[Mr. Vega]

I cannot and will not attempt to predict what will happen to Europe and America. We could keep gutting our economies and our basic social services, which could produce similar results to what happened to Russia. Or maybe not. Europe is perfectly capable of recovery the moment the EU's periphery nations ditch the euro and get back control of their fiscal policy. Americans could get sick of deficit hysteria and stop austerity by threatening the careers of politicians who support it. Anything can happen. I know the pessimists and cynics are going to remind me that unsustainable systems can last a lot longer than I might think, and that's true, but what's also true is that when they do finally break down, they do so suddenly and without warning.

As the ultimate example of this: Noone in America thought slavery was going anywhere in 1855.

[Mika]

Congratulations for finding out one of the most interesting articles in this forum for a long time, and additionally thanks for Dragon for writing the point of view from the East-West crossover zone.

I believe that at least part of the cause is far more in the history than a lot of people think of. Soviet Union wasn't much different for a normal person compared to the time of Czars and their policing operations (Soviet Union was a bit more systematic) where the law was the local officer, despite what the the book of laws said. I don't think Russia has ever had a similar police system than there is in the West, as the individual rights are not strictly enforced. Or are enforced, but at random and occasionally only by bribes. Or that they are only enforced efficiently in some places, while Mafia still rules in most of the area. And there's no easy way to investigate the officers actions as a counter-balance. I suppose there is a reason for that, though.

All this will lead to a feeling of helplessness, and actually it is not only a feeling, but acknowledging the terrible truth of the situation: there's nothing that you can do to make your life better without the risk of somebody coming and taking it away from you. This means a failure of society in the basic level in the Western terms. I cannot make a judgment how likely that would be in real life (our export truckers' experience says it's quite likely), but I can believe that it is very efficient in thwarting a lot of economical activity from the people. Now that being said, it's not like the Russians wouldn't have their share of crazy projects, but they are more about having fun than creating commercial value, and principally there's nothing wrong with that.

Then again, being born in the crossover zone, I'll have to say both sides do have their good and bad sides. As Dragon mentioned, Soviets did not shy away from "equalizing" everyone despite the gender. Which makes you wonder when you hear about the current system in Germany which seems very discouraging to women returning to work after giving birth - my understanding is that they would then face increased taxes. Additionally, talking with Russians will reveal you an entirely different world, the discussion is typically much more deeper than when you're talking with Westerners in business occasions or in similar professions, though my experience is limited to highly educated people from both sides. I'd go and say that US and Germany business people that I know of have a lot more trouble expressing who they themselves are compared to Russians, but then again, that's because of my background. I'm sure they'd feel very awkward to talk about those subjects to begin with so discussion is usually kept in the safe areas like football (which is utterly boring if you ask me). So it's kind of weird, but I'd say the Russians have no trouble expressing their soul, while you get the impression that Westerners don't even have it!

Which makes it interesting, since I find it relatively easy to talk with Polish, Romanians, Chechs, Slovaks, Hungarians and so on, perhaps the cultural heritage is similar?

EDIT: And actually, a perspective from a Russian would be very interesting to hear now.

[Mr. Vega]

The issues you've mentioned have been around for a long time. The question is why did they become so acute during that ten year time span? I gave the most obvious explanation, a particularly disasterous economic upheaval, but i'd be happy to hear alternatives.

[Dragon]

I think that your assessment is correct, but doesn't cover the all the causes. The economic conditions are bad, but there's one more thing that makes it much worse: free press! Before, when things were going bad, the Party denied it. Disasters were classified, economy glossed over and Western world demonized. But now, Russians get a full view of their country falling apart, all while the West grows and builds up across the border.

For example: China is overtaking Russia with it's space program, and people know it. It's no secret that Roskosmos is a pathetic shade of Soviet space program. On the other hand, during Soviet times, they didn't even admit Americans won the "moon race", or that the race even existed! Their leadership said "That's a nice thing they did, but we're not risking people for what we can do with robots.". Those four N1s that blew up? They didn't exist as well. Soviets didn't do that well in reality (space exploration went rather well, but they had many, many failures, especially early on), but were really great in making it look like they did. I love Soviet propaganda music, despite not understanding the lyrics very well, it's jaunty, upbeat and motivating. Today, it's all gone, government propaganda isn't nearly as intense as it used to be, and an average Russian gets hit full force with not only just how bad the situation is, but also that they're (as individuals) powerless to help it.

As for the Czars, they simply didn't bother informing the peasants about the state of affairs, so this didn't appear before. Modern technology exaggerates this as well. Before, noone knew what's happening in the rest of the world in such detail as now.

