Author Topic: Race, politics, and stupidity  (Read 57607 times)

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Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
So have we pretty much come to the conclusion that the generally accepted academic explanation for the post-60s industrialized world crime spike has even less evidence than the bonehead social conservative moralizer explanation? And they say the LIEberal Elite controlling our education system is just a conspiracy theory, lol.

While we're on the subject I'd like to point out that weakening of social norms and Battuta's explanations can interact. Reduced job security and immigration can both weaken social norms. Weakened social norms can increase drug use and vice versa. You can't deny, though, that your grandma has a point when she talks about the "good old days", when everyone worked twelve hours a day in a factory for a few slices of bread but at least there wasn't as much crime and people were polite. I'd also like to pounce on GB's earlier claim that happiness keep going up. Actually, if I remember correctly self-reported happiness scores have been almost perfectly stable for the past 50 years and female happiness has actually gone down.  So no substantial difference there.

If you look at the Wikipedia graph of the US crime trend that GB provided it meshes pretty well with something a Republican might have drawn. The counterculture, and crime, was biggest in the 60s and 70s. Then people get bored with it, people vote for Reagan on his traditional values schtick, and the crime rate falls through the 90s and 2000s as Fundies take over. You'd only expect a linear trend if social norms continued to weaken indefinitely, but I don't think that's the case. A few specific values are changing (like acceptance of homosexuality) but overall social cons have gained strength in recent years. Just my non-liberal-arts-educated opinion.

 

Offline Topgun

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Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
So have we pretty much come to the conclusion that the generally accepted academic explanation for the post-60s industrialized world crime spike has even less evidence than the bonehead social conservative moralizer explanation? And they say the LIEberal Elite controlling our education system is just a conspiracy theory, lol.

While we're on the subject I'd like to point out that weakening of social norms and Battuta's explanations can interact. Reduced job security and immigration can both weaken social norms. Weakened social norms can increase drug use and vice versa. You can't deny, though, that your grandma has a point when she talks about the "good old days", when everyone worked twelve hours a day in a factory for a few slices of bread but at least there wasn't as much crime and people were polite. I'd also like to pounce on GB's earlier claim that happiness keep going up. Actually, if I remember correctly self-reported happiness scores have been almost perfectly stable for the past 50 years and female happiness has actually gone down.  So no substantial difference there.

If you look at the Wikipedia graph of the US crime trend that GB provided it meshes pretty well with something a Republican might have drawn. The counterculture, and crime, was biggest in the 60s and 70s. Then people get bored with it, people vote for Reagan on his traditional values schtick, and the crime rate falls through the 90s and 2000s as Fundies take over. You'd only expect a linear trend if social norms continued to weaken indefinitely, but I don't think that's the case. Specific values are changing (like homosexuality) but overall social cons have gained strength in recent years. Just my non-liberal-arts-educated opinion.

psss, crime fell because of abortion....

 
Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
That wouldn't explain why it rose, though, after 1960.

 

Offline Topgun

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Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
That wouldn't explain why it rose, though, after 1960.

and?

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
So have we pretty much come to the conclusion that the generally accepted academic explanation for the post-60s industrialized world crime spike has even less evidence than the bonehead social conservative moralizer explanation? And they say the LIEberal Elite controlling our education system is just a conspiracy theory, lol.

No I don't think we've even discussed that. Also that was a ****ty troll.

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You can't deny, though, that your grandma has a point when she talks about the "good old days", when everyone worked twelve hours a day in a factory for a few slices of bread but at least there wasn't as much crime and people were polite.

Uh yes you can. People were rude as **** and our country's history is full of crime waves. Our president threw citizens in internment camps, we shot and killed each other, we lynched our neighbors, corporate corruption was rampant, there were no good old days.

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I'd also like to pounce on GB's earlier claim that happiness keep going up. Actually, if I remember correctly self-reported happiness scores have been almost perfectly stable for the past 50 years and female happiness has actually gone down.

I'm looking at a bigger picture there.

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If you look at the Wikipedia graph of the US crime trend that GB provided it meshes pretty well with something a Republican might have drawn. The counterculture, and crime, was biggest in the 60s and 70s. Then people get bored with it, people vote for Reagan on his traditional values schtick, and the crime rate falls through the 90s and 2000s as Fundies take over. You'd only expect a linear trend if social norms continued to weaken indefinitely, but I don't think that's the case. A few specific values are changing (like acceptance of homosexuality) but overall social cons have gained strength in recent years. Just my non-liberal-arts-educated opinion.

It meshes pretty well with something a Communist would have drawn. The worker's revolution was at its peak in the 60s and 70s and the unrest among the proletariat was at its height. Revolution was imminent. Unfortunately the Soviet Union collapsed due to BETRAYAL and the capitalists were able to regain control.

You can make up whatever story you like to account for it but it's just a fairy tale. Don't try to reduce complex epiphenomenal systems to simple morality plays. Social mores have gone all over the place in the past few decades, you can't seriously make the claim that somehow the country is undergoing a massive return to an illusionary past that never existed.

That wouldn't explain why it rose, though, after 1960.

