I have my doubts he actually does know something at this point; certainly he believes it, and perhaps even because has to believe it or he won't sleep at night. However the man operated as a more or less seperate entity from the main adminstration since at least 2005. (Reading The War Within is an enlightening experience if you can digest the sheer mass of detail.) I don't think he actually knows anything because he didn't have his finger on the pulse of the organization he was theoritically part of; he was out of touch, distant, trying to play some kind of gray eminence. Nobody in the adminstration knew what he was telling the president and it's doubtful he knew what they were telling the president either.