Author Topic: North Korea Disarmament  (Read 1906 times)

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Offline BlackDove

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Originally posted by Depth_Charge




True, but back then.....china send bout a million of their troops to go against us, and we were out number, but we kick their asses also and push them back.......don't get me wrong guys....its true.....


Had a relative fight in the war?

 

Offline Col. Fishguts

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Originally posted by BlackDove
They've heard the words "gay" and "abandon" but obviously never together.


Yes, someone explain teh funnay to us non-native english speakers, please.
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Quote
Originally posted by BlackDove


Had a relative fight in the war?



don't know, but i dad knows.....maybe someone on his side of the family that i never knew or a friend.....dunno

 

Offline Ford Prefect

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To do something with "gay abandon" means to do it gleefully and without inhibition. It's sort of a quaint, old expression. To any non-native speakers who were not aware, "gay" meant "joyful" before it had anything to do with homosexuality.
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Offline aldo_14

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Quote
Originally posted by Depth_Charge

True, but back then.....china send bout a million of their troops to go against us, and we were out number, but we kick their asses also and push them back.......don't get me wrong guys....its true.....


You should go and tell North Korea that.  For some reason (perhaps the lack of a treaty to end the war, killing just under 1m UN troops and happening to control the northern half of the country), they believe they won.

Of course, in reality it was a stalemate where the UNs advance (driving NK forces out of the South) was checked when the Russians and Chinese intervened.  Whilst the former would be unlikely to intervene in a modern war, it'd be tempered with a far more technologically adept Chinese force (still allied with NK), and a far smaller level of support for the 'allied' side (likely to be almost wholly US led in nature; the main allies from Iraq wouldn't have the capability to operate in 2 theatres even if the public allowed them - truth be told, the US probably doesn't have that capability either).

EDIT; excepting of course that the North control former South Korean territory still, namely the city of Kaesong
« Last Edit: September 19, 2005, 02:36:09 pm by 181 »

 

Offline Janos

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Quote
Originally posted by aldo_14


You should go and tell North Korea that.  For some reason (perhaps the lack of a treaty to end the war, killing just under 1m UN troops and happening to control the northern half of the country), they believe they won.

Of course, in reality it was a stalemate where the UNs advance (driving NK forces out of the South) was checked when the Russians and Chinese intervened.  Whilst the former would be unlikely to intervene in a modern war, it'd be tempered with a far more technologically adept Chinese force (still allied with NK), and a far smaller level of support for the 'allied' side (likely to be almost wholly US led in nature; the main allies from Iraq wouldn't have the capability to operate in 2 theatres even if the public allowed them - truth be told, the US probably doesn't have that capability either).

EDIT; excepting of course that the North control former South Korean territory still, namely the city of Kaesong


I can see no way how China would willingly commit itself to defence of North Korea. NK just whores and begs for money, guns and food. US, South Korea, Japan and pretty much everyone else offer big bucks, investments, market grounds and stuff. North Korea offers it's everlasting wrath and vengeance and juche ideology. Trade powerhouses offer oil trades and shareholders and stocks and tourism.
China siding with NK because they're both communist in name? I really don't see how. China has snapped at NK several times, not least because of endless masses of refugees. Russia is pretty much in no shape to confront US even by proxy, because their bussiness interests lay in west as well. Also, their army is pretty much in shambles for the next decades unless they can somehow cut corruption and increase military spending from strategical missile forces to touch regular ground grunts as well.

