Author Topic: Coronavirus Outbreak  (Read 34826 times)

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Note how if you click "total deaths" rather then just covid-19 deaths, the death count also drops sharply.

Unless June is a magic time where nobody dies, the paragraph the data starts with holds true:
Quote
Note: Provisional death counts are based on death certificate data received and coded by the National Center for Health Statistics as of June 24, 2020. Death counts are delayed and may differ from other published sources (see Technical Notes). Counts will be updated every Wednesday by 5pm. Additional information will be added to this site as available.

Quote from: From the Technical Notes
Provisional counts of deaths are underestimated relative to final counts. This is due to the many steps involved in reporting death certificate data. When a death occurs, a certifier (e.g. physician, medical examiner or coroner) will complete the death certificate with the underlying cause of death and any contributing causes of death. In some cases, laboratory tests or autopsy results may be required to determine the cause of death. Completed death certificate are sent to the state vital records office and then to NCHS for cause of death coding. At NCHS, about 80% of deaths are automatically processed and coded within seconds, but 20% of deaths need to manually coded, or coded by a person. Deaths involving certain conditions such as influenza and pneumonia are more likely to require manual coding than other causes of death. Furthermore, all deaths with COVID-19 are manually coded. Death certificates are typically manually coded within 7 days of receipt, although the coding delay can grow if there is a large increase in the number of deaths. As a result, underestimation of the number of deaths may be greater for certain causes of death than others.

Previous analyses of provisional data completeness from 2015 suggested that mortality data is approximately 27% complete within 2 weeks, 54% complete within 4 weeks, and at least 75% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred (8). Pneumonia deaths are 26% complete within 2 weeks, 52% complete within 4 weeks, and 72% complete within 8 weeks (unpublished). Data timeliness has improved in recent years, and current timeliness is likely higher than published rates.

The total death count drops of becuase not every death has been reported yet. The data you cite mentions this several times throughout the page, and this is further explained in the technical notes.

To further take into account: The very simple notion that you won't die as soon as you're infected with the coronavirus. This should be obvious. A spike in infections like the US is seeing in some states now won't see a spike in deaths until a week or two later.

Check attachment. Unless you believe that the US has managed to chain Thanatos and nobody will now die even as their head lies at their feet :P
« Last Edit: June 26, 2020, 01:38:45 pm by -Joshua- »

 
I wouldn't be surprised if the death rates were lower right now.  New York City had been the epicenter of the outbreak, and they had so many patients that the hospital system became overwhelmed, meaning people who might not have otherwise died were unable to receive treatment.  Now that NYC has things much more under control, those who need hospital or ICU care are better able to receive that care and are less likely to die.

There may be another spike in death rates beginning quite soon as the hospital systems in Arizona and Texas become overwhelmed, owing to their aggressive reopening schedules.

Quote
Are we reaching herd-immunity levels and just not aware of it yet?

Not even close.  Last I heard, herd immunity isn't a reliable protection until >90% of the (surviving) population has actual immunity.  It's why small reductions in the measles vaccination rate led to some nasty outbreaks over the last few years.  It's also why vaccines are generally preferred to letting a virus burn through a population.

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(EDIT: Strange too how the media's focus has shifted from death rates to infections rates - since death rates at this point are no longer a sensational talking point).

:confused:

ABC and NBC's nightly news broadcasts show the number of deaths and the chart showing deaths over time every night.  They didn't stop, just because the death count was leveling off (well, relatively speaking--there's still 1k+ dying each day).  I didn't think they were considered fringe media outlets.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2020, 10:44:33 am by BlueFlames »

 

Offline Mobius

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Here, the death rate has changed a lot. If you take a look at Worldometer's graphics, which are based on official sources, you'd notice how the recovery rate has increased by a stable and growing 30% in the past three months. It's the only statistic so far with a clear and well defined pattern; the others all have ups and downs, and that's exactly what you'd expect with some statistic buzz involved in the process.

I guess it's rather safe to say that any response to Covid-19 is more efficient when hospital systems in a given area are not overwhelmed.
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Gee jr2's posts in this thread have aged like a fine wine.

 

Offline Rhymes

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What do you expect from someone who makes a habit of jumping into a topic completely uninformed to spew complete bull**** and stubbornly dig in when called on it?
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Offline DefCynodont119

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https://i.imgur.com/hZ1JHfZ.mp4

Figured that belonged here.



Serious talk time:

Nevada is still mostly on quarantine, masks mandatory. (finally)

Washoe county is at about just under 3,000 cases as of this writing.

About half of the people I have seen here had been wearing masks since April already.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2020, 11:19:07 pm by DefCynodont119 »
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Offline Dysko

Finally got my antibody test results.
Not even the slightest sign of antibodies was found.
Now I wonder what was the burning lungs feeling I had in March...

Several personal acquaintances of mine were tested positive though, almost all of them asymptomatically.

New daily cases in Italy have been increasing for 5 days straight, however they are still <250 per day (more than 50% of them in Lombardy). Fortunately, most of them are asymptomatic or with mild symptoms only, and ITUs are getting emptier.

Some localized clusters were found (mostly in workplaces were safety measures were ignored), and so far they were quickly contained.

Several regions still require mandatory mask wearing, however even in Lombardy this order is mostly ignored outside buildings (which would be fine if you can keep distancing... but many people do not put their mask on even close to other people).
Even in my workplace sometimes I happen to come across some colleagues going around without masks, even though between March and April we had 3 confirmed cases (one of which spent 1 week in subintensive therapy).
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Offline Su-tehp

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I’m so f*cking pissed at Trump and all his enablers for just giving up on trying to save lives. There will be a reckoning in November.
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Offline karajorma

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I’m so f*cking pissed at Trump and all his enablers for just giving up on trying to save lives. There will be a reckoning in November.

To be honest, I'm not sure there will be. There are lots of people who still support him. And I don't know if people are actually going to turn up to vote him out.
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I maintain that he's gonna be re-elected, I just don't see why he wouldn't.

 

Offline DefCynodont119

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To be fair, if it weren't for the electoral collage he wouldn't of been elected in the first place.

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I don’t think my father has failed to vote for a Republican president (prior to Trump) since he finally cut his hair in the late 70s. He has been a corporate-interests-first republican (lower case “r”) for as long as I can remember. It has been a bone of contention between us, something it was easier to ignore than talk about because we just were not going to ever agree.

He is going to be voting straight-ticket Democrat come November. He’s not the only one.

The Republican Party has sold any possible claims it could make on the moral high ground in favor of defending the indefensible and excusing the inexcusable. If we have to suit up in scuba gear and oxygen tanks, we will vote this piece of **** out of office along with everyone who enabled him.
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Offline 666maslo666

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Situation here in Slovakia. Red = number of active cases. Second wave incoming. We handled the first wave very well but now I fear both people and politicians are getting complacent and fed up with protective measures. I especially think relaxing mandatory quarantine for those coming from abroad was premature and should be reestablished in light of latest numbers, all of which can be traced to recent arrivals. Still no real community spread thankfully..

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Offline Mobius

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When two major issues combine: screenings performed on 70 Africans who arrived in my region via boat have resulted in 26 of them testing positive to Covid-19. People are rioting in the town where they're currently located, saying that "they should get the hell out of here".

The cure for Covid-19 may eventually be found one day, but what about the cure for racism? :banghead:

EDIT: our governor is now threatening to prohibit access to the entire region. The restriction would be applicable to everyone.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2020, 10:40:49 am by Mobius »
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