[Luis Dias]

Fallout from tactical nukes is less of an issue than most people imagine. A small thermonuclear warhead like B61 shouldn't produce that much fallout if dropped in right weather conditions.

I imagine NK's nukes aren't exactly thermonuclear. They are fission nukes.

The bigger issue is the effect a nuke would have on the world stage. North Korea's ally China has a large nuclear arsenal, and if you want to nuke the former you better make damn sure the latter (and all the other nuclear states) fully support it. The problem is this would require quite a large amount of preplanning, allowing China to warn North Korea or in the worst case scenario even nuke the USA (unlikely, but who knows).

The scenario where the US nukes NK is silly, IMHO. There's no need for that. Conventional high tech weaponry from the US military would destroy their illusions fairly quickly.

As I see it, the US nuking NK would be completely counter-productive, regardless of the latter using nukes or not. By not using them you would show the world that even the States won't use nukes in such a dire straights, and thus stopping any desires from random nations to nuclearize themselves. You'd show that you can solve a problem without nukes. You'd also not start a very big geopolitical panic against the US. Ýou'd also allow yourself to raze NK's army without radiating their country. The nukes themselves are also completely useless against NK, since the leaders of it clearly have no regards for their own population's well being ("ah, they razed Pyongyang, who cares, less mouths to not feed ahahahah!").

[Gloriano]

Seems like North korea don't like money

http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-calls-for-total-evacuation-and-suspension-of-kaesong-industrial-zone-2013-4?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29

[FireSpawn]

So is this an indicator that the NK's Overlords Overseers Idiots leadership is seriously considering attacking?

[MP-Ryan]

As I see it, the US nuking NK would be completely counter-productive, regardless of the latter using nukes or not. By not using them you would show the world that even the States won't use nukes in such a dire straights, and thus stopping any desires from random nations to nuclearize themselves. You'd show that you can solve a problem without nukes. You'd also not start a very big geopolitical panic against the US. Ýou'd also allow yourself to raze NK's army without radiating their country. The nukes themselves are also completely useless against NK, since the leaders of it clearly have no regards for their own population's well being ("ah, they razed Pyongyang, who cares, less mouths to not feed ahahahah!").

Indeed.  The probability of nuclear weapons being operationally-used by anyone on the Korean peninsula is exceedingly low, and virtually non-existent by anyone other than North Korea.

Given the arsenals of the United States, South Korea, China, Japan, Russia, etc, North Korea could be leveled in short order by conventional weapons alone - and probably would be.  It's one scenario where you could probably see all the veto-holding members of the UN Security Council committing forces immediately, because nobody wants to give NK the chance to set off one nuclear weapon, nevermind more.

Again, the primary threat in all of this is artillery raining down on Seoul.  That - unfortunately - is really not that far outside the realm of reasonable possibility.

[MP-Ryan]

So is this an indicator that the NK's Overlords Overseers Idiots leadership is seriously considering attacking?

No.  It's more foot-stamping and temper tantrum, at the moment.  If there's one thing that should be abundantly clear to any observer, it's that the Kim regime doesn't really care about the well-being of ordinary North Koreans.  If they were about to launch pre-emptive attacks, they would not be announcing it by evacuating civilian areas.

Frightening as the events in the Koreas right now are, we haven't seen resurgence of MAD-era-type-thinking and game theory along these lines since the collapse of the Soviet Union.  As a purely academic exercise, it's quite fascinating to watch - and then you remember that the consequences of what happens there have the potential to affect hundreds of millions of lives.

[Rodo]

If they attack, then what will happen?

Will the UN start military actions? or China, US maybe?

[MP-Ryan]

If they attack, then what will happen?

Will the UN start military actions? or China, US maybe?

Early first response would come from South Korea and the American forces stationed in the region, targeting NK's ability to fire upon South Korea and implement denial of territory strikes on the DMZ.  Japan would probably be pulled into the fray quickly.  China is unlikely the immediately begin military action and more likely the continue to pressure NK to smarten up.  What happens militarily from there largely depends on what NK does - if it reflects past patterns, they would stick to a single incident.  Should they ramp up and attempt to cross the border or use a full-scale artillery barrage and missile strikes on South Korea, it's really anyone's guess how things would play out initially.  The US has a great deal invested in the defence of South Korea.

Diplomatically, you can expect a UN Security Council resolution calling for the cessation of hostilities immediately, with enforcement by the US and most likely NATO (because we all like to get involved in everything, after all).  This scenario is quite interesting, because its one of few where you could actually see Russian and Chinese cooperation with NATO forces to swiftly end hostilities, and China might actually be pissed off enough right now to deploy forces into North Korea to end it quickly.

As NGTM-1R wrote earlier, the very last thing China wants is a unified, capitalist, progressive Korea with strong ties to the West right on its borders.  It is in their best interest to see any conflict resolved as quickly as possible with as little change to national borders as possible.