As for NK's army... well, against US and very well-trained ROK forces they wouldn't stand much of a chance, save for their unverified nuclear option which would be pretty self-defeating for obvious reasons (well at least they could propably reach Seoul).
North Korea has no modern navy, ground forces or air force to speak of, and most of their missile or armoured weaponry is based on 1950-1970s Russian era weaponry, which might have been good for it's time but what is hopelessly outclassed nowadays. They don't pack significant industrial muscle and even less any kind of weaponry to actually protect what they got.
NK's biggest trump card is their artillery. They have a ****load of guns. However they only have such an impressive number of guns because they have saved pretty much every piece of artillery they have ever gotten their hands into - this means WW2-era 122mm Russian howitzers which are by no means accurate. Their biggest guns - the only ones which can reach even the northern outskirts of Seoul [unless NK has suddenly gotten extremely modern long-range submunition rocket artillery or something] are firing from fixed positions which are pretty well-known for US/ROK forces. A fixed target is an easy target, and an easy target is very, very dead target. Also, the entire counterbattery fire and artillery radar thing is something US/ROK forces are, not surprisingly, very good at. The artillery barrage would be pretty short and not as lethal as it would've been in, say 1970s or even early 1990s.
Oh, I forgot NK's Special Forces. Their SF are pretty large and seemingly pretty useless - they reach the same level casual ROK/US/JDF infantrymen have, with ****tier equipment, more malnutritition bonus, worse supply muscle to back them up and against superior odds in quality terms.  

As for the topic, I don't actually see NK dropping anything that works as really, really powerful bargaining chip AND a deterrent against hypothetical IMPERIALIST ASSAULT. They have done this over and over again and will basically be a huge pain in the ass until someone gives them what they want - for now. North Korea is the ADD kid of international politics and it will not change unless something really nasty happens.

Edit: I think I could go on and on about force multipliers, morality, war weariness, post-war situation, cost, political cost, Rammstein and different wild scenarios, but right now I really can't bother because I am tired.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2005, 03:09:51 pm by 1621 »
lol wtf

 

Offline aldo_14

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NK offers China a strategic land buffer, though.  Particularly should they decide to get more... possessive about Taiwan.  If China views its alliance with NK as useful leverage vis-a-vis the US, then it may be worthwhile for them to get involved in some way (whether covert or overt; perhaps just supplying some weapons to test them in battlefield conditions).

It may also suit China to be next to a country with even ****ter human rights than themselves, of course; although I don't think China would task the risk of involvement.

But the likelihood of any invasion IMO would be something more akin to Iraq or Vietnam, i.e. irregular and/or fanatical forces harassing occupying forces constantly.

I'd think that NK would use artillery primarily for biological weapons deployment, though.  I don't know how much they have, but IIRC it's pretty well documented that they do a lot of tests of CBW on political prisoners.

Anyways, my main point is that it wouldn't be an easy war as was intimated.

 

Offline aldo_14

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It's failed already.  NK are now asking for a civvie nuclear reactor, which they have **** all chance of getting.

 

Offline Bobboau

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haha told you so :p
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Offline Rictor

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That the problem: while you can argue for or against a nation's right to nuclear weapons by way of the NPT, there exists no treaty AFAIK that forbids anyone from having a reactor for civilian energy purposes. Just give them the freaking reactor, under the provision that inspectors are present, and move the situation out of the same cycle that's been going on for ages. Besides, it would be a humanitarian gesture, with people starving and all the energy might likely help out.

 

Offline Mefustae

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Originally posted by Janos
As for NK's army... well, against US an' very well-trained ROK forces they wouldn't stand much o' a chance, save for their unverified nuclear option which would be pretty self-defeatin' for obvious reasons (well at least they could propably reach Seoul).
North Korea has nay modern navy, ground forces or air force t'speak of, an' most o' their missile or armoured weaponry be based on 1950-1970s Russian era weaponry, which might have been good for it's time but what be hopelessly outclassed nowadays. They don't pack significant industrial muscle an' even less any kind o' weaponry t'actually protect what they got.
NK's biggest trump card be their artillery. They have a ****load o' guns. However they only have such an impressive number o' guns on account o' they have saved pretty much every piece o' artillery they have ever gotten their hands into - this means WW2-era 122mm Russian howitzers which are by nay means accurate. Their biggest guns - th'only ones which can reach even th'northern outskirts o' Seoul [unless NK has suddenly gotten extremely modern long-range submunition rocket artillery or something] are firin' from fixed positions which are pretty well-known for US/ROK forces. A fixed target be an easy target, an' an easy target be very, very dead target. Also, th'entire counterbattery fire an' artillery radar thin' be somethin' US/ROK forces are, not surprisingly, very good at. The artillery barrage would be pretty short an' not as lethal as it would've been in, say 1970s or even early 1990s.
Oh, I forgot NK's Special Forces. Their SF are pretty large an' seemingly pretty useless - they reach th'same level casual ROK/US/JDF infantrymen have, with ****tier equipment, more malnutritition bonus, worse supply muscle t'back them up an' against superior odds in quality terms.  


