Overall, based on the types and numbers of ships and weapons about to come into service on the Terran side, and absent Lieutenant McCarthy to give the Vasudans a leg up in their researches (as he was essentially triggered by the Shivans), and the fact that the GTA has just managed to partially succeed in Operation Thresher and has a strong foothold on Vasuda's doorstep, I would say that the Vasudans are literally months away from a serious defeat, if not losing the war.
Because assume the GTA got the Herc, Medusa, Ursa, and various primaries and non-Interceptor missiles and bombs into service, even if these ships don't have shields, and perhaps a few months more down the line fighter intersystem drives, perhaps not.
Either way, the risk of the GTA punching enough ships through the Vasuda-Antares node blockade to drop a few Harbinger bombs on Vasuda Prime from orbit has increased exponentially. And this is something they were apparently willing to do.
Like as not, Vasuda Prime was going to take it on the chin from somebody. The only question was whether it would be 13 hours of bombardment by the Lucifer, or 1 hour of bombardment by a GTA Ursa squadron.