Author Topic: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.  (Read 51561 times)

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Offline karajorma

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
Your idea that any hypothesis is automatically rendered a "mockery" because there are multiple possible explanations is, by far, the craziest thing I've ever witnessed you saying.

What makes it a mockery is claiming that your hypothesis must be true because it fits your (very limited) data even though there are quite obviously a large number of other explanations. Remember that the sad puppies haven't acted like it's merely a hypothesis, more like it's a proven theory.
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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
sidetrack: Isn't the whole point of a hypothesis that there's only one possible yes/no outcome? Otherwise it's not falsifiable.

 

Offline Goober5000

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
You're trying to have it both ways.  This is what you said before:

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Can you not see that if you have something like Sad Puppies, where a lot of books are suddenly talked about, a bunch of people will go and review those same books and therefore inflate the ratings somewhat?

Do you really expect us to believe that there was no discussion whatsoever of books under consideration for Hugo nominees until the Puppies came along?  Or that such discussion was only limited to Puppy-favored books?  If there is a bias which lifts the rankings of prospective nominees, then the bias would occur during every nomination period and for every prospective book.  All data points in the graph would be subject to the same effect.

Seriously? It appears I do have to explain it to you then. :rolleyes:

The puppies discussion of which books should get a Hugo started in January. If you are comparing this against something like a discussion on HLP over which book should get the nomination, you are completely wrong for several reasons.

Firstly, they quickly decided on a slate, a set of books they wanted to nominate. The Hugo nominations have typically been very personal. Each person votes for the books they personally enjoyed. Slate voting is very new, that's why it was effective this year. You don't get this sort of thing on HLP. We don't narrow down the conversation over which books are good here, if anything the list of good books would get longer with the thread.

Secondly, you've failed to consider that the Sad and Rabid puppies are activists. Is it really so hard to believe that a bunch of people who would spend months choosing and lobbying for a certain set of books would be more likely to read those books? And having read them would be more likely to review them on Amazon? Can you really not understand that people who think that books they like are being deliberately excluded from the publicity that a Hugo award would give them to the degree that they would form an organisation dedicated to fixing it, might also do other things to increase the readership of those books?

I'm not even claiming that it was deliberate, it may actually have been, but even organically if you tell a bunch of Sci-Fi fans to concentrate on a certain set of books, I would be very surprised if you didn't see more of them buying those books, and more of them reviewing those books. Can you really not see how that would be different to a discussion on HLP where maybe one or two people might go out and buy a heavily recommended book and where it's likely that no one would bother to review it?

You completely failed to address the point I made, which is that if there is any boost to book reviews caused by discussion of books under consideration for Hugo nominations, it is not unique to the Puppies nor is it unique to this year.

(And as a reminder, here is my originally stated argument, lest it be lost in the noise.  I note that you have not been able to rebut a single one of these points.

1. The Castalia House graph indicates that Puppies works, as measured by Amazon reviews, are more highly rated than Hugo winners of recent years.
2. Since lower-rated works of the past were not given No Award, the Puppies works do not merit No Award either.
3. Thus any voter who chose No Award for a Puppies work did not do so on the basis of merit.
4. Ergo, your your claim that "it's probable that most of the people involved don't think they were a deserving author" and also "I think it's very likely that a lot of people knew the background for the slate and did the very human thing of voting "No Award" because they felt that none of those books deserved the prize they were up for." is refuted.

You've been attacking point #1, claiming that the higher ratings for Puppies works are undeserved or illegitimate.)

Again, by focusing on the fact that Puppies are discussing the books they want to nominate, you are ignoring the fact that everybody else is also discussing the books they want to nominate.  It doesn't happen all in one place like on HLP, but it happens on the various author and sci-fi interest blogs.  And proposing or recommending slates is not new.  Look at all the award pimpage John Scalzi has done, for example.

You're using a very strange argument by saying that the Sad and Rabid Puppies are more likely to read the books and encourage others to read them also.  Isn't that what fans do?  And the Hugo awards are supposed to represent all of fandom.  More importantly, the more people read and review the books, the more accurately the Amazon ratings reflect the quality of those books.  Anyone who reads a book can post a review of it, whether Puppy or otherwise.

You're also repeatedly using the bizarre rhetorical trick of implying that I only disagree with your point because I don't understand it.  On the contrary, I understand your point perfectly.  It's just wrong.


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Let's do a thought experiment and toss out the entire Puppies contingent, which Vox Day estimates at 1015, comprised of 565 Rabids and 450 Sads.  Let's further assume that they all voted for Toni Weisskopf (which is highly unlikely as there were 166 votes for Vox Day in that category).  1216 minus 1015 is 201 which is still more than Patrick Nielsen Hayden got.  And yet she was still swamped by the 2496 votes for No Award.

