Author Topic: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)  (Read 31121 times)

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I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=qPK

Obama wins, 324 to 214.  The casting of ballots, at this point, is a formality necessary only to verify this result.  (Actually, I'm waffling on Virginia and Iowa, but give me my moment.)

I got up this morning, and read that Romney had announced his VP at an hour on Saturday morning, when nobody would be awake to hear him, and I get the sneaking suspicion that that was by design, because what an awful pick.  Mitt Romney choosing to run alongside Paul Ryan is literally the same as John McCain choosing to run alongside Sarah Palin.  Romney gains nothing from the choice and ensures key swing states vote against him.

Do you know who else was on Romney's short list?  Rob Portman.  Rob Portman would have brought Ohio within reach of the Romney campaign.  What would Portman have cost the Romney campaign?  Michigan?  It's been pretty bloody obvious for a month, now, that Romney has no chance of winning Michigan.  Rob Portman could have provided the Romney campaign a path to victory.  Yes, they'd have had to work pretty hard to win all of the other east coast swing states, but the path was there.

The Paul Ryan choice not only avoids this path to victory for Romney, but it ensures that Obama can easily turn the elderly population of Florida against the GOP ticket this year.  If you live in Florida and own a television, then prepare to be hammered with ads, from now, until November, about the Romney ticket standing for an end to Medicare, because that's all you're going to hear, and that's all that Obama needs to say to carry the state.

Now, if you're wondering why this is coming off as so ranty, it's not because I'm a Romney supporter, quite the opposite, in fact.  I just hate seeing political strategy that's so blatantly bone-headed as this play out.  I mean sweet, ****ting Christ, at least when McCain picked Palin, she was an unknown.  Paul Ryan made his wingnuttiness well-known with his budget proposal, back in March.  This decision says to me that the GOP is so preoccupied with pandering to the Tea Party that they just don't care whether or not they see the inside of the White House again for twenty-plus years.  This rant would be no different, if Obama were making decisions to actively court the Democratic Socialists of America.  You cannot base important decisions in a Presidential campaign around what the <5% on the furthest extreme of your party want of you.  In a general election, you have to swing away from the extremes you took in the primary and back to the center.  This is Political Strategy 101 (and I do mean that any university freshman taking a PoliSci course should be able to figure this **** out), so it offends me that there are people raking in a ludicrous salary this year to be such utter morons.  While Romney's pandering to the far right, he could always have his strategists shot to try to further secure the 2.5% of the national population that value an NRA endorsement and were going to vote for him, regardless.  Maybe then, with a team of replacements, he could actually make some vaguely competent effort to win.

tl;dr:  I, someone who wants to see Romney lose the Presidental election, would do a better at helping him win than his current advisors and strategists for a fraction of the price.  (And yeah, if given an offer, I'd probably take it, because at this point, nobody can make Romney win.  A political ninja might be able to shrink that 110ev margin a bit, but you can't snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, when defeat has swallowed victory, digested it, and shat it out the other end already.)

[edit] Fixed the first map link, as it seemed to be pointing to the blank map. [/edit]
« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 12:33:51 pm by BlueFlames »

 

Offline redsniper

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Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
I just hate seeing political strategy that's so blatantly bone-headed as this play out. ...  This decision says to me that the GOP is so preoccupied with pandering to the Tea Party that they just don't care whether or not they see the inside of the White House again for twenty-plus years.

If they want to be boneheads and stay out of power, let 'em. ****ers.
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The future makes happy, if you make it yourself.
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Offline mjn.mixael

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Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
This is a good thread.
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Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
After reading an angry blog post by George RR martin, the republicans don't really care about their strategy, they will just take away your ability to vote...

 

Offline Alex Heartnet

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Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
The way I see it, regardless of anything else we will wind up with a crook in the oval office.

I don't think I am even going to bother going to the poles.  As you said, the outcome is pretty much decided already, and with all the cash in politics I refuse to recognize this as genuine democracy.

 

Offline z64555

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Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
I don't think I am even going to bother going to the poles.  As you said, the outcome is pretty much decided already, and with all the cash in politics I refuse to recognize this as genuine democracy.

Kudos to those who find the fallacy with this statement. :P
Secure the Source, Contain the Code, Protect the Project
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funtapaz: Hunchon University biologists prove mankind is evolving to new, higher form of life, known as Homopithecus Juche.
z64555: s/J/Do
BotenAlfred: <funtapaz> Hunchon University biologists prove mankind is evolving to new, higher form of life, known as Homopithecus Douche.

