[Luis Dias]

Again, you are making bad assumptions. The assumption that they are gonna build warehouses exclusively for drones is a really bad one. They are gonna use their existent (and future) warehouses and a little 100x100 cm pad with an open window. This is not rocket science and you insist on it.

[The E]

Again, you are making bad assumptions. The assumption that they are gonna build warehouses exclusively for drones is a really bad one. They are gonna use their existent (and future) warehouses and a little 100x100 cm pad with an open window. This is not rocket science and you insist on it.

Their existing warehouses?



You mean these ones? Which, I trust you are able to see, are not optimally distributed for such a scheme?

In order to offer this service where it can pull in the most revenue, there will have to be quite a few more fulfillment centers, each of which needing enough space to carry all items available on this service.

No, it is not rocket science. Never said it would be. Is it a good solution for the problem though? IMHO, no.

[StarSlayer]

Isn't this project at least four to five years away?  That's quite a long time.  Time enough for Amazon to have been usurped by a competitor or time enough to have made some significant progress on this project.  Speculation at this point is still very, speculative.  Amazon's already acquired Kiva Systems who specializes in automated distro center robots.  If they can make progress on the drone delivery concept then they quite possibly could have a completely automated a portion of their business.  It could work, it could also be pretty pie in the sky. 

[Luis Dias]

I see nine red dots there, built in a year. How many more will be built the next 5 years?

[The E]

Quite a few. And for this to work, quite a few which have to be in locations where this sort of service is practical (i.e. An environment where enough people live to generate enough calls for this service to be practical). Somehow, I have trouble believing that all of these areas will be conveniently located so that one can either rent or build the necessary facilities cheaply.

But hey, if Amazon can actually make this work, and make it work as more than just a gimmicky thing? More power to them. I doubt they'll be able to pull it off any more than they were able to pull off grocery deliveries on a large scale (Where they are just covering LA and Seattle at the moment), but I am willing to be surprised.

Of course, I also firmly believe that this is a service that the world just does not need, that it represents a case of diminishing returns regarding the potential profit vs the cost of setting it up, that organizing these deliveries through normal courier drivers would be easier and probably cheaper, that Bezos' (and Amazon's) desire to be a disruptive influence in every market they enter is ultimately damaging to the market as a whole, but whatever.

[Luis Dias]

Oh sure, I also don't see them launching this service worldwide at the same time. I see this as a bonus service they will add to their other services incrementally, each place at each time. They are extremely good at allocating these kinds of experiments, etc.

...that organizing these deliveries through normal courier drivers would be easier and probably cheaper...

I'm willing to bet that in fact no, those drivers and couriers are actually a lot expensive to maintain.

... that Bezos' (and Amazon's) desire to be a disruptive influence in every market they enter is ultimately damaging to the market as a whole, but whatever.

Ah, sure. They are destroying jobs and ruining companies by the second. Their warehouses will be almost completely automated within a few years (and so on), driving down even more the costs and destroying even more jobs.

This goes back to that automation thread and economics though. It's a bigger question than "amazon".

[MP-Ryan]

Even if there is no organized political resistance against this, all it takes is a guy with a moderately powerful gun to bring one of these things down.

Sure, shooting at these things is a valid offense, you are after all destroying someone else's property, but policing this is kinda hard.

OK, I'll quit trying to be funny and address this bit of reality.

Frankly, you wouldn't even need a gun.  Unless they have redundant flight systems and rotors, a slingshot and a bag of marbles would easily do the trick.  No telltale shot, either.  And you'd be surprised at the amount of force a slingshot can deliver.

And yes, destruction of property is illegal, but since when has that stopped people who knew they could get away with it.

[StarSlayer]

Dennis the Menace and Balearic Slingers better not muscle in on my air piracy.

[Luis Dias]

It will happen. It will also get old very quickly.

[BloodEagle]

Better yet, create a smaller drone designed to plug into these and hijack the system.  You'll soon have your own personal army of octocopters, along with their precious cargo.

[S-99]

That's the thing, S, they want to get rid of precisely that "human" thing riding the bycicle.

That blows.

[Luis Dias]

Yeaaaaaahno.

[Flak]

I just not sure what would happen if the drone deliver something to the wrong address.

[Ghostavo]

The same thing that happens when the mailman delivers the mail or a package to the wrong address.

[Dragon]

Well, at least around here, the couriers require you to sign a confirmation that you received the package. If you don't (because it isn't for you), they'll usually apologize go off looking for the proper address. While I suppose you could stick such a piece of paper to a drone, I don't know how you'd convince it that you address isn't the correct one.

[Mongoose]

Now I'm picturing this one redneck mayor out in Montana (or somewhere) who made the news by enacting an ordinance making it "legal" to shoot down drones over the town limits.  He must be licking his chops at this.

[Scourge of Ages]

I will now attempt to address the drones.

"Hello drones, my name is Scourge. How are you? I am fine."

I will now attempt to address the issues with the drones.

"Hello issues, my name is Scourge, and these are drones."

I will now attempt to talk about the issues that have been brought up, regarding drone delivery.

Point 1 - people will shoot them down.
I imagine that they'll be programmed to fly at a certain altitude, say 200-300 ft (100 m) above the ground to be sure to miss all obstacles, until they get to the correct coordinates, then just descend to the landing site. It'd be hard to hit a moving object at that range for the best of marksmen, impossible for your standard guy with a slingshot. Plus, discharging a firearm in a densely populated area is a recipe for getting the cops on you.

