[Kosh]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/opinion/21krugman.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin


Thought it was pretty interesting. Thoughts?

[ShadowGorrath]

*starts spreading panic*

I guess here's when the FreeSpace storyline begins - we'll research and start mining, then colonising other planets/moons of our Sol system.

[BlackDove]

Well whenever we run out of planet, we can always use your mom as a spare.

Okay, okay, that was a bad joke. Wonder Woman doesn't like it when I do it either.

Seriously though, I'm 3rd all the way. DOOOOOOOOOOOOM!

[Hellstryker]

Nah, certainly not doom, but our standard of living is going to go way down the drain for about a hundred years until colonies on mars and the moon start thriving.

[Flipside]

To be honest, as has been said before, it's not that we are running amazingly low, it just gets more expensive to get the stuff.

It will eventually get to a saturation point where a company will simply have to accept lower profit ratios if they want to stay in business. I don't doubt they will kick up one hell of a stink about it and try not to, but at the end of the day, that is what it will boil down to.

[DeepSpace9er]

There is plenty of oil now.. just not politically correct to extract it. I would like to see some viable alternatives that dont require wasting corn on fuel or anything completely ridiculous like that, without the increase of oil cost at the same time. Alternatives will become viable when the technology is available for cheap deployment, but not at the cost of the economy by artificially inflating oil prices to shift to alternatives. That is foolishness.

[Hellstryker]

There is plenty of oil now.. just not politically correct to extract it. I would like to see some viable alternatives that dont require wasting corn on fuel or anything completely ridiculous like that, without the increase of oil cost at the same time. Alternatives will become viable when the technology is available for cheap deployment, but not at the cost of the economy by artificially inflating oil prices to shift to alternatives. That is foolishness.

The tech is already out there, oil companies simply don't want to lose control

[IceFire]

Well written article.  I liked it and particularly how the three scenarios are played out.  A combination 2nd and 3rd scenario seem likely to me.  We've spread far and wide across the planet...we can't keep expanding without more planet, another planet, or we simply decline a bit and manage at an acceptable level.  Up until the beginning of the 20th century population was relatively stable for a very long time...but in the last 80 or so years we've shot up like a rocket.

[BlackDove]

You know what that means.

WE NEED ANOTHER WAR!

[IceFire]

Yeah like that helped the last time

Population dipped during the war and then afterwards everyone came home and got to making babies...LOTS of babies.

[Kosh]

There is plenty of oil now.. just not politically correct to extract it.

So you said in another thread, but I asked you where you were getting your info and you didn't answer. If you look at a graph of the number of wells drilled in the US compared with total US oil production, you can see there is a pattern. Read it and weep.




Also considering that Russia just hit their peak oil production and Mexico's oil production is rapidly declining, I think there is more going on here than just environmental concerns.

[Hellstryker]

Such as? I don't like where this is going...

[Kosh]

Here's another tidbit:

On April 13, Reuters reported the following from Riyadh:

    Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth in the world's top exporter for future generations…

    "When there were some new finds, I told them, 'no, leave it in the ground, with grace from god, our children need it'," King Abdullah said…

    Saudi production capacity stands at around 11.3 million bpd, and is scheduled to rise to 12.5 million bpd next year.

The King’s remarks seem to confirm a statement made last year by Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi who, when asked “How high can your production go?” replied, “We’ll get to 12.5 million barrels a day and then we’ll see.”

If the Saudi announcement was a bombshell, American nearly newspapers ignored it.

Looks like 12.5 mbpd is Saudi Arabia's new ceiling. Below that in the article there are several comments about this by people who know what they are talking about, here's one:

Jeremy Gilbert, BP’s retired chief petroleum engineer:

“I have no idea whether there was a real choice for the Saudis to make. Perhaps it's all 'spin'; perhaps there were discoveries, but there was some property of the reservoirs which made them very difficult to develop, and it made sense to delay development until improved technology or much higher prices arrived; perhaps it's the plain basic truth - a very rare commodity.

“What I do know is that several countries in the Gulf have long chosen to operate their fields with depletion rates far below those that a Western company would consider optimal, or even sensible. Depletion rates of between 1 and 2%/ per year are not uncommon in the United Arab Emirates. Local leaders have repeatedly said that they feel an obligation to preserve some of their natural resources. These feelings must be intensified when their recent production has been sold for US dollars which have depreciated by 25% or more against other strong world currencies over the last four years.

“The countries around the Gulf, which would once have come to the aid of a faltering U.S., now are either delighted about the U.S. plight or just don't care. They are not going to do anything to reduce world oil prices. Instead, they are going to maximize their economic take while minimizing depletion of their sole natural resource.”

So there you have it.

Such as? I don't like where this is going...

Nor should you. Which country do you live in?

[DeepSpace9er]

ANWR.

By the way, drilling for more wells doesnt necessarily produce more oil. I can drill an oil well in my backyard. Doesnt mean its going to produce much...

[Kosh]

Ok so how much oil is in ANWR?


EDIT: Here's the best number I could find: 10.3 billion barrels. Seems like a lot, doesn't it? But in reality, it isn't that much.

Repost from another guy on a different board:
Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required from the time of approval to explore and develop ANWR to the first production of oil.

From first production to peak will take 3 to 4 more years where the production rate peaks at .9 million barrels per day.

7-12 years to explore and develop

2025 ANWR produces .9 mbpd of oil

By 2025, the US is projected to consume 30 mbpd at a 1.7% annual growth rate.

In 2025, .9 mbpd is 20% of domestic production but only 3% of US demand.


All that for .9 mbpd, whoopdy do.

[Hellstryker]

The united ****s states of america. I don't mean to offend anyone by this, mainly just pointing to the last 8 years

[Roanoke]

There's actually lots of oil stil left. IIRC each well only extracts around 10% of the actual avaliable resources. We just don't have the capability to grab anymore.

[Colonol Dekker]

Harry Stamper.........................Where the hell is Harry Stamper?



I'm inclined towards the second explanation with a tinge of the third applied to it........

[Kosh]

There's actually lots of oil stil left. IIRC each well only extracts around 10% of the actual avaliable resources. We just don't have the capability to grab anymore.

Oil production follows a bell curve. As I understand it (correct me if I'm wrong on this) peak oil production occurs when most of the light crude oil on the top of the reserve gets sucked out, leaving an increasingly high percentage of heavy, high sulfur, hard to get at oil.

Fact is the production bell curve follows the discovery bell curve. World wide oil discovery peaked in the mid 60's and has been on a major decline ever since, as the following graph shows.

[jdjtcagle]

* ...is so sick of oil!

* needs to get oil changed... will it ever end?