Author Topic: Japanese Earthquake  (Read 19046 times)

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Offline Mongoose

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So I just had this video linked on another forum I visit, and...well...just watch it. :D

 

Offline jr2

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Awesomesauce.  :D

i will be happy to calmly and respectfully explain why nuclear is not inherintly dangerous when i get back.

Please.  I'd like to know some of the more technical reasons behind its safety.

In my mind it's like flying on a 747.



You are in a hollow metal tube with thousands of gallons of flammable fuel, supported by two metal wings bouncing happily up and down in the turbulence at 35,000 feet, where the air pressure outside is low enough to kill you and the temperature is -40 to -80, and there are 4 engines, each containing multiple turbines spinning at tens of thousands of rotations per minute suspended under said bouncing wings which also house part of the before-mentioned fuel.     ... And it's still safer than driving my year 2000 Saturn SL2 down the street.  Am I scared to drive my Saturn?  No.  Am I scared to fly in a modern airliner?  Yes.  Do I refuse to fly in them and say those that do are asking for trouble and not smart enough to realize that airliners are 'inherently dangerous'? No.  And flying in an airliner IS inherently dangerous.  ...Just not as dangerous as driving my car. 



Airliners are safer than most conventional transportation in much the same way as a nuclear power plant is safer than a coal power plant. Because flying is so potentially dangerous, multiple layers of safety are used, thousands of man-hours in training, procedure, and inspection and millions of dollars go into correct training and ensuring the safe and proper operating of the equipment.

PS Weirdly enough, I actually enjoy flying, even though I'm scared every time.  I'm afraid of heights and like flying.  :lol:
« Last Edit: March 18, 2011, 08:45:53 pm by jr2 »

 

Offline Sandwich

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Actually, I believe the reason driving is so dangerous is because of the human factor - any single individual can quickly and easily cause a critical situation on the roads. The responsibility of being a driver is, ahh, how shall I put it? It's not monitored. :D
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"...The quintessential quality of our age is that of dreams coming true. Just think of it. For centuries we have dreamt of flying; recently we made that come true: we have always hankered for speed; now we have speeds greater than we can stand: we wanted to speak to far parts of the Earth; we can: we wanted to explore the sea bottom; we have: and so  on, and so on: and, too, we wanted the power to smash our enemies utterly; we have it. If we had truly wanted peace, we should have had that as well. But true peace has never been one of the genuine dreams - we have got little further than preaching against war in order to appease our consciences. The truly wishful dreams, the many-minded dreams are now irresistible - they become facts." - 'The Outward Urge' by John Wyndham

"The very essence of tolerance rests on the fact that we have to be intolerant of intolerance. Stretching right back to Kant, through the Frankfurt School and up to today, liberalism means that we can do anything we like as long as we don't hurt others. This means that if we are tolerant of others' intolerance - especially when that intolerance is a call for genocide - then all we are doing is allowing that intolerance to flourish, and allowing the violence that will spring from that intolerance to continue unabated." - Bren Carlill

  

Offline jr2

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True.  But, by the same token, if both the pilot and copilot err, it affects the safety of +/- 400 individuals plus if you happen to be over a populated area, those on the ground, not just 1-12 or maybe about 50 or so if you're driving a bus.  So yeah the human factor but wouldn't the human factor in an aircraft be worse?

Although I suppose a huge number of reckless drivers are tolerated whereas a reckless pilot wouldn't be.

 

Offline Kosh

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True.  But, by the same token, if both the pilot and copilot err, it affects the safety of +/- 400 individuals plus if you happen to be over a populated area, those on the ground, not just 1-12 or maybe about 50 or so if you're driving a bus.  So yeah the human factor but wouldn't the human factor in an aircraft be worse?

Although I suppose a huge number of reckless drivers are tolerated whereas a reckless pilot wouldn't be.

Most of the flight is done on autopilot.
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Offline Sandwich

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True.  But, by the same token, if both the pilot and copilot err, it affects the safety of +/- 400 individuals plus if you happen to be over a populated area, those on the ground, not just 1-12 or maybe about 50 or so if you're driving a bus.  So yeah the human factor but wouldn't the human factor in an aircraft be worse?

Although I suppose a huge number of reckless drivers are tolerated whereas a reckless pilot wouldn't be.

Potentially worse per incident, sure. But the human factor in commercial flight is more regulated, controlled, has more fail-safes, and even has a backup human on-hand should the main human go bonkers. Finally, add on top of that the rigorous screening and training process aspiring pilots need to go through before setting foot inside the cockpit.

Now compare that to your average 15-year-old getting their license.

I think I'll fly, thanks.
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"...The quintessential quality of our age is that of dreams coming true. Just think of it. For centuries we have dreamt of flying; recently we made that come true: we have always hankered for speed; now we have speeds greater than we can stand: we wanted to speak to far parts of the Earth; we can: we wanted to explore the sea bottom; we have: and so  on, and so on: and, too, we wanted the power to smash our enemies utterly; we have it. If we had truly wanted peace, we should have had that as well. But true peace has never been one of the genuine dreams - we have got little further than preaching against war in order to appease our consciences. The truly wishful dreams, the many-minded dreams are now irresistible - they become facts." - 'The Outward Urge' by John Wyndham

"The very essence of tolerance rests on the fact that we have to be intolerant of intolerance. Stretching right back to Kant, through the Frankfurt School and up to today, liberalism means that we can do anything we like as long as we don't hurt others. This means that if we are tolerant of others' intolerance - especially when that intolerance is a call for genocide - then all we are doing is allowing that intolerance to flourish, and allowing the violence that will spring from that intolerance to continue unabated." - Bren Carlill

 

Offline Herra Tohtori

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Most of the flight is done on autopilot.


