[Mars]

Aging population with children expected to take care of them to an unrealistic extent doesn't help Japan either.

[karajorma]

I mean, it matters zero percent what I expect. What is true is that china has been growing at 7%+ every year now with all naysayers been forecasting their doom for more than 15 years now. To say "how do you expect to have economic growth" when we *do* see economic growth with our own very eyes is an exercise in wankidom IMHO. They are growing, and that's that.

Oh I'm certainly not a naysayer. I'm just saying that China's rise is not as cut and dried as some people like to claim. They face massive problems in the future due to some of their past policies. Japan for instance had an issue with their aging population which China is now starting to also face. An issue compounded by the effect of the One Child Policy leaving a single child with the burdon of supporting 4 grandparents.

My issue is with anyone claiming that China is an example that "Raw Capitalism Works!" because it really isn't a good example of that at all for the reasons I mentioned above.

Obviously though, I've chosen to live out here and I wouldn't be doing that if I expected the whole thing to come crashing down any minute. But that doesn't mean I don't expect rough times ahead.

[MP-Ryan]

My issue is with anyone claiming that China is an example that "Raw Capitalism Works!" because it really isn't a good example of that at all for the reasons I mentioned above.

Indeed.  China is a remarkable country, and it's rapid development since the 60s is unique; it is also only halfway done.  For the moment, China is a demonstration in how unbridled capitalism doesn't work - because they have traded short term [large] economic gains for long term consequences which will necessarily slow and possibly reverse that growth.  Meanwhile, while China's poverty score (and I use score instead of level very intentionally) is declining, they are creating the income inequality distribution that the West currently has in various degrees - except they don't have an advanced service/tech economy or a high natural resource load to absorb it.  China is all about industrialization and manufacturing; and when (not if) their currency gets a proper valuation, they will suddenly be paying considerably more for the raw resources required, and getting considerably less in payment - which in turn is going to hit their GDP growth *hard*.  Which is going to be felt that much worse because the poverty reduction is all on paper; when your poverty reduction is dependent on manufacturing industries maintaining production levels and is skewed heavily by income distribution, it will be the first hit when those industries downsize.

Estimates on the currency undervaluation China is artificially maintaining range from 5-30%, with general consensus around 20%.  An adjustment there will **** up their GDP growth really quickly, and despite their attempts to stave it off, an adjustment is coming - it's a matter of time, not possibility.  Also worth mentioning is that the currency undervaluation is having major inflationary issues.  China's official (so rose-tinted view) number is 5%.  Western economics are currently struggling to avoid deflation, and their target is 2% inflation.

China's economic credentials are vastly overstated.  They are digging themselves a deep, coffin-shaped hole that sooner or later they're going to have to buy a ladder to get out of.