Author Topic: **** Russia (and Syria too)  (Read 35710 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline MP-Ryan

  • Makes General Discussion Make Sense.
  • Global Moderator
  • 210
  • Keyboard > Pen > Sword
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
I'm just going to have to disagree on that. Vietnam won on attrition. America lost it's will to fight. Vietnam didn't. North Vietnam achieved their objectives. America failed theirs.

Or you could try doing some reading.  You are correct that the United States collectively lost the will to fight; that does not constitute military defeat.  Modern analysis has suggested that indeed the North Vietnamese military was close to defeat-in-the-field had the US continued to escalate troop deployment and not pursued its policy of "Vietnamization."

Military history is not quite so simple as common perception would have you believe.  The US withdrawal was because of political pressures at home, not defeats in the field.  So again, no NATO country has militarily lost a conflict since 1945; that is not to say they have not been forced into withdrawal politically because of perceptions at home (which has happened several times; also primarily in southeast Asia as I alluded to earlier).
"In the beginning, the Universe was created.  This made a lot of people very angry and has widely been regarded as a bad move."  [Douglas Adams]

 

Offline Polpolion

  • The sizzle, it thinks!
  • 211
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
The fact is that NATO nations have not militarily lost a conflict (Vietnam included)
How do you define this? North Vietnam wanted to take South Vietnam. They did. They won.

If you're going to say America would have won in the end if they kept going, yes I think they would, but the fact is they didn't.

Never studied military history in the 20th century, have you?  The Vietnam conflict was lost in the continental United States, not the country of Vietnam.  The departure of American forces was not due to military defeat, but politics in the US.
I'm just going to have to disagree on that. Vietnam won on attrition. America lost it's will to fight. Vietnam didn't. North Vietnam achieved their objectives. America failed theirs.

You are correct, Vietnam won in every way irrelevant to MP-Ryan's point.

 

Offline Lorric

  • 212
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
The fact is that NATO nations have not militarily lost a conflict (Vietnam included)
How do you define this? North Vietnam wanted to take South Vietnam. They did. They won.

If you're going to say America would have won in the end if they kept going, yes I think they would, but the fact is they didn't.

Never studied military history in the 20th century, have you?  The Vietnam conflict was lost in the continental United States, not the country of Vietnam.  The departure of American forces was not due to military defeat, but politics in the US.
I'm just going to have to disagree on that. Vietnam won on attrition. America lost it's will to fight. Vietnam didn't. North Vietnam achieved their objectives. America failed theirs.

You are correct, Vietnam won in every way irrelevant to MP-Ryan's point.
Well I did say I think America would have won if they kept going. I wanted to see what his definition of military defeat was. And now I know. And that's all I wanted.

So thanks Ryan.

 

Offline Herra Tohtori

  • The Academic
  • 211
  • Bad command or file name
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
NATO is only being blocked by them wanting an actual mandate from the UN Security Council this time. This is what Russia and China are blocking, them being permanent members in the UNSC, with the ability to veto any proposal on the table.

NATO forces have, in the past, engaged in military operations without UNSC backing. The 1999 bombings of Yugoslavia are a prime example of that, but the legality of said event is unclear at best.

However the Syrian situation is strategically and politically very different.

In Kosovo conflict, strategic air strikes were used to pressure the Yugoslavian leadership (Milosevic) to back off from their operations in Kosovo. In Syria, the conflict is more widespread than that, rather than Syrian forces being deployed in a particular region, they are engaged with rebel/insurgent activity country-wide.

Kosovo war was an ethnically motivated act of war against the nation's own citizens. The Syrian conflict is a case of several rebel factions (with varying motives and goals) fighting the official regime and, to varying extent, each other.

Serbian bombings had, at the very least, tacit approval of Russia at the time, rather than complete blanket disallowance. Russian units were the first UN peacekeepers in the country after Milosevic capitulated (after Finnish-Russian mediation team had convinced him to do so). The peacekeeping operations were under UN mandate, but using NATO units (KFOR) and, grudgingly, Russian peacekeeper units worked under authority of NATO troops.

