[BloodEagle]

I didn't see a thread about this yet, so....

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iURO8fOyWVOA0ytFlaAGuC9F7R9wD98DLHD01

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — The United Nations swiftly condemned North Korea for its test of a powerful nuclear bomb and South Korean announced Tuesday it would join a U.S.-led initiative to intercept ships suspected of spreading weapons of mass destruction.

The U.N. Security Council said the test was a "clear violation" of a 2006 resolution banning North Korea from conducting nuclear development, and that it would start work immediately on a new resolution that could result in even stronger measures.

Russian officials said the nuclear bomb that the North detonated underground Monday was comparable to those that obliterated Hiroshima and Nagasaki, raising fears that the communist country could spread such technology abroad.

In a further sign of the North's mounting standoff with the world, a report said the country was likely preparing to fire short-range missiles Tuesday off its western coast.

[...]

(Polls are gone, go figure)

Ways this could turn out:

• Pissing Contest
• An Oriental NATO (see above)
• Global Thermonuclear War, Let's Play
• <Insert Option Here>

 

[Mr. Vega]

A strange game. The only way to win is not to play.

[Kosh]

The big question is what will all the neighboring countries think/do......

[Blue Lion]

The bigger question is how does this affect me in any serious way?

[StarSlayer]

ICBMs in the hands of a state as monumentally fraked up as DPRK?  I think there are few scenarios that might affect you.

[Sushi]

My worry is that by the time the UN gets past the "increasingly severe finger-wagging" stage, it will be too late and some idiot is going to start a war.

[Knight Templar]

I didn't see a thread about this yet, so....

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iURO8fOyWVOA0ytFlaAGuC9F7R9wD98DLHD01

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — The United Nations swiftly condemned North Korea for its test of a powerful nuclear bomb and South Korean announced Tuesday it would join a U.S.-led initiative to intercept ships suspected of spreading weapons of mass destruction.

The U.N. Security Council said the test was a "clear violation" of a 2006 resolution banning North Korea from conducting nuclear development, and that it would start work immediately on a new resolution that could result in even stronger measures.

Russian officials said the nuclear bomb that the North detonated underground Monday was comparable to those that obliterated Hiroshima and Nagasaki, raising fears that the communist country could spread such technology abroad.

In a further sign of the North's mounting standoff with the world, a report said the country was likely preparing to fire short-range missiles Tuesday off its western coast.

[...]

(Polls are gone, go figure)

Ways this could turn out:

• Pissing Contest
• An Oriental NATO (see above)
• Global Thermonuclear War, Let's Play
• <Insert Option Here>

 

1) yes.
2) uhh.. maybe, a NATO in as much as Asian states aside from mostly China thinking the Pongyang gov is pushing it.
3) lol.

An actual nuclear test isn't going to amount to much other than North Korea getting harsher sanctions, yet simulataneously being able to tell the UN Security Council to back up off their jocks. Nukes don't mean global nuclear face melting war anymore, they mean being taken more serious at the UN. Right now the entire strategy for North Korea is going to change completely. It's going to go from giving them incentives to not develop nuclear weapons (which they supposedly weren't... lol) to incentives to disarm, which believe it or not, is an entirely different ballgame. Their offensive nuclear weaponry however, is still relatively "primative" not to mention their lack of viable delivery system to anywhere important. And shooting them at Japan / S. Korea is a pretty obvious suicide pill for the Pongyang government. Strategically, all they gain from this is assurance against a blitzkrieg coalition invasion, which is realistically all they could have asked for.

The real story here is how this obvious series of events will affect negotiations with Iran, who is known to trade in weapons with N. Korea and is basically following the same course only a couple years behind.

[Grizzly]

Brilliant! North Korea just blew up their entire nuclear arsenal, so we don't have to worry .

[Janos]

My worry is that by the time the UN gets past the "increasingly severe finger-wagging" stage, it will be too late and some idiot is going to start a war.

China, Russia and USA will most likely find a common tone and issue a stern warning to NK yes I see this very possible indeed

[Locutus of Borg]

MY bets are on Alpha 1 and his harbingers



But seriously, why doesn't the UN invade and be done with them. They've been nothing but defiant and now they're starting to become a threat.

[Black Wolf]

Because they'd shell the **** out of Seoul and kill tens of thousands the second an enemy boot touched their soil? Because they have a one million man standing army? Because last time they tried they were at war for three years without a successful resolution? (Although granted, the situation now is very different to the last Korean war). Because they have nukes and are insane enough to launch them at Tokyo, Seoul and probably Alaska if they get invaded, not to mention nuking invading armies? Because, while their Air Force isn't exactly top notch, they have one of the densest Air Defence Networks in the entire world?

Invading North Korea is an insane idea, nobody's going to do it except as an absolute last ditch, no choice solution (e.g. if they provoked by invading/nuking a neighbour).

[Rodo]

Involving in the development of other countries is not a good idea... you can try to help but eventually it will always turn in a bad thing.

My guess is that UN will do nothing as usual, neighbour nations will play central roles in this one on the other hand... maybe a regional arrangement will arise from this mess.