 
Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
I don't think I am even going to bother going to the poles.  As you said, the outcome is pretty much decided already, and with all the cash in politics I refuse to recognize this as genuine democracy.

Kudos to those who find the fallacy with this statement. :P

1)  Going or not going to a wooden or metal rod (or even a collection of such rods) does not have anything to do with voting.

2)  Correcting for the incorrectly-chosen word, a population that is disenfranchised, whether voluntarily, forcibly, or legislatively (see new state-level voter ID laws) decreases the legitimacy of democracy.

3)  The post feigns agreement with the opening post of the thread, while actually discussing a totally different topic (campaign finance versus bone-headed political strategy).

4)  The post took the opening post's hyperbole about not needing to cast ballots as literal.  Elections are still decided by how the ballots are cast.  Results may correlate to campaign spending, but it is not the spending itself that determines the outcome.

5)  The post actually ignores something implicit about the opening post, that being that Presidential elections in the United States are run on a state-by-state basis, and so if he is in a swing state (or a swing district of Nebraska or Maine), his vote has much greater potential than someone in a state, where the candidates are separated by a wide margin.

6)  Very few ballots will have only the Presidential candidates on them.  All will also have House members running for re-election, and many will have Senators running for re-election.  There may also be local and state offices up for grabs by candidates, who contrary to the poster's implication about campaign financing, are hardly swimming in money and media coverage, despite their offices often having the most power to immediately and practically affect your daily life.

I have a feeling that you're referring to #2, but do I get a prize for the double-hattrick?

 

Offline Aardwolf

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Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
Oh hm... We haven't had a thread about the new voter ID laws yet, have we? Do people outside of the US know about that? If so, more or less than people inside the US?

 
Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
* SpardaSon21 dons flame-resistant clothing.
Romney has my vote this election.

Of course, I live in California so "worthless" isn't a strong enough word to describe a single Republican's vote in this state.
17:37:02   Quanto: I want to have sexual intercourse with every space elf in existence
17:37:11   SpardaSon21: even the males?
17:37:22   Quanto: its not gay if its an elf

[21:51] <@Droid803> I now realize
[21:51] <@Droid803> this will be SLIIIIIGHTLY awkward
[21:51] <@Droid803> as this rich psychic girl will now be tsundere for a loli.
[21:51] <@Droid803> OH WELLL.

See what you're missing in #WoD and #Fsquest?

[07:57:32] <Caiaphas> inspired by HerraTohtori i built a supermaneuverable plane in ksp
[07:57:43] <Caiaphas> i just killed my pilots with a high-g maneuver
[07:58:19] <Caiaphas> apparently people can't take 20 gees for 5 continuous seconds
[08:00:11] <Caiaphas> the plane however performed admirably, and only crashed because it no longer had any guidance systems

 
Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
Romney has my vote this election.

To the point of the thread, was it the choice of Paul Ryan as Romney's VP candidate that made you make that decision, or had you already made your mind up to vote for Romney, regardless?  In either case, do you think that Paul Ryan was a sound choice, given other possible running mates, who could have given Romney an edge in key swing states and given that some of Paul Ryan's stated positions will turn off, not just voters in some of those states, but entire voting blocks, across the nation (the AARP, after all, is the largest and most powerful of special interest groups in the United States and isn't very likely to endorse a ticket with someone who's endorsed the privatization of Social Security or dismantling of Medicare)?

 

Offline The E

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Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
* SpardaSon21 dons flame-resistant clothing.
Romney has my vote this election.

I wonder, as someone who is presumably not a member of the 1%, what do you hope a modern conservative government would do for you? What makes Romney/Ryan desirable for you?
If I'm just aching this can't go on
I came from chasing dreams to feel alone
There must be changes, miss to feel strong
I really need lifе to touch me
--Evergrey, Where August Mourns

 
Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
I'm not sure you could call me a modern conservative.  I'm agnostic, support gay marriage, females serving in combat roles in the military, and the complete legalization of marijuana.  On the other hand, stuff like the bailouts, TARP, and the crap-ton of stimulus spending and yes, Obamacare sit pretty poorly with me since I'm disinclined towards hefty government spending and intervention in the private sector.  Greece is a good example of how not to run a government since their massive borrowing and deficit spending would have ruined them sooner or later, recession or no recession, just like a private citizen who keeps maxing out credit cards and taking out bank mortgages.  America's headed down that same path, too, and I'd like to see that progress halted.

