damn thing floating around the southern hemisphere, so I just wonder at what point even the most stalwart opponent to Global Warming will admit they may be wrong? The complete bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef perhaps? A waterlevel rise of 1 metre and the subsequent creation of 100,000 refugees from the South Pacific alone? Or perhaps a massive release of frozen methane hydrate from the oceans resulting in a repeat of the Permian extinction?

Who knows, eh?

 

Offline aldo_14

  • Gunnery Control
  • 213
I wonder how much it'll take for people to start getting worried. I mean, we only started getting worried about the ozone hole when we actually saw the damn thing floating around the southern hemisphere, so I just wonder at what point even the most stalwart opponent to Global Warming will admit they may be wrong? The complete bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef perhaps? A waterlevel rise of 1 metre and the subsequent creation of 100,000 refugees from the South Pacific alone? Or perhaps a massive release of frozen methane hydrate from the oceans resulting in a repeat of the Permian extinction?

Who knows, eh?

Well, I'm sure you'll still be able to get a tax break on a hummer, so it's not all bad.......

 

Offline Nuclear1

  • 211
Quote
Patently ridiculous.  Are you going to debate, or would you rather toss strawmen around?


Ok, got any proof that I'm wrong?

I would like to see where in religious right or Christian doctrine it says that American policy should focus on destroying the world through environmental reasons.
Spoon - I stand in awe by your flawless fredding. Truely, never before have I witnessed such magnificant display of beamz.
Axem -  I don't know what I'll do with my life now. Maybe I'll become a Nun, or take up Macrame. But where ever I go... I will remember you!
Axem - Sorry to post again when I said I was leaving for good, but something was nagging me. I don't want to say it in a way that shames the campaign but I think we can all agree it is actually.. incomplete. It is missing... Voice Acting.
Quanto - I for one would love to lend my beautiful singing voice into this wholesome project.
Nuclear1 - I want a duet.
AndrewofDoom - Make it a trio!

 

Offline aldo_14

  • Gunnery Control
  • 213
Quote
Patently ridiculous.  Are you going to debate, or would you rather toss strawmen around?


Ok, got any proof that I'm wrong?

I would like to see where in religious right or Christian doctrine it says that American policy should focus on destroying the world through environmental reasons.

I remember - vaguely, may I add - a survey that shown a shocking number (granted, this would be any number >1, but I'm pretty sure it was a substantial number) of Senators actually believed in the/a Rapture and thus didn't care about the planet as God would gift a new one.

Albeit I don't think the current US right (not sure the Democrats qualify as 'left', may I add) are intent on destroying the planet to bring about a new one - I just think they don't give a ****, particularly when Exxon & Texaco pay better than Greenpeace & FOTE.  Not, of course, an usual scenario in any country - but a pronounced one in the worlds greatest polluter*.

*Until china catch up

 

Offline DeepSpace9er

  • Bakha bombers rule
  • 28
  • Avoid the beam and you wont get hit
You can demonize Exxon all you want, but keep in mind that without their shipping, piping, refining to gas stations all around the country every single day there would be no economy in the US.

  

Offline aldo_14

  • Gunnery Control
  • 213
You can demonize Exxon all you want, but keep in mind that without their shipping, piping, refining to gas stations all around the country every single day there would be no economy in the US.

That doesn't mean they shouldn't be subject to regulation or not take responsibility for environmental damage caused by their business, same as any other.  And somehow i doubt imposing anti-pollution legislation would destroy all these companies.

 

Offline Agent_Koopa

  • 28
  • These words make the page load that much slower.
I remember - vaguely, may I add - a survey that shown a shocking number (granted, this would be any number >1, but I'm pretty sure it was a substantial number) of Senators actually believed in the/a Rapture and thus didn't care about the planet as God would gift a new one.

I hardly believe that they think the Rapture will be close enough as to serve as a viable strategy. If Judgement Day is that close, then what's the point of being a Senator?
Interestingly enough, this signature is none of the following:
A witty remark on whatever sad state of affairs the world may or may not be in
A series of localized forum in-jokes
A clever and self-referential comment on the nature of signatures themselves.

Hobo Queens are Crowned, but Hobo Kings are Found.