Point 2 - The range is too short to effectively serve enough people.
Amazon warehouses tend to be either in or very close to population centers. The market is already right next to the source.

Point 3 - They aren't accurate enough for this sort of thing, how will they get to the correct house?
A smartphone will probably be required to place a drone order. Just walk out to a good landing zone, hit the "right here" button on the order screen, and the drone just uses the GPS coordinates that your phone will send. GPS is generally accurate to within a few feet, so it should be fine. And I'm sure the drone will have sensors/cameras so that it won't try to fly through trees or power lines or something while coming in for a landing. I don't think the option for drone strike will even be available if you don't have a phone you can use for GPS - see below.

Point 4 - How will people know what's available for drone strike?
I imagine it'll be just another shipping option when you check out: Standard, Expedited, Prime, Prime Express, Drone Strike. Click drone and follow the directions.

Point 5 - How will your stuff not get stolen?
You were at the landing site when you placed the order, and you know it'll arrive within 30 minutes. There will be a tracker that sends updates to your phone with real-time status, so you know when to go back outside to pick it up. Drone lands, when you get your phone within 5 or so feet, the drone records that you were there, and leaves your parcel. If it gets shot down or the parcel stolen while it's waiting for you, it's your fault for not being at the landing zone when it arrived.

Point 6 - Too expensive to be viable
At first, yeah drones are expensive. And you'll need maintenance facilities and workers to keep them flying. But it'll still probably be cheaper in the long run than hiring bicycle couriers instead. (Though I'd love to see Amazon bike couriers zipping around, that seems fun).

This was fun! It's interesting thinking of stuff like this, it's a cool thought experiment for now.

[The E]

Point 1 - people will shoot them down.
I imagine that they'll be programmed to fly at a certain altitude, say 200-300 ft (100 m) above the ground to be sure to miss all obstacles, until they get to the correct coordinates, then just descend to the landing site. It'd be hard to hit a moving object at that range for the best of marksmen, impossible for your standard guy with a slingshot. Plus, discharging a firearm in a densely populated area is a recipe for getting the cops on you.

These things are very small and very light. Just grabbing one as it lands is the simplest thing ever. Also, a flight ceiling of 100m is pretty hard to achieve; there's a lot of battery power you need in order to get the drone up there, then to the target, then back again. Not sure if the energy density is there yet.

Point 2 - The range is too short to effectively serve enough people.
Amazon warehouses tend to be either in or very close to population centers. The market is already right next to the source.

Did you see the map I posted above? It shows pretty clearly where those warehouses are, which for the most part is near the big cities, not in them. Reason being that real estate for warehouses in those cities is goddamn expensive; Amazons recipe for success was to use cheap warehouses combined with sweetheart deals with postal delivery companies to get stuff delivered fast. Building or renting new warehouses in cities isn't going to be cheap.

Point 3 - They aren't accurate enough for this sort of thing, how will they get to the correct house?
A smartphone will probably be required to place a drone order. Just walk out to a good landing zone, hit the "right here" button on the order screen, and the drone just uses the GPS coordinates that your phone will send. GPS is generally accurate to within a few feet, so it should be fine. And I'm sure the drone will have sensors/cameras so that it won't try to fly through trees or power lines or something while coming in for a landing. I don't think the option for drone strike will even be available if you don't have a phone you can use for GPS - see below.

This point was never raised.

Point 4 - How will people know what's available for drone strike?
I imagine it'll be just another shipping option when you check out: Standard, Expedited, Prime, Prime Express, Drone Strike. Click drone and follow the directions.

Neither was this.

Point 5 - How will your stuff not get stolen?
You were at the landing site when you placed the order, and you know it'll arrive within 30 minutes. There will be a tracker that sends updates to your phone with real-time status, so you know when to go back outside to pick it up. Drone lands, when you get your phone within 5 or so feet, the drone records that you were there, and leaves your parcel. If it gets shot down or the parcel stolen while it's waiting for you, it's your fault for not being at the landing zone when it arrived.

Yeah, it's totally your fault that that drone was intercepted en route.

Point 6 - Too expensive to be viable
At first, yeah drones are expensive. And you'll need maintenance facilities and workers to keep them flying. But it'll still probably be cheaper in the long run than hiring bicycle couriers instead. (Though I'd love to see Amazon bike couriers zipping around, that seems fun).

Good to know.

[Scourge of Ages]

Reply 1: Didn't realize that that kind of altitude was so expensive to get to, that will definitely complicate things.
Reply 2: Right you are! But they're still close enough, right?
Reply 3: And I was sure somebody brought up the problem with the thing successfully getting to your house, or at least that's a potential problem I came up with.
Reply 4: That's definitely something I just came up with, but it sounded valid!
Reply 5: If it's intercepted en route, then yeah it's not your fault; but if you're not there to grab it yourself when it lands, you have no excuse because you know exactly where and when it would be arriving.

[Lorric]

I just not sure what would happen if the drone deliver something to the wrong address.

My PS3 was delivered by Amazon to the wrong address somehow. And the woman went out of her way to find me and get it to me. She didn't know it was a PS3 though, since it was just in a brown box. Lovely meeting her.

You don't have to sign for Amazon stuff here. And if you're not in, they might leave the box somewhere they think it will be safe and drop a note through the letterbox telling you where it was put.

Only time it's ever happened. Way to go Amazon, deliver by far the most expensive thing I've ever bought from you to the wrong Address. Big thumbs up for you!