Going back to the total war issue for a second, didn't the brief (or pre brief segment) for the mission defending Rheza station state that the GTVA had activated their total war contingencies? I didn't read that as '"we're gonna kick you in the balls just this once" I read that as "going forward, all rules are now off the table". See the Carthage battlegroup's raid on asteroid civilian stations in Pawns on a Board of Bone.
In answer to the question about what I would say if I were a political leader in the GTVA?
"We're winning"
Honestly, from the Tev perspective there's not a lot to be doubting on at the moment. keep in mind that in Act Three we see a very select set of actions by a very elite group of pilots. I felt like the GTVA was getting absolutely stomped while I was playing it, but then I took a step back. At the end of the day, I feel like Steele is in an even better position then he was in at the end of WiH.
Lopez was predictable and had thus ceased to be an asset. He traded her outdated (albeit still capable) destroyer for two more, and CO's that aren't as easily exploitable.
The Tev populace doesn't know **** about the Fedayeen, Nagari, the Vishnans, the Great Darkness, the Sekret Project, or anything else. In a cold hard fleet on fleet numbers game, Steele has the UEF by the balls. Now he's just prepping to close the vice.