 

Offline aldo_14

  • Gunnery Control
  • 213
I remember - vaguely, may I add - a survey that shown a shocking number (granted, this would be any number >1, but I'm pretty sure it was a substantial number) of Senators actually believed in the/a Rapture and thus didn't care about the planet as God would gift a new one.

I hardly believe that they think the Rapture will be close enough as to serve as a viable strategy. If Judgement Day is that close, then what's the point of being a Senator?

To help Gods work?

No-one ever said Fundies were rational.......

 

Offline Agent_Koopa

  • 28
  • These words make the page load that much slower.
Heh, in my brief Google search to find aldo_14's poll, look what I found!  All Christians, you will be UNABLE TO PLAY FREESPACE IN HEAVEN!

The site is actually rather creepy.
Interestingly enough, this signature is none of the following:
A witty remark on whatever sad state of affairs the world may or may not be in
A series of localized forum in-jokes
A clever and self-referential comment on the nature of signatures themselves.

Hobo Queens are Crowned, but Hobo Kings are Found.

 

Offline Goober5000

  • HLP Loremaster
  • 214
    • Goober5000 Productions
Now that I have the time to address this in detail...

It's not possible to plausibly estimate the global mean before 1600
Of course it is.  You don't have to be actually present with a time machine and a thermometer.  You can measure the rate of growth of oceanic plants in temperature-sensitive areas.  You can examine archeological evidence in mountain passes that were only accessible during warmer time periods.  And so on.

Quote
And let's not forget the role of global dimming in masking the actual rise.  Also, IIRC the middle-ages warm period was localized to europe (and in any case may have been correlated to the medieval maximum in solar activity; solar activity has been theorised as contributing to global climate change, also said theory also decided that the effect was les than that of greenhouse gases).
Actually, two of those are inaccurate and one is incorrect.  Global brightness is not the only solar factor contributing to climate change; the medieval warm period affected China in addition to Europe; and solar activity may have more of an effect than greenhouse gases.

Here is another interesting article:

Quote
When politicians and journalists declare that the science of global warming is settled, they show a regrettable ignorance about how science works. We were treated to another dose of it recently when the experts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued the Summary for Policymakers that puts the political spin on an unfinished scientific dossier on climate change due for publication in a few months’ time. They declared that most of the rise in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to man-made greenhouse gases.

The small print explains “very likely” as meaning that the experts who made the judgment felt 90% sure about it. Older readers may recall a press conference at Harwell in 1958 when Sir John Cockcroft, Britain’s top nuclear physicist, said he was 90% certain that his lads had achieved controlled nuclear fusion. It turned out that he was wrong. More positively, a 10% uncertainty in any theory is a wide open breach for any latterday Galileo or Einstein to storm through with a better idea. That is how science really works.

The climate change is not uniform around the globe:
Quote
The early arrival of migrant birds in spring provides colourful evidence for a recent warming of the northern lands. But did anyone tell you that in east Antarctica the Adélie penguins and Cape petrels are turning up at their spring nesting sites around nine days later than they did 50 years ago? While sea-ice has diminished in the Arctic since 1978, it has grown by 8% in the Southern Ocean.

Cosmic rays may have more of an impact than solar brightness:
Quote
Disdain for the sun goes with a failure by the self-appointed greenhouse experts to keep up with inconvenient discoveries about how the solar variations control the climate. The sun’s brightness may change too little to account for the big swings in the climate. But more than 10 years have passed since Henrik Svensmark in Copenhagen first pointed out a much more powerful mechanism.

He saw from compilations of weather satellite data that cloudiness varies according to how many atomic particles are coming in from exploded stars. More cosmic rays, more clouds. The sun’s magnetic field bats away many of the cosmic rays, and its intensification during the 20th century meant fewer cosmic rays, fewer clouds, and a warmer world. On the other hand the Little Ice Age was chilly because the lazy sun let in more cosmic rays, leaving the world cloudier and gloomier.

The only trouble with Svensmark’s idea — apart from its being politically incorrect — was that meteorologists denied that cosmic rays could be involved in cloud formation. After long delays in scraping together the funds for an experiment, Svensmark and his small team at the Danish National Space Center hit the jackpot in the summer of 2005.

