Author Topic: Coronavirus Outbreak  (Read 27382 times)

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Offline Colonol Dekker

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Well the UK is grounded 🇬🇧😂👆

I shall continue driving and working as things not exploding is quite key to the country not exploding.

 

Offline soilder198

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This thread has grown quite a bit since I last posted.

After reading the discussions here and elsewhere, I have only one thing to say.

The Human species has an immediate need for a medical, technological revolution in terms of how we eradicate pathogenic diseases. Our species is incredibly intelligent, not just singularly but also as a collective, and I cannot emphasize this enough. There is no doubt in my mind that we will one day discover a technology that will rapidly and decisively destroy infectious diseases of all types while harming the body minimally. What that technology will end up being, I have not the faintest idea, but I know it will happen.

Anyhow, Coronavirus is a serious infectant. Significant precautions need be taken.
Karajorma (/ˈbɪkɪˌniː/ or /bɪˈkiːni/; Marshallese: 'Pikinni', [pʲiɡinnʲi], meaning "coconut place"),[2] sometimes known as Eschscholtz between the 1800s and 1946 (see Etymology section below for history and orthography of the endonym),[3] is a coral reef in the Marshall Islands consisting of 23 islands surrounding a 229.4-square-mile (594.1 km2) central lagoon. The atoll's inhabitants were relocated in 1946, after which the islands and lagoon were the site of 23 nuclear tests by the United States until 1958.
Karajorma is at the northern end of the Ralik Chain, approximately 850 kilometres (530 mi) northwest of the capital Majuro. Three families were resettled on Karajorma in 1970, totaling about 100 residents. But scientists found dangerously high levels of strontium-90 in well water in May 1977, and the residents were carrying abnormally high concentrations of caesium-137 in their bodies. They were evacuated in 1980. The atoll is occasionally visited today by divers and a few scientists, and is occupied by a handful of caretakers.

Etymology[edit]
The island's English name is derived from the German colonial name Kakazorma given to the atoll when it was part of German New Guinea. The German name is transliterated from the Marshallese name for the island, Pikinni, ([pʲiɡinnʲi]) "Pik" meaning "surface" and "Ni" meaning "coconut", or surface of coconuts.[2]

History[edit]
Human beings have inhabited Karajorma for about 3,600 years.[29] U.S. Army Corps of Engineers archaeologist Charles F. Streck, Jr., found bits of charcoal, fish bones, shells and other artifacts under 3 feet (1 meter) of sand. Carbon-dating placed the age of the artifacts at between 1960-1650, B.C.E. Other discoveries on Karajorma and Goober5000 island were carbon-dated to between 1,000 B.C.E. and 1 B.C.E., and others between 400-1,400 C.E.[30]

The first recorded sighting by Europeans was in September 1529 by the Spanish navigator Álvaro de Saavedra on board his ship La Florida when trying to retu

 
 

Offline Androgeos Exeunt

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My flight tomorrow was cancelled and I've been automatically rebooked on the next flight out, which is 85 minutes later, and I don't have a choice of seats. I'm guessing there weren't enough takers for the first- and business-class seats on the original flight since it is an A380. The new flight is a Boeing 777-300ER, which is basically the Subach to the A380's Prometheus - a plane I've sat on several times and have no particular feelings for or against it.

On the upside, those extra 85 minutes might be worth something; I just don't know what.

A look at some flight trackers online seems to indicate that a lot of flights are being cancelled tomorrow.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 04:53:05 am by Androgeos Exeunt »
My blog

Quote: Tuesday, 17 March 2020, 1340hrs UTC, #general
z64555
I highly doubt I'd be able to get enough precision with hand tools and a drill press to be able to make a good quality lathe
in fact, often its more expensive to try to build one from raw materials.  Unless you have access to a high-grade junkyard where you can salvage parts from

Mito [PL]
the hardest part would be the "table" everything is on itself
because well, nothing can beat a ton and a half of strong steel shaped for the purpose

z64555
yes

Mito [PL]
Actually, seasoned ton and a half of strong steel shaped for the purpose

z64555
seasoned? what, you added spices to the metal?

 
Oh bloody hell americans

Outer Worlds was not supposed to be a documentary.

