[Kosh]

Hmmm, interesting. Thanks for that link, Kosh. Seems like China risks running into the objective reality problem the USSR couldn't handle (Disconnect between reality and party ideology). Kudos to those guys making those decisions on the regional level.

That still isn't accurate since the party has no real ideology (and it has shown to be far more competent and adaptable than the soviet communist party ever was), maosim died long long ago. It's really more of a case of what's best for the country is not always best for this particular area. Sometimes it can be good but in cases like environmental protection it can be very harmful. Double edged sword really.

[The E]

Okay, i'll stop now. Have to do more research, apparently.

[BengalTiger]

Umm....No. You're still stuck in the cold war way of thinking. During the cold war, it was believed that WW3 would be much like WW2, with added nukes. I don't think thats propable. Why? Because: Big wars of conquest are ultimately too expensive. When Germany opened WW2, it needed to keep on conquering in the hope of aquiring enough assets to pay of its debts. Then theres the post-war occupation, which is hardly cost effective either. I recently read Halting State by Charles Stross, where he describes a much more propable (and less risky, more profitable) way of how WW3 might play out, through subtle manipulation of Information leading to the desired results.

Information warfare doesn't work. If country A hacks country B's servers, the citizens of country B get p!$$ed, and B's military cuts country A's cables, jams their wireless networks and if possible, shoots down their satellites. If the people get really p!$$ed, they might even want a full scale war.

Also- what profits do you get through info manipulation? You could steal money and technology, generate temporary chaos perhaps... But no new territory, no new resources, no new free labor and no new worshippers of your ideology and no increase of your country's security, and these have been the main reasons that people started wars.
The risks are as always- being bombed to hell and back, invaded, occupied and overthrown.

[maje]

Thank you. That just made my day. That has got to be the least thought-through proposal I have ever read on that topic. For starters, the only reason to produce stuff in China is because it's too expensive to manufacture mass produced items in countries like the USA, because peope in the western world actually expect to earn enough to afford living in the western world through their work. Forcing companies to produce stuff in the USA just doesn't work.

Not a problem.  I'm sure all of us here would be more than willing to hear an intelligent and detailed alternative from you.  Also, I already know the reasons why Big Business prefers to send manufacturing overseas, so what you are saying really isn't some awe-inspiring revelation. 

Unfortunately, you seem to have missed the point, so I will reiterate it for you:  If manufacturing jobs are being outsourced and the jobs that replace those aren't as high paying, then people are not making the money that they used to, meaning the circulation of cash isn't flowing as much as it used to because people have less.  And of course, a country that cedes its manufacturing capabilities, also cedes its sovereignty because it becomes dependent on others for its day to day necessities and not all of the people we trade with particularly care what happens to us as long the cash keeps coming.  And when that cashflow stops and we ask them for loans to buy more stuff FROM them, we put ourselves at their mercy.  I guarantee you that the Red Dragon isn't exactly as tolerant or understanding as the boobs who run Washington are.

Now, the one thing that should be done with regards to China, is to stop treating them like a third world country. They have nuclear weapons, for crying out loud. Just because they claim to be a third world country whenever it suits their needs (pollution, human rights, copyright law) doesn't mean they are. (China runs a fine line in their propaganda, in the interior, they claim to be a superpower that is slighted by the others, kept down by the malicious intervention of foreigners; Externally, they claim to be a developing country, that can't be asked to implement things like proper emmission control, because they lack the technological base to make it work).

Not sure if this is still directed at me, but I never indicated that China should be belittled by the U.S.  Personally, I don't think we should do anything that aggrevates or appeases Beijing, as long as no vital U.S. interest is at stake.  The ability to make our own goods IS a vital interest and it IS at stake.

[The E]

Information warfare doesn't work. If country A hacks country B's servers, the citizens of country B get p!$$ed, and B's military cuts country A's cables, jams their wireless networks and if possible, shoots down their satellites. If the people get really p!$$ed, they might even want a full scale war.

Also- what profits do you get through info manipulation? You could steal money and technology, generate temporary chaos perhaps... But no new territory, no new resources, no new free labor and no new worshippers of your ideology and no increase of your country's security, and these have been the main reasons that people started wars.
The risks are as always- being bombed to hell and back, invaded, occupied and overthrown.

You're still thinking about this the wrong way. Information Warfare isn't about destroying/disrupting the enemy's IT-Infrastructure. It's about subverting it. It's about being able to alter the communications between government agencies to steer them where you want them to be. remember, if you invade a country, you have to (for a while, at least) replace and  run that country's TOTAL infrastructure, until the locals are able to do your bidding out of their own free will. This is both cost- and labor-intensive, and unless you are prepared to not only control the country you're occupying, but also every other country that has an interest in your victim, you are going to fail.

Not a problem.  I'm sure all of us here would be more than willing to hear an intelligent and detailed alternative from you.  Also, I already know the reasons why Big Business prefers to send manufacturing overseas, so what you are saying really isn't some awe-inspiring revelation. 