Now, I'm risking peeing on the third rail with that Obamacare statement, so let me just put some stuff out there.  There was no free market health care system before Obamacare.  Various states all had heavy coverage mandates, which will drive up the cost of insurance since companies will charge for whatever they're covering.  You also couldn't purchase insurance across state lines, so you had a pretty ****ty field of options depending on what your state allowed to be sold.  There's also very hefty restrictions on who exactly can provide care, so doctors essentially have a monopoly on providing health care despite physician assistants and nurses being extremely capable in certain areas.  You don't need a medical school degree to do a few stitches, set a broken leg, or do a basic checkup where you ask people where it hurts and start poking them until they go "ow".  Those procedures can all be handled at a lesser level of expertise than a full medical degree.  I went to the dentist about a week ago, and 90% of the visit was the dental hygienist scraping gunk off my teeth, and all the dentist did was aim a mirror in my mouth and say I had a tiny cavity, none of which is exactly fancy dentistry degree stuff.  Fixing the cavity is dentist's work, but that entire visit could have been handled by that same dental hygienist operating independently out of her own office.  In my ideal health care world insurance would be only for serious situations and prescription medicine, with everything else being cash-for-service like every other business with doctors only providing care that requires a medical degree.  Of course, people going to nurses and physician assistants for care would require a system where people don't immediately demand a top-end professional just to be told that yes, they are suffering from arthritis in their knee.
17:37:02   Quanto: I want to have sexual intercourse with every space elf in existence
17:37:11   SpardaSon21: even the males?
17:37:22   Quanto: its not gay if its an elf

[21:51] <@Droid803> I now realize
[21:51] <@Droid803> this will be SLIIIIIGHTLY awkward
[21:51] <@Droid803> as this rich psychic girl will now be tsundere for a loli.
[21:51] <@Droid803> OH WELLL.

See what you're missing in #WoD and #Fsquest?

[07:57:32] <Caiaphas> inspired by HerraTohtori i built a supermaneuverable plane in ksp
[07:57:43] <Caiaphas> i just killed my pilots with a high-g maneuver
[07:58:19] <Caiaphas> apparently people can't take 20 gees for 5 continuous seconds
[08:00:11] <Caiaphas> the plane however performed admirably, and only crashed because it no longer had any guidance systems

 

Offline The E

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Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
Quote
n my ideal health care world insurance would be only for serious situations and prescription medicine, with everything else being cash-for-service like every other business with doctors only providing care that requires a medical degree.  Of course, people going to nurses and physician assistants for care would require a system where people don't immediately demand a top-end professional just to be told that yes, they are suffering from arthritis in their knee.

You may want to read this, sparda: http://www.rhrealitycheck.org/article/2012/07/12/how-i-lost-my-fear-universal-health-care

The bottom line is, the fact that in countries with universal health care, people can afford to go to Doctors even for stuff that may not seem like it needs a real doctor to look at helps to make the entire population healthier, since it enables early diagnosis of conditions that may turn into something more serious later on.

As for bailouts etc, please provide indicators that a "conservative" government would not have done the exact same thing.
If I'm just aching this can't go on
I came from chasing dreams to feel alone
There must be changes, miss to feel strong
I really need lifе to touch me
--Evergrey, Where August Mourns

 

Offline z64555

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Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
I don't think I am even going to bother going to the poles.  As you said, the outcome is pretty much decided already, and with all the cash in politics I refuse to recognize this as genuine democracy.

Kudos to those who find the fallacy with this statement. :P

1)  Going or not going to a wooden or metal rod (or even a collection of such rods) does not have anything to do with voting.

2)  Correcting for the incorrectly-chosen word, a population that is disenfranchised, whether voluntarily, forcibly, or legislatively (see new state-level voter ID laws) decreases the legitimacy of democracy.

3)  The post feigns agreement with the opening post of the thread, while actually discussing a totally different topic (campaign finance versus bone-headed political strategy).

4)  The post took the opening post's hyperbole about not needing to cast ballots as literal.  Elections are still decided by how the ballots are cast.  Results may correlate to campaign spending, but it is not the spending itself that determines the outcome.

5)  The post actually ignores something implicit about the opening post, that being that Presidential elections in the United States are run on a state-by-state basis, and so if he is in a swing state (or a swing district of Nebraska or Maine), his vote has much greater potential than someone in a state, where the candidates are separated by a wide margin.

6)  Very few ballots will have only the Presidential candidates on them.  All will also have House members running for re-election, and many will have Senators running for re-election.  There may also be local and state offices up for grabs by candidates, who contrary to the poster's implication about campaign financing, are hardly swimming in money and media coverage, despite their offices often having the most power to immediately and practically affect your daily life.

I have a feeling that you're referring to #2, but do I get a prize for the double-hattrick?