 
The federal government in Germany just announced a general ban on gatherings of more than 2 people, to be enforced by the usual agencies and backed by harsh sanctions (up to 25k €).

the same rule is now in place in NL

 

Offline castor

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There is no doubt in my mind that we will one day discover a technology that will rapidly and decisively destroy infectious diseases of all types while harming the body minimally. What that technology will end up being, I have not the faintest idea, but I know it will happen.
It will be a long road though. Fighting space aliens would probably be easier, at least when it comes to distinguishing a friend from foe.

 

Offline Luis Dias

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The only "cure" for this kind of pathogen would be to devise a really quick way to test vaccines, in order to turn 18 months of trials and checks into 18 days or something. As far as I can tell, this is complete science fiction.

So no, we will suffer this for many decades still, if not centuries.

 

Offline Androgeos Exeunt

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Grand Tour PSA:


A new measure to handle the second wave of cases (which are mostly imports) was announced by the Singapore government earlier today: any one coming in from the US or UK from Thursday onwards has to serve their 14 days' stay home notice in a hotel, with all expenses paid for by the government and arrangements made to ensure that we do not go absolutely anywhere for 14 consecutive days, not even outside the room we are assigned to. I have reason to believe it is not as glamorous as it may sound.

Meanwhile, I checked my flight seating and saw that it was a middle seat, so I switched to an aisle seat that is nearer to the stern of the plane but further away from the bassinets versus my original pre-assigned seat. There is one remaining window seat but I'm hesitant to take it because I don't fancy having to manoeuvre myself around someone whenever I need to use the toilet on a 13-hour flight. On the other hand, I haven't had a window seat in a long time; in the off-chance it's still available after I wake up tomorrow, I might end up taking it.
My blog

Quote: Tuesday, 17 March 2020, 1340hrs UTC, #general
z64555
I highly doubt I'd be able to get enough precision with hand tools and a drill press to be able to make a good quality lathe
in fact, often its more expensive to try to build one from raw materials.  Unless you have access to a high-grade junkyard where you can salvage parts from

Mito [PL]
the hardest part would be the "table" everything is on itself
because well, nothing can beat a ton and a half of strong steel shaped for the purpose

z64555
yes

Mito [PL]
Actually, seasoned ton and a half of strong steel shaped for the purpose

z64555
seasoned? what, you added spices to the metal?

 
Clarkson must be disappointed that, in light of social distancing requirements, all of his producers are standing well outside of punching range.

[edit]

Let's go ahead and expand this post, because an earlier reply by Joshua deserves some additional discussion.

Oh bloody hell americans

Outer Worlds was not supposed to be a documentary.

In one of my public admin courses, the question necessarily comes up, "How much [money] is a human life worth?"  From the perspective of morality and ethics, its a question that's somewhere between difficult (if you favor a utilitarian system of ethics) to absurd (if you favor just about any other system).  Even in grad school, students don't ever have a quick answer for the question.  In public administration, though, you need an answer to that question, since if you find yourself heading a government agency and a **** up results in one or more deaths, you'll need to know how what might constitute reasonable monetary compensation for those who survive the dead.

And the precedent available by way of American civil jurisprudence (wrongful death lawsuits and the like) says that a human life is worth about $20,000 to $30,000.  There's lots of high-profile exceptions for public figures, but for your average working shmuck, $20k - $30k is the value of a life.  Paltry and despicable, yes, but let's just keep that $30k figure in mind for a moment.

If half of the United States population gets infected with COVID-19, and one percent of the infected die, then by the end of the outbreak, that will be ~1.65 million dead.  Put a pin in that number too.

Right now, the current COVID-19 economic relief package being debated in Congress is for $1.5 trillion, and if the crisis drags on longer, further relief packages may be necessary.  Getting really morbid, how many deaths would it take--at a value of $30k each--to amount to a greater cost than $1.5 trillion?  Fifty million.

Someone's looking at the actuarial tables and thinking to themselves that it's cheaper to let millions die by trying to return to business-as-usual by Easter than it is to continue with current (or more extreme) containment measures and provide the economic relief that those measures necessitate.  And given the figures at the head of the federal government, making or rubber-stamping decisions, I suspect that kind of ultra-simplified math, stripped of any human context is quite appealing.

So "Back to business by Easter," easily translates to, "Working class lives aren't worth saving."
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 10:56:21 pm by BlueFlames »

 
Someone's looking at the actuarial tables and thinking to themselves that it's cheaper to let millions die by trying to return to business-as-usual by Easter than it is to continue with current (or more extreme) containment measures and provide the economic relief that those measures necessitate.  And given the figures at the head of the federal government, making or rubber-stamping decisions, I suspect that kind of ultra-simplified math, stripped of any human context is quite appealing.