Similar to both situations is the extreme reluctance to deploy significant ground troops. However in Syrian case, it is unlikely that air power alone could accomplish anything meanignful; ground presence is a must-have to get anything done. At the current political situation no one wants to send their troops there, like Luis has pointed out.

Even if by some miracle, political solution was achieved to send NATO or Russian troops to Syria to pacify the situation on UN mandate, or as peace-keepers afterwards, it would very likely become another insurgent-infested nightmare for everyone involved.


From a humanitarian point of view, I definitely agree with MP-Ryan. The conflict has only been escalating since it started, and it has long since reached a stage where outside intervention became a legitimate choice. By stonewalling ANY intervention, Russia and China share a certain degree of culpability in allowing the conflict to escalate.

However I wouldn't be so quick to unilaterally condemn the Russians on this. The opposition to Assad is fractured and, as events in Syria have shown, questionable in their motives. Parts of opposition-controlled Syria have been put under Sharia law and I doubt anyone in the West wants that to happen for the entire country. Islamic organizations (both political and terrorist kind) are sending weapons and troops to Syria to further their own gains.

It's pretty hard to justify a military intervention - particularly ground forces - when there is no real, viable political presence in the target country that you can genuinely support. When there's no plan for the future coming from within, the only course of action would be a full invasion and establishment of a new order in the country, and THAT would certainly go down well.


In a way, waiting for UNSC mandate is one indication that shows how reluctant NATO countries are to act. They've acted without direct UN approval before. In fact there's probably more of a reason for them to act now than during the Kosovo conflict, considering one of their member countries (Turkey) has come under attack from within Syrian borders several times now.

They just don't really want to get involved, which is understandable from a Machiavellian point of view, but condemnable from a humanitarian point of view.

So, if one were to believe that a military intervention is the only way to solve the conflict AND that it should have been done already, then Russia is not the only one to blame. Even without UNSC mandate, actions could have already been taken; as the old saying goes, it's easier to ask for forgiveness than permission. So, if a military intervention should have been done, then NATO countries should have done it already. Of course, there would be an interesting spectrum of possible responses from the Russian (and Chinese) governments in that case.

Also, with all the semi-recent military actions whose legality has been dubious at best - specifically, US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq, and indeed the Serbian bombings in the previous decade - I'm not surprised that NATO countries want this one played "by the rules" - especially as it also happens to give them a convenient reason to stay as far away detached from it as possible.


So it seems that, at least for the time being, it makes no sense to me to start blaming any individual country for a military intervention that never took place. No one probably wants to do it, whether it would be right or wrong thing to do. There's no strong faction in Syria that would be sympathetic to the Western governments; more and more it's starting to seem like it's a power struggle between different islamic factions in addition to rebels trying to topple Assad's regime. And while it's pretty sure Russians don't exactly like dealing with Assad either, any option would be worse for them (islamic or secular).



That still leaves a few different options for helping the civilian populace of Syria, those who are not involved in the fighting but would catch the brunt of it (either internal fighting or external intervention). Humanitarian support by sending food, emergency supplies, medication and medical teams is already being done, I think.

Another option would be to simply offer asylum for anyone not interested in fighting, and evacuate the country of anyone willing. But who wants to receive all them potential terrists, right?
There are three things that last forever: Abort, Retry, Fail - and the greatest of these is Fail.

 

Offline Luis Dias

  • 211
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
Iraq is actually limiting the number of evacuees from Syria in their borders and I imagine the same is happening in their other borders (let's forget about Israel here).

I agree with the humanitarian perspective, but that kind of **** is just absolutely out of the loop right now. Every humanitarian has to think right now in machiavelic terms, if not only for practical purposes, but mostly because it's the only model that seemingly predicts whatever it is that will happen from now on. Humanitarian perspectives only cloud our eyes here, for the best I can see anyone do is begrudingly utter an oh dear...

 

Offline Nakura

  • 26
  • Zombie Heinlein
    • Rebecca Chambers Fan Club
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
Don't have time right now for a lengthy or detailed response, as I'm at school, but thought I'd throw a question. For those of you advocating intervention due to alleged chemical weapons abuses, how can you possibly justify such an invasion on the grounds of human rights? How can the Western world accuse Syria of human rights abuses, when we're killing thousands of children a year with drone strikes, indefinitely detaining people without due process, spying on our allies and even our own people, and waging a constant war on the civil liberties of our own people?

