Author Topic: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>  (Read 67429 times)

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Offline 666maslo666

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
Quote
You haven't made any statistical claims.  You're provided gut feelings.

http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?page=1&casualties_type=b&casualties_max=&start_yearonly=2000&end_yearonly=2014&dtp2=all&region=8&charttype=line&chart=regions&expanded=no&ob=TotalNumberOfFatalities&od=desc#results-table

List of 20 deadliest terrorist attacks in western Europe from 2000 to 2014. 10 of them are confirmed islamist attacks (located mostly at the top of the list). Now, do muslims make up 50% of population of western Europe? If a group that makes up less than 5% of your population is responsible for 50% of most deadly terrorist attacks, would you call that "gut feeling", or "strong overrepresentation"? You might not like this fact, but statistics are on my side.
And this of course has nothing to do with the fact that extremist groups, motivated by western involvement in the Middle-East, exploit Middle-Eastern strife to motivate people to strike at those Western countries involved in the Middle-East.

No, that's not it.  It's because Arabs and Muslims are just terrorists by nature.  Of course!  That's why it'll totally go away if we stop immigration!

Seriously, this argument you're making has been debunked numerous times in the last few pages, but you continue to do what I said you do in the paragraph you quoted.  This is like talking to a Young-Earth Creationist.  You believe the arguments against your position are invalid because you are unable or unwilling to understand them.

Since you will probably again ignore the point I am making and proceed with the strawmen, I will copy my earlier post here:

The causes are not debated. I acknowledged long ago ITT that the causes of terrorism (extremism in general) are many - poverty, culture, religion, ideology, perceived oppression.. It is pointless to debate, because we all agree here. What you seem to have missed is that I am saying these factors are all very hard, if not practically impossible to change - how many times have I said ITT that "we do not have a magic wand to solve poverty", or that I am skeptical of cultural assimilation? It does not matter what the ultimate cause is, if you cant change it, if it does not point to a practical solution, its irrelevant for our purposes (solving the problem, not just writing long tractats about it).

My solution (minimizing the % of population that is strongly correlated with the unwanted phenomenon) will certainly work no matter the causes, because its not based on causation at all - the correlation is enough for it to work.

The causes are irrelevant for the point I am trying to make. Hell, what you said is the cause (the western involvement, not the "terrorists by nature", before someone misunderstands me), while I dont think its the only factor, definitely contributes to the causation. Does not change my point at all.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2015, 09:00:06 am by 666maslo666 »
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Offline The E

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
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Offline karajorma

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
My solution (minimizing the % of population that is strongly correlated with the unwanted phenomenon) will certainly work no matter the causes, because its not based on causation at all - the correlation is enough for it to work.

You've been told repeatedly why it won't work and you've refused to address that point on numerous occasions. Let me put it this way. How can you prove that having a radicalised 0.01% of the population of a Western country is safer than having a 1% radicalised population of a nearby Middle Eastern country?


Yeah, I pulled those numbers out of my arse, but you've already claimed that correlation is enough so let's go with it.
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Offline 666maslo666

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
My solution (minimizing the % of population that is strongly correlated with the unwanted phenomenon) will certainly work no matter the causes, because its not based on causation at all - the correlation is enough for it to work.

You've been told repeatedly why it won't work and you've refused to address that point on numerous occasions. Let me put it this way. How can you prove that having a radicalised 0.01% of the population of a Western country is safer than having a 1% radicalised population of a nearby Middle Eastern country?

It is evidenced by the fact that by far the most islamist attacks in Europe are commited by people of immigrant origin living in a western country (first, second generation..), hence the first category in your question, not "terrorist tourists" - the second category (of which an example is 9/11). There isnt any nice chart outlining that, but you can google all the attacks in the top 20 attacks list posted earlier, or google all the notorious attacks we had this year (Charlie Hebdo, Lee Rugby, Danish Blasphemy conference, Paris attacks..) and see that all of them have perpetrators which were in the first category, not the second. In light of this, its reasonable to say that the first category is far more dangerous to Europe, probably by the virtue of its closeness. Spatial separation is a very effective defense. Converse is also true, spatial closeness is a pretty big threat.

