Author Topic: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria  (Read 4881 times)

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Offline Bobboau

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Offline karajorma

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
The whole thing is a mess.

Hezbollah (Obviously not nice people) have thrown in with Assad (Obviously not a nice person) to fight against the Al Qaeda (obviously not nice people)-linked rebels (Probably not nice people but maybe some of them just want Assad's boot off their neck).
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Offline Al-Rik

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-syria-fighting-hezbollah-20130526,0,7835258.story

could this perhaps hurt Hezbollah?

Why should this hurt Hezbollah ?
By fighting against the "Zionist & American Conspiracy" they justify their existence and they attract new supporters and members.
Peace in Middle East would hurt them more...

 

Offline Dragon

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
I think that Syrian rebels can cause problems for Hezbollah, because they're using similar tactics as them. So, Hezbollah might end up getting a taste of it's own medicine. Though I don't think this will change anything, quite the opposite, in fact. The rebels will be facing a greater enemy force and might end up suffering too many loses, thus allowing Assad to maintain status quo. The only thing we know for sure is that civilians will be the ones to suffer the most, as always in this kind of conflict.

 
Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
The whole thing is a mess.

Hezbollah (Obviously not nice people) have thrown in with Assad (Obviously not a nice person) to fight against the Al Qaeda (obviously not nice people)-linked rebels (Probably not nice people but maybe some of them just want Assad's boot off their neck).

You forgot the U.S., Russia and E.U. with conflicting goals, no concern who they are allying with and a desire  to use the conflict to score domestic political points.  :nono:

Even if Assad loses, Hezbollah won't lose their base of power in Lebanon, or Iran's support. And if their direct support for the regime draws the western/Israeli troops in, they win big.
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Offline Dragon

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
Welcome to international politics. :)

 

Offline Mongoose

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
The whole thing is a mess.

Hezbollah (Obviously not nice people) have thrown in with Assad (Obviously not a nice person) to fight against the Al Qaeda (obviously not nice people)-linked rebels (Probably not nice people but maybe some of them just want Assad's boot off their neck).
Can we hope that all the not-nice people wind up pounding each other to bits in the process?

 
Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
Oh, they'll do that plenty.  Unfortunately, a lot of possibly-nice people will get pounded as well.
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Offline Rodo

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
Oh, they'll do that plenty.  Unfortunately, a lot of possibly-nice people will get pounded as well.

What? they always get pounded. They are at the lowest place in the food chain.
I'd say we, but I don't want to sound ... confident? on my niceness maybe.
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Offline Bobboau

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
Why should this hurt Hezbollah ?
By fighting against the "Zionist & American Conspiracy" they justify their existence and they attract new supporters and members.
Peace in Middle East would hurt them more...

is that how the rebels look to the mideast? I assumed that as part of the arab spring, people everywhere liked them.
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Offline 666maslo666

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
This conflict has such an equal distribution of force.. it could go on for many years.
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Offline Nakura

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
Both sides are terrible, we should stay out of this conflict.

Looks like it's too late for the Euros though...

 

Offline Sarafan

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
Let's add some fun to this thread, shall we?

Israel warns Moscow that it will attack shipments of Russian weapons to Syria:

http://news.yahoo.com/israel-warns-russia-against-giving-syria-missiles-132538404.html

Syria arms embargo lifted: Britain and France force EU to relax ban on supplying weapons to rebels:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/syria-arms-embargo-lifted-britain-and-france-force-eu-to-relax-ban-on-supplying-weapons-to-rebels-8633597.html

Iran Extends $4-Bln Credit to Syria:

http://en.ria.ru/world/20130528/181380579.html

WW3 here we come!

 

Offline Black Wolf

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
As much as I hate the comparison, there are similarities here to the WW1 buildup, in that a relatively minor squabble (and a civil war to boot) in a geographically sensitive area has the potential to draw in much greater powers (In this case, Israel and Iran, Russia and the US) as a result of alliances and local interests. Far and away the most dangerous development (IMO) is the Russia/Israel problem if both sides follow through on their threats/promises (The Russians to deliver the anti-aircraft missiles, the Israelis to stop them - shades of the Cuban missile crisis there, if on a smaller scale).

There are, of course, massive, massive differences between the world of today and the world in 1914 (or the world in October 62 for that matter), global interconnectedness being the big one, nukes being number two and a decreased element of societal militarization being number three. So I doubt that this could start anything like a 20th century style world war. But... the American position of treating Israel like a 51st state (while having no control over what they do) puts them in an incredibly uncomfortable position if anything serious starts to go down, especially in the event of a serious Russia/Israel row.

