[Black Wolf]

Yeah, the export ban is on the F22, but the F35 is the "Joint" Strike Fighter - it's being funded by multiple countries, specifically for export.

[achtung]

Why on Earth would Russia or China start a war with the United States in the foreseeable future? Russia may be on the up-and-coming, but they are still a decent way from being a challenge, and even further away from having a realistic reason for a war. China is perfectly satisfied with their economic position, they are more interested in money, and militarily, Taiwan.

Just a reminder of recent history:  South Ossetia.

There's good reason to believe that Russia wants to reclaim a few of the former Soviet republics and stop its direct neighbors from joining NATO.  NATO is willing to lock horns with Russia over such issues, so its not entirely beyond the realm of reality to see Russian and US forces fighting over territory in Europe.  Then you get into the tangle of allegiances in the Middle East, which is to say that every nation in the Middle East that Russia maintains positive relations with is one that nobody in the United States would be too sad to see topple.

Additionally, China has quite a wide variety of border disputes with nations that the United States recognizes as sovereign and independent of China.  I doubt very highly that the US Pacific Fleet would be allowed to stand idly by, should China get it in its head to stomp all over Taiwan.  Then there's the hornet's nest that is Korea that could indirectly draw the United States and China into direct confrontation.

It's kind of funny how the ideological component of the Cold War more or less ended, but the material and territorial disputes remain.  To say that there's no chance of a conflict between the United States and one of the regional powers of the eastern hemisphere is naive.

The trick with defense spending, therefore, is to reduce it to a reasonable level, without sacrificing the conventional deterrent effect of the United States' armed forces.  Completely wiping out our top-of-the-line fighters isn't the way to do that.  With the F-22 in the sky, Russia and/or China would have to enter into a conflict with the United States knowing that they are technologically incapable of gaining air superiority.  When the F-35 comes online, they would have to engage in conflict knowing that their ground assets will be vulnerable to attacks against which they would be unable to retaliate.

My suggestion would be to have a small cadre of these aircraft in reserve, ready to deploy as soon as a conflict erupts, while keeping on standby the ability to produce more, quickly, as necessary.  Is 187 F-22's a small cadre?  No, 187 is too much for a peacetime force or even a force engaged in the conflicts in which we're currently engaged.  We overdid it, but they're already paid for.  We spent the $300 million-a-piece to build those 187, so we either pay to maintain and use them, or we pay even more to mothball and decommission them.  It's pricey to keep technology out of the hands of others.

It's worth looking at what it takes to decommission an F-14, at this juncture.  Iran has a stable of F-14's, all rendered inoperable by the removal of or lack of maintanence to key components that Iran lacks the technology to replicate or replace.  In light of this, when an F-14 is in need of decommissioning, it needs to be kept secure from its last flight until the time it's scrapped.  Every electronic component needs to be accounted for, prior to scrapping.  Those components then need to be catalogued and their destruction confirmed or securely stored as spares for the remaining F-14's still in service.

All that, because we don't want one country that we don't particularly like getting their hands on F-14 parts.  With the F-22 and F-35, it's another story entirely, because we don't want any countries getting their hands on the technology used in those planes.  There's an export ban on these aircraft, so that our allies cannot yet buy them, nevermind our enemies.  Up and scrapping them is not as cheap a proposition as you may believe.

Incidentally, how the hell did I wind up on the right wing of this discussion?  I don't think I've ever found myself saying that someone wants to cut defense spending too much....

Yeah, wiping out defense spending is far from what I suggest. It's just clear, even using your F-22 production number as an example, that the defense budget is less about what is needed, and more about which districts politicians want "free" money sent to. We did not need that many, but it was really nice keeping those employed in the production process from being laid-off. Gotta buy up those votes y'know!

Wait, they also wanted to keep the lines running for F-35 production, didn't they? Sounds like an excuse to spend more money.

[Mongoose]

I don't care who spends what, I just want the chance to actually see an F-22 in person.  And since the local naval base is shutting down, there's not even an air show in the immediate vicinity where I might get that chance.

[Mars]

Careful, it might blow up on you . . .

[Grizzly]

I'd actually love to see a F-14 in action. Those wings...

[Kosh]

There's good reason to believe that Russia wants to reclaim a few of the former Soviet republics and stop its direct neighbors from joining NATO.  NATO is willing to lock horns with Russia over such issues, so its not entirely beyond the realm of reality to see Russian and US forces fighting over territory in Europe.  Then you get into the tangle of allegiances in the Middle East, which is to say that every nation in the Middle East that Russia maintains positive relations with is one that nobody in the United States would be too sad to see topple.