And just because I can, lets post real numbers of extremists, instead of those pulled out of arse. Prevalence of extremism in muslim countries. Prevalence of extremism among muslim immigrants in a western country. Source 1, Source 2. Multiply the statistics by the proportion of muslims in the population of the given country, to get the proportion of extremists (not terrorists mind you, only a fraction of extremists becomes actual terrorists).
« Last Edit: November 17, 2015, 09:57:49 am by 666maslo666 »
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Offline Aesaar

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
Since you will probably again ignore the point I am making and proceed with the strawmen, I will copy my earlier post here:

The causes are not debated. I acknowledged long ago ITT that the causes of terrorism (extremism in general) are many - poverty, culture, religion, ideology, perceived oppression.. It is pointless to debate, because we all agree here. What you seem to have missed is that I am saying these factors are all very hard, if not practically impossible to change - how many times have I said ITT that "we do not have a magic wand to solve poverty", or that I am skeptical of cultural assimilation? It does not matter what the ultimate cause is, if you cant change it, if it does not point to a practical solution, its irrelevant for our purposes (solving the problem, not just writing long tractats about it).

My solution (minimizing the % of population that is strongly correlated with the unwanted phenomenon) will certainly work no matter the causes, because its not based on causation at all - the correlation is enough for it to work.

The causes are irrelevant for the point I am trying to make. Hell, what you said is the cause (the western involvement, not the "terrorists by nature", before someone misunderstands me), while I dont think its the only factor, definitely contributes to the causation. Does not change my point at all.
And thank you for proving my point.  You're now literally quoting your old posts even though they've been torn apart.

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I am saying these factors are all very hard, if not practically impossible to change
You're saying that, and you're utterly wrong.  Again, IRA.  Seriously.  Are you really this dense?  The IRA didn't fizzle out.  The Troubles ended because the UK government took meaningful steps to change the situation in Northern Ireland.  The environment was changed in such a way that terrorism was no longer necessary.  Perceived oppression is absolutely something that can be changed.

You will not stop extremism by trying to keep it "over there".  Spatial separation will help you when the most successful terrorist attack in history was carried out by people who were not immigrants.  This is not a problem you can solve by shutting down borders to immigration.  You cannot force desperate people to return to a place where they have no future and expect them to simply take it lying down.  There's a hundred years of history that can attest to these facts.  The fact is that the people who move to the West are a lot less likely to join IS than they would be if you sent them back.  Your proposal is to treat all Muslims like extremists, and all it'll accomplish is that it'll make more extremists.  You will strengthen IS.  Again, this is supported by historical fact.  If you disagree, YOU.  ARE. WRONG.  Reality will not bend to your inability to understand it.

But hey, at least you'll ~feel~ safer, right?  Gotta keep those brown people away.

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In light of this, its reasonable to say that the first category is far more dangerous to Europe, probably by the virtue of its closeness.
  No it isn't. You have no data that says the situation would be better if the borders were closed and IS had more support (which they would).  You're just assuming it would be in spite of historical evidence because it's nice and simple and would make you feel safe from all those scary brown people.

And no, like I said above, spatial separation will not help you.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2015, 10:07:28 am by Aesaar »

 

Offline Ghostavo

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
Just a nitpick, Aesaar, maybe wikipedia has failed me, but aren't most Syrian refugees rather white?
« Last Edit: November 17, 2015, 11:16:16 am by Ghostavo »
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Offline Bobboau

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
nope they're muslum and the muslim race is a synonym for brown people. you convert and then your skin changes color.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2015, 11:20:37 am by Bobboau »
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Offline 666maslo666

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
Quote
The IRA didn't fizzle out.  The Troubles ended because the UK government took meaningful steps to change the situation in Northern Ireland.  The environment was changed in such a way that terrorism was no longer necessary.  Perceived oppression is absolutely something that can be changed.

If you think changing the present situation in practice would be so simple as in that case, I have a bridge to sell you. The divide between western civilization and the islamic civilization is far greater than the divide between irish catholics and protestants. Good luck in trying if you want, but I am not betting the future of my country on that slim chance of such an endeavour succeeding. You might as well try to fix the Israel vs. Palestine problem while trying to keep them in the same state.. Futile.

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You will not stop extremism by trying to keep it "over there".  Spatial separation will help you when the most successful terrorist attack in history was carried out by people who were not immigrants.  This is not a problem you can solve by shutting down borders to immigration.

You keep bringing in that one old outlier, in face of all the evidence that spatial separation is actually a good defense to a typical islamist attack, which is commited by people with immigrant origins living in the western country, not "tourists". Why hasnt there been any islamist attack in eastern Europe so far?

