Author Topic: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...  (Read 69228 times)

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Offline karajorma

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
Periods when the entire West should have been pressuring Israel to complete negotiations with the PA?

The thing I find most tragic is that the activists who are most likely to excuse Hamas go suddenly silent and ignore the situation nearly as much as everyone else when Israel quits hitting back at Gaza.  Part of the bloody problem.

Which people like you exacerbate by insisting on a ceasefire first. Why the **** should Hamas agree to ceasefire? What exactly have they gained from the other ceasefires?

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Right.  And the deaths of 3 Israeli teens wherein the authorities in both Gaza and the West Bank did not aid in the capture of the perpetrators had nothing to do with it.


Feel free to point me at a legitimate extradition request from Israel. ****, feel free to point me at any attempt to blame anyone other than Hamas from Israel.

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Hamas' direct action or not, israel has arrested and is prosecuting the 6 people they identified as being involved in the retaliatory kidnapping and killing.  If Hamas and the PA want to be a government of a foreign state, act like it; enforce the rule of law.

Seriously? You're going to try this nonsense? How the **** is the arrest of 300+ people remotely legal?
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Again, I genuinely feel for the people of Gaza and the West Bank, I think they've been dealt a rotten hand, and I am firmly on their side in the grand political scheme of things.  That said, Israel bowing to Hamas' terrorism, as opposed to negotiating with the PA in good faith, is a recipe for long-term disaster.


Israel hasn't tried to negotiate with Palestine good faith since the death of Yitzhak Rabin. If you really believe they'd do it even with Hamas gone, you're living in cloud cuckoo land. 

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What the West should be pushing for is an Israeli ongoing negotiation with the PA in the West Bank regardless of what Gaza and Hamas are up to, and minimize Hamas' involvement in the peace process.  It ensures that if an accord can be reached, the PA and Israel can function as allies to track down, prosecute, and end both the oppression of Gaza by Hamas, and the terrorist attacks on Israel.

Finally you say something sensible.

I still don't believe that precludes Hamas involvement in the process though. The more the PA seem like the sensible ones in the equation, the less likely Hamas can remain in the extremes as a viable alternative.

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There's a theme to my posts, guys:  Hamas is the problem.  Minimizing, marginalizing, and destroying them should be the objective in addition to a peace agreement with the Palestinian territories and their people.

Unfortunately the theme involves waiting for something impossible to happen. Inviting Hamas to the table and letting people see that the West Bank gets what it wants while Gaza is ****ed over because of Hamas is far better than what you propose.

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Today is August 8 2014.  The Hamas Charter, the document that governs their movement, still calls for the destruction of Israel and does not accept the two-state solution.  The Likud version still calls for settlements and opposes the two-state solution as well.  Likud can be voted out.  Hamas can't.

So?

That's all the more reason to bring Hamas to the table. To force them to change the document.

Assuming that words on a page are important. Cause **** knows that if Likud were ever voted out, it would only be to replace them with a party with the same aims who aren't as stupid as to quote them in a manifesto.
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Offline Mr. Vega

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
Pretty sure that charter was made for the benefit of the Israeli public, not us. To get them used to the idea of military expansion.
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Offline MP-Ryan

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
You were saying?

Yes, I was saying.  The article you linked to says nothing more than the UN has voted to investigate.  Nowhere does it suggest evidence that Israel has intentionally or negligently targeted civilians.  If that turns out to be the case - which is the point of an investigation - then by all means Israel should face consequences for that.  You keep leaping over the story of the kids on the beach as if its evidence that Israel is out to kill Gazan kids by intention or negligence, but there is no evidence of that to date.  If and/or when that changes then I'll cast judgement; until such evidence is presented, I'm inclined to throw it on the board as another case of "when conflict starts, civilians die."
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Offline MP-Ryan

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
Which people like you exacerbate by insisting on a ceasefire first. Why the **** should Hamas agree to ceasefire? What exactly have they gained from the other ceasefires?

They've gained not having their civilians killed in retaliation for their attacks on Israel.  Of course, hamas doesn't actually care one whit about civilian casualties on either side.  Dead Gazans is a convenient narrative for them.  The reason why hamas should agree to a ceasefire is because their ongoing attacks targeted on civilians are illegal under international law, and they are acting as provocation for Israel's counterattacks, which typically will not be considered illegal under those same international laws except in the most egregious cases.  Whether Hamas benefits or not from a ceasefire is irrelevant; what IS relevant is that Hamas CANNOT BENEFIT from attacking civilians in what is considered terrorism under international law.  You can't give a terrorist organization concessions in direct response to their attacks while they continue, and democracies don't.

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Feel free to point me at a legitimate extradition request from Israel. ****, feel free to point me at any attempt to blame anyone other than Hamas from Israel.

Right after you point me to the investigation by the PA and/or Hamas where they arrested the perpetrators.  Extradition can only occur where suspects are investigated, identified, and arrested.  Neither the PA or Hamas did that.