Not neccissarily. Just because the US Armed Forces enjoy better training and equiptment doens't mean that it gives it an edge over opposing armies. In certain situations, such as open fields and plains - not unlike Iraq - the US undoubtedly has the advantage, however in the mountainous, irregular terrain of NK...well, let's just say the playing field will be quite level in an invasion took place. Remember, NK would have the home-team advantage, meaning that their forces would be adapted to the mountainous terrain. Moreover, NK has quite a large stockpile of Anti-Aircraft systems, not to mention a modest - while outdated - Airforce that would likely hold its own against whatever the USN/USAF could muster, short of a Carrier Battle Group or two. Regardless, close air support would be a challenge to provide to any ground forces, and as many of the US primary Armoured Units are not designed for optimal operation in a NK-style environment - they're suited at open field warfare, not mountains - the US could not gain too much ground without committing a scale of assets far beyond the current ability of their Armed Forces given the present world climate and state of their nation...

...Even without Nuclear Weapons, NK is still a very tough nut to crack, and would certainly turn into another Vietnam. The main difference being that - should the US come to invading and run into considerable trouble - the idea of a large-scale nuclear ibombardment of key strategic locations would be a lot more likely...:nervous:

 

Offline aldo_14

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Originally posted by Rictor
That th'problem: while ye can argue for or against a nation's right t'nuclear weapons by way o' th'NPT, thar exists nay treaty AFAIK that forbids anyone from havin' a reactor for civilian energy purposes. Just give them th'freakin' reactor, under th'provision that inspectors are present, an' move th'situation out o' th'same cycle that's been goin' on for ages. Besides, it would be a humanitarian gesture, with people starvin' an' all th'energy might likely help out.


Build a reactor in Kaesong  (somewhere near the DMZ that can be joint administrated or run by the UN/IEAE), and let the South run it or similar.  I'm not sure I'd trust the North with a civvie reactor, given their record of being right evil bastards, but I can understand their need for leccy power (partly) driving the current sabre rattling.

 

Offline Bobboau

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I wouldn't have any problem with a UN/SK run reactor for the sole purpose of powering the north, it's the north haveing anything nuclear that I won't budge on.
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Offline vyper

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That's the problem because they won't either.
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Offline Janos

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Quote
Originally posted by Mefustae


Not neccissarily. Just because the US Armed Forces enjoy better training and equiptment doens't mean that it gives it an edge over opposing armies.
[/b]
Yes it means. Better training is quite a force multiplier. You can pit two soldiers against each other and see who wins. Usually it's the guy who can react better, keep his head calmer, take better advantage of his surroundings and is a better shot - and these are exactly the things basic training focuses on.
I hate to bring out a WW2 analogy, but it's pretty useful here: German army in the beginning of invasion of France was numerically outgunned and had worse tanks than most of their adversaries. They, however, were very well trained and even consripcts generally knew what they were doing (thanks to vigorous training). They pretty much kicked ass. Finnish army was completely outnumbered and outgunned in the beginning of Winter War, yet they were better trained than opposing forces (and adapted to enviroment), and kicked pretty much ass until someone had an idea of maybe actually training the Russians. Then the Russians won.

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. In certain situations, such as open fields and plains - not unlike Iraq - the US undoubtedly has the advantage, however in the mountainous, irregular terrain of NK...well, let's just say the playing field will be quite level in an invasion took place.

