Author Topic: Gloom and doom?  (Read 5309 times)

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Offline Scorpius

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So many of you probably read the link I posted about what life would be like 40 years from 1968 and many of you probably read the comments on the bottom.  Many of the comments were extremely bleak outlook of life in 2048.  I have noticed there is a big end-of-the-world craze going on in recent times (the whole 2012 thing, the new popular kids books are about a post apocalyptic society living underground, movies like I am Legend, 28 months later, etc..) I was wondering what people here thought.

Do you think the world as we know it is coming to an end very soon? Or is this just a generation of doomers exacerbated by a slowing global economy?
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Offline peterv

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Hope it does, especially because this particular "generation of doomers" depend their lives only on global economy. :pimp:

 

Offline blackhole

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Things like this come and go. They're always wrong.

 

Offline Kosh

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In the 50's and most of the 60's most people were pretty optimistic about the future.  Now not so much, probably because of the failure to deliver on the promises of the past.
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Offline peterv

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For the past decades the world is being rouled by the people who were young and optimistic back then.  :(

 

Offline General Battuta

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Offline Black Wolf

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You have to look at what science was doing then vs. what science is doing now. In 68, we were one year from the moon landing, which is a good "culmination point" for the massive postwar scientific advances that had revolutionized life in almost every way. Science in the fifties and sixties was about opening doors - think about it - TVs were in every home, streaming in information in quantities far greater than ever before, superphosphates and massive irrigation engineering was opening vast tracst of land for farming, labour saving devices were entering every conceiveable niche in the home, nuclear power was cheap, plentiful and safe, buildings were taller and more complex than ever, antibiotics had come out of WW2 as wonder drugs, Smallpox was being eradicated, polio vaccines had been developed etc. etc. etc. There are a million examples. And that doesn't even take into account more esoteric stuff like genetic and atomic research moving ahead in leaps and bounds.

In essence, the last thirty years had been about examining the potential of science and not finding any limits, and in the process making everyone's life better.

Modern science, particularly in the last ten or fifteen years, has been more about finding the limits of science. We know now that we're running out of phosphates for fertilizer, that fresh water is getting harder to find, that metal resources of stuff like copper are scarcer and scarcer. We have global warming people telling us that all those labour saving devices use electricity, the generation of which will destroy the planet. Chernobyl shattered everyone's nuclear idyll, so that's off the table as well. Science has also had much less impact on people's every day lives over the past twenty or so years than it had in the twenty years preceeding 1968. Walk around your house and find stuff that they didn't have in 1988. With the exception of your more advanced entertainment stuff (which often had less advanced analogues at the time) and the internet, you wont find too much. Try to imagine performing a similar experiment comparing a 1968 home to a 1948 home. Much more dramatic change. Even medical science, despite advancing in leaps and bounds behind the scenes, curing lots of diseases that most people wont encounter int heir day to day lives, it hasn't had the hands on impact it had had in 1968. Back then, we'd eliminated a lot of the major diseases of the time. In the last 20 years though, new diseases have jumped up to replace them (AIDS, Cancer, heart disease and obesity etc.), and science has failed us against these illnesses.

It's a cyclical thing I think. Ask again in 20 years and I think we'll be on an upward slope again - new sources of energy wuill have made the oil crunch and global warming somewhat less critical (I'm thinking hydrogen here), and stem cells will make organ replacement viable, getting around cancer in a lot of cases. Metal and fertilizer shortages I'm less sure about, but there are alternative sources we can tap if things get desperate - first low grade deposits that are currently uneconomic, then underwater, arctic and antarctic stuff, direct extraction from seawater etc. etc. Also, I think we'll start to see even more computer integration into houses and routines (especially as online shopping continues to gain acceptance for non-luxury items), which'll show dramatic, positive, "hands on" changes to lifestyles. Stuff like wireless networking and bluetooth letting all your gear talk to each other, true roaming profiles and customization, etc. etc.

In essence, I think the doom and gloom of today vs. the optimism of yesteryear tells you more about people's perceptions of science than it does the true state of modern technology, or the potential of the future - it's social, not so much scientific. I'd be particularly keen to see what the mentality would be in upwardly mobil countries like China and Malaysia and such - probably hugely more optiistic than most of the western world.
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Offline Hellstryker

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Well said, well said Black Wolf. Admitedly though, with every advancement we do seem to come closer to destroying the earth... but hopefully that won't be so much of a problem once we terraform mars...

 

Offline castor

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Hard to say what the result will be, but its gonna be a hell of a mess getting there.
The lack of resources is just getting worse, and  the resource need/capita in any country is only increasing.
Then there are more people capable of fighting about these resources than there ever was.