[Kosh]

Because they'd shell the **** out of Seoul and kill tens of thousands the second an enemy boot touched their soil? Because they have a one million man standing army? Because last time they tried they were at war for three years without a successful resolution? (Although granted, the situation now is very different to the last Korean war). Because they have nukes and are insane enough to launch them at Tokyo, Seoul and probably Alaska if they get invaded, not to mention nuking invading armies? Because, while their Air Force isn't exactly top notch, they have one of the densest Air Defence Networks in the entire world?

Invading North Korea is an insane idea, nobody's going to do it except as an absolute last ditch, no choice solution (e.g. if they provoked by invading/nuking a neighbour).

The artillery tubes and rockets pointed at Seoul are a real problem, and while it might well be a tough nut to crack, the vast majority of their equipment is hopelessly obsolete, half of their tank corps are T-55's. Their air force is relatively small, but most of their fighters are mig-21's, not much of a threat except if you aren't paying attention. Basically they can come out in a storm, but they have no staying power at all. Nukes would change this however, since they could nuke the invading armies.

EDIT: Besides, south korea is no pushover either. Sure they are smaller but they have much better equipment.

[Black Wolf]

The artillery tubes and rockets pointed at Seoul are a real problem, and while it might well be a tough nut to crack, the vast majority of their equipment is hopelessly obsolete, half of their tank corps are T-55's. Their air force is relatively small, but most of their fighters are mig-21's, not much of a threat except if you aren't paying attention. Basically they can come out in a storm, but they have no staying power at all. Nukes would change this however, since they could nuke the invading armies.

EDIT: Besides, south korea is no pushover either. Sure they are smaller but they have much better equipment.

Oh, no doubt that the invaders would win the war this time around, especially if you assume China and Russia aren't getting involved (at least, not on the DPRKs side), but the civillian and military casualties would be massive, far beyond what would be politically acceptable for any democratically elected government, except when there's no longer any choice at all, i.e. Kim Jong Il shoots first.

[Rhymes]

True, but I doubt Kim Jong Il is stupid enough to start launching nukes off.  Anybody who has nukes and starts using them usually winds up facing incoming nukes from everyone else on the planet who has one.

In short: if NK was dumb enough to start a nuclear war, NK would probably become a radioactive slag heap soon after.

[Black Wolf]

True, but I doubt Kim Jong Il is stupid enough to start launching nukes off.  Anybody who has nukes and starts using them usually winds up facing incoming nukes from everyone else on the planet who has one.

In short: if NK was dumb enough to start a nuclear war, NK would probably become a radioactive slag heap soon after.

Usually? As in, that's how it's gone down in seven of the last eight nuclear wars?

Realistically, you're right. These are bargaining chips more than they are offensive weapons, in real terms. The prospect of the nukes getting fired at anyone is remote, and the prospect of them being fired pre-emptively is even more remote, even given that the general assumption is that Kim Jong Il isn't exactly all there upstairs. Of course, in a military situation, if it started to look like the north were on the verge of losing they might toss out a few token nukes at Seoul, Tokyo etc. That's MAD after all, which is ultimately at the core of the nuclear debate.

[Rhymes]

Really? People don't like MAD?  I wonder why anybody wouldn't want to have their entire planet nuked into the ground?

[Knight Templar]

I'm not sure why people think testing bombs = zomg NK nuclear war.

Being an unfavorable and diminutive leader doesn't make Kim Jong irrational. If he were a true lunatic, he'd have done something crazy years ago and been over with  it. He would have unleashed that solar ion cannon on the Korean DMZ like in James Bond. But he hasn't. Playing against the UN's wishes doesn't make you crazy, though it certainly digs a deeper hole for yourself.

Right now, nuclear weapons only really fulfill two roles for North Korea, as I said. One is to ensure nobody conventionally invades them again. This strategy is pretty sound - I'll randomly cite Israel post-67' as an active example in how nuclear arms can secure relative peace to a state's mainland.  Only thing is, other than possible paranoid delusions from the NK regime, you'd need a reason to necessitate the political cost of nukes vs. the final, though arguably negligible security boost from nukes.

Which leads to reason number two - they're looking to share / sell technology to allies. That's why I brought up Iran (again, known diplomatic ties and cooperative efforts in the nuclear program) as well as potentially any other buyer. If they were looking to use the weapons in a direct offensive role, they could sell them on the market. Problem is, nuclear weapons ain't exactly difficult to track and trace. Any attack would more than likely be inevitably traced back to Pongyang which would again result in death.

So you're really only looking at option one, with the real question being "were they simply that paranoid regarding the Bush administration's Axis of Evil rhetoric, or do they have a reason for added defense?"

They won't be firing them off at Japan or South Korea anytime soon, not without a dramatic systemic shift in their favor somehow.

[Scotty]

Israel post-67'

1973 .

[Knight Templar]

Israel post-67'

1973 .

No. I meant what I said.

Yom-Kippur was never about invading Israel mainland or "marching to Jerusalem" despite what some patriotic Egyptians would have you believe. The Arabs only ever set foot on periphery territories (The Sinai and the Golan Heights) that while under Israeli occupation, were (and are) marked buffer zones at best. There's a fair argument (among other reasons) that the Arab push wouldn't have gone much further than those zones (if it even could have) because of Israel's nuclear weapons.