Random tactical levelheads don't level the entire field. US has pretty much superb experience when it comes to urban and rugged terrain combat (think: Iraq, Afghanistan, ****load of SpecOps operations everywhere). Also, even strange terrain can be defeated with flexible thinking and good training.

The biggest problem with NK is that they dig everything underground. It requires bunker busters and stuff - which the US has. It also requires time - which is always an issue in war. Overall, it requires intelligence. US/ROK has q good deal of it, but in these kind of situations you can never know everything.

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 Remember, NK would have the home-team advantage, meaning that their forces would be adapted to the mountainous terrain.

This is true, but it's not an end-it-all multiplier.

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Moreover, NK has quite a large stockpile of Anti-Aircraft systems, not to mention a modest - while outdated - Airforce that would likely hold its own against whatever the USN/USAF could muster.  short of a Carrier Battle Group or two.

Massive AA fire can be useful. Serbs shot down a F-117 with just AA guns, lol. However, often the range and other deficiencies of older Russian AA systems (which NK forces use, though they are pretty damn secretive) are well known and noted around Western Countries. Iglas, Strelas and heavy SA platforms are useful en masse. The air defence network would cause some headache.

As for NK air force - give me a break. We are talking about these two countries:
First country is NK. Their bulk fighter is MiG-21 - quality 1960s technology with possible updates up to bis-versions. They also pack some MiG-23 Floggers. They are more capable, from 1960s point of view. NK also has a small compliment of MiG-29s which are a-OK, but practically every even nearly realistic training tells us that Western fighters generally sweep the floor even with MiG-29s. OK, India won one war game where US counterops were denied stuff like AWACS and long-range missiles. They even have Su-17s still in service.

The second opposing country is USA, with their immense USAF which generally pretty much the best air force in the world (Israelis are pretty kickass as well, hmm hmm). They can launch F-15s from the southern tip of SK and they could engage NK MiGs almost immediately after launch. Countering a huge mass of Soviet superfighters (this story involves XB-70s, MiG-25 and a lot of misinformation), the F-15 has kill ratio of something like 1XX:0. The bigger the operation, the better the AWACS and other support units enforce the lethality of USAF. I have little idea of South Korean air force, but they seem to use F-16, F-5 and some other platforms and are considering F-15 as well. I would bet 50:1 that US would win the air war in short amount of time.
Oh yeah, and carrier groups! They are pretty much invincible to 3rd world countries, and even US commanders have very, very difficult time trying to stop or destroy their own CVBGs in war games.

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Regardless, close air support would be a challenge to provide to any ground forces, and as many of the US primary Armoured Units are not designed for optimal operation in a NK-style environment - they're suited at open field warfare, not mountains - the US could not gain too much ground without committing a scale of assets far beyond the current ability of their Armed Forces given the present world climate and state of their nation...


There'a always ROK. At this moment there are also 37 000 US troops ("the tripwire") which will be cut by 12 000 (thus becoming even more tripwire). Right now US is bogged down in Iraq/Afghanistan/all over the place, but in case of NK attack (unlikely) the US could transfer air and naval assets into to TOS very quickly, and reserves and redeployments would take weeks, not months.

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...Even without Nuclear Weapons, NK is still a very tough nut to crack, and would certainly turn into another Vietnam. The main difference being that - should the US come to invading and run into considerable trouble - the idea of a large-scale nuclear ibombardment of key strategic locations would be a lot more likely...:nervous: [/B]


Vietnam scenario requires active, militaristically adept insurgency. If US decides to attack NK, it requires a lot of things: casus belli, manpower, long preparations, support from international community (POLAND DOES NOT COUNT) et cetera et cetera. Defending ROK against NK attack would be pretty different.