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Seriously? You're going to try this nonsense? How the **** is the arrest of 300+ people remotely legal?

You're misreading me.  Israel arrested and is prosecuting the six people in Israel that killed the Palestinian kid following the death of the Israelis.  Notice how this works:  The democratic state with rule of law noted a crime within its borders, investigated, arrested suspects, and has charged them and will prosecute.  Notice how the PA and Hamas didn't even try.  If Hamas had nothing to do with it and was so interested in proclaiming their innocence, they should have been scrambling all over themselves to investigate and find the people who did and put them before an actual justice system.  They didn't.  Why?  because they're scumbag terrorist who aren't interested in prosecuting people who murder Israelis (or anyone else, for that matter).

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Israel hasn't tried to negotiate with Palestine good faith since the death of Yitzhak Rabin. If you really believe they'd do it even with Hamas gone, you're living in cloud cuckoo land. 

Nonsense.  With Hamas gone and the associated violence, israel no longer has a choice.  Western sentiment has shifted notably in the last decade.  Hamas' continued existence is the only excuse they have left.

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I still don't believe that precludes Hamas involvement in the process though. The more the PA seem like the sensible ones in the equation, the less likely Hamas can remain in the extremes as a viable alternative.
Unfortunately the theme involves waiting for something impossible to happen. Inviting Hamas to the table and letting people see that the West Bank gets what it wants while Gaza is ****ed over because of Hamas is far better than what you propose.

If Hamas is involved, the PA will not settle because they will not settle the West Bank without Gaza.  If Hamas is removed from the equation as any meaningful contributor, the PA can negotiate on behalf of both the West Bank and Gaza.

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Assuming that words on a page are important. Cause **** knows that if Likud were ever voted out, it would only be to replace them with a party with the same aims who aren't as stupid as to quote them in a manifesto.

I only bring up the words on the page since a few people are so persistent in quoting the words of Hamas' leader to show the contradiction.  Hamas has not demonstrated in any meaningful way that it is willing to work toward a two-state solution.  Hamas has shown - and their latest concession demands continue the trend - that they want more money, open borders, and more materiel without strings attached.  Given that past behaviour is the best predictor of future behaviour, that means they're more interested in acquiring more weapons and improving their strike capabilities (tunnels) than improving life in Gaza or working toward peace since they also refuse any attempt to disarm in the process.

Hamas isn't the slightest bit interested in peace, and long-term peace isn't possible with them in the equation because they WILL disrupt it as often and brutally as possible.  What's more, they don't care one whit about international pressure; Israel, on the other hand, does.

There are two realistic options available for a long-term peace accord:

1.  Hamas agrees to a ceasefire, and Israel negotiates with the PA and a marginalized Hamas toward peace.
2.  Israel and the PA forge ahead even during the Hamas attacks with an agreement for both West Bank and Gaza to be run independently by the PA, while actuively working toward the military destruction/disarmament of Hamas in Gaza.

The first requires Hamas to agree to a ceasefire.  The second requires the PA to agree to negotiate and exclude Hamas, something Abbas would dearly like to do but is afraid to do because his own position is fairly tenuous.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2014, 04:42:28 pm by MP-Ryan »
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Offline Mr. Vega

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
You're refusing to comment on the arrest of more than 300 people. Or evidence that points away from Hamas and towards a rogue sect that was opposed to Hamas' 19 month peace with Israel (the Qawasmeh Clan). And how did any of this justify air strikes on the West Bank?
« Last Edit: August 08, 2014, 05:10:20 pm by Mr. Vega »
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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
You're refusing to comment on the arrest of more than 300 people. Or evidence that points away from Hamas and towards a rogue sect that was opposed to Hamas' 19 month peace with Israel (the Qawasmeh Clan). And how did any of this justify air strikes on the West Bank?

Also. Should note that the final estimates for BK is 530 arrested. Otherwise, carry on.

 

Offline jr2

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
Side note, Al-Shifa was apparently used as a Hamas Command post. Reporters knew but were afraid to report it for fear of retaliation.


http://mobile.wnd.com/2014/08/hamas-used-main-hospital-as-command-center/#vGDROdxVBWPoTT7z.01

 
Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
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You're misreading me.  Israel arrested and is prosecuting the six people in Israel that killed the Palestinian kid following the death of the Israelis.  Notice how this works:  The democratic state with rule of law noted a crime within its borders, investigated, arrested suspects, and has charged them and will prosecute.  Notice how the PA and Hamas didn't even try.  If Hamas had nothing to do with it and was so interested in proclaiming their innocence, they should have been scrambling all over themselves to investigate and find the people who did and put them before an actual justice system.  They didn't.  Why?  because they're scumbag terrorist who aren't interested in prosecuting people who murder Israelis (or anyone else, for that matter).

The PA's police has actually assisted Israel with the search efforts. Israeli forces have noted that this was "very proffesional"
Hamas hasn't, but hamas has no authority in the west bank.