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You have no data that says the situation would be better if the borders were closed and IS had more support (which they would).

Are you really implying that if we closed borders, the number of terrorist "tourists" from IS would suddenly magically increase so much that it would drawf the domestic terrorists, despite the fact that the complete opposite is true now, the domestic terrorists drarf the "tourists" from IS? This is a completely unreasonable assumption, based on nothing at all. It makes no sense. At least I have provided examples and numbers to back up my position. You are just claiming you are right, with no evidence presented.

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The fact is that the people who move to the West are a lot less likely to join IS than they would be if you sent them back.

Perhaps they will be a bit more likely to join IS, but they wont pose much of a threat to us if they are in the middle east, will they? IS does not have ICBMs and threat posed by "terrorist tourists" from the middle east is pretty miniscule compared to homegrown terrorism. I am not afraid of IS, they are pretty much doomed now. Homegrown terrorism is the primary threat, one we need to tackle (at least stop from increasing).
« Last Edit: November 17, 2015, 11:20:17 am by 666maslo666 »
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Offline 666maslo666

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
If I had to flee, I too would try to reach a place where I could make a better living for myself or my family.

Yeah, but then you are an economic migrant, not a refugee, and should be treated as such. Just because there is a war in my country does not mean I get to travel all around the world at will, even violating legal borders. Refugees are supposed to seek asylum in first safe country. Not fifth safe one. That is country shopping.
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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
Well yeah but the problem that's causing in Europe is that it puts a disproportionate burden on the countries that are easiest to reach from the Middle East, and they're not happy about it.
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Offline The E

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
If I had to flee, I too would try to reach a place where I could make a better living for myself or my family.

Yeah, but then you are an economic migrant, not a refugee, and should be treated as such. Just because there is a war in my country does not mean I get to travel all around the world at will, even violating legal borders. Refugees are supposed to seek asylum in first safe country. Not fifth safe one. That is country shopping.

Read my post again. I said "flee", not "emigrate". There's a difference between the two.
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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
Speaking of ISIS doomed:

The Bear got pissed as well. Long range bombers joined the party. That's one for a liner jet bombed.

https://www.rt.com/news/322436-russia-strikes-syria-putin/

<I usually avoid "Russia Today" as a source but that was a simple message>

I'm very curious about the changes in French narration on the Syrian issue in the nearest future. They were one of the strongest voices calling for toppling Assad but now it looks like they will make some adjustments.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2015, 11:48:46 am by Col.Hornet »

 

Offline AtomicClucker

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
Well, I've said before I hold the Left-leaning government for mishandling the entire PR situation with the refugees in a stupid and faux manner. Take for example Germany censoring material on Facebook about the migrant crisis.

They like to paint it pretty and that everyone can get along, but what exactly is happening IS people not getting along. Governments should be working more on opening a dialogue between the citizens, refugees, and why the hell they're there. Instead, we see fingers pointed, right wingers screaming, and Lefties boldly assert that we have to accept them without question (and my stance is that it's not a question of shame, but confusion and lot of pent up frustration on both sides) and my blunt assertion is that it seems blame, along with the refugees are being shoveled around. And as for Sweden? They got some serious problems, it's a nation that bent over backwards to fulfill its own politically correct agenda, so they get to deal with the aftermath when those "lofty" policies and quotas based on fluff meat reality.

With any migrant population, there will be elements that are unacceptable, and with different cultures, bumps kinks, and **** will happen. Heck, I live in the American Southwest, and the reality of migrants and illegal immigration is quite different than what the media tells us. Quite frankly, despite Trump's bluster, no one is in a hurry here to shoot each other except idiots.

The migrants and immigration is a problem, but I still chuckle that the Euro governments routinely lie, censor, and encourage little white lies to their populations about it - and perhaps themselves. What I'm saying is it's time to stop dreaming and actually high-time to fix things. One thing is to bring stability back to Syria and extension, the rest of the Middle East. As long as that region remains volatile, you'll get terrorists and waves of refugees and migrants.
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Offline 666maslo666

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
Phantom Hoover, thats true, and it is an issue that should be solved by a combination of generous foreign aid (because foreign aid going directly to refugee camps is one of the most effective ways of helping refugees), and maybe some refugee redistribution. But this redistribution should be done in an organized manner by taking genuine refugees directly from middle eastern refugee camps (UK does it this way AFAIK), and it should be on the sovereignty of individual countries (no forced quotas) and also it should be clear that we are doing it out of the goodness of our hearts, not because we have to.

