[Megawolf492]

Also, demographics change over time: just because 200 million Capellans escaped from the Shivans in FS2, it does not imply that 200 million Terrans colonized the system during the T-V War. At first they could have been only a few million individuals that gradually increased during the Reconstruction Era, both thanks to new births and immigrants who moved from systems like Delta Serpentis.[/color]

I agree with this. Delta Serpentis might have been THE system to settle in initially because it would have been the first system to be explored and its close to Earth. The settlement of the presumed planet(s) might have followed the way the new world was settled by Europeans: initial military settlements by governments followed by an "open" invitation to the public to settle. With 10+ billion people on earth, many people from most economic backgrounds would have flocked there for many reasons. The population numbers might have been in the billions by the end of the T/V war, with some of them returning to Earth during the Great War. After the fall of the GTA, some of them would have moved to Capella because of promise of safety, land, etc.

Remember, most of the upper class would have had private Yacht-like vessels and some of the middle class could have had small motorboat-like craft. After a while, there would have been starliners ferrying people back and forth like airlines today. Yes, there was a war going on, but I don't believe it would have seemed very close in Sol & D.S.

[General Battuta]

Mobius' statement (that you're agreeing with) is the product of his failure to read anything posted in the thread: nobody has argued that 250 million Capellans settled the system during the TVWP. We worked out the actual math of settlement that produces a terminal population of 250 million nearly 50 years after the start of the TVWP, during FS2.

This creates a realistic minimum for the number of people who need to be moved to Capella before and during the T-V War. You're right that many more people may have moved there (though I think you're wrong about rich people/the middle class owning private starcraft). But while many MORE people may have traveled to colonies like Capella during wartime, it was probably not many less than the numbers we calculated, which still imply a significant amount of colonist traffic during the course of hostilities.

[Megawolf492]

So, what I think you are saying is that there was a good chunk of the 250 million already there by the end of the Great War (say, 50-100 million). The rest got there by birth or migration from other colonies. And so you are wondering why 50-100 million people (and their stuff) are traveling during wartime. I think that is what you are arguing/trying to figure out.

If you populate the planet(s) of Delta Serpentis with 500m people (at least) before the end of the Great War, then you really don't need anybody at Capella before the end of the Great War. DS is in the heart of Terran space, so there would be a very small risk to whoever wants to make the journey (however that would happen). Given the plausibly overcrowded Earth, many people would want to go there to make a new life for themselves, making 500m over 14 years feasible.

[General Battuta]

Capella is just a useful model for 'the total population of Terran colonies'.  You bring up a good point when talking about the distribution of that population, but it's almost irrelevant: Delta Serpentis would need to hold on the order of 1 billion people if it were the focal point of Terran emigration from Sol, and it's right near the front lines of the Terran-Vasudan war, two jumps from Antares and some of the heaviest fighting of the war. Even if it's the safest place in Terran space it's not very safe...and meanwhile, Antares, Adhara, Regulus, and Luyten 726-8 need to gather enough population and infrastructure to become the central powers of Terran politics during the Reconstruction period. Antares is a killing ground, and Regulus is an actively Vasudan system. There's basically no question that millions of civilians were at or near the front during the 14 Year War.

[General Battuta]

Ahaha also worth noting that much of the Wiki material on the GTA seems to have been completely invented. Who's responsible for this ****, let's check Wiki history...

e: no, never mind, it's solid! The GTA's central doctrine was one of 'Unified Expansionism', they were explicitly committed to continuing to expand even with the Terran-Vasudan War raging on, and as of the start of FS1 they'd colonized 'twelve worlds outside of the Sol system.  Outposts have been established on fifteen other planets and moons throughout the known galaxy.' They saw the continued expansion of the colonies as an economic and political goal.

[Megawolf492]

meanwhile, Antares, Adhara, Regulus, and Luyten 726-8 need to gather enough population and infrastructure to become the central powers of Terran politics during the Reconstruction period. Antares is a killing ground, and Regulus is an actively Vasudan system. There's basically no question that millions of civilians were at or near the front during the 14 Year War.

Don't forget that Luyten 726-8A wasn't even discovered (or at least explored/colonized) until at least the beginning of the Great War, as Laramis was only discovered/explored then. According to http://www.hard-light.net/wiki/images/Nodechart-1.jpg, Adhara wasn't discovered/explored yet either. So there are two major systems that needed to be fully colonized after the Great War. And given that Regulus was Vasudan, that's basically three. So, yes, there were colonists all over the place, but there would have a place for people to be until they colonized the new systems. Ross 128 would be the safest (from Vasudans), but I doubt the Lucifer would have destroyed the military there but leave the civilians. So really DS is the safest system outside of Sol. And given how evenly the Terrans & Vasudans seemed to be, the people there would be in little danger from Vasudans, even if it is "only" 2 jumps away.

[General Battuta]

The fact that these systems aren't discovered until the Great War but are major regional powers immediately after the Great War locks down the fact that they were colonized during the Great War. And remember, Antares was another one of those major regional powers RIGHT after the Great War, meaning it was colonized not just during the war but during some of its heaviest fighting.