It should also be noted that the West Bank is, according to Israel itself, not under their occupation. Even if the PA has been neglicient (and considering the time passed between the incident and Brother's Keeper, I don' t  think that qualification can be made)... Would the Dutch or the Malysians be legitimized in invading Ukraine to find out what happened to MH12?
« Last Edit: August 09, 2014, 01:22:17 pm by -Joshua- »

 

Offline MP-Ryan

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
You're refusing to comment on the arrest of more than 300 people. Or evidence that points away from Hamas and towards a rogue sect that was opposed to Hamas' 19 month peace with Israel (the Qawasmeh Clan). And how did any of this justify air strikes on the West Bank?

I was never asked to comment on the arrests of more than 300 people (other than where kara misread my original point where he thought I brought it up).  I have never said those actions were justified.  I have said - ad nauseum - that the primary key to resolving this mess is the elimination of Hamas as a wielder of power in the Palestinian territories.  Quit trying to construct arguments that I'm not making.  You have some earlier factual misrepresentation to clear up instead, or do you still maintain that the link you posted is evidence that Israel intentionally or negligently targeted the civilians on the beach?  I, for one, am going to wait for a proper investigation before leaping at conclusions.

For the record, I think Israel's initial response to the catalyst - the kidnap/murder of the teens - was hasty and heavy-handed, which happens to include the mass arrests and the recent "blame the PA too!" tactic.  That said, hasty and heavy-handed doesn't justify the intentional targeting and attempted murder of civilians in populated areas.  Israel didn't send forces into the West Bank to murder its residents; Hamas let loose rockets at Israeli population centers fully hoping to kill as many people as possible.

Nowhere have I said Israel is a blameless innocent in any of this mess.  Most of what I've said about Israel is actually coincidental as it relates to Hamas' rocket fire.

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You're misreading me.  Israel arrested and is prosecuting the six people in Israel that killed the Palestinian kid following the death of the Israelis.  Notice how this works:  The democratic state with rule of law noted a crime within its borders, investigated, arrested suspects, and has charged them and will prosecute.  Notice how the PA and Hamas didn't even try.  If Hamas had nothing to do with it and was so interested in proclaiming their innocence, they should have been scrambling all over themselves to investigate and find the people who did and put them before an actual justice system.  They didn't.  Why?  because they're scumbag terrorist who aren't interested in prosecuting people who murder Israelis (or anyone else, for that matter).

The PA's police has actually assisted Israel with the search efforts. Israeli forces have noted that this was "very proffesional"

That I hadn't heard, so thanks for that.

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Hamas hasn't, but hamas has no authority in the west bank.

Hamas has no lawful authority in the West Bank, but they have significant power and influence outside the realm of lawful authority.  If Hamas was truly interested in justice, especially if this was done by a rival sect, they have the resources to assist the PA in tracking down the actual perpetrators.

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It should also be noted that the West Bank is, according to Israel itself, not under their occupation. Even if the PA has been neglicient (and considering the time passed between the incident and Brother's Keeper, I don' t  think that qualification can be made)... Would the Dutch or the Malysians be legitimized in invading Ukraine to find out what happened to MH12?

In my view, that depends.  If the foreign power is incapable and unwilling to investigate of its own accord, or the investigation is utterly incompetent, I think countries are well within their rights to send their own people to investigate, protecting them by force if necessary.  The MH17 thing has me a little surprised actually, because I had assumed the Netherlands would have been doing some major lobbying to drop NATO troops into the crash area to protect the investigation team they did send, but that doesn't seem to be going to happen.
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Offline karajorma

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
I was never asked to comment on the arrests of more than 300 people (other than where kara misread my original point where he thought I brought it up).

You have repeatedly argued that it was Hamas' illegal attacks on civilians which started this conflict. Will you agree that it was Israel's illegal arrests of Hamas members that started it?

They've gained not having their civilians killed in retaliation for their attacks on Israel.  Of course, hamas doesn't actually care one whit about civilian casualties on either side.  Dead Gazans is a convenient narrative for them.  The reason why hamas should agree to a ceasefire is because their ongoing attacks targeted on civilians are illegal under international law, and they are acting as provocation for Israel's counterattacks, which typically will not be considered illegal under those same international laws except in the most egregious cases.  Whether Hamas benefits or not from a ceasefire is irrelevant; what IS relevant is that Hamas CANNOT BENEFIT from attacking civilians in what is considered terrorism under international law.  You can't give a terrorist organization concessions in direct response to their attacks while they continue, and democracies don't.

As I've repeatedly said, there is a difference between giving them concessions and talking to them. Israel is committed to the whole "We don't talk to terrorists" ideal which you also seem to be committed to. This ideal very rarely works. In the cases I mentioned previously (South Africa and Northern Ireland) peace was eventually secured precisely because people talked. Now I'm sure you're going to make some claim about how the situation there was different, fine. Find me a situation which was the same where ignoring the terrorists did result in a lasting peace.