Additionally, talking with Russians will reveal you an entirely different world, the discussion is typically much more deeper than when you're talking with Westerners in business occasions or in similar professions, though my experience is limited to highly educated people from both sides. I'd go and say that US and Germany business people that I know of have a lot more trouble expressing who they themselves are compared to Russians, but then again, that's because of my background. I'm sure they'd feel very awkward to talk about those subjects to begin with so discussion is usually kept in the safe areas like football (which is utterly boring if you ask me). So it's kind of weird, but I'd say the Russians have no trouble expressing their soul, while you get the impression that Westerners don't even have it!

Yes, it is a different world. Indeed, the Cold War concept of "Second World" is surprisingly close to truth. Russians think differently than westerners, the further east you go, the more alien the mindset becomes. While I haven't met too many people from the US in person, it's true that people further east have an easier time getting personal. On the other hand, I have a feeling they're somewhat least honest about their feelings and more prone to "group mentality". I don't think any of those "worlds" is fundamentally better, but there are crucial differences that many people don't realize.

[Mika]

As Dragon said, the collapse of the Soviet Union and consequently the hope from better tomorrow was effectively removed (which was partially covered in the article as well). Free markets allowed even more booze and drugs to flow in, worsening the deal. Currently, the police is barely functional and their function suffers a lot from corruption.

The Russian point of view is more that the West effectively destroyed the Soviet Union - which it did financially - and they tend to think that it's Russia which has been under attack for centuries (which is true when you think in terms of centuries). However, somehow they neglect that Russia has also been the aggressor on a lot of these occasions, causing untold damage for better part of three to five hundred centuries. The hard part for them to understand is that former Warsaw pact countries like Baltics turned their backs to Russia as soon as possible as they had a change, never considering their own role in that. It's well possible that they don't even know what it was like to be on that area.

The same goes with Finland, I hear from Russian traveling Finns that the Russians are now asking why are we walking on rank and file with the EU. The problem with Russians as far has been that their legalization and its enforcement is so random and arbitrary that it's not possible to trust or make any long term plans with them. Violating airspace with military reconnaissance aircraft thrice a month isn't either a way to build any sort of trust with the neighbors, and that's been going on in the Gulf of Finland for ages. But at least we tried to explain this to them, tried to improve the conditions in the cities close to Finnish border, improve their waste treatment facilities in St. Petersburg, but to no avail, and it seems that our choice next is going to be joining to NATO. But this is side-tracking.

So the answer to your question is quite multi-dimensional, but I think that the crashing economy is a symptom of a dysfunctional society, which then encourages people to drink more to just get over it. Most of the deaths the original article lists are probably still related to alcohol or shoddy worksmanship, or just general carelessness. I sure hope Russia can get on its feet and reverse the dying trend, but any progress is slow on such vast country. The most worrying part is that I don't think this is anyhow new in the Russian history. Part of Putin's fame is actually coming from the fact that people are thinking that with him in the helm the future might be brighter.

[Dragon]

I think that it's not about the society being dysfunctional per se, but rather unsuited to the current situation. There's still a lot of communist-era mentality even in Poland, let alone Russia. The very mentality that now doesn't work, or at least not well. Decline of Russian economy and society are linked, but I think that it's the economy that went first. In Russia, the default way of coping with hard times (or celebrating good times, for that matter) is to get drunk, preferably with friends. Free market only introduced more varieties of drugs, if that (Russian Mafia had them covered back in Soviet times, too). Generally, it's not even an issue with how much they drink, but how they drink. Countries listed in the article as having more alcohol consumption per capita have a different way of drinking. They usually drink beer (Czechs and Hungarians are particularly famous for that) and often have it with their meals, much like French or Italians drink wine. Even "social drinking" of beer, also prevalent, isn't too bad, as it has a low alcohol content, meaning alcohol intake tends to be more spread-out. Russians, on the other hand, "socially drink" vodka and other high-proof alcohols. Often to deliberately get sloshed, if things are bad. This often ends in alcohol poisoning, drunken stupidity (especially since in Russia, being drunk is often not considered a big deal) and other such things.

The problem with the Russians is that, just like the West often can't understand the way Russians think, Russians rarely understand Westerners. Doing the same, but in a Russian way often results in a disaster, and it's, as you said, hard to understands why other "Slavic" countries would throw in their lot with the West, as well as why it works out for them so well. Baltic states had a lot of contact with Germany (dating back to medieval Hansa) Sweden and Denmark via the sea, and as such, understand the West a lot better than Russians do.

[Mongoose]

The economic conditions are bad, but there's one more thing that makes it much worse: free press!

Eeehhh, I'm not so sure it's all that "free" these days, though almost certainly better than it was during Soviet times.  Putin has a pretty heavy stranglehold on the national press, and even outside information seems to get viewed through a particularly heavy filter by many average citizens.  There's a Russian guy who popped up on another forum I frequent, and he's pretty much the living embodiment of toeing the party line.  "The Ukrainian government are Nazis, and we need to protect Russians!"  It's either hilarious or frightening, depending on how you look at it.