The Russian military is a mess, fell apart after the fall of the USSR and never came close to recovery. And to be fair there's a number of unsavory regimes in the mideast, the House of Saud being a prime example, that the US has positive relations with that no one in the world would be too sad to see go away.

Additionally, China has quite a wide variety of border disputes with nations that the United States recognizes as sovereign and independent of China.  I doubt very highly that the US Pacific Fleet would be allowed to stand idly by, should China get it in its head to stomp all over Taiwan.  Then there's the hornet's nest that is Korea that could indirectly draw the United States and China into direct confrontation.

Given the hopeless obsolescence of the majority of their military, the institutionalized incompetencies and the massive corruption it is highly unlikely they can win, or even force a stalemate if there was a direct confrontation.

With the F-22 in the sky, Russia and/or China would have to enter into a conflict with the United States knowing that they are technologically incapable of gaining air superiority.

Even with what we have today they are still incapable of gaining air superiority. Most of China's air force are Soviet designs from the 60's and most of Russia's air force was allowed to degrade so seriously that most of the fulcrums and flankers aren't even in working order anymore.

[Mefustae]

Indeed. I seem to recall reading estimates that stated Russia could only project not much more than a regiment, perhaps a small division, beyond their own borders with any expectation of effectiveness or even proper cohesion. Their military is in shambles when viewed as a modern force. Although I think Putin recently started moving towards widespread military investment to both create jobs and stop the deterioration of their armed forces as a whole.

[Mustang19]

Additionally, China has quite a wide variety of border disputes with nations that the United States recognizes as sovereign and independent of China.  I doubt very highly that the US Pacific Fleet would be allowed to stand idly by, should China get it in its head to stomp all over Taiwan.  Then there's the hornet's nest that is Korea that could indirectly draw the United States and China into direct confrontation.

Given the hopeless obsolescence of the majority of their military, the institutionalized incompetencies and the massive corruption it is highly unlikely they can win, or even force a stalemate if there was a direct confrontation.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the Chinese military. In terms of attacking corruption their government is doing better than India. Reducing corruption is very much a matter of economic development and authoritarian states like Singapore have managed to run a very efficient government since they began pulling the tax revenue to fund it. And although the PLA has done a poor job of producing skilled soldiers, China has enormous economic and manpower resources at its disposal if it ever needs them. Chinese steel production is over five times that of the United States. The PRC may have a small defense budget now, but it's industrial output is already sufficient to support a very powerful force when the time comes.

The main thing in the way of the reconquest of Taiwan is China's lack of naval power; the USN is about as powerful as the rest of the world's navies combined while the PRC lacks a fleet commensurate with the country's industry. The ROC is an island, and control of the nearby Pacific would be the decisive factor in a China/Taiwan conflict. It will be a long time before the People's Republic has the world's most powerful navy- but it will probably get there in the not too distant future.

With the F-22 in the sky, Russia and/or China would have to enter into a conflict with the United States knowing that they are technologically incapable of gaining air superiority.

Even with what we have today they are still incapable of gaining air superiority. Most of China's air force are Soviet designs from the 60's and most of Russia's air force was allowed to degrade so seriously that most of the fulcrums and flankers aren't even in working order anymore.

This is a valid point since China does not yet have a fifth generation fighter. By 2019 though they will likely have something. The J-20 will be a serious competitor to the JSF and PAK FA, but in terms of stealth and thrust-to-weight it is still no match for the Raptor. China is catching up- if nothing else, it's getting better at stealing- and judging from the development of similar Asian countries it will some day have a technological infrastructure comparable if not superior to that of the United States.

Of course China is too dependent on foreign trade to start a war now. But I could certainly see it acting more aggressively in a few decades.

[Grizzly]

I rather expect them to learn the lessons that the USA had to be taught the hard way (And still they don't get it...): Using force to chane, or even meddling, with the affairs with another country will either lead to the opposite of what you are trying to achieve (Iran) , or a lot of people dead without you having achieved anything (Vietnam). Most of the times, both.

They seem to have got it, with them stealthily taking over Africa by offering them business contracts without all the ethics Europeans usually attach to them.

[Kosh]

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the Chinese military. In terms of attacking corruption their government is doing better than India. Reducing corruption is very much a matter of economic development and authoritarian states like Singapore have managed to run a very efficient government since they began pulling the tax revenue to fund it. And although the PLA has done a poor job of producing skilled soldiers, China has enormous economic and manpower resources at its disposal if it ever needs them. Chinese steel production is over five times that of the United States. The PRC may have a small defense budget now, but it's industrial output is already sufficient to support a very powerful force when the time comes.

