[CT27]

http://www.hard-light.net/forums/index.php?topic=77920.0

^In that thread, many speculated on what the UEF's strategy should be from here on out.

On the other side of things...if you were Steele (or some other GTVA military person), how do you think the war should go from a GTVA strategic standpoint?  What would you do to win the war for them?


-One of the things I would do would be to try to get Vasudan military (warships) participation active in the war. 

[-Norbert-]

I'm not so sure about the Vasudans.
First off, they are a bit of a wildcard. They have their own mindset and have a few things in common with the UEF. There is always the possibility that they might sympatise a bit too much with them, if they enter the conflict. On top of that it puts them in a better position to find out the truth about the supposed betrayal by the UEF, and if that happens, the GTVA will have a really bad crisis on their hand.
Furthermore it sends the signal that the Terrans can't defeat the UEF on their own, which puts the whole "Only we can protect our species from the Shivans" thing in question. If they can't even defeat an enemy they called unfit to survive in the universe on their own, how are they supposed to save mankind from the destroyers?

If I was in the GTVA high command, I'd try to crush them with all the tactical manouvering that happened in WiH 1, but without the planetary bombing and assasinations. I'd want to show the whole universe that we can win because we are better and stronger and don't need dirty tricks to win. I'd also be far more carefull in my conduct towards the Vasudans, to show them they can trust us.
In other words I'd try to reign in Steele some. Leave him a free hand for tactical and strategic decisions, but make sure he doesn't have the authority to gamble with the Vasudans like he did.

What would also help, if possible, is making the people of the captured parts of Sol see things the GTVAs way. If they can convert them, they can be used to weaken the UEFs remaining fighting spirit even further, or they can be used to strengthen resolve in the homeworlds. If those at home who are against the war hear from a converted enemy how the GTVA is right to conduct this war, it could sway those critics and rally fresh support from the GTVA citizens. Of course it also carries the risk of letting an enemy agent through, so they have to be extra carefull.

[Dilmah G]

As a team member (testing role atm, though I haven't really reprised that one yet...too busy not being at school. I /will/ get onto it though, boys!), there's not a lot I can say, but I'll give my general opinion as a bare-bones kind of deal without getting too into specifics. Be advised though, I actually haven't properly touched Freespace in close to a year, with BP being the same. I'm just going off what I remember from my biased GTVA4EVA days and if something's changed or I've forgotten something, feel free to correct me.

- In what we've seen, the GTVA certainly slides towards a 'conventional warfare' approach to things, but rarely in history has a side defending its home territory bowed to brute force. I know this is simplified, but we're seeing this in the Middle East. Though the Iraqi regime prior to the invasion was toppled, there exists an insurgency that's going to take some time to be quelled, if at all. Bottom line being that people don't like being invaded, and they ****in' hate being occupied. As ya' do. The only successful solution to any conflict between two forces of the nature of the GTVA and the UEF, who harbour differing ideologies (some would say opposing), is a diplomatic one, whether both sides realise it or not. The alternative to this, is annihilation.

- The fact that this war is including an ever growing insurgency is a factor to be watched. The UEF has the means to play the dirty game back on the other side of the portal.

- From the tactical point of view, on a per engagement basis, the combat doctrines differ rather significantly, as we've seen from the released material on the BP site. The GTVA requires a bit of a tactical rethink regarding countering a force well versed in combined arms approach. This change must be effected from both sides of the GTVA's tactical pyramid, in terms of the aircraft employed and the tactics used.

There are a few ways to counter a combined arms approach used by the UEF, and the GTVA has a number of options, should it be willing to retool as an entire force to fight the UEF. The presence of the Shivans, however, present the GTVA's greatest flaw. The GTVA cannot retool itself in much the same way as the forces of both the UK and the US are currently doing to specialize more-so in the COIN operations of the modern day, because the primary objective of the GTVA's military arm is to defeat the Shivans.

As far as we've seen, fighting the Shivans and fighting the UEF aren't that compatible in terms of tactical doctrine, and it'll be interesting to see how the GTVA adapts to this. I've cooled down a bit with my loyal GTVA-ness since my early days of commenting on this issue and I'm far more willing to consider both sides in a more objective manner, but I still do enjoy discussing this, albeit now for different reasons. Typing this has really whet my appetite for BP, actually, and thus I'm going to reprise my testing role right about now.