You, sir, win 2 internets.  :yes:

Last time I voted at the voting polls, they gave me one of two cards: A card that had all of the Republican nominees, and a card that had all of the Democratic nominees (local, state, and federal). I asked the voting poll administrators if I could get both cards so I could vote for different candidates (for a corresponding different seat), and they said no. I don't like this.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2012, 02:27:30 pm by z64555 »
Secure the Source, Contain the Code, Protect the Project
chief1983

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funtapaz: Hunchon University biologists prove mankind is evolving to new, higher form of life, known as Homopithecus Juche.
z64555: s/J/Do
BotenAlfred: <funtapaz> Hunchon University biologists prove mankind is evolving to new, higher form of life, known as Homopithecus Douche.

 
Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
On the other hand, stuff like the bailouts, TARP, and the crap-ton of stimulus spending...

I just want to have a pause here.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was the big stimulus package, passed by the Obama administration, about a month after his inauguration, with a pricetag of $787 billion.

Prior to that, there was the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, which was essentially a pre-bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and came with a $152 billion pricetag.  Later that year, there was the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008, which came with a $300 billion pricetag and placed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae under government management.  Still in 2008, there was the Trouble Asset Relief Program, which was a blanket authorization for the executive branch to spend up to $700 billion in bailing out troubled businesses, and this was the source of funding for the bank and auto bailouts.  These were all three signed into law, without any threat of veto, by President Bush.

Funny factoid:  The Obama administration would later sign into law the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act, which reduced the TARP authorization from its original $700 billion to $475 billion.

If we're just totting up spending figures for bailouts and stimulus, that means that the conservative Bush administration authorized $1.15 trillion in such spending, while Obama racked up $787 billion, less $225 billion for what he deauthorized from TARP, leaving $562 billion.

Of course, Romney was in no place to vote or have any influence on the signing of these bailout/stimulus packages (and rhetoric is easy, when you aren't actually making policy), but Paul Ryan was.  Where's he stand?

Economic Stimulus Act of 2008:  Yea
Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008:  No
Troubled Asset Relief Program:  Yea (as amended by Senate)
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act:  No
Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act:  No

Make of that what you will.

Opposing the bailouts also begs the question about whether or not you think the nation's economy would be better off, had the automotive industry and banking sector been allowed to collapse.  What would have been gained by allowing these truly massive businesses to fail, instead of injecting them with capital and restoring regulations (particularly with the banks), previously dismantled, necessary to prevent such catastrophic failure from recurring?

I'll add these questions to the other two that you didn't address, quoted below, for convenient reference:

Quote
To the point of the thread, was it the choice of Paul Ryan as Romney's VP candidate that made you make that decision, or had you already made your mind up to vote for Romney, regardless?  In either case, do you think that Paul Ryan was a sound choice, given other possible running mates, who could have given Romney an edge in key swing states and given that some of Paul Ryan's stated positions will turn off, not just voters in some of those states, but entire voting blocks, across the nation?



Moving on...

Quote
Various states all had heavy coverage mandates, which will drive up the cost of insurance since companies will charge for whatever they're covering.

I'm going to have to ask you to be more specific, when you say, "various states."  The only health insurance mandates that I've found in US history include Romney's healthcare bill for Massachusetts and a federal law dating back to 1798, when the Adams administration mandated that owners of US-flagged merchant vessels provide a form of proto-health insurance for their sailors.  Now, you can't say much of anything about the 1798 mandate's effect on health insurance premiums, since health insurance wasn't a thing in 1798.  I'd be interested if that leaves you with more examples than just Massachusetts, or if you want to cite examples of other countries with universal healthcare systems and longer life expectancies.



Quote
You, sir, win 2 internets.

I will accept my two internets in the form of DARPA Net and Ted Stevens' series of tubes.

 
Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
So, Ryan voted against three out of five programs.  That's above-par for Washington which typically spends like drunken heiresses.

As to that coverage mandate, I was referring to states that mandate that insurance providers cover certain medical expenses rather than insurance companies being allowed to offer to cover what they want to cover.

I'm not fond of Obama so I was already going to vote for Romney, but I really wouldn't have liked it.  I'm sure some of the hardcore Bible Belters would have just stayed home if Romney had a moderate VP, so Ryan was probably a calculated choice by Romney to get more conservatives on board with his campaign.  Its worth noting that Ronald Reagan ran conservative campaigns both times and he won 44 states the first election and 49 the second.  Granted, the first time was against Jimmy Carter so he was pretty much a shoo-in, but winning 49 states the second time around is a damn fine showing.
17:37:02   Quanto: I want to have sexual intercourse with every space elf in existence
17:37:11   SpardaSon21: even the males?
17:37:22   Quanto: its not gay if its an elf

[21:51] <@Droid803> I now realize
[21:51] <@Droid803> this will be SLIIIIIGHTLY awkward
[21:51] <@Droid803> as this rich psychic girl will now be tsundere for a loli.
[21:51] <@Droid803> OH WELLL.