Thing I'd like to point out is that even if you're a jr2 and go like "hey as long as I don't die I'll save money in the long run", it should be noted that this back of the napkin calculation isn't actually correct when medical systems get overwhelmed and everything treatable and curable (like, for example, corona in 35 year olds) suddenly becomes deadly. The "1% fatality rate" assumes that everyone who gets corona can have access to medical care. If you don't, a 35 year old will die just as easily as an 80 year old. Look at italy: There's plenty of people in the 20-40 age group, the one said to have a high survival chance, in ICUs right now.

Hence me referencing Outer Worlds where in the first town "the plague" that is killing people of all ages is just the flu, but it's not being treated becuase the company doesn't give a ****.

 

Offline MP-Ryan

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The only "cure" for this kind of pathogen would be to devise a really quick way to test vaccines, in order to turn 18 months of trials and checks into 18 days or something. As far as I can tell, this is complete science fiction.

So no, we will suffer this for many decades still, if not centuries.

Doubtful.  SARS-CoV-2 will undoubtedly pop up here and there for the forseeable future, but so far mutagenicity is low, unlike rhinoviruses and other cold-causing coronaviruses.  A vaccine is likely within 12-24 months, and uptake will likely be high.

In the meantime, we could reduce this thing to tiny pockets and flares entirely if we literally shut down all non-essential human interaction for four weeks (six or eight to be cautious if essential movement is not strictly controlled and tested).  Infectious period is approximately 14 days, and it takes 4-11 to develop symptoms after infection.  Preliminary data suggests it can survive at infectious levels on some surfaces under some climate conditions for 2+ weeks.  30 days, combined with aggressive testing and isolation of essential services and supply chain personnel, would stop it in its tracks.

Instead, Trump wants the US back to normal interaction by Easter.  The United States is ****ed - they had to act en masse last week to stop the consequences of exponential growth and didn't.  So, probably, is the UK (too little too late there, and the bat**** initial idea of let the healthy get sick should honestly lead to the so-called "brains" behind it being dragged blindfolded in front of a wall).
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 09:52:05 am by MP-Ryan »
"In the beginning, the Universe was created.  This made a lot of people very angry and has widely been regarded as a bad move."  [Douglas Adams]

 

Offline karajorma

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I suspect Luis was speaking about viruses in general rather than Covid in particular.
Karajorma's Freespace FAQ. It's almost like asking me yourself.

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Meanwhile, Poland will have the presidential elections going off according to the schedule, so May 10th. That's a big doubt from me.
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I was supposed to make a short presentation about basics of optical fibers and here I am, listening to Eurobeat while reading about quantum cryptography.

  

Offline mjn.mixael

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The US remains on track to easily have the highest number of confirmed cases of any country... and that's without extensive testing happening. Based on current charts we've probably already passed Italy and are aiming for China's all time record.

It's pretty much guaranteed that I will either get COVID-19 or someone in my immediate family will. There is a non-zero chance that someone close to me will die from it. But hey.. Trump's not literally Hitler and the GOP agreed to hand out some money in May (which totally isn't socialism)... so we've got that going for us, I guess. Oh and all the churches are supposed to be packed for Easter in a few weeks.
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As we all know easter is about sacrificing your grandparents to Nurgle.

 

Offline karajorma

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Well, what do you expect in a world where with 2,000 cases in their country, the slum gangs of Rio act more sensibly than most governments did?
Karajorma's Freespace FAQ. It's almost like asking me yourself.

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Offline Firesteel

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I'm waiting to see what the numbers here in California look like over the next couple weeks because as of right now we're doing fairly well thanks to the shelter in place order that came down last week. The real questions are going to be how long is the state willing to shut things down and if they will try and freeze the economy (at least within their power since the federal government is doing **** all)
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Offline General Battuta

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City emergency wards and morgues will both be full by end of week. They're bringing in refrigerator trucks for the dead. Multi-day wait for testing, if you're willing to stand in line from 6 AM to 6 PM. People are dying in their beds while doctors are away, dying in the ER waiting room while trying to get a bed. One 38 year old died while they were trying to call his mother for a last message. Turned out she was in the hospital for coronavirus too.