[NGTM-1R]

Short of Deus Ex Machina overdrive, all evidence is they're going to win.

I'm not so sure about that.
The GTVA can only continue the war as long as the have the backing of their own citicens. And the longer this war with Sol is going and the more GTVA pilots and ships are lost, the more civilians back home in the colonies will wonder why they are even fighting their brothers and sisters.
Should the public opinion ever swing around the GTVA will have little choice but to pull out and try a diplomatic solution I guess.

Furthermore economically the GTVA was in a really bad situation, with all the funds and ressources pumped into the construction of the portal. And now they are fighting a war and that for several month now.
For all we know the GTVA might be only inches away from complete economic collapse.... or not, we simply don't know.
But considering the situation before the war, I'd guess the GTVA can only win the war fast or not at all, unless they get help form the Vasudans (either economically or even military).

Except that, again, militarily, it takes but a small fraction of the GTVA's forces to conduct the war at the low intensity it's being carried out in. Otherwise, it would already be over. The casuality rates and economic cost are going to be very small for the simple fact that they are not conducting large operations.

[Woolie Wool]

Granted, they're probably going to fail, but it's still a crummy situation all around.

Short of Deus Ex Machina overdrive, all evidence is they're going to win.

Not necessarily. The Sol half of the GTA immediately after the split probably started with a much larger industrial base and population as well as a much more sophisticated infrastructure. I'm sure the Lucifer gave Sol system quite a scare, and when contact was lost, for all they knew, they could be the last Terran system left (at least for a few years, anyway, assuming Terran radio communications have not degraded into total indecipherability after traveling all the way from Alpha Centauri and other nearby stars). In such circumstances, it seems logical that the United Earth government would have been pouring every available resource into turning Earth into an impenetrable fortress with the best weaponry money can buy for the last 50 years. Total mobilization, nonstop, for 50 years straight. And remember that all conquests give a significant advantage to the defender. The attacker has to subdue and conquer the defender. The defender only has to give the attacker a hard enough time to make it give up.

[The E]

Except that, in the Blue Planet continuity, they didn't do it that way.

[NGTM-1R]

Not necessarily. The Sol half of the GTA immediately after the split probably started with a much larger industrial base and population as well as a much more sophisticated infrastructure. I'm sure the Lucifer gave Sol system quite a scare, and when contact was lost, for all they knew, they could be the last Terran system left (at least for a few years, anyway, assuming Terran radio communications have not degraded into total indecipherability after traveling all the way from Alpha Centauri and other nearby stars). In such circumstances, it seems logical that the United Earth government would have been pouring every available resource into turning Earth into an impenetrable fortress with the best weaponry money can buy for the last 50 years. Total mobilization, nonstop, for 50 years straight. And remember that all conquests give a significant advantage to the defender. The attacker has to subdue and conquer the defender. The defender only has to give the attacker a hard enough time to make it give up.

You didn't actually read the preview fiction, did you?

[manwiththemachinegun]

Except that, again, militarily, it takes but a small fraction of the GTVA's forces to conduct the war at the low intensity it's being carried out in. Otherwise, it would already be over. The casuality rates and economic cost are going to be very small for the simple fact that they are not conducting large operations.

Pretty much. I imagine the GTVA has horded military power after the destruction of Capella. We've seen up to the Sixteenth battlegroup. That's a lot. Even if that doesn't include the Sol 1st fleet, the GTVA has a lot of firepower in reserve, I'm sure they're just using it to guard their systems and keep order. Thus, only one or two fleets (from what we've seen) are actually leading the attack on Earth.

[Colonol Dekker]

Someone earlier mentioned gtva civil population questioning escalating deaths on the front lines and calling for an end to the war. I for one would like to think that after saving their hides from the Shivans twice that they'd have more faith, failing that i'm sure that the gtva has OCP style spin teams ready to deploy, able to doctor footage and manipulate the media.

[Dilmah G]

Except that, again, militarily, it takes but a small fraction of the GTVA's forces to conduct the war at the low intensity it's being carried out in. Otherwise, it would already be over. The casuality rates and economic cost are going to be very small for the simple fact that they are not conducting large operations.

Pretty much. I imagine the GTVA has horded military power after the destruction of Capella. We've seen up to the Sixteenth battlegroup. That's a lot. Even if that doesn't include the Sol 1st fleet, the GTVA has a lot of firepower in reserve, I'm sure they're just using it to guard their systems and keep order. Thus, only one or two fleets (from what we've seen) are actually leading the attack on Earth.

Yeah, well if I were tasked with part of the strategy of such an invasion, I wouldn't honestly think it NEEDED more than two or three fleets. I mean.. IT'S A SINGLE FRAKKING SYSTEM! The GTVA is in control of like, thirty! And a good Commander always has a reserve for the next threat, who knows where the Shivans will come from next?

[General Battuta]

If you pile all your forces into one system (or even most of them), and a substantial force gets past your blockade and into your own home space, you're going to be in really bad shape, especially if they decide to attack planets directly.

[NGTM-1R]

Yeah, well if I were tasked with part of the strategy of such an invasion, I wouldn't honestly think it NEEDED more than two or three fleets. I mean.. IT'S A SINGLE FRAKKING SYSTEM! The GTVA is in control of like, thirty! And a good Commander always has a reserve for the next threat, who knows where the Shivans will come from next?

On the other hand, with five, you could simply go to Earth orbit with three and leave two to blockade the node, threaten to turn someone's civilization into a parking lot, and probably get a surrender rather than fighting a protacted campaign.

[General Battuta]

Yeah, and then the guys on the ground call your bluff - having high level HUMINT that you need to capture Earth intact - while Mars and Jupiter blast through your node blockade and go on a rampage in the dangerously proximate Beta Aquilae.

