Author Topic: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?  (Read 5808 times)

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Offline Maniax

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Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
I recently got into an argument with a friend over the expansion of the universe and astronomy in general, which centered over what good any of our scientific observations about the universe actually are.  He made the claim that "no long-term predictions made with science as a base have yet to pan out."  He was citing faulty climate change projections and oil estimations from the 70s as evidence, which I didn't find too relevant to the astronomy discussion, but even still it got me thinking about what 'long-term' predictions of science in general have indeed been confirmed true?  I think I know some, such as those made by general relativity, but I'm not sure if that's one of the better examples out there. 

Does anyone have some really obvious ones that are staring me in the face but I can't see them?

 

Offline FUBAR-BDHR

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
E=MC^2 ring a bell?

If you really want to go long term how about flight?  Didn't De Vinci predict that?  Or Earth revolving around the sun.  That took quite a while to prove. 


« Last Edit: August 01, 2008, 08:02:15 pm by FUBAR-BDHR »
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Offline WMCoolmon

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
How long-term are we talking?

But given that he's starting with that as a base, I would just find a way to gracefully quit talking to him about the subject. He obviously has no concept of science whatsoever and needs to take some science classes on his own or read a good book (A really, really good book) on science. Either that, or he's playing ignorant for the sake of jerking you around.

Science will always be wrong and that's the whole point of science. An "atom" is the fundamental building block of matter. Oh no, what's that? Well I guess it isn't. But it works well for our purposes, so let's keep on using that model for this stuff, and use the more advanced model for the really advanced stuff, like quantum physics.

There's no point in bashing science for being wrong because science will always be wrong. Science is not God. Science is not omnipotent. Science is the idea that we're going to make a guess at how things work out and if it's wrong we'll change it and come up with a new explanation.

At the point that science knows everything and can predict everything with 100% accuracy, it's not science anymore, it's just plain ol' knowledge.

I would say that so far, the sun hasn't exploded. The planets have remained in much the same orbits. The planets have been where people thought they would be. The astronomical phenomenon that people have discovered have been postulated beforehand in some cases (black holes) and explained afterwards in others (pulsars). Gravity has remained unchanged. As FUBAR implicitly referenced, relativity has been proven largely correct. Sound waves continue to travel through air. Light waves continue to bounce off of objects in much the same way that they have for centuries. And you know what? Science would predict that all of these things would happen.

But science isn't about some guy in a lab coat coming up with equations out of thin air. Something that's an official scientific theory has been proven through experiments. Meaning, the prediction has already come true. Anything that isn't proven is just a hypotheses. And you can have a lot of hypotheses for the same thing. So, at the point that we're all dead because of global warming, someone can state that, yes, it is a proven scientific theory that global warming is a danger to the human race. Up until that point it's still just an experiment-in-progress.

But even then you might have people who would dispute the evidence and provide reasonable reasons that the findings of the evidence weren't correct.
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Offline NGTM-1R

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Does anyone have some really obvious ones that are staring me in the face but I can't see them?

Aerodynamics. We had workable aircraft designs long before we were able to actually make them fly; we didn't have a power source. You could probably say the same thing about spacecraft.
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Offline General Battuta

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
The atomic bloody bomb.

 

Offline FUBAR-BDHR

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
The atomic bloody bomb.

That is E=MC^2 in action.
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Offline General Battuta

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Yes!

 

Offline castor

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
pi=c/d :P

 

Offline Herra Tohtori

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Existence of neutrinos. Basically theory predicted an extra particle being generated in nuclear reactions than were observed, and (IIRC) Wolfgang Pauli was the one who first suggested that a neutral, very weakly interacting and thus difficult to observe particles were being generated in nuclear reactions. Enrico Fermi termed the hypothesized particles as neutrinos; this happened in the 1930's. Detection of neutrinos was first published in 1956, and although neutrinos have had some surprises to offer to particle physics - primarily, neutrino oscillation - they are essentially pretty much like Pauli hypothesized them to be like.

Formation of solar system from accretion disk around the star. Obviously going to past to check out if this applies to our solar system is right out, but with increasingly powerful telescopes, it's possible to find infantile solar systems in different phases of developement, and the observations seem to in fact suggest that solar systems are born much like hypothesized.

Space-time curvature due to gravity, predicted by general theory of relativity and confirmed with both starlight bending observations during lunar eclipses, gravitational lenses and the travelling perihelion of Mercury's orbit.

Speciation - Darwin pretty much predicted that isolated populations of same species can evolve into separate species, and there have been a number of observed instances of speciation.

Hygiene - especially medical hygiene; Semmelweis, Lister et al predicted - even without exact knowledge of what was going on - that filthy conditions might have something to do with infections and diseases in general, and it actually worked when it was practiced. Similarly it was predicted that something, whatever you wanna call them, causes diseases and infections, and they aren't in fact the scource of God or somesuch nonsense. And indeed bacteria and viruses and parasites were found when research methods become sophisticated enough to see them.

