Author Topic: Pascal's Wager  (Read 8082 times)

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Offline WeatherOp

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hmmmmm... silence.....

Yep, boring.

Can we set something on fire now?
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Offline Kazan

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hey weatherop..

Re: your signature

A: It's a well-known logical argument why you should believe in God, even if there's a strong chance that it might not be true. Simply put, the argument is that you should believe in God just because there's a chance that you might go to heaven and avoid hell.

The argument was first formally put forth by Blaise Pascal, a philosopher and mathematician in the 17th century. A very good mathematician, in fact, to whom we owe several interesting formulas. There's also a programming language named after him.

Pascal's wager, in a nutshell, is this. No one knows for certain whether God exists. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. It's a gamble whether you believe in him or not. So let's treat it like a gamble, says Pascal, and look at the odds.

He described the payoff of this gamble like so. If you choose to believe in God, and you happen to be right, then the reward is infinity. Eternal bliss in heaven. However, if you are wrong, then you lose nothing at all. On the other hand, if you choose not to believe in God, and you're right, you GAIN nothing (in either of the previous two cases, you just die and that's the end). But if you are wrong, your payoff is negative infinity. Eternal suffering in hell.

Now here's the main thrust of the wager. Since the chance of God existing is unknown, but the payoff/punishment scheme is infinitely in favor of believing in God, just on the small chance that he might exist, you'd better believe. It's the only wager that makes sense.

Okay, that's Pascal's wager, now here are our reasons for not agreeing with it.

Reason 1: In the case where God does not exist, there really is a clear advantage to not believing. In other words, the payoff is not zero. For one thing, if you go through life believing a lie, that is a bad thing in itself. Besides that, there is more to being a believer than just saying "Okay, I believe now" and getting on with your life. Serious believers spend a lot of their time in church, and contribute a lot of money as well. There's a reason why some towns have very affluent looking buildings for churches, and why large and elaborate cathedrals are possible: they're funded by folks who donate 1/10th of their income throughout their lives to tithing. This is surely quite a waste if the object of worship isn't real. That's to say nothing of the persecution of other groups that's been instigated in the name of God throughout the ages.

Reason 2: Even if you buy into Pascal's wager and decide you should believe, that doesn't give any basis for choosing which religion to believe in. Fundamentalists often use the wager to prove that you should be a Fundamentalist, but of course, Pascal was Catholic and was using it to prove you should be a Catholic! This just highlights the whole problem of which religion is the right one. Since many Fundamentalists believe that Catholics are going to go to hell, Pascal's not much better off than an unbeliever. We don't know if the Jews are correct, or perhaps the Muslims, or if reincarnation is right... or worse, if there's a perverse God who only lets atheists into heaven! It's not impossible. For all we know, maybe God exists but he doesn't care at all whether people believe in him.

Reason 3: If you can accept Pascal's wager as a realistic reason to believe, that leads you to a point where you have no choice but to believe just about everything on the same grounds. Maybe if you don't own a complete library of Seinfeld episodes, you'll go to hell! Why not? You don't know. Maybe you have to send $10 a week to the Atheist Community of Austin for life. Hey, what's a measly ten bucks if it will save you from eternal hellfire? Or maybe God really likes nude mud wrestling and he will punish those who do not partake of His gift.

Does all this sound utterly silly to you? Good! That's probably because you know that you should only believe things which have some sort of clear evidence favoring them. You don't believe just any old preposterous claim about UFO's, pyramid shaped get-rich-quick schemes, or magic pixies just because somebody tells you they're true and because there's a chance you might be wrong. You have a brain—use it!

Further reading: "Pascal's Sucker Bet" by "Reverend" Jim Huger

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Offline Mefustae

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hey weatherop..

Re: your signature

*Snip*
Nice one, mate. Been meaning to set him straight about that part of his sig, but never found an opportunity to bring it up. :yes:

 
Ok, let's look at reason 1:  If God isn't real, and you do believe in Him, ok, you get laughed at a little at best, killed for it at worst, and you lose 1/10 of all you earn if you're dutiful enough to tithe.  I'd STILL rather place that on the betting table than bet the other way and suffer for eternity because I was too afraid of believing a lie to actually consider the truth.

Reason 2 can be dealt with once atheism is eradicated.
Could we with ink the ocean fill, and were the skies of parchment made
Were every stalk on earth a quill, and every man a scribe by trade
To write the love of God above, would drain the ocean dry
Nor could the scroll contain the whole, though stretched from sky to sky!

