[Grey Wolf]

I was just wondering how everyone felt about the recent news about these two countries. Specifically the referendums that are being planned in Taiwan, and China's threats to invade if the referendums go through.

[Nico]

didn't hear about that. link?

[vyper]

The Chinese won't do it - too much of a gamble.

[Grey Wolf]

This seems like a pretty good story on it: http://msnbc.msn.com/Default.aspx?id=3706428&p1=0

[Knight Templar]

Summary?

[aldo_14]

Nah, it's quite Wintery here actually.

On topic - the international community should support Taiwan on the simple principle of supporting freedom of speech and democracy.

[Zarax]

It's almost like a Tom Clancy's book *hint: read them, they're pretty good*

[Kosh]

I think China is doing some sabre rattling. They get more out of trade than they would through invading. Wars (especially little ones) = very expensive.

[Bobboau]

but they do seem to be hell ebnt on makeing (keeping) Taiwan there *****, the US has had a history of suporting Taiwan, but Bush seems oddly war weary on this subject,
IF Taiwan declairs independence and IF China invades, who would suport them (Taiwan) other than us (we had better ****ing suport them, god damnit dubya so help me!)?
if all of Europe and the US said 'um, no' to China, I don't think they'd do a damned thing, but if it was just the US they might take the risk

[Beowulf]

China has a minimal surface fleet, but has amassed amphibius landing and assault craft along with enough conventional firepower to take out a US carrier task force... from then on after they have secured Taiwan and taken out our fleet in the proximity, it would be hard for any nation to combat them... it would have to be a land battle. So we've got tomahawks... so what? You need to put a force on the ground to keep ground, and thanks to Clinton that force largely does not exist.

So here's the problem. China strikes first, takes out the US carrier task force, secures Taiwan and hides their surface fleet (they don't need it). How does the US fight back? Tomahaks? What soldiers? You mean the ones needed for Iraq and Afganistan?

We certainly would not use nukes.... talk about disaster. And what happens while we ship every Marine over to Taiwan? North Korea invades south, bulldozing over the American forces in the middle. America does not have the forces to fight three (3) wars. Draft? For Taiwan? You've got to be kidding me.

This is what will happen (if): China invades, we do nothing. China keeps Taiwan a capitalistic state (similar to the idea of Hong Kong).

[Nico]

Originally posted by Bobboau
but Bush seems oddly war weary on this subject,

Oddly?

[mikhael]

Yes, "oddly". Odd because he seems willing to send American troops to die elsewhere. Then again, Halliburton has no interests in Taiwan.

To the subject at hand though: while I support Taiwan's stand on independence, I think they need to tread softly. They're still a chinese province. As long as they don't formally declare independence, mainland China is perfectly willing to let them go their own way.

If it comes to war, the US should only become involved if Taiwan requests aid. And even then, we need to work to avert that war. We have nothing to gain in pitting US troops vs Chinese troops and letting both die.

[Gloriano]

Originally posted by mikhael
Yes, "oddly". Odd because he seems willing to send American troops to die elsewhere. Then again, Halliburton has no interests in Taiwan.

because i think that USA don't want war with China(because China would be far more Dangerous enemy Than Iraq or Afganistan

but any case i hope that there is no war between China and Taiwan peace is better

[Nico]

That's why I'm surprised with the "oddly":
Irak= easy victory
Taiwan= China=  possible backfire. Painful backfire should I say

Bush is just not up for any challenge, if there's no 100% chance to win easily, he won't go. Taiwan, Korea, all that, he won't touch it with a ten lightyear long tadpole, there's nothing "odd" there.

[mikhael]

That's a good way of looking at it.

[Nico]

Yeah, heh?
Plus you have to consider that in less than a year, it's the elections. Starting a war around Taiwan, that won't be dealt with as fast as Irak ( well, as fast as Irak was supposed to be dealt with, let's say ). That will drag about, that will raise international problems, and that would cost soldiers lives, money, etc, all that during the little time there's left, time that will shorten, shorten, shorten, while the war would still go on. That would cost Bush his second mandat, since, from what I can see on the net, the US people don't give a damn about Taiwan, and they would question the US troops being there. No muslim terrorists that could threaten them in Taiwan, you know.

[Bobboau]

'odd' in that he has been quite willing to implement the imiltary as the primary means by wich to solve problems, not that there wasn't a good explaination as to why he would make this change of heart. personaly I'm willing to got out for a frend, but our odds of victory are far slimmer if nobody helps us, we are already fighting two wars, if everyone else realy helps we would probly be able to win easily, but on our own it would be a tough battle, especaly gien that China has ICBMs and nukes,

given that this would be a defencive war (from a tactical point of view) I realy don't think our useage of nukes would be too preductive, there only use would be if China decided to launch nukes aganst us, at wich point we'de have to react in kind (BTW if this happens I live < 10 and work < 1 mile mile form the US air force's logistical comand center, if it isn't one the 'must nuke first' list it's defenantly on the 'ok now get these' list)

[IceFire]

The way that American forces are stretched thin they would need heavy NATO support from all major military powers to win in the short term against China and that would take some serious doing to have it happen in time.

Taiwan is one of those powderkeg scenarios that people like Tom Clancy like because its something that could easily blow up really quickly or not do anything at all.

I support the idea of Taiwan independence especially since they essentially operate as an independent...however, they shouldn't provoke the situation any further than they need to.  And the way that the US is stretched militarily right now and with fears still present over North Korea the entire area is a danger.

[Nico]

That's what makes our time exciting, no?
All that is gonna turn out interesting, I think

[Bobboau]

old Chinees curse;
"may you live in interesting times"

I think, for there own good, Taiwan should wait untill we are in a better military position before they start declairing independence or something