Yeah, I feel everything you asserted in that post is superficially reasonable but ultimately not applicable to the realities of publishing. Industries are shrinking, standards are up, getting published is harder and unlike in the days of yore you can't make a living selling by volume any more.
This post makes the point nicely. The statistics you linked do nothing to contradict any of it.
I'll summarize your argument for ya:
-Writing on a typewriter is hard! Indeed. Thank goodness we have improved technology today so we can spend effort on things that actually matter, instead of painstaking technical hurdles. The laborious nature of writing on a typewriter or by hand does not guarantee any increase in quality; if anything it is responsible for many of the difficulties older manuscripts faced.
-There was more censorship in the past! Indeed. Lucky we don't have to deal with that **** any more. Also lucky that good authors were still able to talk about very disturbing things if they needed to. Censorship is anathema to good literature.
-Costs of publishing are down! Maybe, but irrelevant when the revenue is shrinking faster. The American SF publishing industry is contracting in most sectors; literature and literary SF and fantasy are both far more selective. It's harder to get published by a legitimate, reputable house these days. I don't know how it's working out for the British School.
-Readers had higher standards! Not so, judging by the trash that got published back then. Sturgeon's Law holds then as it did now. In fact almost every book in the SF sector published in the era between the 1900s and the...1970s, I'd say at a guess, would be a laughingstock today. The survivors of that era are what you hold up as classics, but you're ignoring the enormous morass of crap that was produced by the 'Golden Age'.
In fact, authors today have such higher standards that they famously
attacked a publisher which claimed to have quality standards but didn't, simply by writing intentional crap in the mold of old pulp.
You provided a nice refutation of your own points right here:
What it comes to earlier writers getting more money, writing has never been a kind of job where everybody gets rich - which sometimes is just being at the right place at the right time. My personal opinion is that if writer cannot nowadays get his work published, his writing, to put it bluntly, sucks.
Indeed. Unlike in the past, people who suck find it hard to get published these days. This is why the rejection rate for would-be authors is up so high; standards have improved. This is why the self-publishing industry has had such success. This is also why the general quality of SF lit at the elite level has increased. Failures or the mediocre now go into media SF or to specialty houses like Baen.
The brutal fact is that people looking to go into SF or fantasy publication are taught to expect 350-400 rejections before selling a single short story.
Just one. That kind of rejection rate was not as commonplace back in the gee-whiz nuclear-rockets 40s and 50s.
I understand your argument, that submission volume is up, but I think you're out of touch with the realities of the publishing industry. It is a shrinking sector that only allows a few elites to survive and presents massive barriers to entry. The only way to get in is either to be really good, really lucky, or to go into media tie-ins or paranormal romance. As a result, the ratio of **** to gold is probably better than it has been in some time.
Make no mistake: in general the industry is dying, and only the strong survive. When I spend time at SFWA functions, most of the old guard are writers who would never be published in today's climes. The rare newcomers are young, strong writers (Ted Chiang; Cat Valente; many others) who are several cuts above.
All in all what I think we have here is a classic case of the 'good old days' bias. Summed up nicely by our subject:
Personally, I think that almost guarantees the opposite, for it is controversy, scandals, mudslinging and revelations that are quite popular today.
The most superficial grasp of history would tell you that this is exactly how things have been for decades. Centuries, really.