[MP-Ryan]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/doug-saunders/emboldened-by-egypt-iranians-take-to-the-streets/article1907126/

There's some major events brewing in Iran these past few days.  February 11 is the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, where pro-democratic forces helped put Khomeini in power to create an Islamic Republic - which he promptly turned into a religious dictatorship.  Iran has had a pro-democracy movement for the better part of a century that has been continuously suppressed but is still quite alive.  They're using Egypt as an excuse, and the dates they've picked are very significant.

Th '79 revolution started with the same sorts of things we're seeing now, and escalated to the point where there were literally too many protesters for the government security forces to arrest.  The Revolutionary Guard is more powerful than those forces were, but the Iranian populace is even more organized now.

Keep your eyes on it.  We might see history in the making inside of a few weeks or months.

[General Battuta]

Iran has a surprisingly liberal and progressive subpopulation buried in there. I hope they can pull it off!

[Shade]

Definitely, it would be great for the country and great for the region as a whole.

The problem is that, unlike in Egypt, the Iranian army has absolutely no compunctions about using lethal force if they're left without other options, and generally don't give a damn about what 'The People' want. Further, they can't be pressured like the Egyptian regime and army could since they don't rely on the west in any significant way, whereas Egypt's armed forces were basically sponsored by the US.

[PsychoLandlord]

Definitely, it would be great for the country and great for the region as a whole.

The problem is that, unlike in Egypt, the Iranian army has absolutly no compunctions about using lethal force if they're left without other options, and generally don't give a damn about what 'The People' want. Further, they can't be pressured like the Egyptian regime and army could since they don't rely on the west in any significant way, whereas Egypt's armed forces were basically sponsored by the US.

This. While having an organized revolution pop up and wrest power from the current regime would (probably) be beneficial for the region, if such a thing does happen it's going to be much bloodier than anything we've seen in these past months.

[Nemesis6]

When the last big protests were going on, the propaganda that came out from the regime and its puppets' mouths was that this was limited to a specific demographic - Young people in Tehran, and that it didn't represent the rest of the population. I am by no means an expert, so I'm wondering how the rest of the country is aligned politically.

[Flipside]

The Iranian leadership know full well how tenuous their position is, it's not just young people in Tehran. After all, one of their biggest embarassments came from someone who was a co-revolutionist with Khomeini during the initial uprisings in 79, who turned around and accused the regime of simply being a copy of the one they overthrew, and was ostracised for saying so.

It's not a question of Faith that has stopped the revolution towards forming a free Islamic state, it's fear of the bloodshed, but it is only a matter of time before the pressure cooker blows.

Edit: The important part is that no-one else get involved, Iran became its own country for the first time in 200 years in '79, and any thoughts of other countries interfering with that will hinder things far more than help them.

[Bobboau]

it's frustrating that there really is not much we can do to help. but exciting to consider what might happen.

[Delta_V]

The ironic thing in all that's going on in the middle east it that it could end up proving George Bush was right about something.    For all the idiotic things he said and did, unlike a lot of people, he did not believe that Islam and democracy were incompatible and thought that setting up just one successful democracy in the region (i.e. Iraq) could result in democracy spreading throughout the region.  While Iraq obviously didn't work out as planned, I could see the events of the last few months achieving that goal.  He may have been wrong about a boatload of other things, but it looks like he may have been right about at least one thing.

[Mars]

I think the advent of social media like Youtube and Facebook, combined with the instability of the region (made worse by president Bush) might explain it.

I certainly don't think it's changing the way Bush intended.

[karajorma]

The ironic thing in all that's going on in the middle east it that it could end up proving George Bush was right about something.   

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

[NGTM-1R]

Iran is in the same position the Soviet Union was at the end, a disgruntled populace, a modernized infrastructure providing no benefits, and multiple organs of state oppression arguing with each other instead of doing their supposed jobs. There is one key exception: Iran's not running out of money.

[Bobboau]

sanctions?

[Grizzly]

sanctions?

Problem with sanctions is that they might hit the people as well (huge problem with North Korea). I am quite sure that there are a lot of sanctions in place already.

[Nuclear1]

it's frustrating that there really is not much we can do to help. but exciting to consider what might happen.

Best thing we can do is just sit it out.  Iranians might hate the theofascists in power, but as a whole, they hate the US just as much.  All it's going to take for Ahmadenijad to crack down on the protestors is to find any evidence of US support or involvement in the protests. 

The ironic thing in all that's going on in the middle east it that it could end up proving George Bush was right about something.    For all the idiotic things he said and did, unlike a lot of people, he did not believe that Islam and democracy were incompatible and thought that setting up just one successful democracy in the region (i.e. Iraq) could result in democracy spreading throughout the region.  While Iraq obviously didn't work out as planned, I could see the events of the last few months achieving that goal.  He may have been wrong about a boatload of other things, but it looks like he may have been right about at least one thing.

Yeah, but Egypt overthrew their dictator through weeks of massive demonstrations and popular outrage.  Saddam was overthrown through foreign military intervention, and the image of the US as liberators has been lost by the strings of war crimes perpetuated or permitted by the coalition inside Iraq.

Iraq's also one of the Middle East countries rising up with popular outrage as a result of Tunisia.  I'd rather see the Iraqis and the people of other Middle East countries change their governments.  The Egyptian and Tunisian people affected better change more quickly and with a lot less bloodshed than we did in Iraq.

[Nuclear1]

edit:  i double post because i r idiot

[Nuke]

is this the islamic hippy movement?

[BengalTiger]

All it's going to take for Ahmadenijad to crack down on the protestors is to find any evidence of US support or involvement in the protests. 

Find?

[Nuclear1]

All it's going to take for Ahmadenijad to crack down on the protestors is to find any evidence of US support or involvement in the protests. 

Find?

Find, manufacture, whatever.

Point is, we've been meddling in that part of the world for too long.  It might do us some good to not get involved in Iran.

[Bobboau]

yeah, I want to help them but I cannot think of any way we can, nothing that could actually work anyway.

[karajorma]

it's frustrating that there really is not much we can do to help. but exciting to consider what might happen.

Best thing we can do is just sit it out.  Iranians might hate the theofascists in power, but as a whole, they hate the US just as much.  All it's going to take for Ahmadenijad to crack down on the protestors is to find any evidence of US support or involvement in the protests. 

What if the US came out in support of Ahmadenijad?

"The US does not support Iran devolving into chaos. It might be better for everyone concerned if the protesters went home and let Ahmadenijad find a peaceful solution"


That should get them out on the streets.