[Bobboau]

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-korea-shelling-react-20101123,0,1976433.story

really I thought that the sinking of the warship 6 months ago was going to provoke a war, but this is just ridiculous.

[Goblix]

I've been keeping an eye on this all morning.

It honestly sounds like the Korean War is going to go hot again, especially given the statements I've read from President Lee.

Personally I'm a bit concerned as I've got friends in the Army under USPACOM (United States Pacific Command) and if war suddenly breaks out and continues, they'll most likely be sent over there. One is 4 months away from leaving the military too.

[Solatar]

How DO you start a war with South Korea?  Sinking warships and attacking military bases doesn't seem to work.

[headdie]

very unsettling stuff

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20101123/twl-north-korean-artillery-pounds-s-kore-4c10a1a.html
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20101123/twl-n-korea-warns-of-more-strikes-after-3fd0ae9.html

and a freaky coincidence is that I started  replaying Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory last night on Saturday and finished last night

How DO you start a war with South Korea?  Sinking warships and attacking military bases doesn't seem to work.

problem is N Korea has the strength according to most assessments to cause a lot of damage even with American support for the South and South Korea just cant afford that kind of conflict.  remember that though not thought to be well trained or equipped officially every able bodied man not in the army is a reservist and their army is damned big, whether that weight in numbers is enough to overcome the technological and training superiority of the South Korean and the American forces has been questioned here before but you can guarantee that if the North's army is anything like the size it is supposed to be the conflict will be bloody on both sides.

[perihelion]

How DO you start a war with South Korea?  Sinking warships and attacking military bases doesn't seem to work.

Convince them that they have a prayer of something more than a Pyrrhic victory?

[Flaser]

very unsettling stuff

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20101123/twl-north-korean-artillery-pounds-s-kore-4c10a1a.html
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20101123/twl-n-korea-warns-of-more-strikes-after-3fd0ae9.html

and a freaky coincidence is that I started  replaying Splinter Cell: Chaos Theory last night on Saturday and finished last night

How DO you start a war with South Korea?  Sinking warships and attacking military bases doesn't seem to work.

problem is N Korea has the strength according to most assessments to cause a lot of damage even with American support for the South and South Korea just cant afford that kind of conflict.  remember that though not thought to be well trained or equipped officially every able bodied man not in the army is a reservist and their army is damned big, whether that weight in numbers is enough to overcome the technological and training superiority of the South Korean and the American forces has been questioned here before but you can guarantee that if the North's army is anything like the size it is supposed to be the conflict will be bloody on both sides.

Bring out the nukes.

Have the Security Council sit down and finally make a policy on accepted uses of nukes. Limit it to military targets only and in tactical yields. Call for multi-lateral observation, and put observers into each and every unit that's given the green light.

If even China could be brought on-board then North Korea could be brought to heel really fast. Even they're not crazy enough to contemplate the total economic ruin of their country... which would be step 2 in case the total military eradication didn't get the message through.

Things I'd write into the UN charter:
-Nuclear tactical strikes can only be applied against states.
-Can't be applied against terrorist or other non-state players as a policy.
-Can be applied as last resort against UN confirmed forces (whether state of non-state) in the process of deploying WDMs without UN approval.

(So you can bomb a fleet of merchant ships confirmed to have WMDs and heading for a major metropolis on board, but not bomb an insurgent force in a failed state just by crying "Terrorism!")

-Deployment needs the unanimous approval of the Security Council.
-Deployment can be pre-arranged by naming rogue states and sending SC representative military personal to grant the strike in case the situation warrants it. Hmm... maybe call it Damocles protocol. A rogue state would be placed under the protocol and from then on the 4 SC representatives can call a strikes as they see fit.

Strategic nuclear forces shouldn't fall under the Damocles protocol.

[Mars]

North Korea could be reduced to ruble within hours WITHOUT nukes. The issue is preventing South Korea from incurring the same fate.

Any offensive would involve special forces disabling NK artillery and then bombardment of military targets, probably followed by a marine assault (to circumvent the demilitarized zone) and naval bombardment. The main thrust would be over quickly, but not necessarily quickly enough to prevent massive damage to Seol.

[Hades]

[Nemesis6]

Problem, ROKS?

But yeah, this describes both the current situation at hand and North Korea as a whole.