In a box of air in the basement, they were able to show that electrons set free by cosmic rays coming through the ceiling stitched together droplets of sulphuric acid and water. These are the building blocks for cloud condensation. But journal after journal declined to publish their report; the discovery finally appeared in the Proceedings of the Royal Society late last year.


Quote
If you read the (particularly 2nd) links I posted earlier, it should help clear up you misunderstanding of what was being predicted in the 70s, and where the limitations of the science and research lay.  I'd note that the attitude of 'we got it wrong* 20 years ago, hence can never be right' is one that flies in the face of both common sense and scientific endeavour.
I read them.  They clarified some things, but my point is still valid.  If we were wrong before, we should take care that we are not wrong now.

Quote
I think you misunderstand the issue; the earth will survive, humanity will - already is - be put under great pressure to survive.  Not in our lifetimes, yes, but if we don't act to counteract something which there is already very strong scientific evidence for then we will have pushed ourselves past a point of no return.  Every climatological assessment over the last decade or so has pointed to increasing, not decreasing change.  We're already seeing record droughts in Africa - just because it doesn't touch you or my cosy little industrialized nation doesn't mean people aren't suffering, and it doesn't mean we can't sit on our arse waiting for the responsibility to pass onto the next generation - because there is a great harm in waiting 20 years.
I don't believe -- and neither do a significant number of scientists -- that we are approaching a point of no return, nor that the climate change we're experiencing is particularly remarkable.  The earth undergoes a number of major temperature shifts, interspersed with a number of minor temperature shifts.  If we're in a shift right now, it's a minor one.  Human influence is irrelevant.  We can't accelerate the change, and neither can we decelerate it.  What we can do is deal with it as it comes.  If there is a drought in Africa, then let's bring water to Africa.  Let's not spin our wheels trying to move mountains.

Quote
And the whole 'sit back and be doomed' is simply an idiotic statement to make.  I expect better from you.
You're misinterpreting my comments again.  I said that there is no need to take action right now, at this very point in time.  If we have 100 years to wait, we can afford to take a little time to study the phenomena more.  If we're already past the point of no return, then there's no point in doing anything anyway.  My point was that, whichever you believe, there is no need to take action immediately.


Quote
It was the executive summary of the IPCC report.
Indeed.  What reputable scientific body releases their conclusions first, then waits three months to release the data that backs it up?

Quote
Try http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/02_02_07_climatereport.pdf if you want to look at it, you'll find it hard to misinterpret the likes of "warming of the climate system is now unequivocal" and the section of 'discernable human influences' on page 8.

If you want to look at the scientific reports, a report published on the eve of the IPCC report in Science stated that the IPCC was underestimating climate change and being too conservative in its conclusion.

Actually, previous IPCC reports have committed significant statistical errors:
http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=12088

Quote
By how much did the IPCC overestimate the likely economic growth of poorer nations over the next century? For poorer nations as a whole to catch wealthier nations in economic output this century would require that average incomes on the entire continent of Asia increase over the next 100 years by a factor of 70 to 1 for the IPCC’s least-warming scenario, and 140 to 1 for its most-warming scenario.

Such dramatic economic growth by even a single country--let alone an entire continent--would be unprecedented, notes Castles. Examining growth rates in wealthier countries during their most dynamic periods of economic growth, Castles points out that “average real incomes in the United States increased by a factor of perhaps 5 to 1 in the nineteenth century, and average real incomes in Japan increased by a factor of almost 20 to 1 in the twentieth century.”

Quote
A second flaw in the IPCC story lines, according to Castles, is an underlying assumption that the greenhouse gas intensity per unit of global economic growth will remain as high as it is today. He documents that greenhouse gas intensity has been declining for quite some time.

“In Britain, the first developed country, average carbon dioxide emissions exceeded 2.5 tonnes of carbon per head of the population in 1880, before the motor age began. Now Britain produces at least five times the volume of goods and services per head as in 1880, but per capita emissions of carbon dioxide have not increased at all.” The carbon intensity per unit of economic production has fallen dramatically in Britain over the past 120 years.

Quote
Even before the statistical flaws in the IPCC assumptions were discovered, common sense should have dictated taking the projections with a grain of salt. The projected warming depended on numerous implausible and striking assumptions about the twenty-first century economic growth of developing nations.