 

Offline Mefustae

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Ok, let's look at reason 1:  If God isn't real, and you do believe in Him, ok, you get laughed at a little at best, killed for it at worst, and you lose 1/10 of all you earn if you're dutiful enough to tithe.  I'd STILL rather place that on the betting table than bet the other way and suffer for eternity because I was too afraid of believing a lie to actually consider the truth.

Reason 2 can be dealt with once atheism is eradicated.
Reason 1 is enough to demonstrate the inaccuracy of the argument. Reason 2 has nothing to do with atheism and everything to do with the fact that humanity has seen a different creation myth or religious doctrine for almost every civilization that has risen and fallen in the past 14,000 year. Therefore, the 'wager' is invalidated as it attempts to create a binary choice in a realm where the choice is infinite.

Honestly, give it up. It was a flawed theory to begin with.

 

Offline Janos

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Ahh, the classic fire insurance faith.
lol wtf

 

Offline WeatherOp

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hey weatherop..

Re: your signature



Quote
Pascal's wager, in a nutshell, is this. No one knows for certain whether God exists. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. It's a gamble whether you believe in him or not. So let's treat it like a gamble, says Pascal, and look at the odds.

He described the payoff of this gamble like so. If you choose to believe in God, and you happen to be right, then the reward is infinity. Eternal bliss in heaven. However, if you are wrong, then you lose nothing at all. On the other hand, if you choose not to believe in God, and you're right, you GAIN nothing (in either of the previous two cases, you just die and that's the end). But if you are wrong, your payoff is negative infinity. Eternal suffering in hell.

Now here's the main thrust of the wager. Since the chance of God existing is unknown, but the payoff/punishment scheme is infinitely in favor of believing in God, just on the small chance that he might exist, you'd better believe. It's the only wager that makes sense.

Okay, that's Pascal's wager, now here are our reasons for not agreeing with it.

Reason 1: In the case where God does not exist, there really is a clear advantage to not believing. In other words, the payoff is not zero. For one thing, if you go through life believing a lie, that is a bad thing in itself. Besides that, there is more to being a believer than just saying "Okay, I believe now" and getting on with your life. Serious believers spend a lot of their time in church, and contribute a lot of money as well. There's a reason why some towns have very affluent looking buildings for churches, and why large and elaborate cathedrals are possible: they're funded by folks who donate 1/10th of their income throughout their lives to tithing. This is surely quite a waste if the object of worship isn't real. That's to say nothing of the persecution of other groups that's been instigated in the name of God throughout the ages.

All the eye of the beholder my friend, or in the other case, ignorance is bliss.  ;)

See if I believe in God and he doesn't exist, and we both die, who will ever disprove me? Secondly, since I believe in God, I believe that I should go to church, you feel that you don't need too. Even if God doesn't exist, I am still doing something that I feel I should do, and thus stopping would really put a hamper on my life, so it would be counter-productive. So the advantage is moot.

Advantage: Pascal's Bet

Quote
Reason 2: Even if you buy into Pascal's wager and decide you should believe, that doesn't give any basis for choosing which religion to believe in. Fundamentalists often use the wager to prove that you should be a Fundamentalist, but of course, Pascal was Catholic and was using it to prove you should be a Catholic! This just highlights the whole problem of which religion is the right one. Since many Fundamentalists believe that Catholics are going to go to hell, Pascal's not much better off than an unbeliever. We don't know if the Jews are correct, or perhaps the Muslims, or if reincarnation is right... or worse, if there's a perverse God who only lets atheists into heaven! It's not impossible. For all we know, maybe God exists but he doesn't care at all whether people believe in him.

Who cares what other fundamentalist think? Lots of republicans believe in man-made global warming, I don't, does that mean I am not a republican? I can say with a fact that not all catholics will go to hell, as I can say that not all Baptists will go to heaven.

Another god existing, if I am crazy, it's possible, but I haven't got a call from Buddha, Allah or Osiris. So, I'll stick with the one that called me. Who knows I maybe crazy, but hey no one can ever prove me wrong to my face.  ;)

Advantage: Pascal's Bet

Seriously, I expected something quite a bit better from you Kazan, I think your rusty.  ;)


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Offline Kosh

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Quote
Another god existing, if I am crazy, it's possible, but I haven't got a call from Buddha, Allah or Osiris. So, I'll stick with the one that called me.