How many times has the United States, France, Britain, etc. violated international agreements? If you don't think we violate international treaties, you need look no further than the OAS Charter or the United Nations Convention Against Torture?

 

Offline Nakura

  • 26
  • Zombie Heinlein
    • Rebecca Chambers Fan Club
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
The fact is that NATO nations have not militarily lost a conflict (Vietnam included)
How do you define this? North Vietnam wanted to take South Vietnam. They did. They won.

If you're going to say America would have won in the end if they kept going, yes I think they would, but the fact is they didn't.

Technically we won Vietnam. The Vietnam War ended with the Paris Peace Accords, which upheld the integrity of South Vietnam. The job was done. The war was over and it appeared that a lasting peace had been built. There was a major problem with the treaty, however, as it effectively granted Viet Cong agents in South Vietnam amnesty and allowed them to stay there.

Depending on your narrative, this led to one or two things:
1. These leftover communist agents began waging a guerrilla war against the South Vietnamese government.
2. The South Vietnamese government began a campaign trying to eliminate these communist leftovers.

Depending on your perception of what happened, the United States refused to get back involved in Vietnam after that. Though we did send some basic aid to the South Vietnamese government.

 

Offline MP-Ryan

  • Makes General Discussion Make Sense.
  • Global Moderator
  • 210
  • Keyboard > Pen > Sword
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
invasion

*sigh*

Quote
How can the Western world accuse Syria of human rights abuses, when we're killing thousands of children a year with drone strikes, indefinitely detaining people without due process, spying on our allies and even our own people, and waging a constant war on the civil liberties of our own people?

How many times has the United States, France, Britain, etc. violated international agreements? If you don't think we violate international treaties, you need look no further than the OAS Charter or the United Nations Convention Against Torture?

Inability to stop some rights abuses does not preclude action where possible to stop others.  Better countries be hypocrites than complicit bystanders.  Also, equivocating those items with the documented use of what are defined the world over as "weapons of mass destruction" on a civilian populace is ridiculous.  The only item in your list that even approximates the severity of chemical weapons use is the drone strikes, and your estimate of the casualty numbers is beyond hyperbolic, even by the standards set by third parties and the Pakistani government

This is like saying you can't help stop a fist-fight in the street because you had an argument with your family about what TV channel to watch yesterday.
"In the beginning, the Universe was created.  This made a lot of people very angry and has widely been regarded as a bad move."  [Douglas Adams]

 

Offline Dragon

  • Citation needed
  • 212
  • The sky is the limit.
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
Indeed. This mess has to stop. At this point, even a regime using that bastardized version of Sharia law common among extremists would be a better choice than a government that drops friggin' WMDs on civilians. Yeah, Russians are guilty of blocking the NATO intervention, but at the same time, I think that NATO should say "Screw you, people are dying out there!" and get involved anyway. Russia can't really afford an attack on NATO, and they know it. That would upset them, yes, but an intervention would be the right thing to do. NATO is less guilty than Russia and China, but they're still guilty. Something must be done, the worst possible thing to do now is to stand back and watch the massacre.

Politics being what they are, though, I think that the end result will be a few millions of innocent Syrians sacrificed on the altar of international bickering.

 

Offline Herra Tohtori

  • The Academic
  • 211
  • Bad command or file name
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
One thing I'm surprised hasn't been dealt with in media is this:

Regardless of who it was that used the chemical weapons in Syria, it is immensely troubling that they were used in the first place.

If it was Assad's government who uses them, then that's condemnable by itself.

If, however, it was some rebel faction who used them, it is actually a bit more disturbing because it means Assad's government can no longer control and contain their weapons of mass destruction.

And if one rebel faction can access these weapons (as Assad's government claims), what's stopping the more controversial factions from gaining control over them and, say, smuggling them abroad for their comrades to be used in other countries as means of terrorist attacks?