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You're misreading me.  Israel arrested and is prosecuting the six people in Israel that killed the Palestinian kid following the death of the Israelis.  Notice how this works:  The democratic state with rule of law noted a crime within its borders, investigated, arrested suspects, and has charged them and will prosecute.  Notice how the PA and Hamas didn't even try.  If Hamas had nothing to do with it and was so interested in proclaiming their innocence, they should have been scrambling all over themselves to investigate and find the people who did and put them before an actual justice system.  They didn't.  Why?  because they're scumbag terrorist who aren't interested in prosecuting people who murder Israelis (or anyone else, for that matter).

As has been pointed out to you, you're now expecting Hamas to go out of their way to prove their innocence since they are not the authority in the West Bank and the authorities in question did co-operate with the investigation. Instead of simply cooperating with any investigation by the PA, Hamas should have undertaken their own investigation into the matter so that Israel wouldn't illegally invade the West Bank. How is that remotely legal?

And when was their time for Hamas to conduct this investigation anyway? About 2 days passed between the kidnap and the invasion. 

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Nonsense.  With Hamas gone and the associated violence, israel no longer has a choice.  Western sentiment has shifted notably in the last decade.  Hamas' continued existence is the only excuse they have left.


I don't think that shift is anywhere near as big as you claim. Where is the pressure on Israel to negotiate with the PA in the West Bank? Cause Hamas aren't in charge there and **** all has happened.

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If Hamas is involved, the PA will not settle because they will not settle the West Bank without Gaza.  If Hamas is removed from the equation as any meaningful contributor, the PA can negotiate on behalf of both the West Bank and Gaza.


Except that any settlement reached would be meaningless since the PA have no authority in Gaza.

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I only bring up the words on the page since a few people are so persistent in quoting the words of Hamas' leader to show the contradiction.  Hamas has not demonstrated in any meaningful way that it is willing to work toward a two-state solution.

In the last 10 years what has Israel done to show it is willing? 

The problem is you seem to believe that Israel wants peace and that there will be pressure on them to make peace. You are completely wrong on both counts.
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Offline MP-Ryan

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
You have repeatedly argued that it was Hamas' illegal attacks on civilians which started this conflict. Will you agree that it was Israel's illegal arrests of Hamas members that started it?

I have argued that Hamas' rocket attacks on Israel started the airstrikes and resulting ground incursion into Gaza - which they did.  I had not previously commented on what started the whole affair, aside from alluding to the kidnap and murder of the Israeli teens, which are traceable as the first spark in the recent conflict.  The Israeli incursion into the West bank came after.

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As I've repeatedly said, there is a difference between giving them concessions and talking to them. Israel is committed to the whole "We don't talk to terrorists" ideal which you also seem to be committed to. This ideal very rarely works. In the cases I mentioned previously (South Africa and Northern Ireland) peace was eventually secured precisely because people talked. Now I'm sure you're going to make some claim about how the situation there was different, fine. Find me a situation which was the same where ignoring the terrorists did result in a lasting peace.

The UK did not negotiate with and give concessions to the IRA while they were actively in the middle of a civilian bombing campaign.



I had originally started and intended to do a line-by-line response to the rest of your post, but I honestly I don't think it serves the discussion of the point I keep droning on about (and simply perpetuates the devolving spiral into detailed nitpicking).  I'd rather focus on the steps to the endgame, which is what I've been doing all along:

I acknowledge that Israel is not "the good guys."  Similarly, the residents of Gaza and the West Bank aren't "the bad guys."  Neither is the PA.  Israel has done a lot of really ****ty things to the residents of Gaza and the West Bank which the world at large has largely let them get away with for a multitude of reasons, both pragmatic and political.  It's not right, it's not acceptable, and a shift in the West in particular is going to be necessary to force a long term peace agreement into place.  Unless both sides leave the negotiating table with equal grumbling, there is going to be a winner and a loser, and that means that peace is not going to last.

It doesn't actually matter who started it.  It doesn't actually matter how many civilians, legitimate troops (both sides), or terrorists die in this conflict.  It doesn't matter that three Israeli teens were kidnapped and murdered; it doesn't matter that one Palestinian kid had the same done to him; it doesn't matter that Israel walked into the West Bank (yet again), that Hamas shoots at Israel, that Israel shoots back, or that either side breaks ceasefires.  It's a callous thing to say, but it's ultimately true.  I happen to think that there is enough blame to go around for everyone, but that Hamas is truly a bunch of evil individuals in a league all to their own in this conflict.  But it doesn't matter.

What DOES matter, and matters immensely, is the long-term calculus.  If Israel negotiates with people who are actively and *intentionally* shooting at civilians while those attacks are still going on or as a direct consequence of them stopping the peace process is ****ed.  Long-term.  Possibly irreparably.  The conflict over the region of Palestine (of which Israel is a part) has been going on for as long as we have recorded human history, and that is because we have only rarely managed to have the three primary religions in the region all led by people who want to have peace and share power.  And finally - finally! - we almost have the conditions to make it lasting.  Like Northern Ireland, the majority populations on both sides (or, more accurately in this case, all three sides) are prepared to accept a power-sharing arrangement to ensure a lasting peace, if only their governments would catch up.

