[Luis Dias]

I'd be interested to hear your case! You might be right.

Really? You need someone to tell you basic stuff like Putin's government shooting contrarian journalists, the way he persecutes political adversaries? (You know the guy who almost won Moscow's elections in a surprising way despite not having any media support whatsoever? Yeah, in jail) The way he corrupts the entire country with his cronyism lunacies? (giving his long-time friends contracts the size of billions for the winter games) The way he completely destroyed the concept of "democracy" in Russia?

Oh are you specifically demanding an explanation on how Putin is worse than Obama in foreign affairs?

Perhaps you should look the way he dealt with issues in Chechnia (?) and Georgia? Or perhaps the way he personally let the gruesome massacres in Syria continue? Let's even ignore the way Putin has been dealing with Ukraine itself, all with the alledged poisoning of Yushchenko, the constant negotiation energy blackmails of the past, etc.?

Find me something Obama did that was so unscrupulously cruel. Yes, USA did some things bad and I'm sure people will list them. But thank god Putin hasn't the power that Obama has. We would be living in hell.

. You guys who live in the west probably immediately see the Russians are the villains here

Well perhaps thinking in terms of "goodies and baddies" is not the correct framework to be dealing with here or anywhere else? Or are we in kindergarten again? Having said that, Putin is a real baddie asshole. Russian geopolitical interests not so much.

[General Battuta]

Yes, I was specifically talking foreign policy.

[MP-Ryan]

So, the UN Special Envoy to the Ukraine in Crimea is being held at gunpoint today by as-yet-unidentified soldiers who wanted to put him on a plane.

And Russia is still denying they have soldiers in Crimea or deployed from the Black Sea bases, yet the ship identifiers holding the Ukranian naval forces in port have Russia IDs and flagging, and the soldiers have individually and independently confirmed they are Russian.

For anyone thinking this is a minor rift that might blow over, the assassination of a certain fellow named Ferdinand in Serbia nearly precisely 100 years ago was also a relatively minor affair on the world stage, right up until it wasn't.  Never underestimate the capability of minor events in a small corner of the world to have globe-reaching consequences.  The situation in the Ukraine has the capability of becoming a "spark" too.

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-16-russian-provocations/#1645

[Luis Dias]

That's an overused cliché.

Ferdinand was killed and sparked a world war, and yeah it was an amazing unpredictable event, but that absolutely doesn't mean that every little spark is a Franz Ferdinand event. We've had these little FF's events many many times since.

[MP-Ryan]

That's an overused cliché.

Ferdinand was killed and sparked a world war, and yeah it was an amazing unpredictable event, but that absolutely doesn't mean that every little spark is a Franz Ferdinand event. We've had these little FF's events many many times since.

No it doesn't - but it does mean that *any* little spark can be a world-shattering event given the right background circumstances, something people who dismiss events like those in the Ukraine as a minor matter need reminding of.

And circumstances here are right enough - or rather, wrong enough - that the possibility of NATO and Russian troops firing on each other is not entirely outside the realm of possibility.  I doubt it will get to that point, but the situation makes me extremely nervous, especially when I read stuff like this coming out of the Russian Duma:

In its statement the State Duma warns that “unauthorized rallies, interfering with the actions of public authorities, takeover of administrative buildings, looting, and destruction of historical monuments lead to destabilization” in Ukraine. “Of particular concern,” according to the Russian deputies, is “blatant interference” by Western politicians “in the internal affairs of sovereign Ukraine,” that “leads to further deterioration of the political situation.” In this regard, the State Duma called on foreign governments to stop exercising pressure on the “policies of our fraternal country,” and asked “the opposition forces in Ukraine to return to acting within a constitutional framework” in order to find a way out of the situation “peacefully, in the interests of the Ukrainian people.”

“The situation in Ukraine mirrors the struggle between those who favor the Eurasian integration and those who are against it,” said Leonid Slutsky (LDPR), the Chairman of the Duma Committee on CIS Affairs. “The bottom line is simple,” said Sergei Mironov, the leader of the Just Russia party. “What is happening in Ukraine today is a coup attempt, and this we cannot be indifferent to it. It is a blow to the Slavic Union, a blow to the heart.”

[Luis Dias]

A butterfly flying can cause a tornado next continent, therefore we should tremble in terror if we see a butterfly flying.

Or more appropriately, a spark like Franz Ferdinand created an explosion like WW1, therefore if you see a spark there's an explosion coming.

Causes and effects do not work that way. Your key word there is "right background circumstances", something which I think is utterly failing to exist right now for that whole shenanigan to happen. Yes, I would say that a NATO trooper shooting a recognized russian soldier (they still deny those are russian soldiers) has a slim chance to happen.

A much more probable thing to happen now is that *something* will be done to save Putin's face and then he will pretend to leave because he won the discussion, etc. This campaign is backfiring tremendously in both internal and external popularity (Russian and Ukrainian, specifically).

That statement of the Duma seems quite the obvious observational fact coupled with the proper russian propaganda. Nothing really world-shattering thing you seem to be seeing there.

Really, you are seeing things I can't see.

[MP-Ryan]

Actually, it looks like you're reading a great deal into what I'm saying.

My point was merely that dismissal of the situation as a minor issue that will simply blow over does the very real consequences of a misstep here a disservice.  This situation is neither simple nor predictable.