See what you're missing in #WoD and #Fsquest?

[07:57:32] <Caiaphas> inspired by HerraTohtori i built a supermaneuverable plane in ksp
[07:57:43] <Caiaphas> i just killed my pilots with a high-g maneuver
[07:58:19] <Caiaphas> apparently people can't take 20 gees for 5 continuous seconds
[08:00:11] <Caiaphas> the plane however performed admirably, and only crashed because it no longer had any guidance systems

 

Offline Beskargam

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Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
I feel like the gist of BlueFlames post just got ignored . . . then followed by a "well my information wasn't right, but i didnt like Obama anyway so I wasnt going to vote for him"...

also where did Ronald Reagan come from? that popped outa nowhere.

I would like to see a complete overhaul of our tax code, campaign finance reform, and more infrastructure development. don't think any of that is going to happen. Anyway I just can't see romeny being good for me/middle class. I also don't think he's worked a day of hard work in his life. too much handed to him. and I'm wondering if overhaul of social security is a bad idea, I don't want to see it scrapped mind you, just it's worth taking a look at to see if it could be done better.

 
Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
I feel like the gist of BlueFlames post just got ignored . . . then followed by a "well my information wasn't right, but i didnt like Obama anyway so I wasnt going to vote for him"...

also where did Ronald Reagan come from? that popped outa nowhere.
To the point of the thread, was it the choice of Paul Ryan as Romney's VP candidate that made you make that decision, or had you already made your mind up to vote for Romney, regardless?  In either case, do you think that Paul Ryan was a sound choice, given other possible running mates, who could have given Romney an edge in key swing states and given that some of Paul Ryan's stated positions will turn off, not just voters in some of those states, but entire voting blocks, across the nation?
Let's start here.  I had already decided to vote for Romney, so Paul Ryan wasn't a reason.  Yes, Paul Ryan was a good choice since he's going to attract conservative voters.  I think that some of the voters that Ryan might turn off would probably just vote for Obama anyways.  I included Reagan as proof that a conservative candidate could win elections, which is what Paul Ryan might let Romney campaign as.

As to the part about the failures and the economy: GM would have gone under, and it would restructure, and maybe it would have come out better.  As to the banking system, the bailout didn't correct the primary issue that bankers make a ton of risky deals that risk a repeat, and if some had gone under other firms would have been a lot more cautious.
17:37:02   Quanto: I want to have sexual intercourse with every space elf in existence
17:37:11   SpardaSon21: even the males?
17:37:22   Quanto: its not gay if its an elf

[21:51] <@Droid803> I now realize
[21:51] <@Droid803> this will be SLIIIIIGHTLY awkward
[21:51] <@Droid803> as this rich psychic girl will now be tsundere for a loli.
[21:51] <@Droid803> OH WELLL.

See what you're missing in #WoD and #Fsquest?

[07:57:32] <Caiaphas> inspired by HerraTohtori i built a supermaneuverable plane in ksp
[07:57:43] <Caiaphas> i just killed my pilots with a high-g maneuver
[07:58:19] <Caiaphas> apparently people can't take 20 gees for 5 continuous seconds
[08:00:11] <Caiaphas> the plane however performed admirably, and only crashed because it no longer had any guidance systems

 

Offline BrotherBryon

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Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
I'm no longer a conservative, which automatically gets me labled a bleeding heart liberal by friends and family. Got to love south west Virginia with it's no room for moderates you are either with us or the devil mentality.
Holy Crap. SHIVANS! Tours

  

Offline Aardwolf

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Re: I'm callin' it. (2012 Electoral Map)
Bailouts: I agree in principle that "too big to fail" is a silly idea, but if you're going to complain about the money, blame Bush. He's responsible for 67% of it (citation: BlueFlames' post).

Insurance companies: Profits = income - expenses. As far as I'm aware, they aren't in the negative. Note, employee salaries is not somehow exempted from being counted as an expense; if their income decreases a tiny bit, it's no excuse to lay off employees.

Deficit spending in general: Would work better if Obama could raise taxes on the rich (like a "hoarding tax", you only lose the money you if you don't spend it)... but no tax increases are going to get past the Republican-controlled House.