Except now, we have two more radical elements with agendas who benefit from a lack of peace.  In Israel, we have the governing party, who are happy to use security excuses to further expand their territorial borders and dominate the region.  In Gaza (and to a lesser extent, the West Bank), we have Hamas, who still vow to destroy the state of Israel.  One is a democratic government that must at least pay heed to international law or risk alienating the entire world.  One is a terrorist organization who simply doesn't care about anything but their agenda.  The first becomes unacceptable and unsupportable if the second vanishes.

If Israel allows concessions to be a condition of a halt on attacks on civilians, the peace process loses.  Hamas' goal is to establish a theocratic, non-democratic state over the entirety of the former Palestinian Mandate.  If they gain concessions as a direct result of attacks on civilians, they will not stop.  That goal will continue, and they will have the means to do it.  It'll be slow and incremental, but everytime Hamas wants further concessions, the shots will start and the rockets will take flight until they gain them... until Israel says 'no more' and the real killing starts.

Terrorist attacks on civilians cannot be the basis for a peace settlement.  It's far worse in the long run.  That doesn't preclude a settlement in the West Bank, but Abbas is historically unwilling to settle the West Bank negotiations independently of Gaza's participation.  If he's changed his tune (which I'm not aware of), then Israel certainly does deserve condemnation for its failure to seek an agreement there.
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Offline Lorric

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
Looks like Israel have rented themselves out some ad space on Youtube.

I just got this as my ad on a completely unrelated Youtube video:


It's on this channel:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6zZ6ROUfiMqSRrsMQamlhA

"Israel's Foreign Affairs Min."

 

Offline Dragon

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
Good thing I've got an adblocker, or I'd be all for Hamas now. :) I loathe YT ads. I suppose it's a decent idea, though. The governments are starting to catch up on how powerful internet is.

 

Offline karajorma

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
The UK did not negotiate with and give concessions to the IRA while they were actively in the middle of a civilian bombing campaign.

Absolute complete and utter bull****.


Quote
In August 1994, the Provisional IRA announced a "complete cessation of military operations". This was the culmination of several years of negotiations between the Republican leadership, led by Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, various figures in the local political parties, the Irish government and British government. It was informed by the view that neither the UK forces, nor the IRA could win the conflict and that greater progress towards Republican objectives might be achieved by negotiation.

While many Provisional IRA volunteers were reportedly unhappy with the end of armed struggle short of the achievement of a united Ireland, the peace strategy has since resulted in substantial electoral and political gains for Sinn Féin, the movement's political wing. It may now be argued that the Sinn Féin political party has eclipsed the Provisional IRA as the most important part of the republican movement. The ceasefire of 1994 therefore, while not a definitive end to Provisional IRA operations, marked the effective end of its full scale armed campaign.

The Provisional IRA called off its 1994 ceasefire on 9 February 1996 because of its dissatisfaction with the state of negotiations. They signaled the end of the ceasefire by detonating a truck bomb at Canary Wharf in London, which caused the deaths of two civilians and massive damage to property. In the summer of 1996, another truck bomb devastated Manchester city centre. However, the Provisional IRA campaign after the ceasefire was suspended during this period and never reached the intensity of previous years. In total, the IRA killed 2 British soldiers, 2 RUC officers, 2 British civilians, and 1 Garda in 1996–1997 according to the CAIN project.[152] They resumed their ceasefire on 19 July 1997.[153]

These Provisional IRA military activities of 1996–97 were widely believed to have been used to gain leverage in negotiations with the British government during the period.[154] Whereas in 1994–95, the British Conservative Party government had refused to enter public talks with Sinn Féin until the IRA had given up its weapons, the Labour Party government in power by 1997 was prepared to include Sinn Féin in peace talks before IRA decommissioning. This precondition was officially dropped in June 1997.[149]

Another widespread interpretation of the temporary breakdown in the first IRA ceasefire is that the leadership of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness tolerated a limited return to violence in order to avoid a split between hardliners and moderates in the IRA Army Council. Nevertheless, they emphasized in every public statement since the fall of 1996 the need for a second truce. Once they had won over or removed the militarists from the Council, they re-instated the ceasefire.[8]



The IRA first offered a ceasefire in 1994. This was after they had been engaged in secret talks with the British government (who publicly denied it) and only after the major concession of the Downing Street Declaration had been made. You claim no concessions but Britain basically announced that they would be willing to give Northern Ireland back.

The IRA returned to violence when they became dissatisfied with the talks and in particular the demand of the British government that they must demilitarise. Which led to the British government eventually resuming the talks after giving in to the IRA demand. Given that prior to both ceasefires the British government was in secret talks with the Sinn Fein I really don't see how you can possibly claim that there were no negotiations or concessions granted before the talks that eventually led to the Good Friday Agreement.

