[Herra Tohtori]

Ok, so.

There was a relatively peaceful uprising and revolution in Tunisia, then more violent and lengthy protests in Egypt culminating in the president's withdrawal from his position and handing the power (supposedly temporarily) to a military junta leadership. There's also been some unrest in Bahrain, but not to critical or unstabilizing scale yet, I think.

Now it seems Libya is about to undergo something similar, but it's a lot more bloody. There's been a lot of rioting and unlike in Tunisia or Egypt, the armed forces have engaged the rioters causing numerous casualties in dead and wounded. The country's internet is partially shut down, cell phone network has been shut down, international press have been barred from entering the country and even Al-Jazeera's news broadcast has been blocked.

There are estimations that the place is approaching a full scale civil war. According to unconfirmed rumours, the cities of Benghazi and al-Bayda are no longer under control of the government troops. There are also rumours of the government having hired mercenaries to quell the uprising.

The capital Tripoli has remained so far calm.


So, what we have here is something much more violent than Tunisia or Egypt happening. I don't think there's any chance of the Libyan people being allowed to oust Gaddafi. The country is a full-blown dictatorship, much worse so than Mubarak's Egypt. The armed forces appear to have no qualms over killing their own citizens, and there sure as hell isn't any chance of Gaddafi stepping down voluntarily.

There are three possible routes I can see this going.

The goverment troops manage to put down the uprising at an early stage, basically by killing everyone involved, thus scaring the people into staying subservient.

The former option fails, causing a full-blown civil war which could go either way: Either Gaddafi wins and remains in power, or the insurgency manages to grow large enough that he has to flee the country.

Regardless of the outcome here, this'll be bloody and horrifying time for the Libyans.



And we haven't even seen the follow-throughs in Tunisia and Egypt - those countries could still get worse than before, instead of better.


Of course, my definition of better is a secular democracy, rather than a theocracy. Unfortunately, both Tunisia and Egypt had been ruled by secular de facto dictators, thus creating lot of support for the polar opposition which just happens to be religious groups, and most of the time a religious group has gained secular power it's turned out just as autocratic and oppressing as any military dictatorships.

I'm still hoping for Egypt and Tunisia to gain a secular government pledged to secure the liberties for their people, but we'll see how that goes...


But regardless of what happens in Egypt and Tunisia, Libyan situation seems quite different already, mostly because the armed forces appear to be firmly on Gaddafi's side.

Links:

BBC
CNN

YLE, for the Finnish readers


Discuss.

[Sololop]

I wish there was something we could do. But I extremely doubt that. Also, aren't protests occurring in something like 15+ countries across the mid-east and Africa? It's looking to be quite the furball over there.

[Herra Tohtori]

I wish there was something we could do. But I extremely doubt that.

My estimation is that any intervention by external forces would not end well. These things need to play out internally, that's the only way the abused nationals of those countries will ever gain any sense of security and sovereignty - even a foreign peacekeeping organization would probably just be seen as either enforcers of the old regime, or invaders.

Also, aren't protests occurring in something like 15+ countries across the mid-east and Africa? It's looking to be quite the furball over there.

Yes. Let it just be said that we are living in interesting times. Libya is just the third in row where the **** is really hitting the fan. I expect there'll be others down the line, but it's almost impossible to make accurate predictions on the situation - it's pretty chaotic right now.

If I were to make some speculation, though, I would say a lot depends on how the Libyan situation proceeds. Escalation of the unrest could spark similar movements in the more autocratic countries like Iran, while if the protests were violently and efficiently snuffed out of existence, it could make people in other countries very hesitant of trying anything.

Right now I am following the situation in Bahrain and Iran fairly closely, in addition to Tunisia, Egypt and now Libya. Who knows what's next. Saudi-Arabia?

[Sarafan]

There are three possible routes I can see this going.

Ok, what is the third route? You only said two.

[Herra Tohtori]

There are three possible routes I can see this going.

Ok, what is the third route? You only said two.

The former option fails, causing a full-blown civil war which could go either way: A: Either Gaddafi wins and remains in power, or B: the insurgency manages to grow large enough that he has to flee the country.

 

Maybe the formatting wasn't ideal.

[NGTM-1R]

Mr. Q/K/G depending on how you spell his name has proved extremely adept at holding onto power in the face of adversity. He's also a bit more crazy then the average, however. The leaders of Yemen were merely corrupt, Egypt's were hardliners but ultimately rational. I'm not sure that can be relied on here considering Libya's history of being North Korea Lite.

In any case, I think it likely someone is going to have sink the Libyan Navy again when foreign interference is blamed. If I were Southern Italian or Scilian I'd be getting a bit worried.

[Scotty]

I wish there was something we could do. But I extremely doubt that. Also, aren't protests occurring in something like 15+ countries across the mid-east and Africa? It's looking to be quite the furball over there.

Fourteen in the last month, as of this morning (arranged in order by east to west):
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt
Sudan/South Sudan
Syria
Jordan
Saudi Arabia
Yemen
Bahrain
Iraq
Kuwait
Iran

[Mongoose]

I've seen various situations in the past compared to the description of a "stand-alone complex" from the Ghost in the Shell anime series, but this whole progression of protest movements is a better fit for it than I've ever seen.  Who knows how all of these chips are going to fall...

