[Bobboau]

Wonder what happened to that system we developed to shoot down incoming arty.  Since the initial test was successful there has been no word of it anywhere that I've seen.  If development was continued in secret this would be the perfect time for it's deployment (assuming it's not there already).  The farther a round flies the easier it is to track and shoot.

that can handle one or two lone artillery shells, NK has thousands of them and they'll all be coming at once.

[Dilmah G]

Hmm, the South have been hell bent on keeping the cease fire since it was placed into effect. The warship incident earlier was probably a bigger deal than this, militarily, and the South kept their cool.

Also, I believe the terms of the ceasefire means that if the war goes hot again, we'll be forced to get involved for a second time.

That passage in the article about the North not getting the desired response is undoubtedly correct.

Also, I believe there's an extremely high rate of defection among the North's forces, or at least the Air Force. (Jeez, I wonder why?) Their flying hours are literally less than ten a year, from memory.

I think those in the higher echelons of the North's military know that they really don't have the training nor the purple coordination necessary to sustain a war against what is undoubtedly going to be an alliance of Western nations, keeping within the terms of the ceasefire at the very least.

I hope for the sake of all involved that the Chinese can talk the North out of whatever they're playing at here. We all know how bloody land wars in Asia turn out to be.

[IceFire]

Hmm, the South have been hell bent on keeping the cease fire since it was placed into effect. The warship incident earlier was probably a bigger deal than this, militarily, and the South kept their cool.

Also, I believe the terms of the ceasefire means that if the war goes hot again, we'll be forced to get involved for a second time.

That passage in the article about the North not getting the desired response is undoubtedly correct.

Also, I believe there's an extremely high rate of defection among the North's forces, or at least the Air Force. (Jeez, I wonder why?) Their flying hours are literally less than ten a year, from memory.

I think those in the higher echelons of the North's military know that they really don't have the training nor the purple coordination necessary to sustain a war against what is undoubtedly going to be an alliance of Western nations, keeping within the terms of the ceasefire at the very least.

I hope for the sake of all involved that the Chinese can talk the North out of whatever they're playing at here. We all know how bloody land wars in Asia turn out to be.

The key really is China and it depends on what their stance on this is going to be. They have taken the middle route but I honestly doubt that they see North Korea now like they did in 1950 when they supported the North. NK appears to be more of a regional annoyance and while the North is one of China's trading partners, I can't help but think that their efforts to expand their trade around Africa and elsewhere means trading with the North is probably much less important.

If this does go hot... and it's difficult to say right now... This will be very nasty. It'll be quite a bit different than anything fought in the last 20 years.

[Dilmah G]

Yeah, I'm sure they're smart enough to see them as a basket case rather than a serious force in that region with regards to this kind of activity.

I wonder how on Earth we're planning to carry out a war in that region if it does go off. They're probably redrawing plans and contingencies as we speak. The real issue is actually pushing into N.K I believe (as well as protecting S.K.), if they mobilize their entire force including reservists, I believe they'll have the largest military in the world, and the system of organization around towns and that mean that urban combat is going to be very stressful.

[If this does go hot... and it's difficult to say right now... This will be very nasty. It'll be quite a bit different than anything fought in the last 20 years.

This is definitely true. At least it'll be closer to the wars we've trained for.

[Scotty]

if they mobilize their entire force including reservists, I believe they'll have the largest military in the world, and the system of organization around towns and that mean that urban combat is going to be very stressful.

This means absolutely bollocks.  In 1990/91, Iraq had the third largest military in the world.  It lasted less than a month, and inflicted less than inconsequential casualties in that time.

[General Battuta]

if they mobilize their entire force including reservists, I believe they'll have the largest military in the world, and the system of organization around towns and that mean that urban combat is going to be very stressful.

This means absolutely bollocks.  In 1990/91, Iraq had the third largest military in the world.  It lasted less than a month, and inflicted less than inconsequential casualties in that time.

Ignoring the second half of the sentence, are we?

[Scotty]

Urban combat is always stressful, regardless of enemy proficiency.  I'm not going to dispute that.

[Dilmah G]

Although I wouldn't have put it like that, the second half of the sentence is what the real implication of having that many serving blokes is.

From memory, their reserve infantry system is organised around towns, with units of company and platoon size centred around every town, drawing its strength from the town's inhabitants.