The (recorded) concept of spherical Earth emerged during the 6th century BCE, and Erastothenes of Cyrene measured the circumference of Earth within 10% error bars. The fact of spherical Earth was ultimately confirmed by Fernão de Magalhães (much like Cristóbal Colón is known as Cristopher Columbus, Magalhães is known as Ferdinand Magellan) when he commited the first recorded sailing trip around the world.

Also, it was long speculated that asteroids and comets might sometimes hit planets, but proof of this was only recorded in large scale when Jupiter was hit by a comet and the event was recorded (it's pretty spectacular footage, too). Dunno if that counts as prediction being confirmed... :p

The problem with really long term predictions is obviously that while it can be predicted very accurately that, for example, Sun will render Earth uninhabitable in 500-1000 million years, it's difficult to confirm that with experimentation in individual cases because of obvious reasons. However, it is possible to observe similar stars in different stages of their developement, build a general model of stellar life cycle based on observations, and predict within certain error bars that the Sun will grow too hot for water to stay liquid on Earth in 500-1000 million years, and that it will continue brightening until at some point about 4.5-5 billion years in future it will expand rapidly, then contract to white dwarf star, likely after blowing it's outer surface into space to form a planetary nebula.

Other predictions? Well, Moore's law seems to be eerily accurate thus far. And while the transportation and life in general is not quite like they envisioned in the 50's (no moon hotels, plastic bubble houses and flying cars), some aspects of society - like computation and communications - have developed surprisingly unsurprisingly. Broadband video calls? Check. Personal communicator devices? Check. Personal communicator devices with video calls? Yeah, very soon. Computation has developed pretty much as expected after the introduction of Moore's law; previous expectations have actually been largely surpassed.
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Offline Mars

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Wait... only 500 million years?

 

Offline Androgeos Exeunt

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Some Russian called Immanuel Velikovsky came up with the theory that certain events in antiquity came about due to the nature of the universe. According to him:

1. The Nile ran blood because Venus broke apart from Jupiter at that time and bypassed Earth, leaving a slipstream of dust and gases;
2. Venus tugged Earth off its axis, giving the Persians three days of light and darkness;
3. Freak electromagnetic and gravitational forces from Venus caused the water on the Red Sea to pile up on both sides;
4. An electric charge came between Earth and Venus, causing the waters of the Red Sea to down the Pharaoh's army;
5. The calendar was revised because Mars came too close to Earth and shared an orbital conflict.

Among these explanations, Velikovsky also said that Venus had a heavier atmosphere and was hotter than Earth, and had a comet-like tail, and that Mars had a surface of craters, and that its atmosphere contained neon and argon.

This theories he put forward in 1950, and everyone derided him because it defied accepted scientific principles and Darwin's theory of an ordered evolution. However, it seems that space travel confirmed his theories.

The abovementioned was taken from The World's Greatest UFO Mysteries, published by Octopus Books. I'm not too certain as to the factual accuracy of their texts...
« Last Edit: August 02, 2008, 09:02:23 am by Androgeos Exeunt »
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Offline Ghostavo

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Depending on how you describe confirmed...

Black holes were described in the late 18th century. Its theoretical evidence was discovered in the early 20th century even though it's own author didn't believe it was real. And from then on more and more theory was added to the point that it was proved that they are a necessary feature in our modern understanding of gravity.

Then almost 200 years after they were first described and over 50 years of its theoretical evidence being discovered, the first black hole was "sighted".
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Offline Androgeos Exeunt

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Did they announce that they discovered 30 billion Earths several years ago?
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Offline karajorma

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Among these explanations, Velikovsky also said that Venus had a heavier atmosphere and was hotter than Earth, and had a comet-like tail, and that Mars had a surface of craters, and that its atmosphere contained neon and argon.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
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Offline Androgeos Exeunt

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

True, that. :yes:

Now that I'm looking at my own post being quoted, I see many instances of "and".
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Offline General Battuta

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Yeah, Androgeos, I gotta say, most of those predictions of his were absurd. But he did get the Venus atmosphere thing right, correct?

 

Offline BloodEagle

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Relativity, as seen in time dilation.

 

Offline Kosh

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Quote
He made the claim that "no long-term predictions made with science as a base have yet to pan out."

Just out of curiosity he doesn't also happen to be somewhat religious (or a republican, or both for that matter), does he?

Quote
Existence of neutrinos.

I'll add to this by mentioning the whole slew of particles that were predicted by the standard model turned out to be dead on, all that's left to find is the higgs-boson.
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Offline FUBAR-BDHR

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
Among these explanations, Velikovsky also said that Venus had a heavier atmosphere and was hotter than Earth, and had a comet-like tail, and that Mars had a surface of craters, and that its atmosphere contained neon and argon.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Unless it's a 24 hour clock or broke by hitting 13.   :pimp:
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Offline Androgeos Exeunt

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Re: Some confirmed long-term scientific predictions?
If a clock strikes thirteen, I might buy it. ;)
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