[Rictor]

...land-line phones become a thing of the past?

I say 30 years for most countries, maybe another 10 for the poorer ones*. Though if recent history has taught us anything, it's going to be even less than that.

It's frightening to see how rapidly and how significantly the world is changing. A mere decade ago mobile phones were a rare and exotic gadget. Now, everyone has one, even in the Third World, and it won't be long before they come standard with a camera, WiFi, full colour screen and mp3/video playback. Probably act as a credit card before long, and GPS to boot.

*and by this I mean compltetely gone. A gradual shift away from fixed phones will probably happen much sooner. In fact, it's already in progress.

[WMCoolmon]

Originally posted by Rictor
and it won't be long before they come standard with a camera, WiFi, full colour screen and mp3/video playback.

They already do. Maybe not 802.11g, but bluetooth and web browsers, sure.

Hell I know one girl who uses her cell phone as an mp3 player. I'd probably use mine that way too, except it doesn't have a standard headphone port.

[vyper]

VoIP is going to render phone lines a thing of the past per se, they'll just become very phat internet connections that support everything from browsing, downloading, TV/Home-Cinema, and VoIP.

Costs will drop like a lead balloon, until someone comes up with a valuable addition that everyone wants but can't afford.

[BlackDove]

The Japanese already use them for all of the above, together with internet browsing/e-mail capabilties, TV in some cases, etc.

We're just somewhat behind.

[Mongoose]

As long as Cingular keeps providing crappy enough service for me to lose a connection every ten minutes, and as long as cell phones can't manage to have a talk time of more than two or three hours before running out of battery charge, I'll still see land lines as superior. And for God's sake, is it even possible to buy a phone that's just a phone anymore, without all that other extraneous crap like cameras, video players, and the like?

[achtung]

For Highly Industrialized parts of the World I say 35 years or so because youv'e got to admit plain old phone lines are extremely reliable cheap and why tear up miles of good cable when you could still make a buck off of it?

For Rural and third world country parts of the world I say 60 years, because even small areas in the U.S. still don't have broadband and towers and standard lines are still reliable and cheap.

When it comes to VoIP I'll say it'll take up to 25 years to become available everywhere.

When it comes to cellphones I think sattelite phones will replace standard tower phones in the next 10 to 15 years in the U.S. 30 worldwide.

Broadband will be available everywhere in around 15 years.

That's my take on it.

[Descenterace]

Originally posted by Mongoose
for God's sake, is it even possible to buy a phone that's just a phone anymore, without all that other extraneous crap like cameras, video players, and the like?

I wonder this every damn time my phone glitches and I have to consider buying a new one.

It's holding out, though. It might survive another two or three years if I'm careful with it.

It's a Sony J70e, roughly four and a half years old.

[aldo_14]

Just wait until they find a health impact of cellphones.

[Osiri]

There is no health impact for cell phones.  

Yes, my head will be fine less than a mm from this radio transmitter 9 hours a day.

[Kosh]

The US is surprisingly behind the rest of the industrialized world when it comes to cell phone and broadband usage/availability.

[Grey Wolf]

We're far less concentrated, so broadband is a lot slower spreading.

[Kosh]

Then why is it that even in the cities broadband is slow by other nations standards and people are charged rediculously high prices for it?

[Grey Wolf]

American cable companies are bastards, and the majority of the wires are ancient.

Next question?

[Fury]

I have never owned a mobile phone and I have no plans to buy one. Why? Because mobile phones do not get along with hearing machines.

Yes, my hearing is severely impaired. So far I have relied on wired phones with a speaker and even that is far from being good, especially when the other person is one of those whispering types, which is damn annoying.

[Osiri]

Okay, it lost my last reply.  

To the cable company comment:

Our cable companies know we have the money and will pay for the service even if it is substandard.  Why spend money on a costly replacement of those cables now when you can repair them until they are degraded beyond repair.  At that point you can replace them with better technology than you have now.

It sucks for the customers but is cost effective for the cable company.

[Sandwich]

Originally posted by Mr. Fury
I have never owned a mobile phone and I have no plans to buy one. Why? Because mobile phones do not get along with hearing machines.

Yes, my hearing is severely impaired. So far I have relied on wired phones with a speaker and even that is far from being good, especially when the other person is one of those whispering types, which is damn annoying.

Really? I never noticed a problem on the forums...

Seriously, though, there are plenty of phones with built-in speakerphone capabilities.


Anyway, VoIP + WiMAX + some tremendous unknown future advancement in battery life/capacity = the death of mobile phones.

I'm on my... 6th cellphone since 1997 right now. I've had a Motorolla, a Nokia, a Samsung, an LG, and 2 Sony Ericssons. I like Sony Ericsson the best.

[CP5670]

I have some Samsung model that came as part of the service package. It does the job. I use it so infrequently though that a single charge lasts for a full college semester (15 weeks) for me.

[Fury]

Originally posted by Sandwich
Seriously, though, there are plenty of phones with built-in speakerphone capabilities.
 

Think a little about convenience, would it be convenient to keep the speaker on at all times when you make a call or someone calls you, regardless of where you might happen to be at the time? Besides, there are usually a lot of background noise outside of your home (public places) so that negates speakers effectiveness a lot. It would make little sense to keep the speaker on and loud in public places where everyone can hear your conversation. And built-in speakers in mobile phones are usually poor quality.

[ShadowWolf_IH]

the one i find fascinating rictor...is roads.....think about what we have done with paved roads in the last 100 years.  that's of road for only 100 years, and to think they did it all with 3 supervisors watching 1 guy work.

and now we go to 20 years ago...when one of the IBM big wigs asked why anyone would want a computer in thier home.....

now let's see some real scary progress....remember the furby?  that child's toy had more raw computing power than the lunar lander did.  My god, we left a furby in charge of getting our men to the moon and back.

[Osiri]

lol furby loves you