[BengalTiger]

I wish there was something we could do. But I extremely doubt that. Also, aren't protests occurring in something like 15+ countries across the mid-east and Africa? It's looking to be quite the furball over there.

Fourteen in the last month, as of this morning (arranged in order by east west to west east):
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt
Sudan/South Sudan
Syria
Jordan
Saudi Arabia
Yemen
Bahrain
Iraq
Kuwait
Iran

Fixed.

[Herra Tohtori]

Moar news

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12517327

She told the BBC that at least 45 bodies and 900 wounded had been brought to just one hospital on Saturday, describing the scene as a "massacre".

Human Rights Watch says at least 173 people have been killed in Libya since demonstrations began on Wednesday.

Benghazi has been a leading focus of protests against Col Gaddafi's rule.

Libya is one of several countries in the region to have seen pro-democracy campaigns since the fall of long-time Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January. Egypt's Hosni Mubarak was forced from power on 11 February.

BBC Middle East correspondent Jon Leyne says the current unrest in Libya is the most serious challenge to Col Muammar Gaddafi in his four decades in power.

Reports are difficult to verify as the Libyan authorities have imposed severe media restrictions.

The Benghazi doctor told the BBC that at least 45 bodies and 900 injured people had been brought to Jala hospital - most of them with gunshot wounds.

"Ninety percent of these gunshot wounds [were] mainly in the head, the neck, the chest, mainly in the heart," she said.

She added that she has been in contact with other Benghazi hospitals, which she says were overwhelmed by casualties and have not been able to count the dead.

 

[StarSlayer]

If they manage to flip the Colonel then I'd imagine it would uncork the entire region.  Tunisia and Egypt had relatively peaceful transitions without to much governmental opposition, ie the army murdering people in job lots.  If the Libyans can oust Gaddafi in spite of military opposition then I think it opens the door to a lot of other nations in the area, Iran for example.

[S-99]

So, what we have here is something much more violent than Tunisia or Egypt happening. I don't think there's any chance of the Libyan people being allowed to oust Gaddafi. The country is a full-blown dictatorship, much worse so than Mubarak's Egypt. The armed forces appear to have no qualms over killing their own citizens, and there sure as hell isn't any chance of Gaddafi stepping down voluntarily.

I find soldiers doing this should no longer be considered soldiers/military/etc. Libyan military is a bunch of **** heads. They act like nothing more than an automated armed branch of their government. Which says a lot about how smart everyone in the libyan military apparently is.

How much indoctrination and brain washing did it take to get the libyan military to treat it's own country's people as far from it to be able to do this?

[NGTM-1R]

There are reports that units of the Libyan Army have joined the protesters and/or engaged units of Gadhafi's "Praetorian Guard", but they're pretty vague still. There are also reports that African mercenaries have been brought in en masse to contain the protests violently.

Civil war it is, I guess.

[Bobboau]

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/201122131439291589.html

"Members of an army unit known as the "Thunderbolt" squad had brought wounded comrades to the hospital, he said. The soldiers said they had defected to the cause of the protesters and had fought and defeated Gaddafi's elite guards."

"There were also reports of protesters heading to Gaddafi's compound in the city of Al-Zawia near Tripoli, with the intention of burning the building down."

yeah, this is going to be great, we've had to relatively peaceful revolts, and Libya was one of the countries who decided to retaliate with violence. if we get footage of Gaddafi's entrails getting dragged through the streets, I think that will send an awesome message to the other regimes in the region about the pros and cons of using force to suppress your population.

[Bobboau]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VbhUJ07DMIA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9irqq-sRyAs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_oWbEZkOAwM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5cGAEqZBGE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQmZjNYX3Dk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71l051bK-IE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4dlIouy24g

yeah I think the phrase 'civil war' is accurate.


you, know actually, I would not be surprised if Libya fell too before too long, within a week, it could happen.

[carbine7]

Anti-Aircraft guns against a crowd.....holy ****
I just don't see how you can justify that even in the most demented state of mind.

[Unknown Target]

Anti-Aircraft guns against a crowd.....holy ****
I just don't see how you can justify that even in the most demented state of mind.

Source?

[carbine7]

Third video. I can't be sure of exactly what he said. I may be wrong, but he mentioned AA guns around :25-:35, but he's so choked up it's hard to tell what he said.

[S-99]

There are reports that units of the Libyan Army have joined the protesters and/or engaged units of Gadhafi's "Praetorian Guard", but they're pretty vague still. There are also reports that African mercenaries have been brought in en masse to contain the protests violently.

Civil war it is, I guess.

AAAhhh good, some soldiers who know how to do more than just follow orders and use a brain to look at the whole situation. "Why exactly does my commander want me to kill the guy down the street selling fish? This is bogus ****!"

[Unknown Target]

 @carbine7; I would first like to see secondary confirmation of what he speaks ( I will also watch the video as soon as I can). I haven't heard anywhere else about that, other than one side is fighting against the other. It's too chaotic right now and we should remain calm so that when the relevant information does get out, we can make the best decision we can with it.

So while his testimony may be gripping, let's please confirm before we begin looking for the causes and what they may mean. Like you said, you can't see how they could justify that, even in the most demented state of mind.