Human error is the primary or contributing factor in vast majority of airplane accidents. In most of these cases, it's pilot error. In the rest, it's usually negligent maintenance, incorrect preparations of the plane (for which the captain is primarily responsible) such as bad cargo loading (incorrect centre of gravity calculations), bad fuel loading (too little fuel to reach destination) or other reason. Usually it's a series of human errors, rather than one single bad decision event.

Second most important reason is bad flight conditions, ie. weather related factors. These often contribute to the accidents by exacerbating the pilot errors by reducing recovery margins - if the pilot makes a bad decision, weather can make it harder or impossible to recover from.

Third most important reason is mechanical or electronical failures, of which majority can be attributed to negligent maintenance or ignoring safety protocols. The rest are usually material failures or design flaws, and these are the minority here.


Autopilot as such is little more than glorified cruise control, using automobile analogy, with an integrated navigator (GPS or VOR based). It only does what it's told to do. In all exceptional situations, pilots are required to deal with the situation.

Flight computers in modern airliners can help with controlling the aircraft itself and not exceeding safety limits, but the pilots are the ones who fly the plane and the captain of the plane is the one who makes the decisions on what to do and how to fly the plane.


In many ways, this is the exact same thing that causes the majority of automobile accidents. The reasons for accidents are in same order, even: The most important factor is the driver, then weather and road conditions (and driver's responsibility is to adapt their way of driving to changing conditions), and then mechanical failures which rarely if ever cause fatal accidents.

Ironically, same pattern can be noticed in the present nuclear incidents.

Human operator error has been the primary reason in most nuclear incidents (Chernobyl (exacerbated by design flaws and lack of safety culture) SL-1)

Second most important have been forces of nature. (Fukushima - caused technological failures due to insufficient systems redundancies)

Third most important, technological failures (TMI (exacerbated by human operator errors) and Kyshtym (though arguably Kyshtym disaster was worse than Fukushima and TMI, just less known) )


I can't help but notice this conversation getting de-railed worse every day.
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Offline Androgeos Exeunt

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I can name a few airplane accidents that were caused by human error. The one at Tenerife, for instance, or KAL 007...


I can't help but notice this conversation getting de-railed worse every day.

Must you? :rolleyes:
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Offline karajorma

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I don't know if the fact that I only hear the causes of major crashes is skewing my feeling on this but from memory,

British Airways at Heathrow - Design Flaw
Hudson River Crash - Bird Strike
Air France from Brazil - No one ****ing knows

I suspect the airline you choose to fly with might also affect the cause.
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Offline achtung

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The vast majority of air transport, and even moreso, general aviation accidents are mostly attributed to human factors. The same applies to most "technical operator" industries I would assume.
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Offline Klaustrophobia

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Four NC State professors are holding a symposium tomorrow at 5 pm (eastern).  These four guys are about as expert as they come.  Dr. Turinsky in particular has done goddamn near everything in the commercial nuclear world.  He teaches the nuclear systems class and has a story for EVERYTHING.  He was involved in the TMI investigation, and currently heads a huge government-grant research project with a bunch of other universities and national labs.

Info and live stream here for anyone interested.
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Offline watsisname

Nice, that's just when I get home from class.  I'll try to catch it. :)
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Offline T-LoW

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Wow here is a video of the tsunami before it reached the coast - creepy.

Tsunami of Tohoku Earthquake Before Wrecking the Coast
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Offline Androgeos Exeunt

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Good link, T-Low. I've always wondered how a tsunami would look like when a video of it is shot on a boat out at sea. Now I know. :)

It's amazing how the boat went over it so easily. My Top Gear experience tells me that the seas around Dover are occasionally much more violent.
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Offline Klaustrophobia

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well unfortunately there wasn't a whole lot new in the discussion.  i was hoping they might have better info than what we've been getting, but they were working off the same mess of inconsistent data and conjecture as the rest of us. 
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Offline Sandwich

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It's amazing how the boat went over it so easily. My Top Gear experience tells me that the seas around Dover are occasionally much more violent.

The reason for that is due to the sea depth; the farther out at sea, the deeper the ocean floor, the less of a wave you'll see on the surface. It's only the compression of all that moving water as it reaches shallow depths that gives the larger waves typically associated with tsunamis. Same thing goes for your run-of-the-mill ocean waves, btw.

The reason the boat handled the wave so easily was because they were steaming into the wave head-on. Any other orientation would be foolish.
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"...The quintessential quality of our age is that of dreams coming true. Just think of it. For centuries we have dreamt of flying; recently we made that come true: we have always hankered for speed; now we have speeds greater than we can stand: we wanted to speak to far parts of the Earth; we can: we wanted to explore the sea bottom; we have: and so  on, and so on: and, too, we wanted the power to smash our enemies utterly; we have it. If we had truly wanted peace, we should have had that as well. But true peace has never been one of the genuine dreams - we have got little further than preaching against war in order to appease our consciences. The truly wishful dreams, the many-minded dreams are now irresistible - they become facts." - 'The Outward Urge' by John Wyndham

"The very essence of tolerance rests on the fact that we have to be intolerant of intolerance. Stretching right back to Kant, through the Frankfurt School and up to today, liberalism means that we can do anything we like as long as we don't hurt others. This means that if we are tolerant of others' intolerance - especially when that intolerance is a call for genocide - then all we are doing is allowing that intolerance to flourish, and allowing the violence that will spring from that intolerance to continue unabated." - Bren Carlill