Because you cannot make the assumption that you WONT see an improvement. And there can be many improvements that you may NOT see. Like, if the processing of certain functions is now optimized, it lowers the GPU processing, which saves your video card a few degrees of temp.
And yes, I have seen the rendering code. Very impressive. Wether or not it will actually require as much of an overhaul as some people think is another matter for elsewhere. That some changes will need to be made is definitely not in question. Besides, bloom could already be supported, and for older than OpenGL2 as neither bloom nor HDR strictly require SM3.0. It's just better on SM3.0.
Given a choice in running FSO on drivers that support OpenGL 2.0, 3.0 or 3.1, I will have to say, I'll take OpenGL 3.1 and I hope it makes it into mainstream drivers really damn soon along with Ambient Occlusion support. Because I do happen to notice a difference by comparison to just how everything looks and how much smoother the same framerate is.
And no, FSO uses OpenGL 2.0, Shader Model 3.0. Shader Model 2.0 is usable in -no_glsl mode, mileage may vary if you choose to use the Shaders without Shader Model 3.0.