Thanks for clearing that up Spoon.
EDIT: niffi, excellent calcs, but this still doesn't help him next turn. We need to find a way to get him out of there. Maybe if all Odin Fleets retreated to Tamy, to hold the choke (which would also get them out of range of the Doomstack) and the 2nd SF double moved to Ruba or Silva? Extreme, but it would work.
The 3rd SF could double move to Aquarius to cover them, but the 1st CRF could still get away the following turn (12?) by double moving away. No retreat damage, and the 3rd Zy could only follow, not attack. As long as they run towards another fleet, the 3rd Zy would be blocked there, that's even if they'd follow in the 1st place. They might drop another supernova if they're left alone for a turn...
I can't say for sure if you will survive a fight in Formalhaut, though, given that the Zy will have no -5 nebula penalty. Somebody needs to crunch numbers. And I'm going to bed.
If the 1st CRF double moved to Formalhaut, they should survive an attack this turn from the 3rd Zy even if the 2nd SF doesn't attack or blitz them. Deals 24/24, leaving them with 5% capships left.
One other thing to consider, the 2nd SF morale is already "very low" due to being attacked while resupplying (I guess). Will they lose morale again for dropping below 50%?
Maybe the 1st CRF double moving to Tamy would be better, then they could have other fleets to cover their retreat if the 3rd Zy attack them.
Moving on to the UGCR... if we both attack the 4th Hertak we have:
1 UGCR: 131/105
2 UGCR: 156/129
4 Hertak: 26/28
Return fire would be (assuming 2nd Fura resupplied this turn and attack with Flag H + 1st Fura):
1 UGCR: 46/10
If we both attack the 2nd Fura (again assuming they resupplied):
1 UGCR: 143/118
2 UGCR: 168/142
2nd Fura: -20/-12

(includes extra resupply damage)
Return fire would be (assuming Flag H + 1st Fura + 4th Hertak):
1 UGCR: 35/-2

So, hitting the 4th Hertak would seem the better option here, even though we're not destroying a fleet. The following turn, the 3 DD & 2 UGCR could continue the attack while the 1 UGCR retreats to resupply, assuming that Aldebaran isn't contested. If it is, a double move to Vega (if the 1 LSF/3 DD can still cover Draco) would be better. Of course, the 2x Nordera + 4 Hertak remnants could attack the 1 LSF for around 32/33. Or the DoomStack could hit the 1 LSF/3 DD instead of the 2x UGCR, that would be about 85/95 damage which would destroy the 1st LSF.