Peace in Northern Ireland happened literally because the British Government were willing to talk to a terrorist organisation. The exact same thing happened in South Africa between the government and the ANC. It needs to happen in Palestine before there will be peace.




Quote
What DOES matter, and matters immensely, is the long-term calculus.  If Israel negotiates with people who are actively and *intentionally* shooting at civilians while those attacks are still going on or as a direct consequence of them stopping the peace process is ****ed.  Long-term.  Possibly irreparably.  The conflict over the region of Palestine (of which Israel is a part) has been going on for as long as we have recorded human history, and that is because we have only rarely managed to have the three primary religions in the region all led by people who want to have peace and share power.  And finally - finally! - we almost have the conditions to make it lasting.  Like Northern Ireland, the majority populations on both sides (or, more accurately in this case, all three sides) are prepared to accept a power-sharing arrangement to ensure a lasting peace, if only their governments would catch up.

Except now, we have two more radical elements with agendas who benefit from a lack of peace.  In Israel, we have the governing party, who are happy to use security excuses to further expand their territorial borders and dominate the region.  In Gaza (and to a lesser extent, the West Bank), we have Hamas, who still vow to destroy the state of Israel.  One is a democratic government that must at least pay heed to international law or risk alienating the entire world.  One is a terrorist organization who simply doesn't care about anything but their agenda.  The first becomes unacceptable and unsupportable if the second vanishes.

I don't disagree with anything you have said up until this point.

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If Israel allows concessions to be a condition of a halt on attacks on civilians, the peace process loses.  Hamas' goal is to establish a theocratic, non-democratic state over the entirety of the former Palestinian Mandate.  If they gain concessions as a direct result of attacks on civilians, they will not stop.  That goal will continue, and they will have the means to do it.  It'll be slow and incremental, but everytime Hamas wants further concessions, the shots will start and the rockets will take flight until they gain them... until Israel says 'no more' and the real killing starts.

Terrorist attacks on civilians cannot be the basis for a peace settlement.  It's far worse in the long run.  That doesn't preclude a settlement in the West Bank, but Abbas is historically unwilling to settle the West Bank negotiations independently of Gaza's participation.  If he's changed his tune (which I'm not aware of), then Israel certainly does deserve condemnation for its failure to seek an agreement there.

Here's where I disagree with you completely. As I've pointed out above, with the IRA that simply did not happen. Even a return to their mainland bombing campaign didn't disrupt the long term peace process. While I fully agree that Hamas are a long term threat to peace in the region I happen to be of the opinion that any short term peace which leads to a drastic improvement in lives of the people in Gaza will very quickly lead to them being marginalised by their own people in the same way that the Real IRA very quickly found that no one was the slightest bit interested in their agenda.
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Offline MP-Ryan

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
Pardon me?

The UK did not give a single solitary concession to the IRA while the bombing was active.  Nothing in that Wikipedia article refutes that.  The UK was talking to Adams and McGuinness, both of whom were political figures and legitimate representatives of Sinn Fein and not actually active members of the pIRA at the time.  Moreover, Sinn Fein was included in peace talks following the IRA bombings of 96-97, but the pIRA was not.  This is analogous to Israel negotiating with the PA in the West Bank while Hamas is still active.  The UK government's negotiations with the Republican movement occurred with Sinn Fein, which renounced violence, and not the IRA.  Now, there have always been links between the two and its an open question if Adams and McGuinness were indeed directing members of the pIRA itself, but the negotiations always occurred with the political movement, not the bombers, and its an important distinction.  Moreover, the UK's public negotiations of record all took place after the IRA's ceasefires were established, both in 1994 and 1997.

As a further matter of interest, the Downing Street Declaration was not an announcement that "Britain would give the north back" (an odd statement, considering it was never actually taken in the first place, but moving on), but rather an announcement that the people of Northern Ireland had a right to self-determination.  And a precondition of it and negotiations was the cessation of violence.  It directly prompted the pIRA ceasefire of 1994.

On a broader level, the Irish conflict isn't comparable to Hamas and Israel in that the pIRA's goal was always the 'liberation' of Northern Ireland from the UK and its 're'unification with the Republic in the south.  They never sought the destruction of the UK itself.  Hamas does.

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Here's where I disagree with you completely. As I've pointed out above, with the IRA that simply did not happen. Even a return to their mainland bombing campaign didn't disrupt the long term peace process. While I fully agree that Hamas are a long term threat to peace in the region I happen to be of the opinion that any short term peace which leads to a drastic improvement in lives of the people in Gaza will very quickly lead to them being marginalised by their own people in the same way that the Real IRA very quickly found that no one was the slightest bit interested in their agenda.