Brb updating SVN.

[redsniper]

Strategy? MESON BOMBS EVERWHAR! Break  their sissy 'buntu spirits!

[Qent]

It is my sincere belief that ever since the ill-fated first encounter, the GTVA should have surrendered and begged for aid. Maybe it's unfair to use the benefit of hindsight, but I suspect it would have been easier to dedicate their military to keeping Sol and GTVA citizens separated than to subdue the UEF. With their great propaganda machine, they could even fake the whole war as an excuse to keep everyone away from Sol.

[The E]

Yeah right. In BP continuity, the GTVA has used the carrot of an eventual return to Sol to keep its population happy while they went through a major economic crisis. Opening the gate, and then starting to shoot anyone attempting to pass through is not politically acceptable.

[MatthTheGeek]

They've been doing it for the past 18 months. They haven't collapsed yet.

[SpardaSon21]

The GTVA also owns everything from Pluto up to the asteroid belt.  There are plenty of GTVA citizens in Sol by this point, including everyone in the former Jovian Rim Concordat.

[MatthTheGeek]

Technically, from the GTVA point of view, all civilians in Sol are GTVA citizens under the oppression of the UEF and waiting for liberation.

[Aardwolf]

There are plenty of GTVA citizens in Sol by this point, including everyone in the former Jovian Rim Concordat.

Wat. The GTVA isn't letting those people leave Sol, and they're not letting civilians enter Sol.

[The E]

They've been doing it for the past 18 months. They haven't collapsed yet.

Yes, but they have also been able to point to the ongoing conflict and say "We're now engaged in a campaign to liberate Earth from the theocracy that is oppressing it." Telling people that they can't travel there right now is different from keeping it completely quarantined, and telling people that they've sent their best units and commanders over there to resolve the situation quickly will get people to quiet down some.

The GTVA also owns everything from Pluto up to the asteroid belt.  There are plenty of GTVA citizens in Sol by this point, including everyone in the former Jovian Rim Concordat.

Those do not count, since they haven't emigrated to Sol via the jump node. This is about the several billion people in the GTVA who were told for 18 years that contact with Earth will be reestablished, and that that will revitalize the GTVA as a whole. Right now, the GTVA says that before that can happen, the crazy UEF leadership has to be removed.

My point was that Qent's suggestion to keep both populations quarantined from each other simply does not work. For several reasons, not the least of which being that the UEF, in its single system, has the same number of people living in it as the GTVA in total. Policing such a large population is impossible.  Keeping the people in the occupation force that will eventually have to be rotated back out quiet about what they've seen on Earth or Mars or JRC is impossible.
There is no way for the GTVA to win this conflict without changing itself to accommodate some of the Ubuntu policies.
There is no way for the GTVA to accomplish their main objective (securing the UEF industrial base) without leaving most of the forces that make that industrial base work in place.
There is no way for the GTVA to stop people from trying to visit Earth, if not outright emigrate there short of shooting everyone who tries.

In short, if the GTVA wins this conflict, it will have to face some rather radical changes or go under.

[Qent]

I thought it might be easier to keep UEF civilians in Sol than to keep GTVA civilians out of it, since they seemed pretty content; so the only policing they would have to do is of the GTVA crew who got far enough into Sol to find out about stuff like SOC Karunas, or that Steele is a fictional person, or whatever they used to keep up the illusion while they figure out how to merge the UEF and GTVA without both collapsing.

But I don't think any of that is compatible with the invasion plan from AoA anyway.

[Drogoth]

To be honest, I don't think the Tevs strategy SHOULD change. They're winning.

Keep in mind, that we all know that Byrne is up to something. Steele doesn't. Bearing in mind what the GTVA knows, they're winning. Handily. They just ate the Wargods for Breakfast, Jupiter is in their hands, and the blitz seriously damage UEF war fighting capacity in the long run.