So god called you on your telephone?
"The reason for this is that the original Fortran got so convoluted and extensive (10's of millions of lines of code) that no-one can actually figure out how it works, there's a massive project going on to decode the original Fortran and write a more modern system, but until then, the UK communication network is actually relying heavily on 35 year old Fortran that nobody understands." - Flipside

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Offline Mefustae

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Who cares what other fundamentalist think? Lots of republicans believe in man-made global warming, I don't, does that mean I am not a republican? I can say with a fact that not all catholics will go to hell, as I can say that not all Baptists will go to heaven.
But then you're getting back into blind faith, which completely contradicts Pascal's theory! Pascal was attempting to use logic in demonstrating that to believe in God is the "best bet", and he succeeds. However, he doesn't take the other variables - ie. other religions, sects, etc. - into account, and therefore his logic if flawed. Simple as that. As a logical argument, Pascal's Wager is inherently illogical.

Another god existing, if I am crazy, it's possible, but I haven't got a call from Buddha, Allah or Osiris. So, I'll stick with the one that called me. Who knows I maybe crazy, but hey no one can ever prove me wrong to my face.  ;)
Okay. So you've been receiving communications from the Almighty. I believe the technical term is 'psychosis', and I suggest you look it up before you try to base a belief system on it. :)

 

Offline WeatherOp

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Another god existing, if I am crazy, it's possible, but I haven't got a call from Buddha, Allah or Osiris. So, I'll stick with the one that called me. Who knows I maybe crazy, but hey no one can ever prove me wrong to my face.  ;)
Okay. So you've been receiving communications from the Almighty. I believe the technical term is 'psychosis', and I suggest you look it up before you try to base a belief system on it. :)

If I'm crazy, I'm just crazy, and likely too crazy to try to fix it. :p

And if I'm out of reality, the question is what is reality.

Quote
Another god existing, if I am crazy, it's possible, but I haven't got a call from Buddha, Allah or Osiris. So, I'll stick with the one that called me.


So god called you on your telephone?

That he did, pretty cool, eh?  :D
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Offline Bobboau

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damnit I totally had them cornered on irriducable complexity :(
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Offline Bobboau

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Quote
Another god existing, if I am crazy, it's possible, but I haven't got a call from Buddha, Allah or Osiris. So, I'll stick with the one that called me.


So god called you on your telephone?

That he did, pretty cool, eh?  :D

*69 him!
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DEUTERONOMY 22:11
Thou shalt not wear a garment of diverse sorts, [as] of woollen and linen together

 

Offline Kosh

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Quote
That he did, pretty cool, eh?  Big grin

I want to know two things:

1.) how much did it cost?

2.) Where to get it?
"The reason for this is that the original Fortran got so convoluted and extensive (10's of millions of lines of code) that no-one can actually figure out how it works, there's a massive project going on to decode the original Fortran and write a more modern system, but until then, the UK communication network is actually relying heavily on 35 year old Fortran that nobody understands." - Flipside

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Offline Ford Prefect

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1.) It was worth it whatever it was.

2.) Y'know... that rest stop on I-95?

Wait, I'm sorry are we talking about god or a glory hole? Or is god working the glory hole?
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Offline Kazan

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i'm not rusty - i managed to stimulate discussion without being inflamatory.  however Goat's post was simply offensive.

and as for just using a copy+paste instead of formulating my own arguments...

(dammit can't find the image)

"Your well thought out arguments... they have fallen on deaf ears."
« Last Edit: January 21, 2008, 10:46:51 pm by Kazan »
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Offline Stealth

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i've got your proof of evolution right here in my pants...

 

Offline Mefustae

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i've got your proof of evolution right here in my pants...
Has it been peer reviewed?

 
i'm not rusty - i managed to stimulate discussion without being inflamatory.  however Goat's post was simply offensive

Which one?  That was never my intention.
Could we with ink the ocean fill, and were the skies of parchment made
Were every stalk on earth a quill, and every man a scribe by trade
To write the love of God above, would drain the ocean dry
Nor could the scroll contain the whole, though stretched from sky to sky!

 

Offline Bobboau

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so anyone still holding to the irreducible complexity BS?
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DEUTERONOMY 22:11
Thou shalt not wear a garment of diverse sorts, [as] of woollen and linen together

 

Offline karajorma

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I'm splitting the Pascal's Wager stuff. Congratulations Kazan on doing what you do so well and giving fundamentalist Christians a way out when we had them cornered on something.
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