The IRA was already effectively marginalized by 1996-7.  They were not in 1994; it was UK recognition of self-determination rights coupled with the principle that they would not negotiate with the people actively committing violence that led to the IRA's unilateral 1994 ceasefire.  As mentioned above, there are good reasons not to expect the same sort of magnanimous behaviour from Hamas.  The IRA was genuinely interested in a goal with an end to hostilities and was willing to accept a lasting solution that still allowed their adversary to continue to exist.  Hamas is not.

The ideal pragmatic scenario is that the PA abandons Hamas to its fate and negotiates with Israel without them.  If the PA declared a willingness to do so, public pressure would force Israel to the negotiating table for real talks.  As it stands, Abbas' refusal to negotiate without Gaza's inclusion due to his likelihood of being tossed from office for it is the biggest hampering issue toward a realistic solution, short of the evisceration of Hamas in a military campaign, for which international support is virtually nil at this point.
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Offline karajorma

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
The UK did not give a single solitary concession to the IRA while the bombing was active.  Nothing in that Wikipedia article refutes that.

You missed the whole bit on secret talks then. You missed that the British Government conceded on the precondition of disarmament before talks could happen only when the IRA went back to violence.

And remember it's you who brought up concessions. I've repeatedly said they aren't necessary but talks are.

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Now, there have always been links between the two and its an open question if Adams and McGuinness were indeed directing members of the pIRA itself, but the negotiations always occurred with the political movement, not the bombers, and its an important distinction.

I don't think it's anywhere near as important as you believe. If either were known to have been directing members of the pIRA they would immediately have been arrested. You're basically splitting hairs in a desperate attempt to claim that Hamas are different. Political party only or actively armed terrorists doesn't really matter in this case.

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Moreover, the UK's public negotiations of record all took place after the IRA's ceasefires were established, both in 1994 and 1997.

Stressed the important word there.

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As a further matter of interest, the Downing Street Declaration was not an announcement that "Britain would give the north back" (an odd statement, considering it was never actually taken in the first place, but moving on), but rather an announcement that the people of Northern Ireland had a right to self-determination.

If you're going to nit-pick you need to read more carefully. I said willing, not will. i.e they were willing to accept self-determination. If you don't believe that talks with the IRA led to that rather spectacular change in tack, that's up to you.

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On a broader level, the Irish conflict isn't comparable to Hamas and Israel in that the pIRA's goal was always the 'liberation' of Northern Ireland from the UK and its 're'unification with the Republic in the south.  They never sought the destruction of the UK itself.  Hamas does.

By this logic you can never have peace between Taiwan and China since the Taiwanese constitution still considers their government to be the legitimate rulers of the mainland. If you really believe that they would stick to their guns over that I think we can end this conversation right now.

While not exactly the same for all we know once a temporary truce is in place and both countries have peace, even Hamas might be willing to soften their stance in order to avoid another war and simply leave things much the same as Taiwan has (i.e a paper declaration that they should rule Israel but a de facto acceptance of Israel. It's absolutely certain they've made statements to that effect.

Even if that isn't the case, after a few years of peace it's very likely that Hamas will find that the will to start trouble isn't there. This is exactly why I brought up the Real IRA.   


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The IRA was already effectively marginalized by 1996-7.  They were not in 1994; it was UK recognition of self-determination rights coupled with the principle that they would not negotiate with the people actively committing violence that led to the IRA's unilateral 1994 ceasefire.

And why do you think that was, if not for pretty much exactly the reason I stated above?

More importantly though, given that there is historical precedent for it resulting in peace, why the **** aren't we hearing a ridiculous amount of pressure on Israel to make a declaration similar to the Downing Street Declaration? You know, if they're the civilised, democratic, non-crazy bastards?  Once that happens, you could more legitimately claim that the ball in in Hamas' court to give up violence. Because then, they would already know what the results of talks might be, and that Israel couldn't go back on their word.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2014, 02:45:38 am by karajorma »
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Offline MP-Ryan

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
You missed the whole bit on secret talks then. You missed that the British Government conceded on the precondition of disarmament before talks could happen only when the IRA went back to violence.

Stressed the important word there.

If you're going to nit-pick you need to read more carefully. I said willing, not will. i.e they were willing to accept self-determination. If you don't believe that talks with the IRA led to that rather spectacular change in tack, that's up to you.

I believe in evidence, not conjecture.  And I'm not seeing any evidence of these claims in any of the information you've linked or any of the publicly-available record.  And once again, the negotiations took place with legitimate political representatives, not the organization doing the bombing.

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I don't think it's anywhere near as important as you believe. If either were known to have been directing members of the pIRA they would immediately have been arrested. You're basically splitting hairs in a desperate attempt to claim that Hamas are different. Political party only or actively armed terrorists doesn't really matter in this case.

It's a massively important distinction.  The IRA was expressly marginalized and excluded because the talks were conducted between legitimate political representatives, not a government negotiating with the bombers.  It makes all the difference.  The IRA never got concessions out of the UK government - Sinn Fein, who conducted their business peacefully, did.