Unfortunately, you seem to have missed the point, so I will reiterate it for you:  If manufacturing jobs are being outsourced and the jobs that replace those aren't as high paying, then people are not making the money that they used to, meaning the circulation of cash isn't flowing as much as it used to because people have less.  And of course, a country that cedes its manufacturing capabilities, also cedes its sovereignty because it becomes dependent on others for its day to day necessities and not all of the people we trade with particularly care what happens to us as long the cash keeps coming.  And when that cashflow stops and we ask them for loans to buy more stuff FROM them, we put ourselves at their mercy.  I guarantee you that the Red Dragon isn't exactly as tolerant or understanding as the boobs who run Washington are.

Ahh. That makes it clear. However, unless you are willing to subsidize local production, either by Government spending or import tariffs, it's not going to work. You are right, maneuvering yourself into a position where you are indebted to a possibly hostile country is a pretty stupid move.

Not sure if this is still directed at me, but I never indicated that China should be belittled by the U.S.  Personally, I don't think we should do anything that aggrevates or appeases Beijing, as long as no vital U.S. interest is at stake.  The ability to make our own goods IS a vital interest and it IS at stake.

Wasn't directed at you. That was me going into rant mode. Anyway, you still have the ability to manufacture any thing you want, it's just that noone wishes to buy it at the prices you have to ask for if you do. Welcome to the downside of globalized capitalism.
The basic assumption that anything can be available cheaper without averse consequences for anyone may prove to be the biggest misconception ever. If i had a cure for it, I wouldn't be here whining about its unavailability.

[NGTM-1R]

You're still thinking about this the wrong way. Information Warfare isn't about destroying/disrupting the enemy's IT-Infrastructure. It's about subverting it. It's about being able to alter the communications between government agencies to steer them where you want them to be. remember, if you invade a country, you have to (for a while, at least) replace and  run that country's TOTAL infrastructure, until the locals are able to do your bidding out of their own free will. This is both cost- and labor-intensive, and unless you are prepared to not only control the country you're occupying, but also every other country that has an interest in your victim, you are going to fail.

Except it still doesn't work, because lots of people can read books, like you can, and devise countermeasures. This is why US military tactical doctrine is somewhat vague, for example. Not only does this reflect the desire for the man on the scene to think for himself, it also reflects that published detailed doctrine is easily countered.

There is a fundemental paradox at work with information warfare. It is the non-real attempting to effect the real. That is a very steep hill to climb, and there are numerous and simple obstacles to place in its way. The simplest and most effective obstacle to information warfare, an unconnected second network that operates independent of others, is already one embraced by nearly every military in the world, and many governments have the option to operate in such a mode if they don't actually do so already.

The concept of being able to do such things as you seem to believe is quaintly cyberpunk. It's also totally impossible.

[BengalTiger]

Then there's the problem people personally discuss many things, making even the greatest l33t h4x fail.

[The E]

Except it still doesn't work, because lots of people can read books, like you can, and devise countermeasures. This is why US military tactical doctrine is somewhat vague, for example. Not only does this reflect the desire for the man on the scene to think for himself, it also reflects that published detailed doctrine is easily countered.

There is a fundemental paradox at work with information warfare. It is the non-real attempting to effect the real. That is a very steep hill to climb, and there are numerous and simple obstacles to place in its way. The simplest and most effective obstacle to information warfare, an unconnected second network that operates independent of others, is already one embraced by nearly every military in the world, and many governments have the option to operate in such a mode if they don't actually do so already.

The concept of being able to do such things as you seem to believe is quaintly cyberpunk. It's also totally impossible.

You're not wrong. It's just my biases at work, I guess. I'm basing my assumptions on the fact that engaging something like the US Military in a military way is just a very spectacular way of committing suicide. Thus, if you want to achieve certain strategic goals by force as opposed to diplomacy, you'll have to find ways that don't involve putting yourself in the flightpath of an incoming JDAM.

[Kosh]

Unfortunately, you seem to have missed the point, so I will reiterate it for you:  If manufacturing jobs are being outsourced and the jobs that replace those aren't as high paying, then people are not making the money that they used to, meaning the circulation of cash isn't flowing as much as it used to because people have less.  And of course, a country that cedes its manufacturing capabilities, also cedes its sovereignty because it becomes dependent on others for its day to day necessities and not all of the people we trade with particularly care what happens to us as long the cash keeps coming.

If you want to pay $500+ for shoes go for it. The few people that have tried to avoid buying stuff from outsourced China factories found it extremely difficult, not because of availability but because of cost. It's expensive to make that stuff in the developed world.

[Mika]

Interesting news from New Hampshire. The retired people have started to talk that maybe they will also see the collapse of US within their life time. Witnessing the rise and death of two super powers within one's personal life.

I don't see much point in military conflict between China and USA, unless initiated by US. I also remind that Western Army representatives were doubly surprised (or at least acted as such) when China blew up a satellite from the orbit with a ground based missile and their submarine surfaced right in the middle of US Battlegroup.

Besides, I thought it was already too expensive for US to utilize its military force. New F-22s and B-2s don't make things exactly cheaper. And, in my opinion China doesn't work with "in-your-face" military attitude as US does. China is much more manipulative and relies on diplomacy and projected images to actually avoid fighting in war. Though this can probably changed quite quickly with propaganda from the central government.