[Kosh]

problem is N Korea has the strength according to most assessments to cause a lot of damage even with American support for the South and South Korea just cant afford that kind of conflict.  remember that though not thought to be well trained or equipped officially every able bodied man not in the army is a reservist and their army is damned big, whether that weight in numbers is enough to overcome the technological and training superiority of the South Korean and the American forces has been questioned here before but you can guarantee that if the North's army is anything like the size it is supposed to be the conflict will be bloody on both sides.

Seoul would be flattened in the initial artillery barrage, and so would the various border villages, beyond that I'm not sure how far they would get. Sure their army is big, but most of their equipment is hopelessly obsolete 50's era Soviet stuff, they have major fuel shortages so training is heavily restricted, and much of their army is not well fed. For them it would quickly turn into a rout and a meat grinder.

[Flipside]

China is the main spanner in the works, though they do have a point that jumping to conclusions about what happened and reacting on those conclusions is not the way to go, but the other problem is that China don't want to accept that North Korea are up to anything because the last thing they want is a large Nato military presence right on their border, so much of their looking the other way is self-motivated.

I'm not certain how long the South will allow the threat of China to hold them back, both cultures are heavily steeped in honour and 'face' and these attacks will be percieved as an insult to the pride of the countries involved. Pride can cause a lot of damage and South Korea's leaders will be looked to by their people to preserve that pride.

[Scotty]

problem is N Korea has the strength according to most assessments to cause a lot of damage even with American support for the South and South Korea just cant afford that kind of conflict.  remember that though not thought to be well trained or equipped officially every able bodied man not in the army is a reservist and their army is damned big, whether that weight in numbers is enough to overcome the technological and training superiority of the South Korean and the American forces has been questioned here before but you can guarantee that if the North's army is anything like the size it is supposed to be the conflict will be bloody on both sides.

Seoul would be flattened in the initial artillery barrage, and so would the various border villages, beyond that I'm not sure how far they would get. Sure their army is big, but most of their equipment is hopelessly obsolete 50's era Soviet stuff, they have major fuel shortages so training is heavily restricted, and much of their army is not well fed. For them it would quickly turn into a rout and a meat grinder.

By what artillery?  It's 20 miles from the border (35ish Km).

[General Battuta]

problem is N Korea has the strength according to most assessments to cause a lot of damage even with American support for the South and South Korea just cant afford that kind of conflict.  remember that though not thought to be well trained or equipped officially every able bodied man not in the army is a reservist and their army is damned big, whether that weight in numbers is enough to overcome the technological and training superiority of the South Korean and the American forces has been questioned here before but you can guarantee that if the North's army is anything like the size it is supposed to be the conflict will be bloody on both sides.

Seoul would be flattened in the initial artillery barrage, and so would the various border villages, beyond that I'm not sure how far they would get. Sure their army is big, but most of their equipment is hopelessly obsolete 50's era Soviet stuff, they have major fuel shortages so training is heavily restricted, and much of their army is not well fed. For them it would quickly turn into a rout and a meat grinder.

By what artillery?  It's 20 miles from the border (35ish Km).

North Korean artillery can make shots at ranges approaching that. Maybe exceeding it.

Read: here

[Bobboau]

keep in mind that there is no real defense against artillery, even 1940s era artillery.

[Mars]

keep in mind that there is no real defense against artillery, even 1940s era artillery.

Unforeseen offense.


I'm not angling for a preemptive strike. I'm just saying that I earnestly hope we have a plan in place to destroy as much of their artillery as possible before they can fire if we have to.

[General Battuta]

We do. The packages lined up for the first half hour of any notional new Korean war make Gulf War 1's opening look like playtime.

[NGTM-1R]

By what artillery?  It's 20 miles from the border (35ish Km).

20 miles isn't as far as it used to be, particularly given all the FROG-series rocket artillery the North Koreans have.

[headdie]

the verbal bashing has started

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11823474

also has a crude military brake down at the bottom but neglects equipment age and over the horizon capability

[Nemesis6]

I don't really think the north superiority in infantry numbers would mean anything, because North Korean military tactics are... crude, to put it one way.

[Mars]

I don't really think the north superiority in infantry numbers would mean anything, because North Korean military tactics are... crude, to put it one way.

Roughly what it means is that the North Koreans spend $4,520 per soldier, and the South Koreans spend $35,662 per soldier.