Iran is... well, not irrelevant, but not so much of a concern. They're betting 4 billion (or, realistically, a fraction of that) on Assad being able to cling to power. If he does, then they can claim to be a major factor in keeping him there, and probably keep large elements of Syria's elite very happy as well (depending on what exactly "the import of consumer goods" implies), while the US is betting that the rebels will win, and thus supplying them non lethal aid, basically for the same reason. That's not a major problem (unless you happen to be a Syrian civilian, but who cares about them in international gamesmanship) until one side or the other starts openly supplying weapons, at which point things start to change - psychologically if not practically.

Iran will matter much, much more is the Assad regime does fall - they perfected the art of covertly assisting and (probably) financing Shia militias to promote their own particular ideologies in Iraq. That's what they know, and that's bound to be their back-up plan in case the FSA wins, and get taken over by Sunni islamists (which seems to happen a lot in these Arab revolutions). They'll be a massive pain in the arse for whoever inherits Syria one way or the other, but in the buildup... keep an eye on them, but it'll be the Israelis, the Russians, Hezbollah and, of course, the Americans who're driving things if this does blow right up.
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Offline karajorma

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
As much as I hate the comparison, there are similarities here to the WW1 buildup, in that a relatively minor squabble (and a civil war to boot) in a geographically sensitive area has the potential to draw in much greater powers (In this case, Israel and Iran, Russia and the US) as a result of alliances and local interests. Far and away the most dangerous development (IMO) is the Russia/Israel problem if both sides follow through on their threats/promises (The Russians to deliver the anti-aircraft missiles, the Israelis to stop them - shades of the Cuban missile crisis there, if on a smaller scale).

I must admit that part of me is fascinated to see what will happen when Israel can't get away with their usual tactic of sabre-rattling and hinting that they have nukes.
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Offline NGTM-1R

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
Why should this hurt Hezbollah ?

Hezbollah's name was made and its existence staked on being the enemy of Israel, and to a lesser extent the protector of Lebanon. They stand to lose a great deal of their broad-based support in that country if they decide to become Shi'a revolutionary group number five-seventy-nine.
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Offline karajorma

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
Given how secularist he was, I wonder what Assad Senior would have made of this.
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Offline Black Wolf

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
I must admit that part of me is fascinated to see what will happen when Israel can't get away with their usual tactic of sabre-rattling and hinting that they have nukes.

The problem is their other usual tactic - comprehensive military victories against significantly weaker opponents (Palestine and Lebanon in recent years) - which keeps that sabre rattling relevant - just isn't going to happen against the Russians. Maybe 10 years ago it would have, but this is a thoroughly Putinized Russia, with a military that, while not at peak soviet standards, also isn't the ridiculously underfunded joke that it was in the late 90s, and a strong desire to get back at least some degree of the worldwide relevance of the Soviet Union.

The bright side is that at least some senior Israelis seem to understand that:

Quote
"We are unhappy with the prospect of these very serious weapons arriving in Syria but we cannot stop Russia delivering them to the Middle East. We would not strike a Russian target – our egos are big but they're not that big," one senior Israeli diplomat told the Guardian on condition of anonymity.

The Israeli military will not hesitate, however, to take any steps necessary to prevent the transfer of this sophisticated Russian anti-aircraft technology to Hezbollah militants or other hostile groups.

"I don't know how upset the Russians would be if, at some point between payment and the installation of this technology in Damascus by Russian experts, something was done to damage the weaponry. As long as no Russians were hurt and they got paid, I don't think they would care," the diplomat added.


That, of course, is a pretty important question, given the significance of Syria in Russian foreign affairs. They have a vested interest in keeping Assad in power, so in turn they have a vested interest in keeping the west from enforcing a Libya style no-fly-zone, which is what these weapons are really all about.

It's a very delicate, potentially very nasty situation.
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Offline Mars

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
What the hell is going on there?
 BBC
Quote
The military chief of the main umbrella group of Syrian rebels, the Free Syrian Army, has accused Hezbollah fighters of "invading" Syria in a BBC interview.

Gen Selim Idriss claimed that more than 7,000 fighters of the Lebanese Shia movement were taking part in attacks on the rebel-held town of Qusair.

The French foreign minister has estimated the number at 3,000-4,000.

The US State Department has demanded that Hezbollah withdraw its fighters from Syria immediately.

A spokeswoman Jen Psaki said their presence was an "extremely dangerous" escalation.

The statements follow a meeting of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, which condemned government attacks on Qusair and the involvement of foreign fighters.
Also
Quote
But the statement is a sign of growing concern in the US that the conflict in Syria is morphing into a complex regional war by proxy.

 

Offline Al-Rik

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Re: Hezbollah leader affirms support for Assad in Syria
Given how secularist he was, I wonder what Assad Senior would have made of this.

The same he has made with Hama ?