We do not have a homogenous record of tropical cyclones, let alone tornadoes, due to changes in observational capabilities.
Models predict an increase in the average intensity of cyclones, but whether such a trend is apparent in the data is
not agreed upon.For tornadoes such trends are even less clear and to my knowledge there is not a very strong theoretical/modelling framework for how they will be affected by a warming world, either.
This however does not hold true for other weather variables, such as temperatures, droughts, and heavy precipitation events. There is wide consensus that these are changing in frequency/intensity due to global warming and we even have a good handle on the underlying mechanisms. The
SREX report that your link mentions discusses these:
It is very likely that there has been an overall decrease in the number of cold days and nights, and an overall increase in the number of warm days and nights, at the global scale, that is, for most land areas with sufficient data. It is likely that these changes have also occurred at the continental scale in North America, Europe, and Australia. There is medium confidence in a warming trend in daily temperature extremes in much of Asia. Confidence in observed trends in daily temperature extremes in Africa and South America generally varies from low to medium depending on the region. In many (but not all) regions over the globe with sufficient data, there is medium confidence that the length or number of warm spells or heat waves as increased.
There have been statistically significant trends in the number of heavy precipitation events in some regions. It is likely that more of these regions have experienced increases than decreases, although there are strong regional and subregional variations in these trends.
There is low confidence in any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (i.e. intensity, frequency, duration), after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.
It is likely that there has been a poleward shift in the main Northern and Southern Hemisphere extratropical storm tracks.
There is low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems.
There is medium confidence that some regions of the world have experience more intense and longer droughts, in particular in southern Europe and West Africa, but in some regions droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter, for example, in central North America and northwestern Australia.
Once again I can go over specific journal articles on each of these topics with you, but I'm wondering if there's any point if you are predisposed to pathologically dismissing it. It's extremely fascinating to me that you did so to a peer-reviewed article in
Nature, instead linking to a "Bull**** Button" blog which cites an IPCC synthesis report that says pretty much exactly what I and Stefan were saying to begin with. Furthermore it seems like it's attacking a wholly different argument entirely -- that trends in
disaster losses are purely due to climate change, which is an argument that nobody here is making. So quite frankly I have no idea what you're calling bull**** on.
Did you take the time to read my first link?