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And remember it's you who brought up concessions. I've repeatedly said they aren't necessary but talks are.

Is that the sticking point?  Because I don't oppose talks between Israel and Hamas to establish a ceasefire.  I oppose any attempt to make Israel give concessions to Hamas while the attacks are ongoing or as a direct result of them (a reward of sorts).  And if you read the latest list of demands out of Hamas, it's not a roadmap to peace, but a list of concessions it expects from Israel in exchange for them not shooting at them.  That's called extortion.

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By this logic you can never have peace between Taiwan and China since the Taiwanese constitution still considers their government to be the legitimate rulers of the mainland. If you really believe that they would stick to their guns over that I think we can end this conversation right now.

Say what now?  No, by my earlier logic Taiwan and China are not comparable to the Irish conflict.  That says nothing about the prospects for peace, merely that they're aren't comparable.  Similarly, the conflict surrounding Israel is only tangentially comparable to the irish conflict, which also says nothing about the prospects for peace there either.

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While not exactly the same for all we know once a temporary truce is in place and both countries have peace, even Hamas might be willing to soften their stance in order to avoid another war and simply leave things much the same as Taiwan has (i.e a paper declaration that they should rule Israel but a de facto acceptance of Israel. It's absolutely certain they've made statements to that effect.

Even if that isn't the case, after a few years of peace it's very likely that Hamas will find that the will to start trouble isn't there. This is exactly why I brought up the Real IRA.

1.  I don't oppose a ceasefire or temporary truce.  I oppose Hamas' conditions for a ceasefire as concessions from Israel.
2.  Despite unilateral withdrawal by Israel in 2005 and no incursions into Gaza except in retaliation for Hamas' activities since it actively took and illegally held power in 2007, Hamas has mounted or supported significant attacks into Israel on at least seven separate occasions between 2007 and today.  Hamas stills commands (at last estimate) 37% support, despite their utter failure as a government.  The will to start trouble broadly in Gaza is already gone - the problem is that Hamas controls the government and can start trouble whenever it likes, will of the people or not.  Which harkens back to what I've been saying about Hamas all along - they aren't going away because they already hold power in Gaza by sheer force of arms alone.


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And why do you think that was, if not for pretty much exactly the reason I stated above?

More importantly though, given that there is historical precedent for it resulting in peace, why the **** aren't we hearing a ridiculous amount of pressure on Israel to make a declaration similar to the Downing Street Declaration? You know, if they're the civilised, democratic, non-crazy bastards?  Once that happens, you could more legitimately claim that the ball in in Hamas' court to give up violence. Because then, they would already know what the results of talks might be, and that Israel couldn't go back on their word.

Parts of Israel - significant ones - already have public support for a two-state solution if violence is renounced.  That said, the Israeli government could go a long way toward peace by making a similar announcement as well.  But like I've been saying, nowhere am I absolving Israel of its lack of action or bad policies; I'm merely pointing out that Hamas, and concessions to it, are a long-term destructive force again the entire peace process.  I've been pretty damn consistent here - I support Israel's right to strike into Gaza to stop and retaliate for the rocket attacks, I support a refusal to premise a ceasefire and peace agreement to halt the hostilities on concessions to Hamas (which are what the most recent offers have demanded), I support a two-state solution, and I support the legitimate grievances of the people of Gaza and the West Bank when it comes to Israel failing to negotiate the conditions of a two-state solution in good faith with the parties who are not currently going the extortion route.  I wish Israel and the PA would start the process in earnest by negotiating a two-state solution based in the West Bank, but neither side is showing a willingness to do that.  I would also support Israel and the PA if they jointly decided to eradicate Hamas.
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Offline Luis Dias

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
PA will never decide to "erradicate Hamas". That would be seen as treason by the common palestinian people.

 

Offline MP-Ryan

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
PA will never decide to "erradicate Hamas". That would be seen as treason by the common palestinian people.

Indeed.  As I mentioned before, Abbas and the PA won't even negotiate without Hamas, which is one of the many reasons talks aren't ongoing.
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Offline karajorma

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Re: Goings-on in my neighborhood, you might have heard of them...
I believe in evidence, not conjecture.  And I'm not seeing any evidence of these claims in any of the information you've linked or any of the publicly-available record.

The article I linked to flat out says that the British Government were in talks with the IRA before both ceasefires.


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And once again, the negotiations took place with legitimate political representatives, not the organization doing the bombing.

And I flat out refuse to accept that distinction as being in any way meaningful given that Hamas is both.

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It's a massively important distinction.  The IRA was expressly marginalized and excluded because the talks were conducted between legitimate political representatives, not a government negotiating with the bombers.  It makes all the difference.  The IRA never got concessions out of the UK government - Sinn Fein, who conducted their business peacefully, did.

I think this comment is what makes it pointless trying to continue this conversation. If you really believe this distinction is so important that you can't make analogies with Northern Ireland, I give up.
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