Uh bro birth control's impact on the population wouldn't start kicking in until at least 12-20 years after the birth control revolution.

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
Haha look at this ****ing heatmap

Yeah those crime hotspots are clearly related primarily to the breakdown of family values. Must be all those radical leftist immigrants.

 
Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
So what if rednecks are responsible for all the crimes? It doesn't explain changes in crime rates. I don't see much support for your alternate hypothesis looking at a similar increase in the same timespan in other countries, even in ones with minimal non-European immigration until recently (like Germany) and stable inequality.



Also your use of epiphenomenal is highly susquepidalian.

  

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
You spelled it wrong, I didn't say a thing about rednecks, I don't see much support for any hypothesis beyond 'a time of unrest' in there (I mean FFS that graph has one country named Germany), and now that you're trying to derive hypotheses to explain global trends maybe it'd be a better idea to just go read a book about it.

Like I always say if one person is arguing for 'here is a simple answer' and the other is arguing for 'it is really complicated and it's hard to know' it's usually a safe bet the latter is more right.

 
Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
I'm not looking for a simple answer. It's just that the usual explanations - immigration, drugs, the economy - are even weaker than what I'm saying. No doubt multiple factors were involved, but changing values was probably one.

 
Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
You spelled it wrong, I didn't say a thing about rednecks

Yeah, well that heatmap wasn't very redneck-state friendly.

 

Offline Topgun

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Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
Haha look at this ****ing heatmap

Yeah those crime hotspots are clearly related primarily to the breakdown of family values. Must be all those radical leftist immigrants.

that makes me feel like crime is related to climate

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
I'm not looking for a simple answer.

Then why do you keep presenting them? You just wrote a lengthy post presenting a simple answer.

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t's just that the usual explanations - immigration, drugs, the economy - are even weaker than what I'm saying. No doubt multiple factors were involved, but changing values was probably one.

What basis do you have to say that? You've presented no counterevidence at all. You haven't even established that these are the standard explanations.

Nor this

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but changing values was probably one.

seems to have any backing at all beyond the fact that you saw a graph and you think values changed in that era so they must be connected. You're starting from a conclusion and working backward to fit the evidence.

You spelled it wrong, I didn't say a thing about rednecks

Yeah, well that heatmap wasn't very redneck-state friendly.

You continue to confuse correlation with causation.

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
Look your position is basically 'hippies cause crime' and my position is basically 'the economy, drugs, and immigration cause crime'.

Why don't we all go read 'Criminology' by Larry J. Siegel who has presumably done infinitely more research and come back when we're done with it.

 
Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
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Then why do you keep presenting them? You just wrote a lengthy post presenting a simple answer.

I said that cultural explanations didn't contradict the trend, not that they were the only reason for the trend.

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What basis do you have to say that? You've presented no counterevidence at all. You haven't even established that these are the standard explanations.

You put them forth them earlier in the thread when asked, and I think I read them somewhere else too. I've already pointed out countries with minimal immigration/change in inequality having the same trend in crime rates. I don't care if they are the standard explanations. Do you have a good explanation for why crime rates increased so drastically post-1960 in industrialized countries, or at least in the US, and can you elaborate it and present evidence? Or else I can read Larry Siegel.

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seems to have any backing at all beyond the fact that you saw a graph and you think values changed in that era so they must be connected. You're starting from a conclusion and working backward to fit the evidence.

I've presented other evidence (the Amish), and it's nice to know if a theory is at least worth considering given the data.

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You continue to confuse correlation with causation.

I was continuing to be unfunny.

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Why don't we all go read 'Criminology' by Larry J. Siegel who has presumably done infinitely more research and come back when we're done with it.

Now, I might if I can get it for free. If so I'll check it out.

 
Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
This textbook, right?

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
The one I googled up had 600 pages, those extra 200 are probably really important and demonstrate how right I am

 
Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
Derp, you know pages 27 to 455 are never shown in the preview.

I'll check the book's wikipedia or something. If there is information behind your argument it has to be somewhere on the internet.

edit: Nope, nothing there, link me to something if you want me to read it.

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
I just don't buy any argument about 'counterculture' causing it in the 60s. Crime waves are a historical phenomenon which occur again and again and there weren't any time traveling hippies to make it happen. Maybe all the long-running wars and revolutions and civil rights movements and ghetto uprisings and drug rings and bursts of immigration and other crazy **** in the 60s has something more to do with don't you think

 
Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
Anyway, do you think the explanation of economy, drugs and immigration is generalizable to explain the increase in crime outside the US, even in countries were immigration and economic factors didn't change much?

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I just don't buy any argument about 'counterculture' causing it in the 60s. Crime waves are a historical phenomenon which occur again and again and there weren't any time traveling hippies to make it happen. Maybe all the long-running wars and revolutions and civil rights movements and ghetto uprisings and drug rings and bursts of immigration and other crazy **** in the 60s has something more to do with don't you think

Do crime waves usually last this long? 50 years later and rates are still way above what they were?

 

Offline General Battuta

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Re: Race, politics, and stupidity
systemic changes in trade and immigration and other big machines, not individual mores, across the board