That's a really stupid thought experiment though. Controversial issues get more attention than non-controversial issues. You're claiming that the numbers mean something they quite obviously don't. In the years you have claimed mean something, comparatively fewer people even cared about who won the Best Editor vote.

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Toni Weisskopf got 1,216 first-line #1 votes. Arguably the most of any editor in the history of the Hugo awards.

Sheila Gilbert got 754 first-line #1 votes. Again, second only to Toni, arguably the most of any editor in the history of the Hugo awards.

By contrast, Patrick-Nielsen Hayden won a Best Editor Hugo in 2010, with just 140 first-line #1 votes.

So since there were only 5 nominees then the total first line votes for all 5 candidates would presumably be somewhere around 1,000. Less than Toni Weisskopf got. Surely you can see that this alone means that the numbers by themselves mean nothing. Only their proportions matter.

I'm not making any value judgement about whether Toni Weisskopf is better than Patrick-Nielsen Hayden, or to what degree.  I'm saying that Toni Weisskopf enjoys strong support that cannot be explained by the Puppy contingent alone.  Consider that she received 1308 second-line votes as well.  No Award is supposed to be used if there is nobody worthy on the ballot.  That was not the case here.  2496 voters put politics over principle.


Goober's analysis is meaningless, as is your supposed evidence, because it does not have to indicate what Goober or you want it to indicate. Goober's analysis, without citing any methodology to its apportionment that would make it worthwhile in the first place (as was pointed out immediately, did you miss that?), offers up a meaningless statistic that could have to do with as much random chance, writer skill, and voter demographics as with some kind of conspiracy or clique. The fact that (according to Goober, anyways) the Hugo only goes right a small percentage of the time does not prove that the process is politicized in itself. It is suggestive, but it can also suggest other possibilities; perhaps the genre skews left itself, perhaps the Hugo voters skew left based on where it's held, perhaps they skew left for some other reason. Perhaps the right-wingers are all doing techno-thrillers or historical fiction or fantasy. Lord knows Clancy could be pretty right-wing at times.

Yeah, I did notice Joshua's reply to that.  I suspect even if Mike Glyer (not me, I remind you) explained his methodology, you still wouldn't be satisfied.  One can always rationalize away evidence that threatens one's perspective.  At least you admitted that it was suggestive.

Anyway, this may be my last word on the subject since I'll be away for the next three days.  I've pointed out two separate and totally independent metrics (Amazon reviews and statistical representation) that indicate, as the Puppies claim, that the Hugo awards do not reflect all of fandom.  I would encourage all independent observers to get their facts from the statements of the people involved, or from the numbers, not from spin-doctoring or speculation.

 

Offline The E

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
1. The Castalia House graph indicates that Puppies works, as measured by Amazon reviews, are more highly rated than Hugo winners of recent years.

Which is irrelevant to the Hugos, because the Hugos only measure the approval a given work can get at the WorldCon of that year.

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2. Since lower-rated works of the past were not given No Award, the Puppies works do not merit No Award either.

Irrelevant, as per my answer to point 1.

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3. Thus any voter who chose No Award for a Puppies work did not do so on the basis of merit.

This is an unproven assumption. Because voters who have read all works and decided that none of them deserve the award can and do exist.
Not that there isn't a huge contingent who voted No Award simply on the basis that the works they would have awarded were not on the slates. The No Award option exists for a reason.

Quote
4. Ergo, your your claim that "it's probable that most of the people involved don't think they were a deserving author" and also "I think it's very likely that a lot of people knew the background for the slate and did the very human thing of voting "No Award" because they felt that none of those books deserved the prize they were up for." is refuted.

No, it's nothing of the sort.
If I'm just aching this can't go on
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Offline General Battuta

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
Amazon ranking/reviews are pretty meaningless and easily gamed (much Iike nearly every other ranking system available for books, excepting, perhaps, royalty checks).

If they're useful to anyone it's Amazon.

 

Offline karajorma

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
You completely failed to address the point I made, which is that if there is any boost to book reviews caused by discussion of books under consideration for Hugo nominations, it is not unique to the Puppies nor is it unique to this year.


I completely addressed it. It's pretty obvious you failed to understand.

Let me put it simply. Due to the puppies, a very large amount of attention was focused on a very narrow number of books. This process began long before the official nominations were announced. If you truly can't understand how that can increase the rating for those same small number of books, there isn't much point in trying to explain it to you.
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Offline Bobboau

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
with all the focus on them though, and the SJW outrage, couldn't that have sent the rating the other way just as easily? wouldn't there be a lot of "this rape apologistic patriarchy degenerate filth is unbelievably problematic! one star!"

sorry, just read the last few posts.
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Offline karajorma

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
Possibly. But again, there is a difference in how driven both sides are. While I can easily see quite a few people on the Puppies side reviewing several of the books, it would take a particularly psychotic individual to do the same to multiple entries because they disliked the Puppies.