IF However, the SOC figures out that Byrne is working on some kind of auto-win (who knows what it is, but we have to assume he thinks it will help the UEF survive), then my solution is to jump a large fleet in. Particularly more logistics ships. more Logistics ships can support more destroyers. A raynor and a couple more titans, go for the throat. Blitz round 2. Losses would be hideous, but if Byrne as a super weapon cooking up, the GTVA needs to win ASAP.  It would also critically weaken outer sectors, but again, the risk of losing Sol is to great. Might be difficult to find crews loyal enough to fight earth though..? I imagine officers with misgivings about the war are being kept well and truly away from the front.

Keep in mind that I'm a Tev fanboy.

[Dilmah G]

As I mentioned earlier, the Shivans are a big factor in the Terrans not already winning this thing. In fact, I'd say it's the single biggest factor. The GTVA can't commit a radically greater number of ships to the Sol theater because of the holes that opens up in its systems - which at any time need to be able to hold the line against a Second Incursion style invasion. Hell, given the increase between first and second incursions, they've probably factored in what needs to be there based on that rate of change for the Third incursion. From what we've seen in Part 1, the GTVA aren't willing to move from that.

NGTM-1R once made the point in passing whilst opening his testing comments that the GTVA could 'win the war in a day', but can't because of the presence of the Shivans. As far as I'm concerned, he's absolutely right (in military terms).

[AtomicClucker]

Snarky strategy would to be clone Steele for mass Tev destruction.

Tevs and Steele are already curb stomping the remaining forces of the Federation. Idealy, keep the pressure up until either the government or populace snaps.

[Ravenholme]

As I mentioned earlier, the Shivans are a big factor in the Terrans not already winning this thing. In fact, I'd say it's the single biggest factor. The GTVA can't commit a radically greater number of ships to the Sol theater because of the holes that opens up in its systems - which at any time need to be able to hold the line against a Second Incursion style invasion. Hell, given the increase between first and second incursions, they've probably factored in what needs to be there based on that rate of change for the Third incursion. From what we've seen in Part 1, the GTVA aren't willing to move from that.

NGTM-1R once made the point in passing whilst opening his testing comments that the GTVA could 'win the war in a day', but can't because of the presence of the Shivans. As far as I'm concerned, he's absolutely right (in military terms).

Pretty much all that needs to be said. If the GTVA could fully commit to the Sol Theatre, it'd be a Curb-Stomp Battle in Tropes parlance.

[-Norbert-]

Actually it isn't all that needs to be said, but rather something that doesn't matter (for this thread).
The thread is about what the GTVA should do, so something they can't afford to do isn't really a matter for any valid strategy the GTVA might choose.

And such massive fleet movement would also have serious repercussions for the GTVA. Just sending everyone to fight against Earth is a big risk. The crew of the spearhead (14th battlegroup) was specifically and meticulously chosen and look at what happened. Of course they did go through a lot on the parallel universe, but I think you get my point.
Also if the population notices the absence of most of the military, they'll probably reacty very badly.
There is also the matter of logistics and the bottleneck at the node.

In short pulling their whole fleet, or even half their fleet for that matter, into Sol isn't a realistic option for the GTVA.

[Ravenholme]

Hence why I said "If they could". However, as it stands, what the GTVA is doing is working. They are winning by a country mile. The GTVA doesn't need to do anything to win, the UEF, however, does.

[Qent]

The GTVA can't commit a radically greater number of ships to the Sol theater because of the holes that opens up in its systems - which at any time need to be able to hold the line against a Second Incursion style invasion.

It just occurred to me that unless they have enough ships in every system to stop 80 juggernauts, then however many they have is quite arbitrary. So what qualifies as having enough ships to hold the line against another incursion, if it's not enough to stop 80 juggernauts?

[MatthTheGeek]

Last time I checked, the Second Shivan Incursion didn't begin with 80 juggernaughts, but with a mere couple of rakshasa and a few wings of fighters. For a good while the GTVA didn't fight anything larger than the first Ravana. The GTVA probably bets on that delay to be able to either hold the line or evacuate the systems until reinforcements arrive. 2-3 corvettes per system is probably enough, with a destroyer at, at most, one inter-system jump away.