Except that this isn't 1914, throwing masses of poorly trained grunts at a targret isn't nearly as effective as it used to be. Like most other things about China it looks big and scary on the outside but when you look more closely the reality isn't quite what it appears.

One of the main factors driving corruption in the PLA is that it actually does have a variety of investments and business interests. The Louis Vitton bags speak for themselves.

This is a valid point since China does not yet have a fifth generation fighter. By 2019 though they will likely have something. The J-20 will be a serious competitor to the JSF and PAK FA, but in terms of stealth and thrust-to-weight it is still no match for the Raptor. China is catching up- if nothing else, it's getting better at stealing- and judging from the development of similar Asian countries it will some day have a technological infrastructure comparable if not superior to that of the United States.

Except that China does not have the innovative capability to produce a real technological infrastructure to support that. I seriously doubt the J-20 is going to be all that it is cracked up to be. As it stands the Pak-Fa is a much better F22 alternative.

[Grizzly]

Except that this isn't 1914 the Era of Napoleon, throwing masses of poorly trained grunts at a targret isn't nearly as effective as it used to be.

In 1914, that tactic did not work at all.

[Kosh]

Except that this isn't 1914 the Era of Napoleon, throwing masses of poorly trained grunts at a targret isn't nearly as effective as it used to be.

In 1914, that tactic did not work at all.

Didn't stop them from trying. The real lesson from Iraq was that when it comes to smashing up enemy militaries, numbers isn't usually what matters most. That being said where numbers does matter most is with an actual occupation.

[Mustang19]

What I'm saying is that China has the potential to raise a powerful military if it chose to, and it will only get stronger as time goes on. It has a gross national income 2/3rds of America's for a tax base, much stronger industry and immense manpower reserves. The main problems the PRC has is that, although its top-of-the-line equipment is comparable to America's, it spends much less in both absolute and relative terms on training and replacement of old equipment. Bring training, watchdogging and procurement and expenditures up to western levels and China would have a powerful military.

Except that China does not have the innovative capability to produce a real technological infrastructure to support that. I seriously doubt the J-20 is going to be all that it is cracked up to be. As it stands the Pak-Fa is a much better F22 alternative.

The PAK FA is not as stealthy as the F-22. It would be more accurate to say that the PAK FA and J-20 are in the same class; in any case the PRC could purchase PAK FA's once they become operational as well. The Russian fighter has somewhat better maneuverability compared to the J-20 but sensors and missile armament are comparable. Indeed the Russian R-73M Archer (which China uses) is superior to even the latest American dogfight missiles like the AIM-9X.

Except that this isn't 1914 the Era of Napoleon, throwing masses of poorly trained grunts at a targret isn't nearly as effective as it used to be.

In 1914, that tactic did not work at all.

Didn't stop them from trying. The real lesson from Iraq was that when it comes to smashing up enemy militaries, numbers isn't usually what matters most. That being said where numbers does matter most is with an actual occupation.

That isn't the best comparison. China has almost 400 modern fighter aircraft while Iraq had only about 30 MiG-29s. Russia has about 700 fourth generation fighters while Japan has around 300. This gives China the third or fourth most powerful air force in the world. Of course the USAF would beat any of them in a war but it wouldn't be a cake walk as all of these countries have a respectable stock of modern equipment.

[Kosh]

What I'm saying is that China has the potential to raise a powerful military if it chose to, and it will only get stronger as time goes on. It has a gross national income 2/3rds of America's for a tax base, much stronger industry and immense manpower reserves. The main problems the PRC has is that, although its top-of-the-line equipment is comparable to America's, it spends much less in both absolute and relative terms on training and replacement of old equipment. Bring training, watchdogging and procurement and expenditures up to western levels and China would have a powerful military.

Except that even if expenditures reach American levels in absolute terms a lot of it would be enitrely wasted. Watchdogging in China is a total nonstarter, mainly because Chinese institutions try extremely hard to be opaque (this isn't unique to government, in industry it is common practice to have multiple sets of ledgers with the real one for the bosses eyes only). Training is also less effective than it otherwise would be because of the rigid heirarchical model of their military reinforced by the rigid heiarchical model of their culture. Combined together this makes them extremely vulnerable to modern manuever warfare, but these are things that are likely never going to change because of a combination of arrogance and vested interests in the status quo (Louis Vitton anyone? ).

The PAK FA is not as stealthy as the F-22. It would be more accurate to say that the PAK FA and J-20 are in the same class; in any case the PRC could purchase PAK FA's once they become operational as well. The Russian fighter has somewhat better maneuverability compared to the J-20 but sensors and missile armament are comparable. Indeed the Russian R-73M Archer (which China uses) is superior to even the latest American dogfight missiles like the AIM-9X.