I think US has already found itself in a situation where it cannot back off any more, being too dependent on Chinese economy to attack it militarily. Wasn't it a couple of weeks ago when Hillary Clinton actually said she's glad the Chinese still support US monetarily? I'm pretty sure they are busy as hell looking for other locations to deposit their money in the mean time. And trying to find other partners for selling their goods.

Mika

[BengalTiger]

And that's where India comes in.

About the retired people saying they'll see the fall of the US- here's something from another forum:

Comments made in the year 1955!
That's only 54 years ago!

'I'll tell you one thing, if things keep going the way they are, it's going to be impossible to buy a week's groceries for $20.00.


'Have you seen the new cars coming out next year? It won't be long before $2, 000.00 will only buy a used one.


'If cigarettes keep going up in price, I'm going to quit. 25 cents a pack is ridiculous..


'Did you hear the post office is thinking about charging 10 cents just to mail a letter


'If they raise the minimum wage to $1.00, nobody will be able to hire outside help at the store.


'When I first started driving, who would have thought gas would someday cost 29 cents a gallon. Guess we'd be better off leaving the car in the garage.


'I'm afraid to send my kids to the movies any more Ever since they let Clark Gable get by with saying DAMN in GONE WITH THE WIND, it seems every new movie has either HELL or DAMN in it.


'I read the other day where some scientist thinks it's possible to put a man on the moon by the end of the century. They even have some fellows they call astronauts preparing for it down in Texas .


'Did you see where some baseball player just signed a contract for $75,000 a year just to play ball? It wouldn't surprise me if someday they'll be making more than the President.


'I never thought I'd see the day all our kitchen appliances would be electric. They are even making electric typewriters now.


'It's too bad things are so tough nowadays. I see where a few married women are having to work to make ends meet.


'It won't be long before young couples are going to have to hire someone to watch their kids so they can both work.


'I'm afraid the Volkswagen car is going to open the door to a whole lot of foreign business.


'Thank goodness I won't live to see the day when the Government takes half our income in taxes. I sometimes wonder if we are electing the best people to government.


'The drive-in restaurant is convenient in nice weather, but I seriously doubt they will ever catch on.


'There is no sense going on short trips anymore for a weekend, it costs nearly $15.00 a night to stay in a hotel.


'No one can afford to be sick anymore, at $35.00 a day in the hospital, it's too rich for my blood.'


'If they think I'll pay 50 cents for a hair cut, forget it.'

I didn't check even one of those claims, some could be wrong, but I think they give a general idea of people complaining back in the '50s. Don't forget how everyone feared WW III and the end of the world during the whole Cold War (with fallout shelters being built in the thousands).

And it looks like the world still exists, and not even the fact people complain a lot has changed over the years.

[Mika]

I think they are comparing the USSR ending conditions to US conditions at the moment and draw the conclusion from there. They simply see the situation irreversible. The only question remaining is if US suffers a sudden catastrophical collapse, or a slow spin to the bottom.

Many of the money related comments should be corrected for inflation and general price level.
Bombshelters are still required to be constructed here for all major population centers, but for different reasons.

Mika

[Kosh]

Bombshelters are still required to be constructed here for all major population centers, but for different reasons.

Such as?

[BloodEagle]

Bombshelters are still required to be constructed here for all major population centers, but for different reasons.

Such as?

Weather?

[karajorma]

Godzilla?

[BloodEagle]

Godzilla?

Zombies!   

[Nuclear1]

Them?

[Polpolion]

Me.

[Mika]

Weather?

BWAHAHAHA! I just figured a guy going back to his trusty-ol'-bombshelter since it's raining sleet again. "God dang it, I ain't gonna go there! Better sleep til' tomorro'!"

Why such interest in the bomb shelter construction? That is obviously 'cause you never know what those Swedes are up to! Come to think of it, it would actually be interesting to see if there really exists a plan for invading Sweden in the ministry of defense...

Besides, would there be willing participants for a little dredging of the shore of my summer cottage located at the Bay of Bothnia? I think we can set up the bonfire and drink some lemonade and beer and eat fried sausages after all the work is done. I suppose I can warm up the sauna also for those who want to have a bath and possibly swim. Here is a map of the area to be dredged: http://i13.tinypic.com/2j5mnx0.jpg

Sorry, that Sweden part got out of hand now once I started it! I had to self-censor half of the post and almost all links, but I suppose I can leave that one.

As more serious note, they still test all the public loudspeakers every month by playing the general alarm. In my home village, it wasn't monthly, but weekly; every Monday at 12.00.

Mika

[BloodEagle]

As more serious note, they still test all the public loudspeakers every month by playing the general alarm. In my home village, it wasn't monthly, but weekly; every Monday at 12.00.

Mika

I'm pretty sure that if an air-raid siren went off in a heavily populated area in The U.S., that no one (okay, 80%+) would know what was going on. And if it wasn't completely illegal to do so, I would test that theory.