For nVidia's side of the fence, anything 8800GT 512 or later should be reasonably decent. Pre-8800 GT will still likely do well, (indeed, my old 7600 GT still holds decent frame rates) there is more complexity involved that pretty much require the concept test shaders to really work out well, but those still have issues as well so it's kind of a "6 of one, half dozen of the other" deal. And it only really works out at all thanks to the aformentioned "#pragma unroll" option we are using.
Driver wise, there are currently only 3 drivers that I know of that don't have issues with FSO: 257.21, 260.99, 270.61. Anything else is either suspect or confirmed as having issues with how they decided to handle "deprecating" older features for reasons I'm still trying to understand.