What we have instead is this mad rush of everyone from middle east and north africa running or swimming into Germany and Sweden with nobody stopping them or regulating it (except for Hungary maybe). That is insanity. There must be radical change.
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Offline headdie

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
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Offline Aesaar

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
You keep bringing in that one old outlier, in face of all the evidence that spatial separation is actually a good defense to a typical islamist attack, which is commited by people with immigrant origins living in the western country, not "tourists". Why hasnt there been any islamist attack in eastern Europe so far?
"That one outlier" is the most successful terrorist attack in history and has been the defining event of this generation.  I know it's inconvenient to your worldview because it doesn't fit neatly into it, but you do not get to dismiss it just because you don't like its implications.  It's important, and it's very pertinent.  Deal with it.

And there have been attacks in eastern Europe.  Or do you not consider Russia as part of Europe?

Outside of Russia, I'd say it can be chalked up to the rather trivial involvement of eastern European countries in Middle-Eastern affairs, which is in rather stark contrast to France and the UK.  In short: Eastern Europeans countries that aren't Russia make relatively poor targets because they're not important enough (in this context). 

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Are you really implying that if we closed borders, the number of terrorist "tourists" from IS would suddenly magically increase so much that it would drawf the domestic terrorists, despite the fact that the complete opposite is true now, the domestic terrorists drarf the "tourists" from IS? This is a completely unreasonable assumption, based on nothing at all. It makes no sense. At least I have provided examples and numbers to back up my position. You are just claiming you are right, with no evidence presented.
  I'm saying that the number of extremists you create by sending refugees back to IS is going to more than make up for the few terrorists you send back with them.  You'll feel safer, but you won't be.

And I, and the people who agree with me, have been backing our statements with actual historical facts, because big surprise, some of us have actual formal education on this subject, which you plainly do not.  The only evidence you've cited are two studies that don't actually agree with your point.  So no, you haven't presented examples to support your position, you've cited data you've misinterpreted.  All the **** you've spouted has been handily and comprehensively addressed and dismissed by everyone who's engaged with you.  Which is why you keep going back to the same talking points. 

Formulating a new argument would require you to consider the notion that you might be wrong, and you're not able to do that.

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Perhaps they will be a bit more likely to join IS, but they wont pose much of a threat to us if they are in the middle east, will they? IS does not have ICBMs and threat posed by "terrorist tourists" from the middle east is pretty miniscule compared to homegrown terrorism. I am not afraid of IS, they are pretty much doomed now. Homegrown terrorism is the primary threat, one we need to tackle (at least stop from increasing).
Yes they will still be a threat.  If they can't enter as immigrants, they'll enter as tourists.  Sure, they prefer to enter as immigrants because it's got advantages, but they'll make do with tourist visas, and since you've so cheerfully sent them more recruits, there'll be more of them, and IS itself will have gained more support at home as well.  Our world is too interconnected for something as trivial as distance to be an obstacle.

Yours is a short-term and ineffective solution that will ensure the longevity of IS and other extremist factions, because you're exactly the kind of person they claim to be fighting.  Your way of thinking is a boon to terrorism.  You are helping them.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2015, 12:15:25 pm by Aesaar »

 

Offline Bobboau

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
Aesaar, you realize you are pushing him and silent third parties further way from your position with the assertions of racism and the "Deal with it", right?
feel free to do so, but I just want to make sure you are considering that.
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Offline Aesaar

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Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
People have tried to be reasonable for most of the thread.  It's had no effect.  The discussion is pointless because he's unable or unwilling to consider that his world view is flawed.  I realized a long time ago that I wasn't going to convince him.

And I'll absolutely call bull**** on any insinuation that 9/11 is not relevant to a discussion about terrorism.  Because it's ****ing bull****.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2015, 12:26:01 pm by Aesaar »

 
Re: Another terrorist attack in Paris <13.11.2015>
Aesaar, you realize you are pushing him and silent third parties further way from your position with the assertions of racism and the "Deal with it", right?
feel free to do so, but I just want to make sure you are considering that.

If silent third parties change their position based on who's using harsh words or memespeak instead of actual value in their arguments then one really shouldn't care if they're pushing them away.

Besides, why would anyone care about those mysterious 'silent third parties' anyway? There's no audience to award points and declare a winner, this isn't a televised debate.
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