If I were a Russian I would pretty soon start to worry how much control Assad actually has over his WMD's. It may have been beneficial for Russia to keep Assad in power, but I think the risk of WMD's being distributed to terrorist organizations is becoming unacceptably high.

It may soon be that Russia will approve military intervention just to get SOME order in the country and secure the WMD's. Or they might do it themselves, who knows, we're talking about Russians here.
There are three things that last forever: Abort, Retry, Fail - and the greatest of these is Fail.

  
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
The question is up in the air still if chem weapons were actually used - there have been a whole lot of pictures of dead children with fumes around their mouths, in mortuary's and hospitals, but suprisingly few pictures of dead people lying in the street (AFAIK, none?) - There is an obvious propaganda machine working, and the grain of truth behind it all is getting... distorted.

(This does not mean I am against intervention).

Quote
It may soon be that Russia will approve military intervention just to get SOME order in the country and secure the WMD's. Or they might do it themselves, who knows, we're talking about Russians here.

I read something in the newspapers about the russians trying diplomatic intervention on their own terms.

 

Offline Luis Dias

  • 211
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
Reports speak of thousands in the hospital due to toxic poisoning.... 300 died so far. I think tbh I would need a fair big counter evidence right now to be skeptical of the chemical attack. I take it to be a given right now.

Because human nature is what it is, I would also not be entirely surprised it would be an attack of a rebel faction to another, but obviously the faction who is much more likely to have these weapons and use them is Assad.

The american navy is moving, but Obama has to make the call. So let's see what happens now.

 

Offline karajorma

  • King Louie - Jungle VIP
  • Administrator
  • 214
    • Karajorma's Freespace FAQ
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
It's worth noting that unless you knew about the existence of the Union Carbide plant, or could examine the bodies, few people would be able to tell the difference between Bophal and real chemical gas attack. So even if you see people dead in the streets, there is another possible explanation.
Karajorma's Freespace FAQ. It's almost like asking me yourself.

[ Diaspora ] - [ Seeds Of Rebellion ] - [ Mind Games ]

 

Offline Luis Dias

  • 211
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
Wouldn't Assad be able to give that kind of alternative suggestion if some chemical plant was destroyed?

Anyways, the inspectors are in Damascus...

 
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
It's worth noting that unless you knew about the existence of the Union Carbide plant, or could examine the bodies, few people would be able to tell the difference between Bophal and real chemical gas attack. So even if you see people dead in the streets, there is another possible explanation.

p. sure if there was a massive chemical plant in the suburbs of damascus we'd have heard about it by now
The good Christian should beware of mathematicians, and all those who make empty prophecies. The danger already exists that the mathematicians have made a covenant with the devil to darken the spirit and to confine man in the bonds of Hell.

 

Offline karajorma

  • King Louie - Jungle VIP
  • Administrator
  • 214
    • Karajorma's Freespace FAQ
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
Wouldn't Assad be able to give that kind of alternative suggestion if some chemical plant was destroyed?

I'm sure he would. Just saying that it's easy to see dead people in the streets and assume it's chemical weapons when there are alternative explanations.
Karajorma's Freespace FAQ. It's almost like asking me yourself.

[ Diaspora ] - [ Seeds Of Rebellion ] - [ Mind Games ]

 

Offline Luis Dias

  • 211
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
I know what you mean, but if it quacks like a duck...

 
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
I know what you mean, but if it quacks like a duck...

... It's a soldier lying in ambush.

 

Offline MP-Ryan

  • Makes General Discussion Make Sense.
  • Global Moderator
  • 210
  • Keyboard > Pen > Sword
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
Regardless of the latest attack, the UN has confirmed previous chemical weapons use in Syria during this conflict.
"In the beginning, the Universe was created.  This made a lot of people very angry and has widely been regarded as a bad move."  [Douglas Adams]

 

Offline Luis Dias

  • 211
Re: **** Russia (and Syria too)
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/26/syria-un-no-impunity-chemical-attack?CMP=twt_gu

Quote
Syria: UN inspectors' vehicle hit by sniper fire
UN says team visiting site where alleged chemical weapon attack took place 'deliberately shot at' in Damascus