[Kosh]

This is a Really Bad Thing tm

The theory of peak oil holds that at some point — a year from now, a decade — global production of crude will peak, possibly plateau and then inexorably decline. On the eve of the Offshore Technology Conference here, the latest production figures for non-OPEC sources, 60 percent of global supply, indicate output has stalled at about 50 million barrels a day.

The flat production is particularly worrisome, because it comes at a time of record-high prices that ordinarily would stimulate production growth. As that has not occurred, the world's capacity to produce oil from conventional sources might have been reached.

Keep in mind that OPEC stated last week it wasn't going to raise production by any meaningful amount. Expect higher gas prices for a good long time.


Maybe we finally reached the peak (or are very close to it)...........

[Mefustae]

Not my problem. Public transport jockey, I am.

Not to mention i'll be a full-fledged geologist in a year or so, so everything's coming up rosy for me!

[Kosh]

Not my problem. Public transport jockey, I am.

Not to mention i'll be a full-fledged geologist in a year or so, so everything's coming up rosy for me!

How industrialized is your country's (I forgot where you're from) agriculture?

[Mefustae]

Sydney, FYI.

If anything's going to **** with our agriculture, it's the lack of water. Not to mention considerable overpopulation of my state in terms of sustainable population. Anyway, we've got a few untapped reserves lying around, and our consumption is only marginally suicidal.

But that's the future, this is now, that's a chair, and i'm going to bed.

[Kosh]

Sydney, FYI.

If anything's going to **** with our agriculture, it's the lack of water. Not to mention considerable overpopulation of my state in terms of sustainable population. Anyway, we've got a few untapped reserves lying around, and our consumption is only marginally suicidal.

But that's the future, this is now, that's a chair, and i'm going to bed.

It does matter because in nations with highly industrialized agriculture depend a huge amount on oil to grow food. The pesticides that are sprayed over the vast fields are all made from oil. In addition the farm machinery uses lots of oil, transporting the food from the field to be processed uses oil, and taking the processed food to your local supermarket uses oil. That's industrialized agriculture: it all depends on oil.

[Sarafan]

Not my problem. Public transport jockey, I am.

Not to mention i'll be a full-fledged geologist in a year or so, so everything's coming up rosy for me!

 

Are you already past the point where you have to learn the name of every single piece/type of rock?

[Nuclear1]

Ha!

*lives in Califotnia  on a military base (ie a bubble) and has everything he needs within a thirty minute walking distance*

[NGTM-1R]

Keep in mind that OPEC stated last week it wasn't going to raise production by any meaningful amount. Expect higher gas prices for a good long time.

Maybe we finally reached the peak (or are very close to it).........

Nope, not yet. Brazil for example is developing some very large offshore fields, but that takes several years to complete. OPEC is refusing to up production because most of them can't manage it; they don't have the infrastructure or the manpower to do so.

There's no basic shortages, sorry.

[Sarafan]

Keep in mind that OPEC stated last week it wasn't going to raise production by any meaningful amount. Expect higher gas prices for a good long time.

Maybe we finally reached the peak (or are very close to it).........

Nope, not yet. Brazil for example is developing some very large offshore fields, but that takes several years to complete. OPEC is refusing to up production because most of them can't manage it; they don't have the infrastructure or the manpower to do so.

There's no basic shortages, sorry.

Yeah, those fields are in the Campos Bay, IIRC they were huge.

[Kosh]

OPEC is refusing to up production because most of them can't manage it; they don't have the infrastructure or the manpower to do so.

Link?

Nope, not yet. Brazil for example is developing some very large offshore fields,

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aoC91kszkcf4&refer=home

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's plan to become one of the world's biggest oil exporters hinges on exploiting crude 6 miles below the ocean surface in deposits so hot they can melt the metal used to carry uranium to nuclear plants.

Tapping what may be the biggest oil finds in the Western Hemisphere in three decades will require equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per square inch of pressure, enough to crush a pickup truck, pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above 500 degrees Fahrenheit (260 Celsius) and drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more than one mile thick.

The technical challenges are not impossible, but daunting. Either way it wont be cheap, not by a longshot.

[IceFire]

Its going to happen one day or another.  The smart thing to do is prepare now...regionalize sources of agriculture and work on alternative fuel sources before the whole economy comes collapsing down.  Might still be 30 years away...impossible to know what peak oil is until after its on its way down.

[NGTM-1R]

OPEC is refusing to up production because most of them can't manage it; they don't have the infrastructure or the manpower to do so.

Link?

I'll spare you the twenty-odd links to wikipedia on population statistics for the states around the Arabian Gulf and point out that the oilfields there are run by people, primarily Pakistanis, who were brought in from outside for the purpose while the locals just got rich. They've been increasing production for years but not building new infrastructure or hiring new people (the locals don't want to do that kind of work, and they've found that bringing in outsiders to do it is apparently a bad idea); it was inevitable they would run out of the ability to produce more regardless of how much remains.

[Kosh]

it was inevitable they would run out of the ability to produce more regardless of how much remains.

But that's just it: How much remains? OPEC has been fudging the numbers on their reserves for decades now so it's impossible to know just how much really is left.


Do you have any links about investment?