Nuclear war is a good deterrent. US wouldn't get nuked to oblivion in any case - unless NK uses magic wizard power and suddenly has 12 000 H-bombs of 50Mt scale or something), but ROK could suffer quite a lot. That must be taken into consideration. It would be so... uhh, pretty bad and ****ed up to see US rush into Korea because OMG TERRISM NUKULAR and see Seoul nuked in retaliation. Casus belli post hoc! Yay!
lol wtf

 

Offline Rictor

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Quote
Originally posted by aldo_14


Build a reactor in Kaesong  (somewhere near the DMZ that can be joint administrated or run by the UN/IEAE), and let the South run it or similar.  I'm not sure I'd trust the North with a civvie reactor, given their record of being right evil bastards, but I can understand their need for leccy power (partly) driving the current sabre rattling.


Bastards they may well be (and by this I mean the governement, not the people, of course) but that's not, as far as I know, sufficient cause to rob NK as a nation of the right possesed by every nation, namely the right to nuclear technology for civilian purposes. Why should it be run by a foreign power? I don't see the UK handing over it's reactors to French control.

Yes, the facility should be open to IAEA inspectors, as should every other one in every other nation, but that's different than having it under someone else's control. It looks rather a lot like the master feeding his slaves as he sees fit, rather than them growing and eating their food independently.

Oh yeah, and carrier groups! They are pretty much invincible to 3rd world countries, and even US commanders have very, very difficult time trying to stop or destroy their own CVBGs in war games.

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Oh yeah, and carrier groups! They are pretty much invincible to 3rd world countries, and even US commanders have very, very difficult time trying to stop or destroy their own CVBGs in war games.

In practice I agree. In theory: Millenium Challenge 2 showed that carrier groups are not invincible. Not that it would be that simple in real life, but I don't buy the myth of invincibility. They've just never gone up against a real threat (to the carriers that is.)

Look, the US does clearly have a huge technological advantage, but NK ins't a sitting duck either. How many soldiers do you think about be required to successfuly enagage the North? Not less that half a million. The US is strained projecting 120,000 in Iraq and maybe another 10,000 in Afghanistan. That's still 3-4 times less than the minimum required for a war with NK. Where would they get the troops? I'm pretty sure that every reserve that could be tapped has already been tapped for Iraq. It's not like they have several hundred thousand soldiers just sitting twiddling their thumbs. And if you think any other country is crazy enough to get involved...well, you know better than that.

Yes, the US could win a war against the North. But they wouldn't be willing to start it in the first place, because it would be too costly and they just could muster the forces. Besides, what's the use? Leave NK alone for a few deacdes and it will crumble by itself. From what I know, they're barely hanging on.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2005, 07:17:39 pm by 644 »

 

Offline aldo_14

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Originally posted by Rictor


Bastards they may well be (and by this I mean the governement, not the people, of course) but that's not, as far as I know, sufficient cause to rob NK as a nation of the right possesed by every nation, namely the right to nuclear technology for civilian purposes. Why should it be run by a foreign power? I don't see the UK handing over it's reactors to French control.

Yes, the facility should be open to IAEA inspectors, as should every other one in every other nation, but that's different than having it under someone else's control. It looks rather a lot like the master feeding his slaves as he sees fit, rather than them growing and eating their food independently.
 


The UK doesn't have a history of using political dissidents as guinea pigs for chemical weapons experiments, though.  This is not, IMO, a question of whether you can trust the people but whether you can trust the North Korean government to run a nuclear power station without seeking to subvert it in order to develop some form of nuclear weapon*.  I don't think you can, and the problem is that if you do so, what happens when the NKs decide to chuck out the IAEA inspectors and cameras?  Do you start a war to destroy the reactor in that case?

The suggestion of the UN in particular running a reactor in the DMZ is simply because the UN is the most (only) neutral international body, and the DMZ can be considered neutral ground acting as a barried to use in WMD development.  The reason for suggesting the South help run it, was simply to suggest a way of ensuring increasing co-operation between the two.

*I don't believe anyone should have or develop nuclear weapons, including UK, US, etc; however, if we're going to stop anyone developing them, it might as well be the nutty tinpot dictatorships ala North Korea.  Hypocritical as it is for us to keep them, and I am fully for disarmament, especially given the massive maintenance costs.