For example, under even the most conservative story lines, the IPCC assumes that by the year 2100, per-capita GDP in the U.S. will be surpassed by the per-capita GDP of such countries as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Libya, Algeria, Tunisia, and Argentina. The more extreme story lines assume that by the year 2100 U.S. per-capita GDP will fall behind even more disadvantaged nations than these.

This is from 2003.  In 2005, a scientist resigned due to concerns over how the IPCC was being politicized and fudging data to conform to its expectations:
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/science_policy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html

Quote
...a scientist with an important role in the IPCC represented himself as a Lead Author for the IPCC has used that position to promulgate to the media and general public his own opinion that the busy 2004 hurricane season was caused by global warming, which is in direct opposition to research written in the field and is counter to conclusions in the TAR.

I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process that I view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being scientifically unsound. As the IPCC leadership has seen no wrong in Dr. Trenberth's actions and have retained him as a Lead Author for the AR4, I have decided to no longer participate in the IPCC AR4.

The 2007 summary report contains flaws as well:
http://motls.blogspot.com/2007_02_01_archive.html

Quote
Where is the scientific work itself? As we have explained in IPCC AR4, the climate scientists have improved the scientific method a little bit. In the past, scientists had to do their research before the implications for policymaking could have been derived from this research. It was very slow and inefficient. Who would like to wait for those slow scientists when all of us know from the media by now that the burning Earth is already evaporating?

Today, the vastly superior postmodern scientific method of the IPCC members allows them to publish the summary for policymakers first. As they told us (the precise quote can be found in the article under the IPCC AR4 link above), the technical justification - the scientific work itself - will be adjusted to agree with whatever conclusions for policymaking we hear today. The scientific report of the first working group will be released in May, more than 3 months into the future. We will have the opportunity to compare how it differs from the second-order draft linked in the previous sentence.

The error bars in their summary are smaller than before, including the error bars for their 2090-2099 predictions. Because the temperature and other quantities in 2090-2099 depend on many things that clearly can't be predicted - especially the scientific and technological breakthroughs of the 21st century - it is not hard to see that their 10% accuracy is completely unrealistic.

They don't seem to understand (or agree) that there exist various types of errors, especially systematic errors, and the statistical distribution of the outcomes of their computer game is just one source of the error among many.

Also, the report has changed some standards how to evaluate the confidence in science. Instead of 95% or 99% confidence intervals, they use 90% confidence. The probability that "A" (anthropogenic) belongs to "GW" (global warming) is 90%, the report effectively says: the verbal form of "more than 90%" is "very likely", according to a footnote. In all other branches of science, such a "high" confidence level would be viewed as a hint to start to consider a speculative hypothesis as a remote possibility: even the recent Higgs signal has a higher confidence. In climate science, 90% (calculated by not exceedingly transparent methods) is apparently enough to close the debate.

The procedures even state that the data will be adjusted to conform to the summary!
Quote
Changes (other than grammatical or minor editorial changes) made after acceptance by the Working Group or the Panel shall be those necessary to ensure consistency with the Summary for Policymakers or the Overview Chapter.

More specific citations of statistical flaws:
Quote
Because the summary for policymakers is a Holy Scripture and the researchers now have 3 months to make the full report consistent, it is clear that they will have to change some rules of mathematics. Open the SPM, go to the page 5 of 21 and you will find Table SPM-0 there. The fifth line claims to be the sum of the previous four contributions to the sea level rise. However, for example in the 1993-2003 column, it would require 0.16+0.077+0.21+0.21 to be equal to 0.28 instead of 0.657. Note that with the value 0.657, the predicted value would differ from the observed value by more than five observed sigmas.

Also, the sum of four terms seems to be 5-10 times more accurate than the error of the Antarctic contribution. What a miraculous way of adding things! An average climate scientist would fix these problems simply by adding some random zeros to the Greenland or Antarctic contribution, to obtain an agreement. However, you can't mess up with the summary, a Holy Scripture. So what must happen according to their rules is that the full report will prove that 0.16+0.077+0.21+0.21 = 0.28. I am sure that they will find some climate scientists if not mathematicians who will defend the consensus that this sum is different than your calculator would expect. I hope that many people will be looking forward to this new breakthrough in mathematics proving that the climate change is more catastrophic and the underlying science is more solid than anyone has ever anticipated.