 

Offline peterv

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I wonder how long would it take us to destroy a terraformed mars :nod:

 

Offline Androgeos Exeunt

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Very little, I guess. Mars has no atmosphere, so they'll probably need to create biodomes or something like that.
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Offline Hellstryker

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Well theres plenty of Co2, and the soil can support plant life... oxygen comes out of plants... But, yeah, you'd need to do it on a MASSIVE scale. and even then the atmosphere would be thin, and this is totally ignoring the temperature problem...

 

Offline Androgeos Exeunt

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Perhaps they could seed some plants all over the planet over the course of, I don't know, thirty years?
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Offline peterv

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What about the gravity? I think it is somethink like 0.6g.

 

Offline Flipside

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I suspect that once we spread to multiple planets, Earth will probably end up irradiated at some point. It's easier to throw stones when you are in a different tree.

Edit: As for the Worldwide 'Cult of Doom', to be honest, the situation was the same during the Cold War, every day could be your last. What changed it all this time round was this here 'Internet' thing. Now every crackpot can get their voice heard, and with the human nature of believing that everything is slowly getting worse as they get older (which is, in truth a case of them getting older as the world gets different) this sort of attitude is bound to get around.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2008, 04:50:46 am by Flipside »

 

Offline peterv

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Ask shivans in this board, they know better :lol:

 
Developments in science and technology that improve our lives are wonderful and all, but there's always the negative side. Taking a huge step back and looking at the world, we can see the problems - famine, disease, pollution -  and where such developments would be useful in trying to solve them. But there are worries about, for example, genetically modified crops and the effects of crossbreeding with unmodified crops, the ethical issues of using stem cells, animal research etc.

I'm don't really know much about the history of science, but I wonder about the developments made in the last century and the "sacrifices" made to fulfill them. I mean, for example the experiments conducted by the Nazis on concentration camp victims, and by Unit 731 (the Japanese army's experimental medical unit in WW2), and so on. What came of those experiments and how much of the knowledge (if any) that they got from them ended up being transferred into modern day beneficial medical treatment? OK yes, I know that I'm bring up extreme examples here. But it's disturbing.

The means to get humans into space were based on technology derived from the design of the V2 rocket, IIRC. Then there's the Cold War arms race, from which there must have been lots of technological advancements that found their way into civilian use in some shape or form (I'm thinking of the space shuttle and all the innovations that went into its design that ended up in household gadgetry etc.)

I rambling a bit. What I'm saying is that it seems to me that there have huge developments over the last 100 years but some have been born out of the big upheavals in history, namely war and its associated nastiness. Gains made through sacrifice, or a huge cost. The '50s and '60s developed world looked back on the 2 world wars and didn't really want a third using nuclear weaponry... even though the threat of one happening was there. But it drove development... some good and some not so good. What seems to be (or rather what should be?) driving development now whilst things are... relatively quieter (depending on where you live in the world) is global warming (assuming that the cause is human activity), food crises, the fight against superbugs... maybe.

Of course science can't make our world perfect. The means of improving the planet's health and our lives may be in our grasp, and I'm sure that attempts to implement them will be made in the future, but as long as humans are involved, chaos reigns. As long as conflict keeps braking out we're still going to see famine, disease and poverty, no matter what science can bring us. I don't think that'll change in 40 years, or beyond that.

Sorry for my overall "heavy" view. Hope I didn't go off on too much of a tangent. I don't consider myself a doomerist but I have concerns...and sometimes current events get me thinking.

 

Offline Flipside

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Oddly enough, if Dinosaurs had invented 'War', they probably would have advanced a lot quicker, though, in all fairness, it's unlikely we would find evidence of civilisation from that long ago even if it did exist, even something like the Pyramids wouldn't last 60+ million years. I don't think most mountain ranges hang about for that long, come to think of it.

 
As well as bringing some development it also creates a distraction from the big global problems, and exacerbating them overall.

On another note, over-reliance on technology... that could be a concern for the future.

 

Offline Flipside

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Thing is, we've created a sort of perpetual motion for creating technology, technology increases free time, which increases the amount of time people can dedicate to inventing ways of making more free time. Hence why you can get devices that talk to your plants, because the Western World has lots of free time.

I suppose this was my point in the 'Longevity' thread that was up a few weeks ago, that the changes inherent in extending life are far more wide-reaching than simply living longer, and that, as you say, a society that becomes too dependent on it's science is as dangerous in it's own way as a society that bases itself entirely on religion.