[Luis Dias]

I am extremely lazy (and busy) so I can't suss the details out. However, if all you say is true, then it also makes the point that the war was most probably not that dangerous for civilians (why would they be so willing to put themselves at risk?), or that demographics works in significantly different ways in the 23rd century (Billions of people in the 23rd century may mean entirely different maths and problems than it does in the 20th).

[Megawolf492]

The fact that these systems aren't discovered until the Great War but are major regional powers immediately after the Great War locks down the fact that they were colonized during the Great War. And remember, Antares was another one of those major regional powers RIGHT after the Great War, meaning it was colonized not just during the war but during some of its heaviest fighting.

Wait, wut? People were traveling during the Great War? I could see people traveling during the off-again/on-again TV War. At least you could reason with the Vasudans and they might not just kill you outright. If you get attacked by Shivans, you're dead unless you kill them. I would like to see where it says Antares (and the others) was a regional power immediately after the Great War. It seems like it would take some time for these governments to form. I doubt it just happened overnight or even close to it. If the Antares Federation did spring up overnight, it's the only one out of the four to make sense. It's the only system that Terrans could "easily" access during the TV War, even if it was a major battleground near the end of the war. Getting that many people in a 3 month stretch (only two months for Luyten 726-8A) to new systems during an all-out war is ridiculous.

[Luis Dias]

Skimming the reference bible, we have a scientist named XXX who says that subspace has been found "22 years ago", as the TV war entered its 14th year. So there was only 8 years before vasudans were found that humans learned about this new interstellar technique. As Battuta says, there was little time to do this properly before the war, so we must somehow infer that colonization kept on happening even after the TV war broke out.

There are some relevant quotes however:

As the Terran-Vasudan war enters it’s 14th year, Allied Command has little to say about the overall progress of either side.  While food rationing and record high death counts clearly indicate that the war is taking a severe toll on both sides, there appears to be no end in sight.  That is, until this morning, when the Vasudan Ambassador submitted a formal proposal for immediate cease fire on all fronts,…

food rationing and "record" high death counts.

[Megawolf492]

It's one thing to say they were colonizing during the TV War. It's another to say they were colonizing during the Great War. I think we all agree that people were traveling during the TV War. The issue is where did they go and how many went to each place. I argue that there was a central hub in Delta Serpentis where many people colonized and then dispersed after the Great War. There still were colonies everywhere, but not with the numbers to make Capella 250m strong by FS2. Either way, I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the FS bible, as it's sketchy at best and really didn't mesh with the game that much.

[General Battuta]

It's one thing to say they were colonizing during the TV War. It's another to say they were colonizing during the Great War. I think we all agree that people were traveling during the TV War. The issue is where did they go and how many went to each place. I argue that there was a central hub in Delta Serpentis where many people colonized and then dispersed after the Great War. There still were colonies everywhere, but not with the numbers to make Capella 250m strong by FS2. Either way, I wouldn't place too much emphasis on the FS bible, as it's sketchy at best and really didn't mesh with the game that much.

The FS Ref Bible isn't necessary. The FreeSpace 1 intel database is the real clincher which proves that colonization was ongoing during the TVW - a core ideological and political component of GTA policy. The idea of a central hub in Delta Serp is fine, but unnecessary: it doesn't match up with canonical information about the post-Isolation distribution of power, which never describes Delta Serp as a particularly important system, and since it doesn't prevent front line under-the-gun colonization from happening (which it clearly did), it's kind of immaterial.

[Luis Dias]

The war vs the shivans was quick IIRC. Its timeline is pretty much irrelevant.

[Gray113]

There could be a case for saying that colonisation increased because of the threat from the Shivans. The GTA may have began evacuation Sol in ernest after the fall of Vasusda prime and if a system of 250 mil (Capella) can be evacuated in the space of a few weeks then it is possible that the GTA could have sent 100 mil + colonists from Sol to systems away from the front lines in the time between then and the destruction of the Lucy.

[Luis Dias]

Put humans in space where Shivans are having space superiority? (I see your point though)

[Gray113]

This could also be used as a factor in some of the intersystem conflicts that flared up during the reconstruction period. High ranking GTA officials and wealthy cooperate officials that fled earth seeking to create power bases in young, undeveloped colonies leading to violence and factional alliances to maintain newly won fiefdoms. Systems that stabilised would then became the power bases of powerfull political factions could then go on to provide security and high employment which in turn would lead to a greater birth rate and attract immigration from less stable systems.

[Luis Dias]

Yes but it all happens too quickly. 32 years is only enough to make a new generation, perhaps one and a half.

[Gray113]

12 years max for the situation to settle (I would expect the population on colony worlds would be far easier to control due to atmospheric restrictions panetside and the cost of space travel for most citizens) leaving 20 years for the lost generation to get born, stop feeling sorry for themselves and go Shivan hunting

[General Battuta]

Right, but the new generation is only going to be able to account for a small fraction of the canonically implied population even if you assume truly preposterous growth rates.

[Gray113]

Well old WW2's aftermath showed nothing makes people breed more than surviving a catastrophic war