There's a huge difference between the two things after all. The first is merely being a fan. The latter is pretty ****ed up. While I don't doubt that there are some reviews like that, I'd expect them to be drowned out by all the others. It's kinda like people who go on IMDB and give Star Wars a rating of 1 to troll nerds. I don't doubt they exist, but I doubt they affect ratings too much because I doubt that there are that many of them. Especially in a community as small as the one surrounding Hugo voting.
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Offline Luis Dias

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
That might be the correct analysis, but I can't but see a very possible contradiction between the claim that the puppies are way more fanatical than their opposition and the claim that the former completely lost due to the true fans' size, dedication and awareness, who ended up scorching the awards. First, because the claim relies on psychoanalysis, and that's fragile, second because it implies that there aren't fanatics in the true fans side. I've seen those fanatics, so I know they exist. What would matter is their numbers and the difference of willigness to engage in reviewing those books. Better to simply say that the Puppies were way more interested in the slated books, and therefore this reflected on their reviews on Amazon.

 

Offline The E

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
The Puppies were way more engaged in terms of reviewing their books. Their opposition was more engaged in terms of showing up at the Hugos and voting. Guess which is more effective in getting Hugos.
If I'm just aching this can't go on
I came from chasing dreams to feel alone
There must be changes, miss to feel strong
I really need lifе to touch me
--Evergrey, Where August Mourns

 

Offline Luis Dias

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
That's what she I said.

But I used too many words, I agree.

  

Offline karajorma

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
That might be the correct analysis, but I can't but see a very possible contradiction between the claim that the puppies are way more fanatical than their opposition and the claim that the former completely lost due to the true fans' size, dedication and awareness, who ended up scorching the awards. First, because the claim relies on psychoanalysis, and that's fragile, second because it implies that there aren't fanatics in the true fans side. I've seen those fanatics, so I know they exist. What would matter is their numbers and the difference of willigness to engage in reviewing those books. Better to simply say that the Puppies were way more interested in the slated books, and therefore this reflected on their reviews on Amazon.

That's pretty much what I said actually. I'm not saying that there wouldn't be anti-Puppies who'd be fairly driven to stop the Puppies. I'm saying that I doubt that desire would manifest in them going onto Amazon and giving the books lower scores deliberately in a large enough number of individuals. There are much better ways of showing your dissatisfaction with the Puppies than this strange and rather oblique method. 

I can't see it happening unless it was organised. In which case, same as with the Puppies organising a drive to push up the ratings, we'd probably have heard of it already.
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Offline Luis Dias

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
Yeah I realise it, I have slept two hours today and 5 yesterday, so I apologize in advance for all the further facepalms that I might provide through the rest of the day.

 

Offline Bobboau

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
I don't know, this has been an insanely heated topic, and SJWs have shown themselves to be relentless and meticulous. and down voting books online because of online lynch mobism is a thing. I remember Anne Rice was having some sort of problem with that a few months ago. I think the puppies opposition is no less driven than they are.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2015, 10:23:25 am by Bobboau »
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Offline The E

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
And yet, the absence of such behaviour should tell you something, no?
If I'm just aching this can't go on
I came from chasing dreams to feel alone
There must be changes, miss to feel strong
I really need lifе to touch me
--Evergrey, Where August Mourns

 

Offline Bobboau

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
well, Goober's point was that the SJW point of view was less popular, and the absence of such behavior would support that, no?
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Offline The E

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
No. All it proves is that these mythical SJWs are apparently not interested in writing reviews for those stories.
If I'm just aching this can't go on
I came from chasing dreams to feel alone
There must be changes, miss to feel strong
I really need lifе to touch me
--Evergrey, Where August Mourns

 

Offline Bobboau

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
yeah, but the high rating proves that the totally factual puppies brigaded the ratings. I see how this works ;)
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Offline The E

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
yeah, but the high rating proves that the totally factual puppies brigaded the ratings. I see how this works ;)

What? No. All it proves is that people liked these books enough to leave positive reviews. But since not enough of those people showed up at Sasquan, their chances of winning Hugos was nil. That's all that happened.
If I'm just aching this can't go on
I came from chasing dreams to feel alone
There must be changes, miss to feel strong
I really need lifе to touch me
--Evergrey, Where August Mourns

 

Offline Bobboau

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Re: Sad Puppies are sad, not canine.
ok, what I was saying was both were as likely.

I read karajorma's post as discounting puppy opposition, maybe glancing at this between builds at work isn't the best idea.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2015, 12:11:49 pm by Bobboau »
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