In fairness we don't really know exactly what the J20 is going to be capable of since it hasn't been tested in a meaningful manner (that we know of). Though I suspect most of its more advanced systems are going to be either imported or simply stolen. That China still wasn't able to build a competitive jet engine for their own J10 says a lot about their technology level.

That isn't the best comparison. China has almost 400 modern fighter aircraft while Iraq had only about 30 MiG-29s. Russia has about 700 fourth generation fighters while Japan has around 300. This gives China the third or fourth most powerful air force in the world. Of course the USAF would beat any of them in a war but it wouldn't be a cake walk as all of these countries have a respectable stock of modern equipment.

One thing I've been trying to find is a professional review of the J10 and how it measures up to Russian and USAF 4th generation.

[Mustang19]

Except that even if expenditures reach American levels in absolute terms a lot of it would be enitrely wasted. Watchdogging in China is a total nonstarter, mainly because Chinese institutions try extremely hard to be opaque (this isn't unique to government, in industry it is common practice to have multiple sets of ledgers with the real one for the bosses eyes only). Training is also less effective than it otherwise would be because of the rigid heirarchical model of their military reinforced by the rigid hierarchical model of their culture. Combined together this makes them extremely vulnerable to modern manuever warfare, but these are things that are likely never going to change because of a combination of arrogance and vested interests in the status quo (Louis Vitton anyone? ).

Corruption does hurt the Chinese military but the main problem is lack of training. Chinese jet pilots fly only 130 hours a year while Western pilots have 160-180 hours as an annual minimum and typically fly 500-1000 in a year. The PLAAF could have decent pilots if it had the funding. And hierarchical culture by no means degrades organizational effectiveness; all the Asian Tigers eventually developed effective governments and professional militaries.

In fairness we don't really know exactly what the J20 is going to be capable of since it hasn't been tested in a meaningful manner (that we know of). Though I suspect most of its more advanced systems are going to be either imported or simply stolen. That China still wasn't able to build a competitive jet engine for their own J10 says a lot about their technology level.

One thing I've been trying to find is a professional review of the J10 and how it measures up to Russian and USAF 4th generation.

I wouldn't focus so much on the engine as on the fact that they pretty much copied the entire design from the Israeli Lavi. I don't think there are any good sources on the J-10's relative capabilities on the internet, but it has a 90s era track while scan radar and can carry AA-11 and AA-12 equivalent missiles. I would say it's comparable to the other 4th generation fighters China has on hand like the Su-27. Nothing is known about it's ECM other than that it can carry external jamming pods of indigenous design.

Remember that the US has been pouring money into military R&D for the past 60 years; China is still believed to spend a mere few billion a year on military R&D. Nonetheless their military budget is increasing rapidly. They will catch up eventually and espionage just speeds this along.

[Grizzly]

But... will it be a threat? A weapon is only dangerous when someone decides to wield it.

China rather enjoys just taking over businesses all over the world and getting a grip on world politicis illuminati style.

[Suongadon]

But... will it be a threat? A weapon is only dangerous when someone decides to wield it.

China might not use them, but they're more than happy to take orders for their planes from any number of tinpot regimes. I don't have quite the same faith in Iran or Syria not coming to blows with the US or Israeli aircraft as with China.

[Mustang19]

But... will it be a threat? A weapon is only dangerous when someone decides to wield it.

China rather enjoys just taking over businesses all over the world and getting a grip on world politicis illuminati style.

Great power conflicts have been moot since the invention of nuclear weapons. But if someone ever invents some decent Star Wars tech the rules will be much different.

China's most immediate military goal is retaking Taiwan and I don't think rigging elections or buying up apartments has ever worked as a way to take over a country.

[Grizzly]

But... will it be a threat? A weapon is only dangerous when someone decides to wield it.

China rather enjoys just taking over businesses all over the world and getting a grip on world politicis illuminati style.

Great power conflicts have been moot since the invention of nuclear weapons. But if someone ever invents some decent Star Wars tech the rules will be much different.

China's most immediate military goal is retaking Taiwan and I don't think rigging elections or buying up apartments has ever worked as a way to take over a country.

Really? The corperations in the USA have way more power then the goverment. They don't need to control the elections, they just buy up all the parliament members and get their tax cuts.

[Mustang19]

It's hard to justify making tribute payments to China, though. Implementing pro-corporate policies is much more politically acceptable. By the way, the Chinese have tried to influence American politics in the past; they funded Clinton's legal defense fund in 1996. Wikipedia it.