[Luis Dias]

I'm pretty sure Kim boy is getting calls from China HQ 24/7 reminding him how his ****ty fat ass could get spanked hard if he doesn't behave.

[MP-Ryan]

I'm pretty sure Kim boy is getting calls from China HQ 24/7 reminding him how his ****ty fat ass could get spanked hard if he doesn't behave.

The problem is that North Korean culture has this illusion that it is self-reliant.  Kim doesn't listen to China nearly as much as he should.  The Chinese government is actually worried about NK this time around.

[karajorma]

The Chinese public certainly have little respect for Fatty Kim as they call him.

[Luis Dias]

@MP, while your posts regarding all of this are dead on and I consider you a very very rational and intelligent poster, I'l also share with you the obvious fact that you (and me) have no zilch of an idea of what goes on on Kim's head. It is still possible he listens to them *very well*, but sees no alternative but threading this line.


e: http://www.theverge.com/2013/4/8/4190656/what-north-koreas-threats-seem-like-to-a-south-korean-college-student

"What North Koreas threats seem like to a South Korean college student"

[MP-Ryan]

I was referring to some rumblings among former diplomats speaking to their counterparts in China, who have basically been saying "they just don't listen, we don't know what to do about these guys."

There've been a few comments along these lines in some pieces carried by AP and Reuters, but I'll be damned if I can now find the one I was looking for in particular to show you.  However, the public statements by China's officials have been less than friendly to NK.

[Mikes]

One of our comedians over here put it best:

"I really understand him, I was the same at that age: All insecure and angsty and always playing with my... rocket"

[deathfun]

I wouldn't actually mind seeing war break out
Seeing how a modern war would carry out would certainly be interesting to see. All this Guerrilla stuff we've been dealing with for the past decade is just boring

[FireSpawn]

I wouldn't actually mind seeing war break out
Seeing how a modern war would carry out would certainly be interesting to see. All this Guerrilla stuff we've been dealing with for the past decade is just boring

Dude, not cool. 

Edit:

http://qkme.me/3ts12e

[Lorric]

I wouldn't actually mind seeing war break out
Seeing how a modern war would carry out would certainly be interesting to see. All this Guerrilla stuff we've been dealing with for the past decade is just boring

You are living up to your name.

I thought you were better than this.

[Gloriano]

I wouldn't actually mind seeing war break out
Seeing how a modern war would carry out would certainly be interesting to see. All this Guerrilla stuff we've been dealing with for the past decade is just boring

 A war isn't pretty to watch and war Between N-korea-S-korea, would mean that millions of people could die not just soldiers but innocent people, entire families would be killed, millions would lose homes economy would be ruins.

[Lorric]

This reminds me of a song, Vicarious by Tool. You can find it easily enough on Youtube, but the lyrics are what I'm talking about, which I'll post here:

"Eye on the TV
'cause tragedy thrills me
Whatever flavour
It happens to be like;
Killed by the husband
Drowned by the ocean
Shot by his own son
She used the poison in his tea
And kissed him goodbye
That's my kind of story
It's no fun 'til someone dies

Don't look at me like
I am a monster
Frown out your one face
But with the other
Stare like a junkie
Into the TV
Stare like a zombie
While the mother
Holds her child
Watches him die
Hands to the sky crying
Why, oh why?
'cause I need to watch things die
From a distance

Vicariously I, live while the whole world dies
You all need it too, don't lie

Why can't we just admit it?
Why can't we just admit it?

We won't give pause until the blood is flowing
Neither the brave nor bold
The writers of stories sold
We won't give pause until the blood is flowing

I need to watch things die
From a good safe distance

Vicariously I, live while the whole world dies
You all feel the same so
Why can't we just admit it?

Blood like rain come down
Drawn on grave and ground

Part vampire
Part warrior
Carnivore and voyeur
Stare at the transmittal
Sing to the death rattle

La, la, la, la, la, la, la-lie

Credulous at best, your desire to believe in angels in the hearts of men.
Pull your head on out your hippy haze and give a listen.
Shouldn't have to say it all again.
The universe is hostile. so Impersonal. devour to survive.
So it is. So it's always been.

We all feed on tragedy
It's like blood to a vampire

Vicariously I, live while the whole world dies
Much better you than I"

[MP-Ryan]

Lay off deathfun.  He's legitimately pointing out (perhaps tactlessly) that from historical and educational perspectives, war on the Korean peninsula would be quite a departure from the military conflicts of the last 40 or so years and therefore fascinating to observe.

Tragic for all concerned, no doubt, but on a purely intellectual level, fascinating.  I doubt he actually means that he wants to see war break out, but he can correct me if I'm wrong.

[General Battuta]

It would be a brief and ultimately one-sided exercise in the application of 'cool' military tactics and maneuvers, followed by a prolonged and not at all photogenic humanitarian crisis of enormous proportions.