[Phantom Hoover]

russia's free press at work

[Dragon]

This has little to do with it being free or not, but with Russians hiring idiots as journalists. It seems to be cited as an example of anti-German US propaganda, let's just say WWI had more than enough genuine examples of propaganda posters like this (though this being TFII, the style is more Cold War-like). It was part of an attempt to make a jab at the US, but "free" doesn't mean "impartial" when it comes to media (it just means you get a wider spectrum of biases. ).

The economic conditions are bad, but there's one more thing that makes it much worse: free press!

Eeehhh, I'm not so sure it's all that "free" these days, though almost certainly better than it was during Soviet times.  Putin has a pretty heavy stranglehold on the national press, and even outside information seems to get viewed through a particularly heavy filter by many average citizens.  There's a Russian guy who popped up on another forum I frequent, and he's pretty much the living embodiment of toeing the party line.  "The Ukrainian government are Nazis, and we need to protect Russians!"  It's either hilarious or frightening, depending on how you look at it.

It's still incomparably more free than during most of the Soviet Union's existence. "There is no news in "Pravda" and no truth in "Izwestia".", as the old joke goes (and this was all they had back then). While the government still filters "important" things, it no longer keeps people completely in the dark about things like economy or science. Also, they now have internet, which is notoriously difficult to screen. Either way, they know much, much more about what's happening than they used to.

[Phantom Hoover]

(though this being TFII, the style is more Cold War-like)

It absolutely is not, TF2's visual style is a riff on early 20th century commercial illustrations.

[Luis Dias]

This has little to do with it being free or not, but with Russians hiring idiots as journalists.

The clever ones are either killed or gone to other venues.

[Dovahkiin2132]

You do know that Russia has SERIOUSLY advanced since Putin became president right?And for violating airspace,Don't you think American's are doing the same . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin#mediaviewer/File:Russian_economy_since_fall_of_Soviet_Union.PNG

[The E]

And? As the article I linked to in the first post points out, there doesn't seem to be a connection between the exploding economy and the general outlook people have on life. To quote the article:

And then there is the dying. In a rare moment of what may pass for levity Eberstadt allows himself the following chapter subtitle: “Pioneering New and Modern Pathways to Poor Health and Premature Death.” Russians did not start dying early and often after the collapse of the Soviet Union. “To the contrary,” writes Eberstadt, what is happening now is “merely the latest culmination of ominous trends that have been darkly evident on Russian soil for almost half a century.” With the exception of two brief periods—when Soviet Russia was ruled by Khrushchev and again when it was run by Gorbachev—death rates have been inexorably rising. This continued to be true even during the period of unprecedented economic growth between 1999 and 2008. In this study, published in 2010, Eberstadt accurately predicts that in the coming years the depopulation trend may be moderated but argues that it will not be reversed; in 2013 Russia’s birthrate was still lower and its death rate still higher than they had been in 1991. And 1991 had not been a good year.

In other words, yes, there was an economic upturn, but it seems to have been largely irrelevant to the crisis under discussion here.

[Dovahkiin2132]

And is that a Russian or an American article?

[Phantom Hoover]

Does that somehow change what Russia's trends in birth and death rate are?

[Dovahkiin2132]

Actually it kinda does,i don't expect Americans to be as correct as Russians in recording mortality rates,especially if we take in account their hostility towards Russians and use of propaganda.

[The E]

Can you produce better statistics then? Because if you can't, calling the statements in that article incorrect because of "their hostility towards Russians and use of propaganda" is not a particularly convincing way to argue your point.

EDIT:

For the record, the statistics found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia show a more positive picture, with population growth being close to neutral again. Still, the article also states that the death rate is still much higher than in other developed countries.

[Dovahkiin2132]

13.3 births per 1000
13.1 deaths per 1000 still higher than most developed countries who have neutral or negative
though yeah 14.3 per 1000 is a bit high

[Mika]

You do know that Russia has SERIOUSLY advanced since Putin became president right?And for violating airspace,Don't you think American's are doing the same

Since I don't know to whom this is addressed, I'll only answer the airspace violations since I brought it up.

No, US or NATO has not been violating Finnish airspace. And the answer to the rest of your question is that it's likely that US is violating airspaces elsewhere, but it's not doing that with ours, and that's pretty much what matters to me. And I don't know why US doing that would justify it for anyone.

[Luis Dias]

In some Russian mindset, if it's possible somehow that the US is doing it / has done it, then it's perfectly legitimate and rightful for Russia to do as well.

I had these discussions all the time with my dad. "Oh look dad, there go the russians again doing all this sh..." "Bah, and you tellin me the US isn't doing something as well? Nato is so all over this, you are clueless, this is all americans doing all of thi" "but father, this is really Putin doing this" "And that plane that crossed the border like 20 years ago you telling me that was the Russians too?!?" "Dad... sigh".