Correct answer? Hint: the Antarctic contribution is actually significantly negative but it wouldn't sound too good to the policymakers.

Error via Sean Davis (sum) and Stuart Staniford (error margin), readers of RealClimate. The sum-error was confirmed to be a bug by Stefan Rahmstorf.

Quote
Also, I'm guessing if I pointed out any source you'd find complaints.  The IPCC, which considers hundreds of pieces of research, is 'political'.  If I pick out an individual scientist, you'll invent some magic dissenter without any reference.  If I point out an ecological group, they'll become political too.  Anything, in reality, so you can avoid tackling the conclusions made on a scientific level.
Naturally, whichever source you or I cite, there will always be someone who disagrees with it.  However, I hope you now realize that the IPCC report cannot be trusted as an informed scientific document.

Quote
Wikipedia?
Only because I had little time last night to do more than summarize.  I have more time today.

Quote
Quote
The 1970 "Study of Critical Environmental Problems"[14] reported the possibility of warming from increased carbon dioxide, but no concerns about cooling, setting a lower bound on the beginning of interest in "global cooling".

You can examine that in more detail should you choose.
Noted.


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


I remember - vaguely, may I add - a survey that shown a shocking number (granted, this would be any number >1, but I'm pretty sure it was a substantial number) of Senators actually believed in the/a Rapture
They're entitled to their belief.

Quote
and thus didn't care about the planet as God would gift a new one.
That's a false conclusion.  The earth will be restored, yes, but in the meantime we have responsibility, as God's stewards of the planet, to take care of it.  God is very harsh with stewards who treat their jobs with contempt.


-------------------------------------


That doesn't mean they shouldn't be subject to regulation or not take responsibility for environmental damage caused by their business, same as any other.  And somehow i doubt imposing anti-pollution legislation would destroy all these companies.
Imposing anti-pollution legislation is not a win-win scenario.  Often, it causes more problems than it solves.  For example, the Hummer is cheaper and leaves less of an energy footprint than most hybrids.

From Reason:

Quote
Spinella spent two years on the most comprehensive study to date – dubbed "Dust to Dust" -- collecting data on the energy necessary to plan, build, sell, drive and dispose of a car from the initial conception to scrappage. He even included in the study such minutia as plant-to-dealer fuel costs of each vehicle, employee driving distances, and electricity usage per pound of material. All this data was then boiled down to an "energy cost per mile" figure for each car (see here and here).  Comparing this data, the study concludes that overall hybrids cost more in terms of overall energy consumed than comparable non-hybrid vehicles. But even more surprising, smaller hybrids' energy costs are greater than many large, non-hybrid SUVs.

For instance, the dust-to-dust energy cost of the bunny-sized Honda Civic hybrid is $3.238 per mile. This is quite a bit more than the $1.949 per mile that the elephantine Hummer costs. The energy cots of SUVs such as the Tahoe, Escalade, and Navigator are similarly far less than the Civic hybrid.  As for Ford cars, a Ford Escape hybrid costs $3.2 per mile – about a third more than the regular Escape. But on the whole, ironically enough, the dust-to-dust costs of many of the Ford non-hybrids – Fusion, Milan, Zephyr – are not only lower than comparable Japanese hybrids – Prius, Accord -- but also non-hybrids – Seville, Civic.

...

As for Hummers, Spinella explains, the life of these cars averaged across various models is over 300,000 miles. By contrast, Prius' life – according to Toyota's own numbers – is 100,000 miles. Furthermore, Hummer is a far less sophisticated vehicle. Its engine obviously does not have an electric and gas component as a hybrid's does so it takes much less time and energy to manufacture. What's more, its main raw ingredient is low-cost steel, not the exotic light-weights that are exceedingly difficult to make – and dispose. But the biggest reason why a Hummer's energy use is so low is that it shares many components with other vehicles and therefore its design and development energy costs are spread across many cars.

Also, government regulations are negatively impacting car manufacturers.  California, for example, requires that 10 percent of all vehicles sold after 2003 be zero-emissions vehicles, though it grants equivalency credits to partial-emissions vehicles like hybrids.  Unfortunately, this has a serious impact on profitability -- Ford loses an estimated $2000 to $3000 for each hybrid it sells, because it has to sell below cost in order to entice customers who still prefer traditional cars.