This can make it a little easier to manage logistics within the N.K. military, with supplies and such being carted around clean roads (private vehicle usage is outlawed I believe) to towns, rather than a barracks in the middle of nowhere. This makes urban combat a little more interesting, I'd envisage, since you're now fighting guys who are literally protecting their families, and know the area very well.

And our history of urban combat in Asia isn't exactly great to start with.

[Mars]

The Japanese had also trained civilians extensively in urban combat. Unilateral surrender prevented any nastiness, and it didn't look like they would surrender either.

[SpardaSon21]

We had to nuke the Japanese to get that surrender.  Do you want us to nuke NK as well and definitely piss off the Chinese and potentially Iran?

[Thaeris]

We had to nuke the Japanese to get that surrender.  Do you want us to nuke NK as well and definitely piss off the Chinese...

Indeed a problem.

...and potentially Iran?

Lol.

 

[IceFire]

The Japanese had also trained civilians extensively in urban combat. Unilateral surrender prevented any nastiness, and it didn't look like they would surrender either.

Arguably that surrender was after years (almost a decade for the Japanese) of continual combat of which the last three and a half years had gone from bad to worse. And in the last year nearly every major city and production center was subject to heavy strategic bombing. Most of it firebombing which was particularly devastating to the Japanese cities. Not sure if the same scenario applies just yet...

[Bobboau]

definitely piss off the Chinese and potentially Iran?

that last part is almost worth the first part.

[Kolgena]

they'll need some additional pylons for those though

Slayer_BoxeR is a South Korean general now. NK is screwed, no matter what happens.

/idiocy

I'm really just waiting on China's response right now. I don't see them giving NK solid support if Kimmy Jong decides to play attention whore again, but they might do something nearly as aggravating to the West.

[StarSlayer]

Yeah let's hope nothing happens.  For one thing I'd imagine we'd need to institute a draft.  Furthermore North Koreans are brain washed dupes.  More then likely we will need to kill them in droves because they've been conditioned and indoctrinated all their lives.  It's one thing killing someone who's made a choice, it's another when they simply don't know any better because they live in a closed off society and they've been taught the ROK and America are the Great Super Evil and Kim Jong the Dear Leader.

It doesn't change the strategic/tactical reality that we will need to curb stomp them hard if it comes to war, but still it'll be a damn shame because they aren't necessarily the evil or anything, just victims of the ****nuckles in charge.  Nuking the hell out of nation where most of the population's only crime was being born in the ****hole of the world ain't exactly going to be something we should feel good about.

[Kolgena]

Then again, rarely are people involved in wars actually evil. Even if they are, they're usually few in number and in the upper ranks. That's part of why all wars suck so much.

[NGTM-1R]

I seriously doubt anyone is actually contemplating an invasion of the North as a reasonable response. The US certainly wouldn't support one. The only reasonable method of dealing with the DPRK military would be to let them cruise on into the DMZ and die there against prepared defenses and artillery. And the odds are good they'd actually try it and allow their mobile forces to be annihilated in the field. Once that's done, anything else they can do is of little interest.

The problem with this plan is that Seoul and Pusan are already poisoned, blasted, infectious, and possibly irradiated wastelands.

[Dilmah G]

Well they may be able to put NK's artillery to work by clearing the way for their mobile units in the DMZ.

The one big assumption being that Kim hasn't outlawed reading in the school curriculum.

[NGTM-1R]

Well they may be able to put NK's artillery to work by clearing the way for their mobile units in the DMZ.

The one big assumption being that Kim hasn't outlawed reading in the school curriculum.

Most of the tactical artillery isn't going to last that long. Long enough to make a really big mess, but it's old, it's not very mobile, and there are enough firefinder radars along the DMZ to give lethal doses of radiation to birds in flight. Either aircraft or counterbattery will get it all within a couple hours.

The DPRK's ballistic launchers could last for weeks, with another Great SCUD Hunt, but a lot of the big ones are rail-based rather than road mobile, so that will at least limit the threat to Japan and Guam.

[Dilmah G]

Fair enough.

The North gain the upper hand if they force the Allies to invade, and the smarter brethren in the Northern military probably know it over all the bull**** they would've been fed. I wouldn't be surprised if they attempt to force the allies across the DMZ.

Of course they could try it, the Allies would see through it, and it could turn into a Phoney War for a while.

EDIT: In any case, I think the South would try to avoid initiating the conflict for as long as they can.