That was the original plan, mind, but the defections really screwed the GTVA over. High-level codes, deployment information - counterintel's worst nightmare.

[Dilmah G]

Which is why Plan B should've been "Rip the mother****ers to shreds and repopulate the thing over the next 20 years." Or the more humane option of proposing an alliance, while having your ships parked over Earth in the case of hostilities.

[General Battuta]

Neither of those would have worked for reasons described in the dossier. The first because the GTVA is not the 'bad guys', they wouldn't violate their own conventions like that. The latter because I'm pretty sure the UEF culture itself was considered dangerous.

[nuone]

Neither of those would have worked for reasons described in the dossier. The first because the GTVA is not the 'bad guys', they wouldn't violate their own conventions like that. The latter because I'm pretty sure the UEF culture itself was considered dangerous.

With all due respect General, I humbly disagree. How can the GTVA not be the "bad guys"? Whenever a domineering force reaches a level where it can project power (Great Britain, United States, Romans, etc.), they inevitably become oppressors, because they can and do impose their interests through force. The justification for the invasion is one-sided in the least. The GTVA needs Earth's resources but being that is the weaker of the two, it sees no need to bargain. It will simply take what it wants by force; not recognizing any independence whatsoever. The aforementioned guise of "rationality" is simply a way to quiet any last vestige of conscious their forces may harbor.

[nuone]

I just realized I contradicted a man on his viewpoint about the GTVA, when he's the one that wrote the story. <Not good>

[NGTM-1R]

Bluntly, the GTVA does not need the resources of Earth; it would merely like them. However, that is not the reason this campaign is being waged in the slightest.

What ithe GTVA does need is to discredit or remove from power the Ubuntu. It needs to do this because Ubuntu represents a different option for the GTVA's own people, one more attractive then themselves. And there is a significant downside to them taking that option that they will not realize, or not care about because of its "indefinite future" nature: Everybody dies.

Straight, no joke, human and probably Vasudan extinction the next time the Shivans roll into town. Ubuntu is not a philosophy willing or able to produce the tools and the people who would be necessary for even a hope of a successful defense.

Nobody is ever going to thank the Security Council for this one. But they made the choice that had to be made for the sake of the species. It's not a pretty or an elegant choice. But that does not make it a bad one.

[General Battuta]

No, feel free to contradict, nuone. The very argument that you, NGTM-1R, and everyone else are having is what the campaign is about.

[manwiththemachinegun]

Neither of those would have worked for reasons described in the dossier. The first because the GTVA is not the 'bad guys', they wouldn't violate their own conventions like that. The latter because I'm pretty sure the UEF culture itself was considered dangerous.

With all due respect General, I humbly disagree. How can the GTVA not be the "bad guys"? Whenever a domineering force reaches a level where it can project power (Great Britain, United States, Romans, etc.), they inevitably become oppressors, because they can and do impose their interests through force. The justification for the invasion is one-sided in the least. The GTVA needs Earth's resources but being that is the weaker of the two, it sees no need to bargain. It will simply take what it wants by force; not recognizing any independence whatsoever. The aforementioned guise of "rationality" is simply a way to quiet any last vestige of conscious their forces may harbor.

Not every hegemony is bad for the world, nor is every Empire. The Romans defended their allies for centuries and had unprecedented peace for a time in the Republic days, and America, though criticized greatly these days, is certainly more benevolent a Cold War superpower than if the USSR had come out on top.

I'm betting the GTVA feels threaten by Earth, because its, well, EARTH. The trend setter for all of human civilization. The fact that Earth is peaceful, and not militarized enough to face another Shivan invasion terrifies the Security Council in more ways than one I wager. Not to mention if Earth resumes "High Command" status as they probably legally have the right to do, the old guard may lose a lot of power before the rest of mankind's colonies. It's really not that surprising.

I just don't think a black/white look at the Terran factions here is the most accurate look at the picture here.

[SpardaSon21]

Like NGTM-1R, I take the view that the GTVA is doing what is necessary for the survival of the human race.  The Ubuntu philosophy is not one suited the the type of hostile galaxy that exists in the Freespace universe, one where the Shivans could emerge at any time, anywhere, and restart their crusade against the Terrans and Vasudans.  The GTVA also needs Earth's industrial capacity to get them back on their feet and ready to repel the next Shivan incursion.  I think the GTVA has decided that being seen as the bad guys for starting a war with Earth is a justifiable price for the survival of the human race.

[-Norbert-]

But if the Shivans really do only attack "the destroyers" it would be really ironic.
The GTVA tries to militarise Humanity to be able to defend themselfs against the Shivans, and the Shivans attack Humanity exactly because they militarise....

Of course we don't know the true reason for the Shivan attacks, so they might be right, but if they aren't it's a really nice (and tragic) irony.

But no matter if the actions of the GTVA are justified or not, in my opinion they are wrong for sure. I have no problem with using violence as a last resort, but they didn't even try any other way, they simply decided to attack based only on the results of unmaned reconnaisanse flights.

[Droid803]

"They may only be fighting us because we have the means to fight back" is a stupid reason to go around undefended. Not only is it nothing but a theory, but it leaves no contingency plan in the event that your theorycrafting went horribly wrong. It's not really that tragic - people aren't omniscient and survival is about making the best choice based on the limited information you know.

You could always look back and say "if we this then, none of this would have happened", but that's unrealistic.

If it is necessary and logical choice of action, then I cannot condemn them for taking it. While it initially felt wrong after witnessing the events AoA and not knowing the reasoning behind it, the GTVA feels as reasonable as the UEF. Neither side on a whole is considering the reasons for why the other side is fighting, really, though the individual soldiers on the battlefield do. This makes it more interesting.