Logistically, the loss of Capella is going to devastate the GTVA's economy and the ships that escaped are going to be too busy ferrying food and clothing for refugees to toss the military a screwdriver.
What gives you that impression? I'm not saying you're wrong, but I just don't get what information you're thinking of. That, and I don't think they NEED to toss the military a screwdriver; the war with the Shivans is over (for now/a while) and the NTF has been thoroughly defeated.
If the GTVA was willing to commit that many forces in a single engagement the war would have been over ages ago. Have fun speculating what would happen in bpmassivebattle3.fs2 though.
The GTVA would be completely willing to commit that many forces in a single engagement--the UEF is invading them, and the GTVA has a proven trump-card up their sleeves--along with the element of surprise with regards to that trump card--making a single huge engagement very much in their favor. The GTVA also hugely outnumbers the UEF forces--sure, they will probably keep a good number of them back for defense in case of Shivans, but I imagine the UEF would not commit the sum of its fleets to this invasion, meaning that you won't have all 3 Solaris destroyers in the field, at the least.
In FS2, the GTVA definitely committed those numbers and much more against the Shivan incursion, and it's implied that they still have a good deal more where that came from (though much of it is kept in defense of their systems, and when there are 80 Shivan juggernauts incoming, none of that matters...).
It takes 30 seconds to recharge an LRBGreen, three shots to kill a Karuna, and another month of repairs to the Collie for every shot. TerSlash lacks range. GTVA bombers are a joke in BP.
...and 3 shots could be brought to bear at once, maybe even from a single Orion. Besides, UEF ships do near-constant damage over time, but it takes a while for that damage to reach critical levels (usually).
GTVA bombers aren't a joke...sure, they're inferior to their UEF counterparts, but not entirely; the top-tier UEF bombers are very few in number. The Artemis medium bombers are not bad at all, provided they're given some fighter cover.
Also, don't forget the immense power of Maxims; if an Erinyes is equipped with 8 of them, it can do (based on shorthand calculations) nearly 1400 damage per second from 3000+ meters away, with primaries alone. Trebuchets give a modest boost to that (as well as sniping subsystems and fighter cover); Infyrno missiles, though closer range weapons, can ramp up that DPS to very threatening levels.
TerSlash beams (not the blue versions) may not be worth much, but they still do significant damage, and most UEF ships are not exactly hearty; it adds up.
As for overdriving the BGreens on the Colossus--no, it does not end up with a month of repairs for each shot. At all. After its fight against the Sathanas, it was stated to need 3 months for repair back up to full capability, and that was after using overdriven beam cannons for several minutes straight (as well as any potential damage from the Sathanas' LReds). Despite that, the Colossus would then go on to take on a bunch of Shivan ships as a diversion, and still wipe the floor with cruisers and a destroyer (potentially more; can't remember) with those same beam cannons (no longer overdriven).
Factor the morale and psychological aspects back in, and things would go downhill for the UEF very quickly in that situation.
You seem to keep mentioning this psychology and morale like the Feds are going to soil their pants and discard their training and rational philosophy rather than make dick jokes about it
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Uh...what? When your force is in full retreat back to your territory after a major fleet engagement, and you already have a destroyer and several corvettes blocking your way, things aren't going well. Then the Colossus shows up without warning, right off your flank--a monster of a warship, over six kilometers long and voluminous to house 6 Lucifers inside its hull. Dozens of fighters launch from the ship as it opens up with several BGreens (or even LRBGreens), and maybe a couple slash beams (potentially destroying a ship or two right off the bat). THEN another destroyer shows up, along with at least a couple corvettes and some cruisers.
I'm not saying they'd crap their pants, but it would put despair and hopelessness on their minds to a huge degree. Even if you overcome that, it still is one more thing you have to overcome in a losing battle.
And the UEF has far superior fighter craft, superior anti-fighter screens on their warships, anti-subsystem missiles that can't be shot down, fighter-mounted railguns, and enough saturating fire to overwhelm intercept efforts. Furthermore, the Colossus can't launch all its fighters at once, provided it can at all; it has a track record of having a broken fighter bay in critical engagements and a single well-placed warhead would do it all over again.
We're looking at 2 potential scenarios here. One of them does not give the UEF as much of a craft advantage. The other means that the UEF doesn't have beam jamming in the first place, making the likelihood of this scenario occurring very small to begin with.
The Colossus wouldn't need to launch all of its fighters at once; it could have deployed them well beforehand, and had them all jump in at once. In this combat scenario, the UEF probably wouldn't have their OP anti-subsystem missiles to begin with. Only Uriels have those railguns (assuming that the handful of super-advanced bombers the UEF has were still around 18 years ago). They'd have been top priority targets for a while now, especially in the previous stage of this battle, and now they're still top priority targets to the dozens upon dozens of GTVA fighters.
The remaining UEF bombers (especially the ones capable of carrying such a warhead, assuming they existed 18 years ago) would not get near enough to the Colossus to ensure a hit, even if it somehow magically knew the potential weaknesses of the Colossus.
UEF ships are not THAT hard to take down; even assuming they were that capable 18 years ago, they're still helpless against Maxims, and bombers would probably be used as either a distraction or an attack to be used against ships with weakened point defenses. Or as heavy missile boats against enemy fighters.
The only reason the GTVA didn't get kicked out of Sol after the First Battle of Neptune is that the Elders wouldn't allow an operation to secure the node. You're seriously underestimating the UEF.
...what? Erm...what? The First Battle of Neptune, IIRC, was a victory for the UEF in that they held off the GTVA attack and inflicted significant ship losses, but they took major ship losses of their own, and the GTVA destroyer got away. The GTVA still had a sizable force at the node, and was capable of sending in major reinforcements in an emergency.
Oh, and the only reason the UEF didn't lose outright in less than a day is because the Vishnans intervened and whisked the entire 14th Battlegroup into an alternate dimension full of Shivans and no allies in sight. And then the 14th BG didn't carry out their orders. They still casually obliterated a UEF frigate, though.
Not that I wanted them to succeed like that at all--I'm not some GTVA fanboy--but I think you're seriously overestimating the UEF. Especially in a situation in which they're launching a massive invasion into enemy territory--something in which their military is totally ill-suited for.