[Luis Dias]

I only see here (and barely) the potential to create a proxy war.

Proxy wars have been substituting direct clear wars between superpowers ever since the creation of the atom bomb.

This status quo will continue. The only novelty here is the ressurgence of a particular military power into the scene.

[MP-Ryan]

I only see here (and barely) the potential to create a proxy war.

Proxy wars have been substituting direct clear wars between superpowers ever since the creation of the atom bomb.

This status quo will continue. The only novelty here is the ressurgence of a particular military power into the scene.

 

Russian troops are IN Crimea.  Who's the proxy, exactly?

[Phantom Hoover]

Russian troops were in Afghanistan as well. I think only one side has to use a proxy.

[Luis Dias]

@MP Ryan (ninja'd by PH)

What are you talking about, proxy wars have all mostly included one superpower. Never both.

Christ, the russians even deny their troops are in Crimea.

We'd be talking quite another scenario if russian troops were firing on german ones, etc. They are not, the only danger here is russians firing on Ukrainians. That would backfire so badly it isn't funny. Evidently, they were baiting ukrainians to shoot first, but so far all they accomplished is ukrainian forces confronting them unarmed and with cameras, etc., pleading for reasonableness.

[MP-Ryan]

I only see here (and barely) the potential to create a proxy war.

The only real potential for war here - given the state of the Ukraine in general and its armed forces in particular - is combat between NATO and Russian troops should a NATO deployment occur.  That's not a proxy war; that's a direct war.  Conversely, Russian troops engaging Ukrainian troops isn't a proxy war, either; that's a direct conflict as well (even if Ukrainian forces are backed by NATO powers, this is entirely due to the Ukraine's self-interest, as opposed to something like Afghanistan where the sole reason the US backed the Mujahadeen was to **** with Russia).

Perhaps you misspoke.  There is no potential for a proxy war here.  A proxy war would imply that at least one side is using a proxy.  There are no proxies in the situation in the Ukraine - even while Russia is officially denying those are Russian troops, there is no alternative source offered and multiple independent reports have confirmed that they are indeed Russian troops.

[Scotty]

We should probably define "Proxy War" here.  Iran-Iraq 1988 was a proxy war.  Israel-Everyone several times since the 1960s have been proxy wars.

Vietnam was not a proxy war.  Neither Afghanistan was a proxy war.  Ukraine will not be a proxy war if the flames catch and burn.

[StarSlayer]

Gird your loins...



So a Russian soldier is visiting a foreign country.

At the border he's questioned by customs.

"Nationality?"

Russian

"Occupation?"

No I'm just visiting.

[MP-Ryan]

Gird your loins...



So a Russian soldier is visiting a foreign country.

At the border he's questioned by customs.

"Nationality?"

Russian

"Occupation?"

No I'm just visiting.

 

[MP-Ryan]

Vietnam was not a proxy war.  Neither Afghanistan was a proxy war.  Ukraine will not be a proxy war if the flames catch and burn.

Weeeeeeellllllll....

Vietnam was actually debatable as a proxy war; you had different sides in Vietnam backed by different foreign superpowers, all three of which got involved directly to varying degrees at different points in time.  So it squeaks by the definition, though proxy wars are ordinarily viewed as two powers engaging indirectly in conflict with each other via the means of two proxy powers.

The first Afghanistan also squeaks by in that sense, as it faced Afghans versus Russian invaders, and the Afghans were heavily backed by the United States... which only backed them to screw Russia.  Afghanistan had no strategic value.

Proxy doesn't necessarily imply there is no self-interest on the part of the proxy, but rather the state of mind of the foreign powers.  In both those cases, the foreign powers cared not one whit about the countries they backed, but rather the impact on their rival superpower(s).  Contrast to the present situation; Russia is directly involved, and any NATO/EU involvement is not designed so much to **** over Russia but rather to support the Ukrainian fledgling government.  There is inherent interest in the 'proxy' state, interest that was pretty much absent in any actual proxy war.

[StarSlayer]

Funny enough Afghanistan was bank rolled by the US and Saudi Arabia but ISI actually was responsible for the distribution of those resources.  Therefore factions aligned with the interests of Pakistan received the majority of the wealth and materiel.  The CIA had hardly anything in the way of boots on the ground in country and paid little heed to how things would shake out afterward.  Instead of making sure they backed someone sane like Masoud the CIA turned a blind eye as ISI supported the Taliban.

Huzzah for tunnel vision. 

[Scotty]

I was using "proxy" wars to define a war in which two non-Superpower nations/countries/sides waged war backed by Superpowers.  Whenever a Superpower directly got involved (Vietnam, Afghanistan, Afghanistan), it ceases to be a "proxy".

[Bobboau]

y'all are using a different definition of proxy war than I've always heard. it had always been a war fought between two nations where one combatant was acting due to the influence of their opponent's true adversary as far as I recall. USA vs USSR would be a proxy war if either side or a allie of either side fought the other so long as the main players never went to blows directly.

[Wobble73]

Gird your loins...



So a Russian soldier is visiting a foreign country.

At the border he's questioned by customs.

"Nationality?"

Russian

"Occupation?"

No I'm just visiting.

I found this LOL! So much I cut and pasted it into my status on Facebook, I got 1 like so far (that was three hours ago, shows how much my friends list cares about international politics, lol)